CE3013 Engineering Hydrology

Lecture Note 5-1 Intake: 2021 Intake - Semester 4

Module: CE3013 Engineering
Hydrological Analysis Hydrology

Prof. R. L. H. L. Rajapakse
Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Group
Department of Civil Engineering

January 2024
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.1 Hydrologic Models and Classification based on
Randomness
Deterministic models/approaches (e.g. Rainfall Runoff Analysis)
▪ Analysis of hydrological processes using deterministic approaches
▪ Hydrological parameters are based on physical relations of the various
components of the hydrologic cycle.
▪ Do not consider randomness; a given input produces the same output.
▪ Therefore, the outcome can be predicted in advance.
Stochastic models/approaches (e.g. Flood Frequency Analysis)
▪ Probabilistic description and modeling of hydrologic phenomena
▪ Statistical analysis of hydrologic data.

Why Statistical Methods are required in Hydrology?

- To better understand behavioural characteristics and distribution of a data series

Why Probabilistic/Random Methods are required in Hydrology?

- To address the randomness of occurrence: When, Where, and How much? 10
How often, Where, and How much?
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.2 Application of Statistics and Probability in
Precipitation and Flood Frequency Analysis
Statistical Methods in Hydrology
Application of statistics: General stats (Mean, Standard Deviation, Variance, Skewness, etc.)
Flood Frequency Analysis
Water resources systems must be planned and designed for future events for which no exact
time of occurrences can be predicted. Therefore, hydrologists must provide a statement of
probability that precipitation events/streamflow or other hydrologic factors will equal or exceed
a per-specified particular value. In most cases absolute control of floods or droughts are
impossible and many hydrologic processes are so complex that they can be interpreted and
explained only in a probabilistic sense. In that case, Methods of Statistical Analysis provide
ways to: i). reduce and summarize observed data, ii). present information in precise and
meaningful form, iii). determine the underlying characteristics of the observed phenomena
and, iv). make predictions concerning future behavior.
The Design Flood which is also known as the Inflow Design Flood for a hydraulic structure is
the flood adopted for design purposes and may also be defined in a number of ways.
Approaches - Deterministic hydrology => Unit hydrograph methods
- Stochastic/Statistical hydrology => Based on laws of probability and statistics
- Element of CHANCE (RANDOMNESS) is considered. 11
Ex. Flood frequency analyses, Risk analyses, Time series analyses (Time sequencing)
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.2 Application of Statistics and Probability in
Precipitation and Flood Frequency Analysis

Preface to Hydrological Statistics: Choice of Design Flood

Inflow Design Flood or Design Peak Discharge of a structure, depending on its importance or
risk involved, may be chosen from either one of the following:
1). Measured/Observed Series (Long term data, i.e. for 25, 50, 100 years, etc., is required)
2). Empirical Methods
• Flood of a specific return period, Q = f(A)
- Dicken’s Formula (Q= CD A¾) These methods basically
- Rational Formula (Q=CiA) deterministic (but the Randomness
- Unit Hydrograph (UH) Methods is introduced with design RT)

3). Statistical Methods

• Design Return Period Flood (RT) These methods are based on
• Standard Project Flood (SPF) Statistical/Stochastic/
• Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) 12
Randomness concepts
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
a). Probability
What is Probability (of Occurrence)?
▪ A measure of how likely an event will occur => Whenever we are unsure about
the outcome of an event, we can talk about the probabilities of certain outcomes
=> How likely they are.

▪ A number expressing the ratio of favorable outcome to the all possible outcomes

▪ It is expressed as a number in the range from 0 and 1, or, using percentage

notation, in the range from 0% to 100%. Event

▪ Probability is usually represented as P(.)

• P (Getting a club from a deck of playing cards)

= 13/52 = 0.25 = 25 %
13
• P (Getting a 3 after rolling a dice) = 1/6
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
b). Random Variable
What is a Random Variable?
▪ Random variable: A quantity used to represent probabilistic uncertainty

• Incremental precipitation

• Instantaneous streamflow

• Wind velocity

▪ Random variable (X) is described by a probability distribution

▪ Probability distribution is a set of probabilities associated with the values

in a random variable’s sample space

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
c). Sampling Terminology
▪ Sample: A finite set of observations x1, x2,….., xn of the random variable (sample
readings or measurements)
• A sample comes from a hypothetical infinite population possessing constant
statistical properties
▪ Sample space: Set of possible samples that can be drawn from a population
▪ Event: Subset of a sample space

◼ Example
• Population: Streamflow
• Sample space: Instantaneous streamflow, Annual maximum streamflow, Daily
average streamflow
• Sample: 100 observations of annual maximum streamflow
• Event (Selected): Daily average streamflow > 100 cfs 15
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
d). Types of Sampling

How do you prepare/collect the sample?

