SIMULATION

Q1. A bakery keeps stock of popular brand of cake, previous experience shows the daily
demand pattern as follows:-

Demand 5 6 710 11 18 9 Total

2
No of 4 10 16 50 62 38 12 8 200
days
Simulate the demand for
next 10 days. Using the following random numbers.

61, 74, 24, 3, 59, 16, 84, 92, 52 & 7.

Q2. A manufacturing company keep stock of a special product. Previous experience indicates
the daily demand as given below:-

Daily 5 10 15 20 25 30
Demand
Probability 0.01 0.20 0.1 0.50 0.12 .02
5

Simulate the demand for the next 10 days and also find the daily average demand for that
product on the basis of given random number.

82, 96, 18, 96, 20, 84, 56, 11, 52 & 3.

Q3. An automobile production line turns out a about 100 cars a day. But deviation occurs due
to many causes. The production is more accurately describe by the probability distribution
given below

Production per 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105

day
Probability 0.03 0.0 0.07 0.10 0.1 0.20 0.15 0.1 0.07 0.0 0.03
5 5 0 5

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Finished cars are transported across the day at the end of each day ferry. If the ferry has a
space for only 101 cars. What will be the average no of cars waiting to be transported and
what will be the average no of empty space on the ship.

Q4. Doctor Amit is a dentist he gave appointment to patient every half hour, however he does
not know the nature. If illness of patient arriving at this clinic, from past record he has the
following probability
distribution Nature of Probability Time taken for treatment and also know
the exact Illness treatment
Filling 0.10 50
timing. He starts clinic at
Checkup 0.30 15
8 AM. Using the
Crowning 0.15 40
information Cleaning 0.30 15 determine the
average Extraction 0.15 30 waiting time of
the customer and idle time
of the doctor.

Event Probability
No rain 0.50
1 cm 0.25
rain
Random numbers: 56, 40, 26, 2 cm 0.15 66, 87, 48, 17, 22, 04, 15
rain
Q5. The occurrence of a rain in 3 cm 0.05 a city on a day is dependent
upon whether it rained on the rain previous day. If it rained on the
previous day, the rain 4 cm 0.03 distribution is given by:
rain
5 cm 0.02
rain
Event Probability
No rain 0.75
1 cm 0.15
rain
2 cm 0.06
rain
3 cm 0.04
rain

It did not rain the previous day, the rain distribution is given by:

2
Simulates the city weather for Sales (Units) Probability 10 days and determine by
simulation the total days 27 0.10 without rain as well as the
28 0.15
total rainfall during the period. Using the following random
29 0.20
numbers
30 0.35
67, 63, 39, 55, 29, 78, 70, 06, 31 0.15 78, 76
32 0.05
For simulation. Assume that for the first day of the simulation it had not rained the day
before.

Q6. A company manufactures 30 units per day. The sale of these items depend upon demand
which has the following distribution.

The production cost and sale price of each unit are Rs. 40 & Rs. 50 respectively. Any unsold
product is to be disposed off at a loss of Rs. 15 per unit. There is a penalty of Rs. 5 per unit if
the demand is not met.

Using the following random numbers, estimate the total profit/loss for the company for the
next 10 days.

10, 99, 65, 99, 95, 01, 79, 11, 16, 20

If the company decides to produce 29 units per day, what is the advantage or disadvantage of
the company?

Q7. The tit – fit scientific laboratories is engaged in producing different types of high class
equipments for use in science laboratories. The company has two different assembly lines to
produce its most popular product ‘Pressure X’. The processing time for each of the assembly
line is regarded as a random variable and is described by the following distributions.

Process Time (minutes) Assembly A1 Assembly A2

10 0.10 0.20
11 0.15 0.40
12 0.40 0.20

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 13 0.25 0.15
14 0.10 0.05

Using the following random numbers, generate data on the process time for 15 units of the
item and compute the expected process time for the product. For the purpose read the number
vertically ranking on the first two digits for the processing time on assembly A 1 and the last
two digits for processing time on assembly A2.

4134, 8343, 3602, 7505, 7428

7476, 1183, 9445, 0089, 3424

4943, 1915, 5415, 0880, 9309

Q8. The management of ABC Company is considering the question of marketing a new
product. The fixed cost required in the project is Rs. 4,000. Three factors are uncertain viz.
The selling price, variable cost and the annual sales volume. The product jas a life of only
one year. The management has the data on these three factors are as under:

Selling Price Variable Cost Probabilit Sales Volume

Probability Probability
(Rs) (Rs.) y (units)
3 0.2 1 0.3 2000 0.3
4 0.5 2 0.6 3000 0.3
5 0.3 3 0.1 5000 0.4

Consider the following sequence of thirty random number:

81 32 60 : 04 46 31 : 67 25 24 : 10 40 02 : 39 68 08
59 66 90 : 12 64 79 : 31 86 68 : 82 89 25 : 11 98 16

Using the sequence (first three random numbers for the first trial etc). Simulate the average
profit for the above project on the basis of 10 trials.