Can You Still Meet People During

Coronavirus?

As coronavirus locks down the world, can you still have a social life…
and what ARE the real risks of the disease – should you a venture
outdoors? Image credit: Kukuruyo.com

Coronavirus is sweeping the Western world now, after having

already swept across East Asia.

As of yet, the death toll remains low, compared to common flu.

However, the virus appears to be deadlier than common flu, and
somewhere as (or perhaps even more) contagious than flu.

How much deadlier and more contagious is not completely clear.

Different health officials say different things. And everyone online
has an opinion. Often a strong one.
This article is about two things:

How big a threat to you COVID-19 actually is, and

What you should do social-life- and love-life-wise while the whole

world is on lock-down.

In Italy, as of March 21st, there are 4,825 COVID-19 deaths. This is

despite the outbreak there only having really started a month ago,
and despite rapid and wide-reaching steps taken by authorities to
close things down and minimize spread.

By comparison, normal influenza kills around 17,000 people per year

in Italy.

If you look at only those numbers, it appears COVID-19 is may well

reach or exceed normal flu levels of deaths before we hit summer
and the epidemic fizzles out.
And most
likely it
will fizzle
out
during
summer
(although
no one is

completely certain). Coronaviruses house themselves within a lipid

(fatty) layer, which breaks down as temperatures get hotter. This is
the same reason the body fights a coronavirus infection with a fever
(turn up the heat, break down the lipid layer).

Airborne viruses (which COVID-19 is) also fare worse during warmer
weather due to greater humidity in the air, which leads to viruses
ending up in larger, heavier water droplets, which head to the
ground faster than the smaller ones hanging in the air in cooler, drier
environments.

So, most likely (although not definitely), this virus will be done by
summer.

SARS (a similar, though less infectious, coronavirus) was finished by

July of the year it broke out (2003).

However, there's something else to take into account before we

dismiss COVID-19, and that is its exponential spread.

Every four days, the number of COVID-19 infected doubles.

This is not just theoretical. Three days ago, on March 19th, the
number of coronavirus infected in the U.S. was 13,860. Two days
later it sat at 26,747 (doubled in two days, actually).

That looks like this:

Day 1: one infected

Day 5: two infected
Day 9: four infected
...
Day 29: 128 infected
...
Day 49: 4,096 infected
The U.K., with 5,067 infected, is at about Day 50
Day 53: 8,192 infected
Day 57: 16,384 infected
The U.S., with 26,747 infected, is at about Day 60
Day 61: 32,768 infected
 Italy, with 53,578 infected, is at about Day 64
Day 65: 65,536 infected
Day 73: 262,144 infected
Day 101: 33,544,432 infected (half the population of Italy / the
U.K.)
Day 105: 67,108,864 infected (entire population of Italy / the
U.K.)
Day 113: 268,435, 456 infected (two-thirds the population of
the U.S.)
Day 117: 536,870,912 infected (more than the population of the
U.S.)

The yellow line -- COVID-19 cases outside of China -- is what

exponential spread looks like. Worldwide COVID-19 cases as of
March 21st, 2020, courtesy Coronavirus-Map.com

So, in another 40 days, all of Italy could be infected.

With a mortality rate of about 10% in Italy right now, assuming that
mortality rate held, that would put us at somewhere around six
million dead in Italy alone in less than two months.

Other countries have a lower mortality rate than Italy has had so far,
however.

China has 3,265 deaths to 81,345 infected, or a mortality rate of

4%.

The United Kingdom has 177 deaths to 5,067 infected (mortality

rate of 3.5%).

The United States has only 252 deaths to 25,747 infected so far
(mortality rate of 1%). Keep in mind the U.S.'s mortality rate is likely
as low as it is because of the paucity of accurate tests in the U.S. --
meaning there may be many more coronavirus dead, who are simply
not identified as coronavirus dead.

However, even if the U.S. is really only at a 1% death rate, given

exponential spread rates, if the spread is not curbed, you are still
looking at total population infection by Day 114 (less than two
months from now), with a total death rate of over 3 million... about
10x the annual death rate of standard flu.