▪ Random sampling: The likelihood of selection of each member of the population is equal
• Pick any streamflow value from a population

▪ Stratified sampling: Population is divided into groups, and then a random sampling is used
• Pick a streamflow value from annual maximum series

▪ Uniform sampling: Data are selected such that the points are uniformly far apart in time or space
• Pick streamflow values measured on Monday midnight

▪ Convenience sampling: Data are collected according to the convenience of experimenter

• Pick streamflow during summer

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
e). Descriptive/Summary Statistics
Probability Density Function
Also called descriptive statistics
If x1, x2, …xn is a sample then:

1 n
Mean X =  xi m for population
n i =1

 (xi − X )
1 n
Variance S =
2
s2 for population
n − 1 i =1

Standard deviation S = S2 s for population

Geometric visualisation
of the mode, median
and mean of an
S
Coefficient of variation CV = arbitrary probability
X density function

Also included in summary statistics are Median, Mode, Skewness, 17

Correlation coefficient, etc.
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
f). Statistical Analysis of Mean

o Descriptive statistics summarize and organize

characteristics of a data set so that its Distribution,
Central tendency, and Dispersion can be recognized.
o A data set is a collection of responses or
observations from a sample or entire population.
▪ Temporal Mean (i.e. Average)
Dispersion
• Average annual rainfall Mean
• Mean daily streamflow

▪ Spatial Mean
• Mean areal precipitation

▪ Standard Deviation and Variance

• A measure of how dispersed the data is in
relation to the mean 18
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
f). Statistical Analysis of Mean Presentation of Statistical Data (Graphical Form)
Mean alone is Not Adequate? What is the PROBLEM with Mean? Isn’t it a good indicator?
Let’s take this example: 3+3=6
2+4=6
1+5=6
Mean = 3 for all cases
=> However, it cannot give an idea about the data
range/ distribution, thus more descriptive parameters
are required to understand your data set

Density function for a Normal

distribution

Location or Distribution data

 Are the Mean and Median same?

 In this example and for any other data sets?
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
g). Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Skewness

Normal Distribution

▪ Standard deviation (or σ) is a measure of how dispersed the data is in relation to the mean.
▪ A normal distribution is a type of continuous probability distribution in which most data points cluster
toward the middle of the range, while the rest taper off symmetrically toward either extreme.
▪ Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of a distribution. A distribution is asymmetrical when its
left and right side are not mirror images. A distribution can have right (or positive), left (or negative),
or zero skewness (Normal distribution).
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
h). Graphical Display of Data
▪ A graphical or graph-based approach allows for a comprehensible interpretation of flood
dynamics based on historical data.
▪ This method proves to be a useful tool to gain insight in a flood event or a series of events.
▪ Graphical representation helps to identify and locate entities within the data set (floods,
droughts, etc.) and describe their evolution throughout the time series.
▪ The different approaches under graphical representation are:
• Time Series Plots
A time series chart/graph/plot is a data visualization tool that
illustrates data points at successive intervals of time and can be
used to visualize trends in counts or numerical values over time.
Use of Log axis for y-axis ? What are the benefits ?

• Histograms/Frequency Distribution Plots

A histogram is a graphical display of data using bars of different
heights. In a histogram, each bar groups numbers into ranges.
Taller bars show that more data falls in that range. A histogram
displays the shape and spread of continuous sample data.
Dividing the number of occurrences with the total number of points
will give Probability Mass Function
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
h). Graphical Display of Data
▪ A graphical or graph-based approach allows for a comprehensible interpretation of flood
dynamics based on historical data.
▪ This method proves to be a useful tool to gain insight in a flood event or a series of events.
▪ Graphical representation helps to identify and locate entities within the data set (floods,
droughts, etc.) and describe their evolution throughout the time series.
▪ The different approaches under graphical representation are:
• Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF)
This is used to describe the probability distribution of
random variables and obtained by summing up the
probability density function and getting the cumulative
probability for a random variable.
• Flow Duration Curves (FDC)
This is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the
percent of time specified discharges were equaled or
exceeded during a given period. It combines in one curve
the flow characteristics of a stream throughout the range
of discharge, without regard to the sequence of occurrence.
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
h). Graphical Display of Data
Time Series Plot & Histogram/Frequency Fistribution

Trend

Mean

How do you plot the histogram ?

