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    Thayer Putin's Visit To Vietnam - Quick Take

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    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    This Background Brief addresses five questions: how big of a publicity coup was Putin’s visit? What is the reaction of the U.S. and European Commission to the visuals of Putin’s visit to Hanoi, will Vietnam face any repercussions? Did Putin’s visit achieve anything of substance? What are the notably outcomes of Putin’s visit?

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    Thayer Putin's Visit To Vietnam - Quick Take

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    Carlyle Alan Thayer
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    This Background Brief addresses five questions: how big of a publicity coup was Putin’s visit? What is the reaction of the U.S. and European Commission to the visuals of Putin’s visit to Hanoi, will Vietnam face any repercussions? Did Putin’s visit achieve anything of substance? What are the notably outcomes of Putin’s visit?

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    Thayer Putin’s Visit to Vietnam –Quick Take

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    This Background Brief addresses five questions: how big of a publicity coup was Putin’s visit? What is the reaction of the U.S. and European Commission to the visuals of Putin’s visit to Hanoi, will Vietnam face any repercussions? Did Putin’s visit achieve anything of substance? What are the notably outcomes of Putin’s visit?

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    83 views3 pages

    Thayer Putin's Visit To Vietnam - Quick Take

    Uploaded by

    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    This Background Brief addresses five questions: how big of a publicity coup was Putin’s visit? What is the reaction of the U.S. and European Commission to the visuals of Putin’s visit to Hanoi, will Vietnam face any repercussions? Did Putin’s visit achieve anything of substance? What are the notably outcomes of Putin’s visit?

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 3

    Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

    ABN # 65 648 097 123


    Putin’s Visit to Vietnam –Quick
    Take
    June 20, 2024

    Could you provide an quick take on President Putin’s visit to Vietnam, now that is has
    officially concluded?
    Q1. How big of a publicity coup does Vietnam's welcome represent to Putin?
    ANSWER: President Putin’s state visit to Vietnam will be viewed by the Russian
    establishment as a whopping success coming immediately after his lavish reception in
    North Korea.
    Putin was given a traditional 21-gun salute and an honour guard on arrival in Hanoi;
    school children and others waved Russian and Vietnamese flags as his convoy was
    whisked through the streets of Hanoi. Putin’s reception in Hanoi did not have the
    bellicose connotations of his visit to Pyongyang. His visit to Beijing was also marked by
    pomp and ceremony.
    President Putin met and held talks with his counterpart, newly installed President To
    Lam who congratulated him on his recent re-election Putin also met with party
    Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and the new
    Chairman of the National Assembly, Tran Thanh Man. All this will play well to Putin’s
    domestic audience back in Russia.
    Putin’s triumphal reception in Hanoi will mark a counter-point to Russia’s recent set
    back – the Ukraine peace conference held in Switzerland, the Group of 7 summit in
    Italy that piled more sanctions on Russia, and the recent decision by the European
    Union to transfer seized Russian funds to Ukraine.
    There are around a dozen countries Putin can visit that have not signed on to the
    International Criminal Court which issued an arrest warrant for war crimes against
    him. Putin and Russian propaganda machine will play on the theme that western
    attempts to isolate Russia are not working.
    Q2. The U.S. and to lesser extent EU have criticised this visit on the record. Now that
    they have seen Putin get the same treatment that Joe Biden received what do you
    think the mood and reaction will be in Washington and Brussels to the visuals coming
    out of Hanoi?
    ANSWER: The U.S. was first to respond before the visit, castigating Vietnam for
    allowing Putin freedom to travel. Biden Administration officials likely feel a sense of
    resignation.
    2

    Vietnam’s President met with U.S. Ambassador Marc Knapper in a=svance of Putin’s
    arrival to reassure him of Vietnam’s desire to develop bilateral relations including
    defence and security cooperation.
    The EU, which negotiated a free trade agreement with Vietnam, was chagrined after
    Vietnam declined to meet with their envoy in charge of overseeing sanctions with
    Vietnam.
    Q3. Do you think Vietnam will face any repercussions? Why or why not?
    ANSWER: Both the United States and Europe will find it easier to express their
    disapproval verbally than take punitive action against a country they have so heavily
    invested in recently. The U.S. and EU will pick up where they left off and take a long-
    term view of the relationship.
    The U.S. and EU also will be constrained by their far right extremists who do not
    support Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression. The U.S. and EU will find it easier to
    attack Putin and Russia than rupture their relations with Vietnam. Their best strategy
    is to let the dust settle and keep building trust with Vietnam through trade and
    investment and science and technology cooperation.
    Q4. Did Putin achieve anything of substance in Vietnam (vs. North Korea) or was just
    being there and welcomed the big achievement?
    ANSWER: The devil is in the detail. The Russia-Vietnam comprehensive strategic
    partnership was in need of shoring up after the COVID-19 pandemic and Western
    sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine. Russia and Vietnam signed eleven
    agreements covering bilateral cooperation under their comprehensive strategic
    partnership including Russian investment in liquified natural gas projects in Vietnam,
    cooperation agreements on education, science and technology and public health and
    a memorandum of cooperation on a schedule establishing a nuclear technology centre
    in Vietnam etc.
    Q5. And anything else that might be relevant for our quick-take analysis?
    ANSWER: There are two other outcomes of Putin’s visit to note. The first was
    agreement by presidents Putin and To Lam to develop “a reliable security
    architecture” in the Asia-Pacific Region in place of “closed-military-political blocs.”
    Secondly, and little noticed, was President To Lam’s statement that the two countries
    will increase cooperation in defence and security in non-traditional security.
    So far few details have been disclosed about the vexed problem of a rouble-đồng
    currency exchange mechanism to pay for goods and services that evades sanctions in
    the SWIFT system. At a joint press conference after the meeting, Presidents Putin and
    To Lam pledged to “overcome adverse global economic challenges to intensify
    bilateral trade and investment, support key energy and oil projects and facilitate the
    two countries’ expansion of business and investments…” In a separate remark,
    President Putin “highlighted the increasing use of local currencies in bilateral
    transactions facilitated by the Vietnam-Russia Joint Venture Bank…” On the surface
    these comments relate to commercial transactions but could also be used for future
    Vietnamese arms procurements.
    3

    Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Putin’s Visit to Vietnam –Quick Take,” Thayer
    Consultancy Background Brief, June 20, 2024. All background briefs are posted on
    Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
    UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

    Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
    other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
    registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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