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BSA CORE 1

MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

MODULE 7
Monday

COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R2)

Coefficient of determination or R-squared (R2) is a statistical measure that


represents the proportion of the variance for a dependent variable that's
explained by an independent variable or variables in a regression model.
o Whereas correlation explains the strength of the relationship between an
independent and dependent variable, R-squared explains to what extent
the variance of one variable explains the variance of the second variable.
 So, if the R2 of a model is 0.50, then approximately half of the
observed variation can be explained by the model.

The coefficient of determination (R²) is a number between 0 and 1 that


measures how well a statistical model predicts an outcome.
o The model does not predict the outcome.
 Between 0 and 1, the model partially predicts the outcome.
o The model perfectly predicts the outcome.
 The coefficient of determination is often written as R2, which is
pronounced as “r squared.”
 For simple linear regressions, a lowercase r is usually used
instead (r2).

The coefficient of determination (R²) measures how well a statistical model


predicts an outcome.
o The outcome is represented by the model’s dependent variable.
 The lowest possible value of R² is 0 and the highest possible value
is 1.
 Put simply, the better a model is at making predictions, the closer
its R² will be to 1.

o Example: Coefficient of determination


 Imagine that you perform a simple linear regression that predicts
students’ exam scores (dependent variable) from their time spent
studying (independent variable).

Sources:
Turney, Shaun. 2022. Coefficient of Determination (R²) | Calculation & Interpretation.
https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/coefficient-of-determination
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp
 If the R2 is 0, the linear regression model doesn’t allow you
to predict exam scores any better than simply estimating that
everyone has an average exam score.
 If the R2 is between 0 and 1, the model allows you to
partially predict exam scores.

 The model’s estimates are not perfect, but they’re better than
simply using the average exam score.
 If the R2 is 1, the model allows you to perfectly predict
anyone’s exam score.

 More technically, R2 is a measure of goodness of fit.


 It is the proportion of variance in the dependent variable that
is explained by the model.

Graphing your linear regression data usually gives you a good clue as to whether
its R2 is high or low.
o For example, the graphs below show two sets of simulated data:
 The observations are shown as dots.
 The model’s predictions (the line of best fit) are shown as a black
line.
 The distance between the observations and their predicted values
(the residuals) are shown as purple lines.
 You can see in the first dataset that when the R2 is high, the
observations are close to the model’s predictions.
 In other words, most points are close to the line of best fit.

Sources:
Turney, Shaun. 2022. Coefficient of Determination (R²) | Calculation & Interpretation.
https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/coefficient-of-determination
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp
The coefficient of determination is always positive, even when the correlation is
negative.
o In contrast, you can see in the second dataset that when the R2 is low, the
observations are far from the model’s predictions.
 In other words, when the R2 is low, many points are far from the
line of best fit.

Sources:
Turney, Shaun. 2022. Coefficient of Determination (R²) | Calculation & Interpretation.
https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/coefficient-of-determination
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp

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