 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
h). Graphical Display of Data
Probability Density Function (PDF)
The PDF and CDF gives a complete description of the probability distribution of a random variable.

Probability Density Function of a Normal Distribution N(0, σ2) Boxplot and Probability Density Function
of a Normal Distribution N(0, σ2)

How do you interpret the PDF and CDF?

 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
h). Graphical Display of Data
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
Cumulate the PDF to produce the associated CDF.
CDF describes the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to specified value of x.

1 P (Q ≤ 50,000) = 0.8
.
0.8
P (Q ≤ 25,000) = 0.4
Probability

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Annual m ax flow (103 cfs)

25
How do you produce and interpret the CDF?
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.3 Additional Definitions
h). Graphical Display of Data
Probability Density Function (PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Continuous form of probability mass function is called probability density function (PDF).
PDF is the first derivative of a cumulative distribution function.
▪ How do you plot the PDF and CDF?
▪ What is represented by the area under PDF probability?
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.4 Data Requirements in Hydrology
- Complete data sets (Missing data => Problematic; Need replacing)
- Reliability (Accuracy)
Assumption that the sample come
- Representative (Sufficiently long length of record) from the same population (data set)
- Homogeneous (Question of stationarity; E.g. Climate Change => Is the past a
good indicator of future ?
- Data checking is an essential step in Hydrological Analysis
5.1.5 Hydrologic Data Series/Timeseries
River/Streamflow (Discharge) Hydrograph

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5.1.4 Hydrologic Data Series/Timeseries

Complete duration series (Fig. a)

- All available data

Partial duration series

- Values greater than a predefined base value

Annual exceedance series (Fig. b)

- If the base value is selected so that the
number of values in the series is equal to the
number of years of the record, then the series is
called annual exceedance series

Extreme value series

- Includes the largest or smallest values
occurring in each of the equally-long time
intervals of the record

Annual series
- If the time interval length is taken as one year,
then the extreme value series is called an annual
series
- Annual Maximum Series (Fig. c)
- If the largest annual values are selected
- Annual Minimum Series 28
- If the smallest annual values are selected
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.5 Concept of Return Period
Return Period, also known as Recurrence Interval or Repeat Interval, is an average time or an
estimated average time between events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or river
discharge flows of similar magnitude to occur.
Therefore, Return Period describes the expected (mean) time (usually in years) between the
exceedance (or equaling) of a particular extreme threshold.
It is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data over an extended period and is
used usually for risk analysis.

Flood hazard map showing

inundation extent for
different return periods
(text in brackets indicate
the degree of hazard
based on chance of
occurrence)
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.5 Concept of Return Period
Return Period – This is the average time
period within which an event of a given
magnitude is equaled or exceeded once.
Return period calculation of hydrologic
events are based on annual exceedance
series or annual maximum series.
Return periods TE calculated based on the
annual exceedance series are related to the
return periods T calculated from annual
maximum series by,
−1
  T 
TE = ln 
  T − 1 
Annual exceedance series gives conservative
values but the usage of annual exceedance
series is limited by the fact that some events may
not be independent.
What do you mean by this? 30
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC)
A cumulative frequency curve that shows the percentage of
time that specified discharges are equaled or exceeded.
◼ Steps
◼ Acquire streamflow data
◼ Find the number of records (N)
◼ Sort the data from the highest to the lowest
◼ Rank the data (m=1 for the highest value and m=N for the lowest value)
◼ Compute exceedance probability for each value using the following
formula
m
p = 100 
N +1
◼ Plot p on x axis and Q (sorted) on y axis
▪ The FDC is used in identification of High-flow / Low-flow thresholds and
Environmental Flow under dry river flow or development scenario conditions.
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Identification of Flow Thresholds

Deflection Point

Deflection Point

No flow period

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Example
Date of Daily Average Sorted Flow
Rank
Exceedance Daily Average Flow (m3/s)
Observation Flow (m3/s) Rates (m3/s) Probability (%)
400
Day 01 376.2 376.2 1 3.2

Daily Average Flow (m3/s)

