Probability tal probability rom tabled data ‘Theoretical probability ‘Compound events Conditional probability ‘Mutually exclusive and independent events‘When Karla dropped some metal mis she noticed that they finshed either on thee or on the ies, She vas intrested t0 know hos likely i was that a mut ‘would finish on its end. So, she tossed a mut 20 mes, ‘nd found that inished om its end 157 times Her frend Sam repeated the experiment, and the nut finished on is end 145 vines ‘Things to think about: ‘2 What would Karla's best estimate be ofthe chance ‘or probability that the nut wil fnish on is end? {© What would Sam's estimate be? {© How can we obiain better estimate of the chance of an end ‘occuring? ‘d_ Hilda sid that the best estimate would be obtained when the nut is tossed thousands of times. Do you agree with Hilda? ead Consider these statements “The Wideats wil probably beat the Tigers on Saturday. 1s unlikely that it wil rain toa. 1 wil probably make the team ach ofthese statements indicates a Ukelinood or chance ofa particular event happening, ‘We can indicate the likelihood ofan event happening in the future by using a percentage (0% indicates the event will not occur. 100% indicates the event is eertain to occu. All events can therefore he assigned a percentage between 0% and 1005 inclusive A number close to 0% indicates the event is unlikely to occur, whereas a number else to 100% means ‘hat itis highly Hkely to occu In mathematics, we usally write probabilities as either imals or factions rather than percetages ‘An impossible event has 0% chance of happening, and is assigned the probability 0. ‘A certain event has 100% chance of happening and is assigned the probability 1. All other evens canbe assigned a probebiliy between 0 and 1 Probabilities are usually determined by either: + observing the results ofan experiment (experimental probability), or + using arguments of symmetry (dheoretial probability)lame Cardano (1501 1576) admited in his autobiography’ that he gambled "not only every yea, but ‘every day, and withthe loss at once of thought, of substance, land of time", He wrote «handbook on gambling wit ips on cheating and how to detect it. His book included discussion on ‘equally likely events, frequency tables for dice probabilities, and expectations, + Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749 - 1827) once described the theory ‘of probability as “nothing but common sense reduced 10 culation’ Blaise Pascal (1623 - 1662) invented the first mechanical ligt caleulatorPaseal and his friend Pierre de Fermat (1601 - 1665) were the fist 0 develop probability theory as we know it today, Pascal also developed the syringe andthe hydraulic press, and he wrote a large number of acles on (Christian beliefs and ethics, In experiments involving chance, results we are obtaining se the following terms to describe what we re doing and the ‘©The number of trials isthe total numberof times the experiment is repeated, ‘+ The outcomes are the different results possible for one tial of the experiment ‘+The frequency ofa particular outcome isthe numberof times that this outcome is observed. ‘+The roative frequency of an outcome is the frequency of that outcome divided bythe total umber of tral. Its expressed as ether a fraction, a decimal, ota percentage For example, suppose atin can is tossed inthe air 250 times, = and it comes to test on an end 20 times. We sy ‘the numberof trial is 250, f 1 the outcomes are ends and sides i 4 the fequeney of end is 29, and of sides is 21 4 the relative frequency of ends: = 2 = 0.116 erie foquency of sider = Hf} = 0.884 EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Sometimes the only way of estimating the probability ofa particular event occurring by experimentation Tossing a tn canis one such example, The relative frequencies from an experiment can be used to estimate the probabilities ofthe corresponding events The larger the numberof tals, the more accurate the estimate will beLarisa took 43 shots at @ netball goal, and scored 29 times. Estimate the probability that Larissa wil mss with her next shot rom 43 shots, Larissa scored 29 times and missed 14 times. 326 (misses net shot) EXERCISE 134 1 Clem fired 200 arrows at @ taget and hit the target 108 times. Estimate the probability that Clem will hit he target with his next so 2 ny has free-range hens. Out of the frst 128 eggs that they li, she found that 11 had double-yolks. Estimate the probability thatthe next egg lid will have a double-yolk 2 Jackson leaves for work atthe same time each day. Over ' period of 227 working days, he had to wait for a tain at the rallway crossing on 58 days, Estimate the probability that Jackson will not have to Wait for a train tomorow. 