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Opinion

China may need to adjust its approach toward SpaceX

Chengxin Zhang June 24, 2024

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There’s no doubt that SpaceX has achieved great success since it started up in 2002. Often
described as a game-changer, SpaceX is now more or less reshaping the world aerospace industry.
Under the intensifying China-United States competition, the comparison between SpaceX and
China’s aerospace industry has become a heated issue. As is known, the development of China’s
aerospace industry is dominated by the state. No wonder some assert that the private sector is more
efficient than the state apparatus when they comment on the progress made by SpaceX. It’s worth
noting that even China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the largest state-
run aerospace company of China, has officially acknowledged that it’s “larger in size but weaker in
capabilities” compared to SpaceX, asks practitioners to “always keep humble” and “resolutely
overcome pride and complacency.” CASC is considered synonymous with China’s aerospace
industry, so such a statement is an acknowledgment of the gap between China’s aerospace industry
and SpaceX. And this year, China Central Television cited SpaceX when it highlighted the necessity
of developing the commercial aerospace industry.

However, it is essential to consider a broader perspective on the rise of such an aerospace giant
under the current geopolitical circumstance, instead of simply “learning from it in modesty.” In other
words, how could China develop a more pragmatic view on SpaceX?

Initially, is it too hasty for CASC to draw this conclusion? Though SpaceX excels in developing launch
vehicles, the field of aerospace encompasses a vast array of systemic engineering challenges of
which launch vehicle development is only one component. It’s superficial to evaluate the overall
strength of a space program based solely on one or few facets.

Picture this: if launch vehicle capacity were the sole determining factor for aerospace missions,
China would have been able to collect samples from the far side of the moon and even land on Mars
as early as the 1990s. Both lunar probe Chang’e 6 and Mars probe Tianwen-1 are no more than 8.2
tons, while launch vehicle Long March 2E, which came into service in 1990, is able to carry 9 tons of
goods. However, the fact is that space missions are much more complex beyond the challenges of
just reaching orbit. After entering the transfer orbit, the launch vehicle will separate from a probe. But
there’s still a long way to go before the ultimate destination, and that part of a mission requires
support from navigation devices, deep-space communication networks, high-precision radars,
energy supply units, spacecraft attitude control systems, variable thrust engines, obstacle avoidance
algorithms and so on. Does SpaceX master all of these technologies? The fact is that SpaceX, with
an ambition of Mars colonization, has not yet flown beyond the earth orbits while China has already
succeeded in orbiting, landing on and patrolling both the moon and Mars. And those Mars landing
missions that achieved final success in the U.S., from Opportunity in 2004 to Perseverance in 2020,
were all led by NASA and conducted by thousands of suppliers and research institutes at home and
abroad, not by a single SpaceX alone.

Even within earth orbits, SpaceX is not an undisputed leader. Can SpaceX independently build and
operate a space station of the third-generation technical standards like China? The answer is no. Of
course, SpaceX owns Starlink, the largest low-orbit satellite constellation for high-speed internet
service around the world. But China also maintains the largest global navigation satellite system.

Whether SpaceX outperforms China’s aerospace industry is a debatable issue, because SpaceX does
not have the same comprehensive technical and industrial system as a national program. Only when
comparing with the entirety of the U.S. space program can we definitely say China’s aerospace
industry is “larger in size but weaker in capabilities.”

More crucially, against the background of escalating China-U.S. conflict, what practical significance
does SpaceX hold for China? In essence, SpaceX is at least a passive spokesperson of U.S. interests,
which means the development of SpaceX fails to directly contribute to China’s welfare.

Though China may be open to space cooperations with various organizations, including SpaceX,
long-arm jurisdiction can easily ruin the prospect of cooperation. From the Cox Report to the Wolf
Amendment, Washington consistently endeavored to contain the development of China’s aerospace
industry by stifling its opportunities for international cooperation as much as possible. Though the
Wolf Amendment only prohibits space cooperations between U.S. governmental agencies like NASA
and their Chinese counterparts or China-affiliated entities, and private sectors like SpaceX are not
included, effective cooperation between SpaceX and China remains impossible due to additional
impediments imposed by the White House such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations,
Export Administration Regulations and Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. Any
products, services or technologies output to China will be subject to rigorous scrutiny, and it’s highly
probable that relevant transactions won’t be finalized.