(of course, you're not likely to actually hit total infection, as

countries will impose stricter and stricter quarantines before that
point, as China did. We're just talking about what happens in an
'unchecked spread' scenario)

Anyway -- why is Italy's death rate so much higher than other

countries'?

In fact, Italy's death rate is analogous to that of Wuhan, China,

before the Chinese authorities brought COVID-19 there under
control.
Which I suspect the reasons for that are:

1. Italy's hospitals are overburdened (this is confirmed)

2. The strain of COVID-19 circulating in Italy has likely mutated

(this is speculative)

We know #1 is definitely the case:

However, is Italy home now to an analogous mutated strain to

Wuhan was (bullet #2 above)?

My guess is if they start testing strains, they are going to find that
yes, it is.

To understand COVID-19, you need to understand that the virus

comes in two different strains:
 A. Original strain: this strain is less virulent, which means
symptoms are milder and it is not as lethal. While milder viruses
don't spread as well in dense populations, they are better at
spreading over long distances, as people can't be too sick to
travel. The original strain is the one that's spread across the
world, due to its milder symptoms.

B. Mutant strain: this strain is an evolved variant from the

original strain that is significantly more virulent. Symptoms are
much stronger, allowing faster spread in close proximity, but
also rapidly disabling many infected, while also making them far
easier to identify, with far higher mortality. Somewhere between
10-20% of the infected become seriously ill, requiring
hospitalization for pneumonia (fluid-filled lungs; i.e., drowning
in your own mucus). 70% of the infected in Wuhan were
identified as having this newer mutant strain, and it apparently
only takes a single mutation for the original strain to mutate into
the far more virulent mutant variety.

The risk is that once enough of a population is infected with COVID-

19, it is very easy for the mutant high virulence strain to emerge.

It only takes one mutation.

Once that happens, you have far more rapid spread among the
population, along with a big spike in hospitalizations, and an
overwhelming of the area's healthcare system.

And that's what looks like may be happening in Italy: the same thing
that happened in Wuhan.

What Happened in Wuhan

Initially in Wuhan, once the coronavirus mutated, so many people
were gravely ill that every hospital bed was full. People were dying in
the corridors in Wuhan hospitals for want of beds. Others were
returning home to die together after failing to find a hospital bed.

Based on what I have heard from Chinese I've talked to, here is how
China finally got Wuhan under control:

It built two new hospitals over the course of two weeks in

Wuhan

It set up many additional makeshift structures with beds for the

infected

It marshaled 10% of the entire healthcare staff of the entire

country of 1.4 billion people to Wuhan (doctors, nurses,
everyone)

It set up a quarantine policy for Wuhan like so: anyone with a

fever immediately goes to one of the makeshift quarantine
areas. No home quarantine for the infected in Wuhan.
Quarantined are then tested for coronavirus and monitored for
symptoms. If confirmed infected or if symptoms worsen, the
infected are moved to a more advanced quarantine. If
symptoms worsen again, infected are moved to one of the
actual hospitals. If symptoms become severe, infected are
finally moved to the ICU

Before containment measures in full force:

 See Inside COVID-19 Hospital, Filmed By Wuhan Resident, Lat…

(the man crying in the hospital is saying "I can't breathe"; outside at
the van the cameraman counts six body bags)

After containment measures in full force:

 Life inside China’s rapidly built hospitals in Wuhan, the epicent…

China locked down the entire rest of the country, most likely (in my
opinion) to prevent a recurrence of the mutant strain of the virus.

The thing to consider here is this: containment of Wuhan required a

vast national effort, for one city. If the coronavirus was allowed to
spread uncontrolled throughout the nation, it quite possibly could
have led to an actual social breakdown. Wuhan itself was contained
before it got really bad -- there's much worse it could've gotten, had
the authorities not contained it.
Wuhan on lock-down.

Here's what lock-down is like in a Chinese city right now other than
Wuhan:

Most restaurants and shops are closed. What few restaurants

remain open are take-out only; you are not allowed to sit and
eat in restaurants

No one may enter apartment complexes who does not live

there. This includes cleaning ladies (ayis), deliverymen,
everyone. If you have something being delivered, you need to
meet the deliveryman at the entrance to the apartment
compound and carry your deliveries home yourself.