44. Rayi has a cireular spinner marked P,Q, and R. When te spinner was twitled 17 tims, i finished ‘on P 198 times, and on Q 107 times. Estimate the probability thatthe next spin wil finish on R 5 Answer the Opening Problem on page 278. [En BR PRwawITiEs FROM TABLED DATA I we are given a table of fequencies then we use relative frequencies to estimate the probabilities of the evens frequency relative frequency = ‘amenet = amber of 'A marketing company surveys 80 people to discover what brand of| shoe cleaner they use. The results ae shown in the table alongside. Estimate the probability that randomly selected community member 2 Brite 1b Cleano or No seul: aan oer 1 P(Cleanoo€ No seu ~ 24 = 0.388 |PROBABILITIES FROM TWO-WAY TABLES ‘Two-way tables are tables comparing two variables. They usally result rom a survey, For example, the Year 10 students ina smal school were asked whether they were good a mathematics. The results ae summarised in the following two-way table i [19 8 [9 |-—2 girls were not good at mathematics. In this case the variables are abit in mathematics and gender We can use two-way tables to estimate probabilits. k= ——~“‘“ ‘“‘ONUTUOCOWUW EE "To investigate the breakfast habits of teenagers, a survey was conducted amongst ‘some students from a high LAS School. The results are shown alongside e | 2 ‘Use this table to estimate the probability that a randomly selected student fom the schoo: 2 is mile is male and regulary cats breakfast. Is female or regularly eats breakfast. We extend the table to include totals: 4 Tae a 195 als anon 30 sans saree. Pinas) 2 = 0517 1b 87 of te 300 stents are male and regulary eat bret P(mate and regularly cats breakfast) =» $0.29 © 53492487 =282 out ofthe 300 ar female or regularly, eat breakfast. Peo ety ca reat) ~ 22 0.79 EXERCISE 138 1A marketing company surveyed people to discover which brand of soap they use. The resus of the survey are given alongside How many people were surveyed? 1 Estimate the probebily that «randomly elected person uses: 1 Just Soop I Indulgence or Sitkiouch,2 This table shows the flavour of ice creams sold in a caf6 one afternoon ‘8 How many ice creams were sold? 1b Esimate the probability thatthe next icecream sold willbe: 1 strawberry chocolate or vanilla, Results from a poll for a local Council election are shown in the table. I known that 600 people were surveyed in the pol 2 Copy and complete the table. 'b Estimate the probability that a randomly selected person from this electorate will vote fr 1 John Heary Wa fom 4-310 studens ata high school in South Africa were surveyed fn the question "Do you like watchin The results are shown in the two-way table. _ eee 8 Copy and complete the table to include ‘totals’. ea a Bikes watching rugby on TV and is senior student Wilkos watching rugby on TV. «Find the total of the probabilities found in 6. Explain your answer 5 Arandom selection of students ina youth club were asked whether they wore glasses, contact Tenses, of neither, The results were futher is £ 2 catogorised by gender 1 5 3 1 How many studens were surveyed? 1 Etimate the probability that a randomly chosen student inthe elu 1 wears glasses 1 is female and wears contact lenses {Wis male and wears neither I is female or wears glasses. {6 The table alongside describes the types of eas advertised for sale im a newspoper nie a [timate the probability that a randomly selected ear for sale ’ | 39 isa sedan bis e manual hatchback a zi « is automatic, but not a sedan.7A random selection of hotels in Paris are given ‘gold star rating for quality, and a green star for environmental friendliness. Estimate the probability thts randomly selected Pais hotel is piven con 2-2 gold stars and 4 groen stars star © 5 gold stars or higher € the same numberof gold stars as gren stars 4 more green stars than gold stars. 8 Thetable alongside gives the age distribution of inmates in a prison on December $1, 2011 Aes eee oc ea ‘Age_] Female [Male | Total ‘A new prisoner entered the prison on January 1, 2012, e the probability that: = 9 8 = REE ols (3) 3 we] x» | a| a © te rime rsa 17 19 ays |sx| nes «Ge romer wo 19 or mind vas ema 4: he prsne as age om 301040 anvas male. aga] 2 | mo | as 35-39] 31 | 520 | 551 40-49) 24 | sox | iz so-so] 16 | 201 | 250 or | 5 | 14s | 15s Toul | 216 | as22 | 5038 Global Pores - een es) Bee SAMPLE SPACE A sample space isthe set of all possible outcomes of an experiment Possible ways of representing sample spaces are: «listing them using a 2-dimensional grid using tee diagram using a Venn diagram.J funpies J Ty ‘When two coins are tossed, the possible outcomes are to heads head and tal tail and head two tals Represent the sample space for tossing two coins using: a alist b a2Derid ate diagram, We let H representa “head” and T represent “tal, @ (HH, HT, TH, TT} © 4 coin2 tei oom, I art 1 tae | 4 sein} SS ee | ane a | IMustrate, using a tree diagram, the posible outcomes when drawing two marbles from a bag contin red, groen, and yellow marbles. Let R be the event of getting a re, robe marble? G be the event of getting «green, and Y be the event of getting a yellow mes List the sample space forthe following: 2 bviling a square