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11 - Introduction To Travel Demand Forecasting - Traffic Assignment

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78 views25 pages

11 - Introduction To Travel Demand Forecasting - Traffic Assignment

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matthew delos santos
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10: Introduction to Travel Demand

Forecasting – Traffic Assignment


CE 17: Principles of Transportation Engineering
Introduction to Travel Demand Forecasting

PART 4: TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT


Traffic Assignment
Traffic assignment is the stage in the transportation
planning process wherein the trip interchanges are
allocated to different parts of the network forming the
transportation system.
In this stage,
1. The route to be travelled is determined.
2. The inter-zonal flows are assigned to the selected
routes.
Traffic Assignment
• Traffic assignment is the procedure by which the
planner or engineer predicts the paths the trip will
take.
• For example, if a trip goes from a suburb to
downtown, the model predicts the specific streets or
transit routes to be used.
Traffic Assignment
• Determine which routes will be used and how much
traffic can be expected on each route.
• Requires the following data:
– Estimated number of motor vehicle trips between
zones.
– Available routes between zones and travel times on
each route.
– Decision criteria by which users will select route.
Traffic Assignment
• Route assignment presents a classic equilibrium
problem.
– Route choice decisions are a function of travel times.
– Travel times are determined by traffic flow.
– Traffic flow is a product of route choice decisions.
• Mathematical relationship between route travel time and
route traffic flow is needed.
– Highway Performance Function
Capacity Restraint Method
Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) function
𝑉 4
𝑡 = 𝑡0 1 + 0.15
𝐶
Where: t = travel time
t0 = free-flow travel time
V = volume
C = capacity
Route Choice Behavior
• Route choice behavior is often modeled after
Wardrop’s Principles.
– Principle 1: users choose the route that minimizes
their own travel time (User Equilibrium Method).
– Principle 2: users distribute themselves on the
network in such a way that the average travel time
for all users is minimized (System Optimization).
Principle 1: User Equilibrium Method
• When determining route choice, two important assumptions
are usually made:
– Travelers will select a route on the basis of travel times.
– Travelers know the travel times that would be encountered
on all available routes.
• Given this information, the travel time between two zones on
all “used” routes will be equal.
– Under UE, travelers cannot improve their travel times by
unilaterally changing routes.
Example
Highway performance functions have been developed
based on data collected from travel time studies on each of
the two available routes:
• Route 1 has a free-flow travel time of 6 minutes and the
average travel time on this route increases by 2 minutes
for every 500-vehicle increase in hourly volume.
• Route 2 has a free-flow travel time of 4 minutes and its
average travel time increases by the square of its volume
(in thousands of vehicles per hour).
Example
• Assuming user equilibrium conditions, determine the
following assuming an hourly flow rate of 4500
veh/hr.
– Travel times on each route
– Traffic volumes on each route
– Total system travel time
Principle 2: System Optimization
• Theoretically, a single route choice strategy is possible that results in
the lowest possible number of total vehicle hours of travel for some
origin-destination traffic flow.
• For a set of routes, the total system travel time is:
𝑆 𝑥 = 𝑥𝑖 𝑡𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑥𝑗 𝑡𝑗 𝑥𝑗 + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑛 𝑡𝑛 (𝑥𝑛 )
• The system-optimal route choice rule is made operational by the
following mathematical program:

min 𝑆 𝑥 = ෍ 𝑥𝑛 𝑡𝑛 𝑥𝑛
𝑛
Example
• From the previous example, determine the system
optimal solution and calculate the following:
– Travel times on each route
– Traffic volumes on each route
– Total system travel time
Example
Example
Principle 3: All-or-Nothing Technique
• Originally known as Dijkstra’s algorithm, it is also known as the
minimum path technique.
• All trips are assigned on the shortest route where the travel
resistance is least: time, distance, cost, generalized cost
• Simple and inexpensive to perform
• Does not take into account the effect of traffic congestion:
– Assumes there is no travel time change due to increased traffic
– Flow patterns could be unrealistic
– Can be used for special cases (such as under-saturated traffic,
etc.)
Transport Link
As a first step, the highway
network is described by a
system of links and nodes.
• A link is a section of a
highway network
between intersections.
• A node is either the
centroid of a zone or the
intersection of two or
more links.
Example
The figure shows the
distances in hours between
cities in a TAZ. Use Dijkstra’s
algorithm to find the
shortest route between the
following cities:
a. Cities 1 and 8
b. Cities 2 and 6
Example
Assign the trips below to the network shown. The
numbers indicated on the arrows are times in
minutes.
Origin Destination
1 2 3 4
1 0 625 750 800
2 850 0 950 750
3 350 440 0 640
4 1010 550 460 0
Four-Step Travel Demand Forecasting

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