350
Day 02 258.4 258.4 2 6.5
Day 03 193.3 250.8 3 9.7 300
Day 04 153.1 193.3 4 12.9 250
Day 05 146.6 175.1 5 16.1
200
Day 06 143.1 159.1 6 19.4
Day 07 159.1 153.1 7 22.6 150
Day 08 131.3 146.6 8 25.8 100
Day 09 110.5 143.4 9 29.0
50
Day 10 114.9 143.1 10 32.3
Day 11 117.9 131.3 11 35.5 0

Day 01
Day 02
Day 03
Day 04
Day 05
Day 06
Day 07
Day 08
Day 09
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Day 13
Day 14
Day 15
Day 16
Day 17
Day 18
Day 19
Day 20
Day 21
Day 22
Day 23
Day 24
Day 25
Day 26
Day 27
Day 28
Day 29
Day 30
Day 12 94.0 129.4 12 38.7
Day 13 70.9 117.9 13 41.9
Day 14 71.8 114.9 14 45.2
Day 15 69.8 110.5 15 48.4
Day 16 66.0 94.0 16 51.6 FDC - Sorted Flow Rates (m3/s)
Day 17 62.0 90.4 17 54.8 400
Day 18 52.6 71.8 18 58.1
Daily Average Flow (m3/s)

350
Day 19 52.4 70.9 19 61.3
300
Day 20 46.6 69.8 20 64.5
Day 21 42.7 66.0 21 67.7 250
Day 22 44.5 62.0 22 71.0 200
Day 23 47.0 52.6 23 74.2 y = -89.79ln(x) + 445.29
Day 24 35.6 52.4 24 77.4 150 R² = 0.9763
Day 25 50.6 50.6 25 80.6 100
Day 26 90.4 47.0 26 83.9
50
Day 27 129.4 46.6 27 87.1
Day 28 250.8 44.5 28 90.3 0
Day 29 175.1 42.7 29 93.5 0 20 40 60 80 100
Day 30 143.4 35.6 30 96.8 Probability of Exceedance (%) 34
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Interpreting FDC
Shape: Represents the characteristics of a drainage basin, thus the shape of FDC can be used
to compare characteristics of one basin with those of another.
• Steep slope throughout - Highly variable flow
• Curve with flat slope - Presence of surface/groundwater storage
• Flat slope at lower end - Large perennial storage
• Sharp drop - Low/negligible storage
▪ Flat curve: River with only few floods; little variation in flow regime. Dry flow is supplied by
base-flows/groundwater flows.
▪ Steep curve: Frequent floods and dry periods; little storage from groundwater.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
▪ Other parameters:
• Mean: Area under portion of curve divided by the percent of time of that portion will
give mean flow during that duration.
• Median: Curve value at 50 % of the time.

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Interpreting FDC

Regulated
Flow

Natural Flow

Perennial River

Intermittent/Ephemeral River

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Ex.1: Calculation and Plotting FDC
Ex. 1: The measured flow frequency distribution for a stream over a period of 4 years
is as shown below. Use the data given to plot FDC and determine HF, MF, LF values.

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Ex.1: Calculation and Plotting FDC
Example: Calculation and Plotting FDC & Identification of Flow Thresholds

Mean Flow Range

HF

LF or EF

10.0% 90.0% 38
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Ex. 2: Hydrograph Method

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Solution: Hydrograph Method

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Solution: Hydrograph Method

1
2

9
10
11
12

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Solution: Hydrograph Method

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow duration curve (FDC) – Solution: Hydrograph Method

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.6 Flow Duration Curve (FDC) – Solution: Hydrograph Method
Applications: The information derived from the FDC can be used for the estimation of
the mean hydropower energy that can be generated by using the streamflow.

9.81 x 1000 Mean Flow Head Efficiency

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.7 Statistical Analysis in Hydrometeorology
▪ Statistical methods provide effective tools for the analysis of changes in
hydrometeorological variables and extreme hydrological/meteorological events,
as well as the correlation between different variables.
▪ Statistical methods have a long history in the analysis of hydrological data for
designing, planning, infilling, forecasting, and specifying better models to
assess scenarios of land use and climate change in catchments.
• Regression analysis
• Mass curve analysis
• Flood frequency analysis
• Many more (including BigData, Data Clouds, Climate Change
Modelling/GCM/RCM) which are beyond the scope of this class!