spinner labelled A, B,C, D 1 the genders ofa 2-cild family € the order in which 4 blocks A, B,C, and D can be lined up 4 the 8 diferent 2-child families. tossing acoin 1 twice ‘tee times il four times. Use a 2dimensional grid to illustrate the sample space fr: 2 rolling die and tossing coin simultaneously rolling 10 dicePROBABILITY (Capi 13) 285 « roling a ie and spinning a spinner with sides A, B, CD 4. switing two square spinners, one labelled A, B,C, D, and the other 1, 2, 3,4 3 Musteate ona woe diagram the sample space for: {tossing a S-cent and 10-cent coin simultaneously tossing a coin and twising an equilateral triangular spinner labelled A, B, and C twirling two equlsteral triangular spinners Ibelled 1, 2, 3, and X, Y,Z respectively ‘and white tickets b 4 deawing two tickets from a hat containing pin, blue © solctng bag A or bag B, then drawing a ball fom that bag. Baga Bag 4 Draw a Venn diagram to show a class of 20 students in which 7 study History and Geog 10 study History, and 15 study Geography. oo TY (Once we have represented the sample space af an experiment, we can use itt calulate probabilities. apy fast poms isha equally ayo osc wen he eprint pred one, ten ash ose as prtbity of cca ‘An event occurs when we obiain an outcome witha paicular property’ or feature When the outcomes ofan experiment are equally likely, the probability of an event E occuring is aiven by: umber of outcomes corresponding to E PP) = umier of outcome in the sample space fe ee ‘Suppose thre coin ae tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting 4 three heads 1 at least one head. ‘The possible outcomes ae: {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}. ‘There ae 8 posible outcomes, 1 — three heads only occurs inthe outcome HHH 4 Mrs heads) = j — 8 pole outcomes 1 all outcomes except TTT contain a least one head 5 —8 possible outcomes 1 Plat lest one head)EXERCISE 13D 1 The thee letters O, D, and G are placed at random ina row. Find the probability of 2 spelling DOG 1 0 appearing fst | © O not appearing first 4. speling DOG or GoD. | 12 Determine the probability that a randomly selected 3- rolling a prime number > rlling a result greater than 3 List the pairs of events which are mutually exclusive, 2 A coin and an ordinary die are tossed and rolled simultaneously ‘8 Draw a grid showing the 12 possible outcomes 1 Let A be the event “tossing a head’ and B be the event rolling a5 i Are A and 2 mutually exclusive? Explain your answer ' W Find P(A or B) and P(A and B), Wh Check that P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ~ P(A and B), 2 Suppose P(A) =0.7, P(B) 1 Are A and J mutually exclusive evens? Explain your answer. Find P(A or B). ! 2, and P(A and B) = 0.5 44 Suppose P(X) = 0.3. and P(X of ¥) = 0.7. Given that X' and Yate mutually exclusive, find PCY). 5 Suppose P(C 6 Let P(A) =04 and P(B)=0.25. Find P(A and #8) given that A and B ar: ‘2 mutually exclusive independent. =06 and P(D)=0.7. Explain why C and D are not mutually exclusive X and Y are independent events such that P(X’) 5 and P(Y) =0.3. Find P(X or Y) A and Bae independent events such that P(A of H) =0.9 and P(A and B) = 04. Find P(A) tnd P(B) given that P(A) > P(B) PSE AameLY ¥ Donna kept records of the number of elieats she interviewed over consecutive days a For how many days did Donna keep records? ‘Estimate the probability that tomorrow Donna will 1 no clients four or mor cients Less than thee cients 2 A coin and a pentagonal spinner with sides labelled A, B, C, D, and F are tossed and spun ‘simultaneously, Husrate the possible outcomes using a 2-dimensionl grid landed on their backs, and 82 landed on ther sides. Estimate, to 2 decimal places, the probability ofa drawing pin landing: 2 on its back 1 omits side er reece eee ala tocki ‘4A wheel numbered 1 to 20 i spun 1: Find the probability that the result i au amutiple of 3 ‘© greater than 11 5 Ona particular day, 500 people visited a camival. 300 people rode the Feris wheel, and 350 people rode the rollercoaster. Each person rode at least one ofthese atractions. {Display this information on a Venn diagram 1b Fin the probability tht randomly chosen person 1 rode the Fertis wheel, but not the rollercoaster rode the rollercoaster, given that they rode the Ferris whee. {6 A-bag contains 4 green and 3 red marbles, Two marbles are randomly selevted from the bag, te fst being put to one sie before the second is drawn. Determine the probability that both are green 1 they are different in colour 7 A chess pice is placed on a random square of an 8 x 8 chess board, A second piece is then placed a random on one ‘ofthe unocepied squares. Find the probobiiy tha 18 the two pices ie om the same row © the pieces lie on the same row or column {8 Brothers Paul, Cameron, and Bruce play inthe same rugby team, Their probabilies of gotting injured during the season are .4, 0.8, and 0.2 respectively: What isthe most ikely numb of injured brothers during the season? {9A married