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Enve4200 2021 Assign1 Soln

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25 views2 pages

Enve4200 2021 Assign1 Soln

Uploaded by

Basith Bhai
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© © All Rights Reserved
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ENVE4200: Climate Change and Engineering

Assignment 1, Winter 2021

Solutions

1. (a) We can substitute equation 2 directly into equation 1 to isolate for TS .

(1 − α)S T4
+ σ S = σTS4 (1)
4 2
 (1 − α)S 1/4
TS = (2)
4σ(1 − 2 )

Substituting the given values yields


 (1 − (0.30))(1370) 1/4
TS = (0.75)
= 286.8 K (3)
4(5.67 × 10−8 )(1 − 2 )
TA = (TS4 /2) 1/4
= 241 K (4)

(b) We can recalculate the surface temperature for each of the two cases separately using
equation (3).

 (1 − (0.35))(1370) 1/4
TS = (0.75)
= 281.5 K (5)
4(5.67 × 10−8 )(1 − 2 )
 (1 − (0.30))(1370 ∗ 1.01) 1/4
TS = (0.75)
= 287.5 K (6)
4(5.67 × 10−8 )(1 − 2 )
(7)

The albedo change has the greater relative effect by about a factor of 7.7. The absolute
effect is 5.3 K compared to 0.7 K.
2. Given that for the 1961-1990 period, µ1 = 329.3 cm and σ1 = 65 cm, one can get a
x−µ 200−329.3
normalized variable Z = σ = 65 = 1.9892. From a normal distribution table,
we find P (x < 200) = 2.33%. Or, if one explicitly integrates the normal distribution from
negative infinity to x = 200,
 
200 − µ1
P (x < 200) = 0.5 + 0.5erf √ = 0.0233, (8)
2σ1

where erf(a) is the error function. Similarly, for the 1981-2010 period, with µ2 = 279.1
cm and σ2 = 65 cm the probability is P (x < 200) = 11.2%. A year with less than 200 cm
of snow becomes almost 5 times more likely!

1
3. (a) For the first seven years of the protocol, S = E = 8.5×107 kg · yr−1 , and k = 0.0167 yr−1 ,
with a mass at the start of the protocol of m(1989) = 1.5 × 109 kg. The concentration going
forward is governed by first-order kinetics:
S
m(1996) = m(1989)e−kt + (1 − e−kt )
k
(8.5 × 107 )
= (1.5 × 109 )e−(0.0167)(7) + (1 − e−(0.0167)(7) ) = 1.9 × 109 kg. (9)
(0.0167)

After 1996, the source goes (ostensibly) to zero, so the second term in the above equation
drops out and the concentration decreases exponentially.

m(2050) = m(1996)e−kt = (1.9 × 109 )e−(0.0167)(54) = 7.7 × 108 kg. (10)

From the same equation with t = 104, we obtain m(2100) = 3.4 × 108 kg.
(b) If we delay implementation by ten years, the equations do not change but the times
will. First we calculate the burden at 2006 (t = 17) instead of 1996:
S
m(2006) = m(1989)e−kt + (1 − e−kt )
k
(8.5 × 107 )
= (1.5 × 109 )e−(0.0167)(17) + (1 − e−(0.0167)(17) ) = 2.4 × 109 kg. (11)
(0.0167)

Then at the later years (44 and 94 years after the implementation, respectively):

m(2050) = m(2006)e−kt = (2.4 × 109 )e−(0.0167)(44) = 1.1 × 109 kg,


m(2100) = m(2006)e−kt = (2.4 × 109 )e−(0.0167)(94) = 5.0 × 108 kg. (12)

The consequence of delayed action is an additional 0.16 Tg of CFC-11 in the atmosphere


one hundred years later. In other words, the concentration of CFC-11 a century later is
47% higher if we delay action by ten years.

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