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Lecture Notes 1

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MATH220

Probability & Statistics


Asst. Prof. Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez

Email: [email protected]
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Baye’s Rule

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Baye’s Rule

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 ∩ 𝐶∪𝐷 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐶∪𝐷
= 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 (1- 𝑃 𝐶′ ∪ 𝐷′ ) = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 (1− 𝑃 𝐶 ! )𝑃(𝐷′ )
= 0.9 × 0.9 × 1 − (1 − 0.8) ×(1 − 0.8 )
= 0.7776

Where we used the relations

!
𝐶∪𝐷 = 𝐶′ ∩ 𝐷′ 𝑎𝑛𝑑

𝑃 𝐶 ∪ 𝐷 ′ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐶 ! ∩ 𝐷! = 1 − 𝑃 𝐶 ! 𝑃(𝐷! )
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Exercise

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Exercise

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶′ ∩ 𝐷) 0.9×0.9× 1 − 0.8 × 0.8


=
𝑃(𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑠) 0.7776
= 0.1667

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆)
𝑃 𝑀𝑆 =
𝑃(𝑆)

𝑃(𝐶′ ∩ 𝑀′)
𝑃 𝐶′ 𝑀′ =
𝑃(𝑀′)

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
28
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆) 200 28
𝑃 𝑀𝑁 = = =
𝑃(𝑆) 28 + 50 78
200

45 + 50
𝑃(𝐶′ ∩ 𝑀′) 200 95
𝑃 𝐶′ 𝑀′ = = =
𝑃(𝑀′) 45 + 50 + 17 112
200

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑃 ∩ 𝐻) 10
𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝑃 ∩ 𝐻 𝑃) = =
𝑃(𝐻) 68

!
12
𝑃 𝑀∩𝐻∩𝑃
𝑃 𝑀∩𝐻 𝑃 !
= = 100
𝑃 𝑃! 32
100

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics
𝑃 𝑊 ∩ 𝐻 = 𝑃 𝑊 𝑃 𝐻 𝑊 = 0.5 × 0.7

Altınbaş University Dr. Sinem Yelda Sönmez MATH221 Propability & Statistics

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