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.7 Statistical Analysis – Linear Regression
▪ A technique to determine the relationship between two random
variables.
• Relationship between discharge and velocity in a stream

• Relationship between discharge and water quality constituents

A regression model is given by : yi = b0 + b1 xi + e i i = 1,2,..., n

yi = ith observation of the response (dependent variable)
xi = ith observation of the explanatory (independent) variable
b0 = intercept
b1 = slope
ei = random error or residual for the i th observation
n = sample size
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.7 Statistical Analysis – Least Square Regression
▪ We have x1, x2, …, xn and y1,y2, …, yn observations of independent and
dependent variables, respectively.

▪ Define a linear model for yi, yˆi = b0 + b1 xi i = 1,2,..., n

▪ Fit the model (find β0 and β1) such at the sum of the squares of the vertical
deviations is minimum

▪ Minimize ( yi − yˆi )2 = ( yi − b0 − b1 xi )2 i = 1,2,..., n

• Regression applet: Try Scatter Plot tool in Excel for simple
regression analyses.
• For Multiple and Detailed Regression: “Data” Menu =>
“Data Analysis” Tab => Select Regression
What is the advantage of Least Square Regression ?
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.7 Statistical Analysis – Linear Regression in Excel
▪ Steps in Excel:
• Prepare a scatter plot
• Fit a trend line (Add a Linear trend and equation, Goodness of Fit measure)
Data are Total Dissolved Solid
1800
readings/ measurements from
1500
TDS = 0.5946(sp. Cond) - 15.709
a City River in Texas, USA.
R2 = 0.9903
1200 Note: Conductance is generally
TDS (mg/L)

defined as the reciprocal of

900 resistance of that material. SI unit
of conductance is S (Siemens).
600
Specific conductivity (better known
300 as conductivity) is the measure of
the ability of that material to
0 conduct electricity.
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Specific Conductance ( S/cm)
What could be the Purpose of
this Experiment?

▪ Alternatively, you can use Tools => Data Analysis => Regression

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.7 Statistical Analysis – Coefficient of determination (R2)
It is the proportion of observed y variation that can be explained by the simple linear regression model
and defined as:
16 X Y ෝ𝒊 𝟐
𝒚𝒊 − 𝒚 ഥ 𝟐
𝒚𝒊 − 𝒚
SSE
R2 = 1−
Dependent Variable (y)
2 3 0.36 38.44
SST 12
where, 4 7 0.36 4.84

SSE =  ( yi − yˆ i ) 2 8
6 10 0.64 0.64
8 11 1.00 3.24
Error sum of squares
4 y = 1.4x + 0.8 10 15 0.04 33.64

SST =  ( yi − y ) 2
R² = 0.9703
0 𝑦ത = 9.2 𝑆𝑆𝐸 = 2.4 𝑆𝑆𝑇 = 80.8
Total sum of squares, 0 4 8 12
Ybar is the mean of yi Independent Variable (x)

▪ The higher the value of R2 (Coefficient d Determination), 2.4

𝑅2 = 1 − = 0.9703
the more successful is the model in explaining y variation. 80.8
▪ If R2 is small (i.e. < 0.5), search for an alternative model (nonlinear or multiple regression
model) that can more effectively explain y variation
What could be the maximum possible value of R2 and what does this mean?
49
 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.8 More about Time Series Sampling

▪ If observations are taken at a frequency (number/time period) of f, then any

information with a frequency greater than ½ * f CAN NOT be recovered.

▪ If you take temperature measurements every 24 hours, can you learn

anything about diurnal (or hourly) variations?

▪ Does this concept apply to spatial sampling?

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.8 More about Time Series Sampling - Precision and Accuracy
▪ Precision: How close the measurements are to each other
▪ Accuracy: How close the measurements are to the true value

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.9 Data Collection and Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes
▪ Hydrological extremes are defined as unusually high or low magnitude events associated with
the occurrence, movement and distribution of water, such as floods, storms, hurricanes,
erosion/landslides and droughts (i.e. excessive, immoderate, inordinate, extravagant, exorbitant,
or simply extreme means going beyond a normal limit).
▪ Hydrological extremes usually result from a combination of compounding interacting physical
processes that occur across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
▪ Rainfall/streamflow extremes derived from continuous or partial time series are used to
determine design flood magnitudes and frequencies for water resources planning and
development purposes.
▪ Such extremes are
used to develop
Extreme value
functions and
national and regional
level Rainfall
Intensity-Duration-
Frequency curves
which are used for
design flood
estimation.
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.9 Data Collection and Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes
Traditional Methods for Estimating Hydrologic Extremes
Step 1: Select Extreme Event from Each Historical Year