Banks are open 2 days out of the week rather than the usual 7.
Bank open times rotate around the city, with one branch in one
area open one day, one branch in a different area open the next
 You must have your temperature checked when entering or
exiting any apartment complex. Any building you want to enter
(grocery store, bank, print shop, hotel, etc.) will take your
temperature before you're allowed inside

Getting a temperature check at a food store.

Everyone must wear a mask outside. You will not be allowed

entrance anywhere without a mask on. Deliberately getting
your unmasked face close to someone else in public is an
arrestable offense

Most employees who must work outside the home go to work

in rotating shifts. You go to work one day, then are off the next
two days. During those two days you have off, other coworkers
of yours are at work.

Curfews are in place from 10 PM to 6 AM. No one may enter or

exit anywhere during these times
 Coronavirus puts Shanghai into a coma | AFP

The result has been the spread of COVID-19 is contained, new

domestic infections have fallen to nearly zero, and there has been
no panic buying or supply shortages. No toilet paper problems in
the PRC.

The question for the rest of the world however is Will other
countries be able to do this too?

Quarantine in Other Countries

In Italy, during the early days of the outbreak, Italians in a town hall
meeting mocked an official who was wearing a mask. He threw the
mask off in anger, and declared that he had visited three
coronavirus hotspots and was wearing the mask for their protection,
not his. But that if they wanted his mask off, then he'd take it off,
and Godspeed to them.
I am still hearing reports that despite the government telling
everyone in Italy to stay indoors, many are not listening and still
going out anyway.

In France, you must have a form to leave the house. If you do not
have one, the fine is 135 euros per offense.
California and New York have now forbid people from leaving their
homes for non-essential reasons. And we have to assume other
states will soon follow.

The U.K. until present has been pretty cavalier. But seeing as it is
already at Day 50, we can bet somewhere within the next 10-15
days, as the number of infected continues to double every four
days, we will see the U.K. change its tune, too.

Who Dies from COVID-19?

Males account for about 2/3 of COVID-19 deaths; females are 1/3.

The majority of COVID-19 deaths occur among people over 60. In

Italy, 99% of the dead had one or more underlying health
complication.
Graphic from Daily Mail

The most common health complications include:

Diabetes
Cardiovascular disease
Hypertension (high blood pressure)

The death rate is as follows:

Graphic from Business Insider

In Italy, 99% of the dead are 60 and older.

On Twitter, and in U.S. schools, people have taken to calling this

virus the "Boomer Remover":

I have been informed by a relative who is a middle school teacher

that students are now referring to coronavirus as the "boomer
remover"

— B. W. Carlin (@BaileyCarlin) March 12, 2020

Baby Boomers really do not like this meme.

So, that's the rub.

Many people are dying.

Almost all of them are 60+, and with preexisting health conditions.

If you're among the vast majority of this website's readership (i.e.,

under 60, and with no preexisting health conditions), COVID-19
poses very little threat to you directly.

There are still young people who die. I've read of a few men in their
20s and 30s who succumbed to COVID-19, though I don't have
information on whether they had preexisting health conditions are
not.

And obviously, you do not want to get this and spread it to your
parents, or any other older adults in your life.

For the most part though, this disease is not a direct threat to your
own personal health or life.

There are some reports saying it causes lasting damage to the

lungs, liver, kidneys, and testes.

The link to damage to men's testicles is completely speculative, and

so far no evidence of COVID-19 in men's testes has been found.

The liver and kidney damage is linked to a severe COVID-19

infection (i.e., pneumonia), which, again, is mostly only occurring in
older adults with health complications. This damage happens when
the lungs aren't able to get enough oxygen to these organs, and the
organs start to die.

So, most likely, even getting infected with this at all is not going to
be a problem for you, if you are under 60 and don't have healthy
problems.

That means that, while you don't want to spread it to older folks and
be a disease vector, it is also not a threat to you... pretty much at all.
Well, we've established that you're probably not going to die during
this apocalypse.

That's assuming you are under 60 and have no health

complications.

If you're over 60 and/or have health complications, you are probably

going to want to be totally stocked up on everything so you can
self-quarantine away until summer, just to be safe.
Corona-chan paying a visit to the elderly. Image credit:
Kukuruyo.com

But what about if you're not in the risk camp?