The situation would still remain under control if SpaceX’s operation didn’t extend beyond commercial
activities. Yet SpaceX is not only involved in U.S. intervention on the regional order but also threatens
China’s national security and development interests.
SpaceX has cooperated with the U.S. military multiple times. In March 2022, Starlink satellites
transmitted data to F35A stealth fighters of the U.S. Air Force at a speed of 160 Mbps in a test, which
is 30 times faster than the conventional connection method. And Starlink has engaged in intelligence
transmission for the Ukrainian army, enhanced the precision of striking Russian troops in the ongoing
Ukraine war. And there’s the launch of Starshield, the military variation of Starlink at the end of 2022.
Recently, the Pentagon has been coordinating with SpaceX to blunt Russia’s unauthorized use of
Starlink internet terminals. Given the U.S.’s designation of China as its greatest rival, it’s quite
possible that Starlink will similarly be used for military purposes against China.

Certainly, the public is entitled to debate the nature of the war and hold the belief that SpaceX is
assisting the party being invaded by Russia, but acts that threaten and undermine the security of
other countries’ space assets are explicitly prohibited by relevant international laws. Unfortunately, in
2021, Starlink satellites even approached China’s space station at high speed more than once, posing
dangers to the astronauts on board. China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that those satellites
performed continuous orbital maneuvers with unspecified intentions, prompting the space station to
undertake preventive collision avoidance measures. The Outer Space Treaty regulates that states
party to the Treaty shall immediately inform other state parties to the Treaty or U.N. Secretary
General of any phenomena they discover in outer space which could constitute a danger to the life
or health of astronauts. But SpaceX and other U.S. agencies neither gave a prior notification nor
provided an explanation for these abnormal maneuvers. It’s hard to imagine how catastrophic the
consequences of such a collision would be. Damaging the station, one of the most important national
assets, would absolutely be a destructive blow to China’s aerospace program. More risk management
and pre-warning should be imposed on this company.

It may be prudent for China to adopt an approach toward SpaceX characterized by strategic despise
and tactical emphasis. For China’s aerospace sector, it’s necessary to evaluate SpaceX’s capabilities
in a more objective manner, to avoid both underestimation and overestimation, and then draw more
accurate comparisons to itself. Meanwhile, China should clearly define its strategic priorities while
taking the entire U.S. aerospace industry as its primary reference frame, as a target for catching up,
rather than allowing SpaceX to disrupt its overall plans. What’s more, China must make better sense
of SpaceX’s limitations in the broader geopolitical context, as well as the zero-sum relationship
between China and the U.S.

Chengxin Zhang is a researcher and doctoral candidate specializing in international political

economics. His research concentrates on international competition and cooperation across various
industrial sectors, including aerospace and its influence on the global order. He is affiliated with the
School of Politics and International Relations at Lanzhou University, China, and holds a Master’s
degree in International Relations from Jinan University, China.

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Chengxin Zhang

Chengxin Zhang is a researcher and doctoral candidate specializing in international political

economics. His research concentrates on international competition and cooperation across various
industrial sectors, including aerospace and its influence on...
More by Chengxin Zhang

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Mike Reznikov − ⚑
an hour ago

Omg, 🤣🤣🤣🤣

0 0 Reply Share ›

A
amazzy − ⚑
an hour ago

Nice propaganda. Here's the fact: SpaceX is an American company. There is an entire American space ecosystem
that is developing the technology needed to go to mars and stay. This is all happening because they're betting on
spacex developing the launch capability! Getting there is the fundamental prerequisite of all this happening and why
would Elon waste resources on any of it considering by the time starship is ready half of the problems could already
be solved.

Did you know where NASAs early Mars orbiters were pointed to take pictures determined by a small nasa
subcontractor who built the optics system? Or that several of these later orbiters were built entirely by Lockheed
Martin? American space has never been entirely one entity- that's why china will fail to innovate, and why they still
need the US to inspire them because their central directive is still "quick, figure out how they're doing it". And not to
mention, built on the back of IP theft. I bet it's been difficult to steal from spacex, considering elons background and
the overall lean nature of the company that doesn't include a lot of nonsense people with access to the CAD files.