couple own a large car and small eat Glen uses the small ear 30% of the time, When he goes to the shops the probability tht he can pak inthe ear park is 80% i he asthe smal ar, and 0% if he has the large ear: Find the probability tha, ona given day, Geni able to park in the shops ar park 10 The two-way table alongside describes the books on Elizabeth's bookshelf ‘4 How many books are on Blizabeth’s 3_| 2 bookshell? E i a 1 Find the probability that a randomly selected book is: 1 a softcover book Wa hardcover reference book {Hh novel, given that it has a hard cover.11 A ball is selected from box A and placed in box B. A ball is then elected from box B, and placed in bor CA bal isthe selected from bor € Find he probably ht he als blue. Z BoxB Boxe 18 Tyson bas one of cach ip of Assi coin I oct. He ranlonly st fo oie Bors peck replcing the ist coin before slong the oa @ Deawa2-dimesonal gid dsply te ponsle ‘Teens 0a Ses 1b Find the probabity that 1 both coins are silver at least one of the coins isthe 50 cent coin @ Wi the value of the coins i atleast 65 cents ola jven thatthe valuo ofthe coins is at least 5 cents, find the probebility that at Test one af the coins is gold. 12 Let P(A) =02 and P(B)=07. Find P(A and B) sven that A and Bare 2 mutually exclusive 1 independent 1 Pierre conducted survey to determine the ages of people walking through & shopping mall. The resuls are shown in the table slongside. Estimate the probability thatthe next person Pierre meets in the shopping mall willbe: 4 between 20 and 39 years of age bb ess than 40 years of age € at least 20 yeas of age. 2 Use o tre diagram to illustrate the sample spaces forthe following: {8 Bags A, B, and C contain green and yellow tickets. A bag is solected and then a ticket taken from it 1 Martina and Justine play tenis. The fis to win tre sets wins the match, 22 The two-way table alongside shows the results from asking the question “Do you ike the school uniform?” If « student is randomly selected fiom these year groups, ‘estimate the probability thatthe student: 8 ike the school uniform 1 dislikes the school niform € sin Year 8 and dislikes the uniform,10 PROBABILITY (Cope 13)__308 The digits 1,6, and 9 are placed in random onder to create a digit number. Find the probability that this number wil be perfect square [A farmer fences his rectangular property into 9 rectangular paddocks 38 shown ‘A paddock is selected at random. Find the probability that it has ano fees on the boundary ofthe property 1b one fence onthe boundary of the property wo fences on the Boundary ofthe propery A paper plate is tossed in the sir 50 times. It lands fave up 37 times, and lands fae down, 1a times ‘Estimate the probability that the paper plat wil land face up next Gime iis thrown. 'b fhe plate is tossed in the ae three times, estimate the probability that the plate will and face down onal thre occasions. Bag X contains thee white and two red marbles. Bag Y contains one white and three red marbles. A bag is randomly chosen, and two marbles are drawn from it 1 Tusrte the given information on a tee diagram. 'b Determine the probability of drawing two marbles of the same colour [A knife block contains 6 knives of diferent sizes. Each knife fs =, exactly into its specific hoe, and wil ls fit into the holes of larger kaives. Suppose a knife is chosen at random, and a hole inthe Knife block fs chosen at random. Find the probability that the knife will ft in the hole, Matthew is taking a mathematic test, There is 22% chance that his ealeulator will not work. If his calculator works, Matthew has a 70% probability of passing the test. If his calculator does ot work, Matthew has «55% probability of passing the test Find the probability that Matthew passs the test “The spinners alongside are each spun once. Given that the spins are the same colout, find the probability that they are Both red, [Events A, B, and C are all mutually exclusive with each othe, P(A or B) = 05, P(E or C)=0.T5, and P(A or C) =0.55. Find the probability of each event occurring” Shelley draws 3 cards without replacement fom the a conttner alongside, She will win a prize if all 8 cards ae the same colour ‘a Find the probability that Shelley will win a prize 1 Suppose the rules change so that Shelley ow draws | hot cards with replacement. 1 Do you think this increases or decreases her probability of winning? Explain your Find the probability of Shelley winning, In a weighting competition, 3 competitors ate sgiven one chance to if a weight of thei choosing The table alongside shows the weights chosen by each competitor and their probability of iting it The winner is the competitor who successfully lifts the greatest weight. IF nobody lis their weight, the competition iste 8 Find the probability tha: 1 thor W Ruslan Bebdad will win the competition, 1b thor ie considering increasing his weight to 250 kg, so he i lifting more than Ruslan. 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