Do you just shut yourself up away and let the next few months slip
by?

In Some Places, You Have No Choice

Nightlife is totally out pretty much everywhere even marginally
affected by COVID-19.

All the bars and nightclubs are shut down. In many places public
gatherings (like house parties) are now illegal.

It's a little weird on the face of it that nightlife is shut down... seeing
as its core demographic definitely does not include the 60+ and/or
those with health issues.

However, it makes sense when you understand viral spread.

It's not for your own good. It's for society's.

The aim of the governments now is to keep the spread of

COVID-19 as low as possible, to minimize the mass dying of
elderly. While you going to the club and getting infected along with
300 other under-40 clubgoers that night won't likely lead to many or
any serious infections, and almost certainly no deaths, for you and
the immediate clubgoers... an extra 300 infected, who then spread
the virus more themselves, potentially leads to many more dead
elderly down the line.

Remember: the thing with this virus is each infected spreads his
disease to around 3 other people.

So that 300 infected in the club quickly become 1,200 infected once
those 300 have passed their infections along. Which soon becomes
3,600. Which then becomes 9,600.

This is what your government does not want.

There is basically no way to stop young people from spreading the
disease to old people. If all the young people get COVID-19, all the
old people will get it, too.

And then all the old people will die.

If you don't care about old people, remember that old people make
up most of the politicians, most of the corporate officers and board
members, and most of the leadership in every conceivable social
organization. Mass death of the elderly means the entire system
takes a major hit.

Thus, if you're in a big city, if they haven't locked you down already,
it's coming, and you're probably not going to have much choice in it.

Smaller Towns and Cities

Smaller towns and cities will most likely not see as heavy quarantine
as you're seeing in the major metropolises. Though they might see
refugees.

In China, this led to many small villages in Hubei (the province

Wuhan is in) blocking off the roads in by putting boulders or other
obstructions on the road, or even digging the road up entirely, to
prevent outsiders from fleeing in and bringing the infection with
them:
A road blocked village road in China's Hubei Province.

So if you're not in a metropolis, going out to meet people still may

be an option.

Nightlife may remain open in smaller towns and villages.

Even if nightlife closes down in medium-size cities, you'll still likely

be able to go outside and meet people on the street (day game still
works), as well as meet up with friends and with dating app
matches.

Of course, there's no guarantees.

In the Philippines (which is not hard hit at all), you go to jail if you go
outside without good reason to.

The Philippines is a bit of an odd case: it is warm, so COVID-19

doesn't do well there; it is also humid; there are only 380 infections
in the entire country, and only 25 deaths. Its first COVID-19 death
was well before Italy's (Philippines: February 2nd; Italy: February
22nd), and Italy has already left it in the dust on both infections and
death count. But the Philippines is not taking any chances, banning
entry to all foreigners without exception and quarantining various
localities (Manila is now locked down and under quarantine).

So it really is going to depend on the reaction of your local

government.

This coronavirus pandemic, while not a direct threat to most people

under 60, and while not a major threat in warm regions, is still scary
to people, and it is causing governments to react in, in some cases
I'd say, overly cautious ways.

And if you are in a place that reacts that way, you are either going to
have to leave, or you are going to have to just go along with it.

So What Can You Do?

Let's say you're single, and aren't lucky enough to be locked down
with a cutie to weather quarantine with. What's your play?

Well, depending on your area:

Nightlife may or may not be closed/banned

Going out in public for reasons other than buying

food/medicine or going to work may or may not be banned

Going to a residence you don't live in (say, the home of the

attractive stranger you matched with on Tinder) may or may
not be banned

If going out without cause is banned in your town, but you can still
go grocery shopping, you may be tempted to hit on attractive
strangers at the supermarket. One or two might be okay, but if you
camp out there doing approaches, be prepared to get booted out,
or even having to deal with the police. Be sensible.

If you do meet a girl while out, just grab her number to contact her
later. You'll have plenty of time to text her in lock-down, and it's not
like she is going to have a ton of other things to do.

This might also be a good time to cycle through 'dead' contacts in

your contacts list and see if you can't get a little something going on
while the world outside is in stasis.