This reeks of being bought and paid for by China, very obviously, and if it wasn't, the author needs to reflect on his or
her views and why they're living with this worldview, because if they're doing it for free, news flash: most of your
compatriots are being paid to do so!

0 0 Reply Share ›

R
Rob Coops − ⚑
3 hours ago

Sorry but I think the author has confused the mission goals of china's space program and that of SpaceX. On the one
end the goal is research keeping up with the Americans and the demands of the domestic research requirements. On
the other end SpaceX who's goal is to colonize Mars that is a very very expensive endeavor this SpaceX provides
what it needs to the global market to generate the cash flow required to fund their ambitious goals.

Sure china cannot keep up with the development processes and speed on the SpaceX side. The fact of the matter is
that SpaceX is using enterprise methodologies to both push for efficiency and speed while minimizing cost.
look at their rocket engine design when china or nasa for that matter finish a rocket design and sent it to space they
are done and it will remain the same for many decades to come. SpaceX finished the raptor and continued to evolve
it to become simpler more powerful and more reliable while also making it easier and cheaper to produce.

The capabilities of the Chinese space agency are at the moment not (yet) required for SpaceXs goals. When they get
closer they will either develop and iteratively improve those capabilities or use what is already in place thanks to the
likes of nasa, roscosmos and so on...

Id argue that SpaceX is the first space operation that is viable in the real world and without massive government
subsidies. Sure they will use the government money when it's handed out but they do not absolutely require it it just
helps them accelerate their progress and gives them access to space infrastructure and knowledge that they
otherwise would have to develop on their own slowing their progress even further.

0 0 Reply Share ›

Z
Zhao Zhang − ⚑
15 hours ago

SpaceX is just a space UBER lol, it is nothing without the support of NASA lmao

1 3 Reply Share ›

A
amazzy > Zhao Zhang − ⚑
an hour ago

Most of spacex's money is already coming from starlink. I won't debate that they wouldn't exist without
nasa as they were saved very early by a nasa contract... but these days? Not so much. Most of their
launches are starlink on behalf of starlink- a project that directly utilizes their ability to run at a high launch
cadence.

0 0 Reply Share ›
 David − ⚑
19 hours ago

"China may need to adjust its approach toward SpaceX"

Such as finding a way to steal it's tech?

This article is nothing but a piece of chinese fecal matter and nothing more.

3 0 Reply Share ›

A
Alex > David − ⚑
4 hours ago

Your fecal comment is filled with sour taste. I hope you understand there's nothing worth sharing even less
stealing from your backwardness. Get your astronauts back safely first.

0 2 Reply Share ›

David > Alex 4 hours ago edited − ⚑

Glad to hear you enjoy the taste!! Bon appetite!!!

1 0 Reply Share ›

Russ Reed − ⚑
21 hours ago

What an interesting and informative article by Chengxin Zhang. The alternative perspective, seen thru China's eyes
really opens up new channels of consideration. Good Job Mr. Zhang.

1 6 Reply Share ›

David > Russ Reed − ⚑

18 hours ago

It's time to pull your head out....

1 0 Reply Share ›

A
Alex > David − ⚑
4 hours ago

You should do it quickly before you suffocate your little pinhead down there.

0 2 Reply Share ›

M
Michal Faraday − ⚑
a day ago

I don't think Mr. Zhang understands that Space X is a for-profit company while China is a country. Comaprrisons in
this Op-ed really don' t make sense.

8 1 Reply Share ›

P
publiusr > Michal Faraday 12 hours ago
− ⚑
China wants a NACA type element, so they look at winged alternatives Musk isn't interested in.

0 1 Reply Share ›

N
next bubble − ⚑
a day ago

Maybe while China is competing with SpaceX, they can learn to stop dropping space booster debris on Chinese
citizens:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/n...

9 0 Reply Share ›

A
Alex > next bubble
− ⚑
4 hours ago

Maybe you should find out that piece of junk that fell into Texas from SpaceX

0 2 Reply Share ›

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