Unit 6 – Probabilities

Experimental vs Theoretical
 LO: To understand the difference between
experimental and theoretical probability and
calculate the expected number of events
Starter 1 – Dice rolls
Have a go at rolling it 48 times
Starter 2 – Rock, Paper, Scissors
Can you make a prediction of how many games you would win if
you played 20 games?

Play 20 games with your partner and record who wins each
game?
 40
games

The first 5 games You will win

Now try it with 40 games and record your results.

Remember / Understand To understand what experimental
and theoretical probability is
Analyse/ Apply To be able to apply knowledge to
be able to use calculate the
expected number of events
Evaluate/ Create To be able to solve problems with
experimental probability
Extension To apply knowledge of different
Mathematical concepts to solve
challenges.
 Can we have 3 students results for the first record

Can we calculate the probability based of these results

THIS IS THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY!!!

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY

You calculated the probability based upon an experiment

In theory though. What should have happened?

Why would we expect that?

THIS IS THE THEORETICAL PROBABILITY!

 Do you agree?

If I flip a coin twice I must get

one tails & one heads.

If I roll a dice 6 times, I will

definitely get a 5.
 Do you agree?

If I flip a coin twice I must get

one tails & one heads.

Possible outcomes: Tails then Tails There are 4 equally likely outcomes.

Tails then Heads The probability of 1 tails & 1 heads

is 2 out of 4.
Heads then Tails
2 1
Heads then Heads =
4 2
 Do you agree?

If I roll a dice 6 times, I will

definitely get a 5.

1
The probability of rolling a 5 is
6

A sixth of the times we roll the dice we expect a 5.

After 6 rolls, we expect to roll a 5,

but Peter might be unlucky and roll 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, or 6, 3, 4, 6, 2, 2.

Expecting something to happen does not mean it actually will!

DEMO Expectation
If we roll the dice 12 times,
how many times do we expect to score a 2?

1
P(2) =
6
Number of trials = 12

1
× 12 = 2 times
6
DEMO Expectation
We randomly pick a cube then replace it.
If we make 60 picks,
how many times do we expect to pick a red cube?

2
P(Red) =
3
Number of trials = 60

2
× 60 = 40 times
3
DEMO Expectation YOUR TURN
We randomly pick a cube then replace it. We randomly pick a cube then replace it.
If we make 60 picks, If we make 20 picks,
how many times do we expect to pick a red cube? how many times do we expect to pick a red cube?

2 1
P(Red) = P(Red) =
3 4
Number of trials = 60 Number of trials = 20

2 1
× 60 = 40 times × 20 = 5 times
3 4
DEMO Expectation YOUR TURN
We randomly pick a cube then replace it. We randomly pick a cube then replace it.
If we make 60 picks, If we make 60 picks,
how many times do we expect to pick a red cube? how many times do we expect to pick a red cube?

2 3
P(Red) = P(Red) =
3 5
Number of trials = 60 Number of trials = 60

2 3
× 60 = 40 times × 60 = 36 times
3 5
Summary
How can we find the probability of an event?
1. We might just know! 2. We can do an experiment and count
outcomes

We could throw the dice 100 times for

For a fair die, we know example, and count how many times we
that the probability of see each outcome.
1
each outcome is , by
6
definition of it being a Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
fair die.
Count 27 13 10 30 15 5
27 13 10 30 15 5
R.F.
100 100 100 ?
100 100 100

This is known as a: This is known as an:

Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability
When we know the underlying Also known as the relative frequency , it is
probability of an ?
event. a probability based on observing counts.
?
𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑝 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
 Progress Check
1) Complete the following questions on your mini –
whiteboards

2)Once finished show me and check your answers using the

Powerpoint

3)Any issues raise your hand and I will come round and help
 The dice is rolled 18 times. The coin if flipped 38 times.
How many 5s do we expect? How many tails do we expect?

The dice is rolled 40 times. The spinner is spun 100 times.

How many 7s do we expect? How many 2s do we expect?

We randomly pick a cube &

The spinner is spun 60 times. replace it.
How many 1s do we expect? We do this 80 times.
How many red cubes
do we expect to pick?
 The dice is rolled 18 times. The coin if flipped 38 times.
How many 5s do we expect? How many tails do we expect?

1 1
× 18 = 3 × 38 = 19
6 2
The dice is rolled 40 times. The spinner is spun 100 times.
How many 7s do we expect? How many 2s do we expect?