50,000

45,000
Snohomish Basin
40,000
Streamflow (cfs)

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
1

289

307

325

343

361
100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280

298

316

334

352
Day of the Water Year (1 = Oct 1 in SL)
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.9 Data Collection and Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes
Step 2: Rank Extreme Events for all Years and Estimate Quantiles

100,000

90,000

80,000
Streamflow (cfs)

70,000
Median
60,000 1999 Annual
50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
0.01
0.04
0.07
0.11
0.14
0.17
0.20
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.34
0.37
0.40
0.43
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.57
0.60
0.63
0.66
0.70
0.73
0.76
0.80
0.83
0.86
0.89
0.93
0.96
0.99
Probability of Exceedance (Fraction)
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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.9 Data Collection and Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes

Step 3: Fit a Probability Distribution to the Data

▪ Examples of Commonly Used Probability Distributions:

• Extreme Value Type 1 (EV 1, Gumbel distribution)

• Log Normal (LN)

• Log Pearson Type III

• Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)

▪ For climate change experiments, GEV is a good choice since the true nature of
the future probability distributions is essentially unknown. However, it turns out
that the choice of distribution is not very critical in terms of the evaluating the
sensitivity to warming and/or precipitation change.

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 5-1. Hydrological Analysis
5.1.9 Data Collection and Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes

Step 4: Estimate Extremes Associated with Return Intervals

Site Name Event Ret. Int. Flow (cfs)

SNOMO : Q20 20 68,660
SNOMO : Q50 50 81,332
SNOMO : Q100 100 91,145

Note that any return interval can be estimated. E.g. One could provide an
estimate of the “5,000 year flood”.

Q100 Q100
Flow (cfs)
Flow (cfs)

Q50 Q50
Q20 Q20

RT20 RT50 RT100 RT20 RT50 RT100

Ret. Int. (Year) Log(Ret. Int. )
56
Step 4: Estimate Extremes Associated with Return Intervals

Site Name Event Ret. Int. Flow (cfs)

SNOMO : Q20 20 68,660
SNOMO : Q50 50 81,332
SNOMO : Q100 100 91,145

Note that any return interval can be estimated. E.g.

One could provide an estimate of the “5,000 year flood”.

Q100 Q100
Flow (cfs)
Flow (cfs)

Q50 Q50
Q20 Q20

RT20 RT50 RT100 RT20 RT50 RT100

Ret. Int. (Year) Log(Ret. Int. )
Step 5 (Optional) : Regionalize the Results

In order to avoid the inherent “noise” that comes with using

imperfect site specific data, a common approach is to
“regionalize” the results.

The idea is to pool as many sites as possible that have

common hydroclimatic features (e.g. sites in a selected region),
and express the flood statistics as a simple ratio to the mean
annual flood (MAF) averaged over many different basins.

E.g.

Q100 = 2.7 * MAF

This approach is used by Ecology in providing estimates of

extreme events for the Dam Safety Programs, for example.
Additional reading/References

• Maidment, D. R, 1975. Handbook of Hydrology for Engineers, McGraw Hill, NY.

• Chow, V.T., D.R. Maidment, and L.W. Mays, 1989. Applied Hydrology, McGraw-
Hill, New York.
• Larry W. Mays, Hydraulic Design Handbook, McGraw – Hill, 1999.
• Chadwick, A., Morfett, J., Borthwick, M., 2004. Hydraulics in Civil and
Environmental Engineering, 4th edition, Abingdon, UK04.
• Subramanya, K., 2013. Engineering Hydrology. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
• Mays, L. W., 2010. Water Resources Engineering, McGraw-Hill, New York.
• Chow, V.T., D.R. Maidment and L.W. Mays, 1988. Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill,
New York.
• Haan, C.T. (Charles Thomas), 1977. Statistical Methods in Hydrology, Iowa State
University Press, USA.
• Kite, G. W., 1977. Frequency and Risk Analysis in Hydrology, Water Resources
PubL, Fort Collins.
• Yevjevich, V., 1972. Probability and Statistics in Hydrology, Water Resources
Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. 59
Then...
Additional reading....
Additional exercises ....
Self learning/life-long learning ....
Next, you need to know how
these concepts be used for design
purposes….
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