There is also the option of fleeing somewhere unaffected by COVID-

19.

Anywhere warm and humid should be at the top of your list.

There's a good map here worth referencing:

https://coronavirus-map.com/
Social Responsibility
Nations and communities with a tighter social fabric obviously have
a stronger ability to get everyone inline with personal restrictions.
There was little panic buying in most of East Asia. There were no
toilet paper shortages in Mainland China (though there was an
armed toilet paper robbery in Hong Kong a month back. Unusual,
considering how docile Hong Kong usually is).

When China, Japan, and South Korea told everyone to stay indoors,
they did.

France needed its super restrictive measures (far more restrictive

than any in East Asia) because when France closed its public
meeting venues and told its populace to stop meeting in public, they
kept meeting in public anyway.

Now, the thing with facemasks: there are two types of masks,
basically:

1. Normal surgical masks. These do not stop someone from

breathing coronavirus in. The holes in the mask are large
enough the virus can easily pass through.

2. N95 masks. These, when worn properly, are actually

effective at filtering coronavirus out. They filter out about 93%
of viral particles when used correctly.
Your choices when it comes to facemasks. Only the mask on the
right protects you from viruses.

But there is a severe mask shortage, and you are probably not going
to be able to get the N95 masks.

And this is how it works:

If everybody in a society wears the surgical masks, the spread

stops.
It doesn't stop because the mask you wear protects you from
others.

It stops because the mask you wear protects others from you.

The viruses you breathe, sneeze, or cough out don't spread far
when there's a mask to block their expulsion.

Wearing a mask is a kind of civic duty during an epidemic.

Because if not everybody wears a mask, the spread continues.

If you're going out, during a viral epidemic, you should probably

wear a mask. Even if you cannot get an N95 mask to protect
yourself, you should wear a surgical mask at least, to do your part in
protecting others.

Even if you're not at direct risk. Even if it's only old people you might
spread the disease to you'd be putting at risk.

If you go out to meet people, and you meet someone cute, just tell
her, "Don't worry, I look good under this mask, I'm just trying to be
responsible," if you're wearing a mask and she's not.

You can always trade photos with her later.

I do hate saying this, but depending on your locality, you may have
to wait it out.
You might be stuck inside a few months, not able to meet up with
dates or meet new people.

If you're not in a harder hit area, and there's not as strict a

quarantine in place, that may not be your issue, though.

However, if you're in a major metropolis, or a region where COVID-

19 is spreading, or a locality where it isn't but your government is
paranoid (like in the Philippines), you might not have an option.

The good news is, this thing will all be over at some point.

It will probably (though, again, not 100% definitely) go away by

summer.

There is a chance it recurs again during winter. And it might become

a seasonal thing, until we have a vaccine for it.

When summer arrives and COVID-19 disappears, and all the

quarantine restrictions lift, it's gonna be a party, of course.

So, you can plan for that.

You can still be messaging with the opposite sex while you're on
lockdown. There's no quarantine on your cell phone.
No quarantine on this cell phone!

I'd suggest you don't get too absorbed in social media, as always.
That's always a bit of a black hole.

But, you can read this website. You can participate on the forums.
We have some stellar books and programs you can go through while
you're homebound.

And, try to enjoy yourself in quarantine, too! You can make

homemade bread cheaply and easily, with minimal ingredients or
skill. You can make that even easier by buying a bread machine,
which you can get for as low as about $100 if you shop around
(usually less expensive than that -- around the $50 range -- but
demand has driven prices up).

(if you're missing those French fries, calamari, and doughnuts, you
could always pick up a deep fryer, too. Though you might want to
avoid that temptation, considering the health effects of deep fried
food. But, you know, it's an option)

Couple your bread machine with a panini press or other sandwich

grill and you can whip yourself up all kinds of homemade meals to
replace the stuff you're used to getting outside.

While you're waiting for your bread to rise, have a few gos at the old
classic Pandemic 2 and see if you can't wipe out the Earth:

http://www.pandemic2.org/

Then reflect on how this is not nearly as bad as that.

Once it's over, life as you knew it will return.

Until then, we are going to go through this weird phase now where
many of us are just locked inside, and until it's over we'll just have to
adapt.

Chase Amante