1 1
× 40 = 5 × 100 = 25
8 4
We randomly pick a cube &
The spinner is spun 60 times. replace it.
How many 1s do we expect? We do this 80 times.
How many red cubes
1 do we expect to pick?
× 60 = 12 2
5 × 80 = 32
5
Remember/ Understand
Apply/ Analyse
 Flipping a fair coin:
A How many tails in 500 flips? 90
Rolling a fair dice:
B How many 6s in 300 rolls? 70
Rolling a fair dice:
C How many 3s in 420 rolls? 160
Picking a card:
D How many Kings in 130 picks? 75
Picking a card:
E How many picture cards in 390 picks? 60
In a bag of 16 blue & 24 green buttons:
F How many blue buttons in 500 picks? 250
In a bag of 13 yellow, 37 blue &
G 20 black buttons: 140
How many black buttons in 560 picks?
In a bag of 14 red, 25 white &
H 21 green buttons: How many red 50
or green buttons in 240 picks?
In a TV factory: P(no fault) = 0.98
I How many faulty TVs out of 3000? 200
Rolling a biased dice:
J P(2, 3, 4, 5 or 6) = 0.85. 10
How many 1s in 500 rolls?
 Flipping a fair coin:
90 E
A How many tails in 500 flips?
Rolling a fair dice:
Answers
B How many 6s in 300 rolls? 70 C
Rolling a fair dice:
C How many 3s in 420 rolls? 160 G
Picking a card:
D How many Kings in 130 picks? 75 J
Picking a card:
E How many picture cards in 390 picks? 60 I
In a bag of 16 blue & 24 green buttons:
F How many blue buttons in 500 picks? 250 A
In a bag of 13 yellow, 37 blue &
G 20 black buttons: 140 H
How many black buttons in 560 picks?
In a bag of 14 red, 25 white &
H 21 green buttons: How many red 50 B
or green buttons in 240 picks?
In a TV factory: P(no fault) = 0.98
I How many faulty TVs out of 3000? 200 F
Rolling a biased dice:
J P(2, 3, 4, 5 or 6) = 0.85. 10 D
How many 1s in 500 rolls?
Evaluate/ Create
 Exercise 6 (on your sheet)
Dr Laurie throws a fair die 600 times,
1 An unfair die is rolled 80 times and the following 3
and sees 90 ones.
counts are observed.

a) Determine the relative frequency of each a) Calculate the relative frequency

outcome. of throwing a 1.
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 90 / 600 = 0.15 ?
b) Explain how Laurie can make the
Count 20 10 8 4 10 28
R.F. 0.25 0.125 0.1 ? 0.05 0.125 0.35 relative frequency closer to a
b) Dr Bob claims that the theoretical probability sixth.
of rolling a 3 is 0.095. Is Dr Bob correct? ?
Throw the die more times.
He is probably correct, as the experimental
The table below shows the
?
probability/relative frequency is close to the
theoretical probability.
4
probabilities of winning different
prizes in the gameshow “I’m a
Tiffinian, Get Me Outta Here!”. 160
2 An unfair coin has a probability of heads 0.68. I Tiffin students appear on the show.
throw the coin 75 times. How many tails do I
expect to see? Estimate how many cuddly toys will
P(T) = 1 – 0.68 = 0.32 be won.
0.32 x 75 = 24 ? Prize Cockroach Cuddly Toy Maths Skip Next
Smoothie Textbook Landmark
Prob 0.37 x 0.18 2x

x = (1 – 0.37 – 0.18)/3 = 0.15

?
0.15 x 160 = 24 cuddly toys
Exercise 6 (on your sheet)
A six-sided unfair die is thrown n times, I throw a fair coin some number of times and the
5 7 relative frequency of Heads is 0.45. I throw the
and the relative frequencies of each
outcome are 0.12, 0.2, 0.36, 0.08, 0.08 and coin a few more times and the relative frequency
is now equal to the theoretical probability. What
0.16 respectively. What is the minimum is the minimum number of times the coin was
value of n? thrown?

All the relative frequencies are multiples If relative frequency is 0.45 = 9/20, the
of 0.04 = 1/25. Thus the die was known minimum number of times the coin was thrown
? is 20. If we threw two heads after this, the new
some multiple of 25 times, the minimum
being 25.
?
relative frequency would be 11/22 = 0.5 (i.e. the
theoretical probability)
Thus the minimum number of throws is 22.
6 A spin a spinner with sectors A, B and C
200 times. I see twice as many Bs as As I throw an unfair coin n times and the relative
8
and 40 more Cs than As. Calculate the frequency of Heads is 0.35. I throw the coin 10
relative frequency of spinning a C. more times, all of which are Heads (just by luck),
and the relative frequency rises to 0.48.
Counts are x, 2x and x + 40 Determine n.
[Hint: Make the number of heads after the first throws
Thus x + 2x + x + 40 = 200
?
4x + 40 = 200. Solving, x = 40.
say , then form some equations]

Relative frequency = 80 / 200 = 0.4. k/n = 0.35, which we can write as k = 0.35n.
(k+10)/(n+10) = 0.48, which we can rewrite as
?
k = 0.48n – 5.2 (i.e. by making k the subject)
Thus 0.35n = 0.48n – 5.2. Solving, n = 40.
If finished Dr Frost exam Questions E139
Plenary – In your books