Renewable Power 100: The Necessity and Possibility to Reach

100% Renewable Electricity System in Taiwan

Executive Summary

Energy transition policy needs long term planning with continuous communication
in place.

Although our lives are closely connected to energy, for a long time, the choice of energy
has been insufficient because of technological thresholds and highly sensitive nature
concerning politics, which has led to the lack of an in-depth understanding of energy
issues of the public.

In the absence of consensus among people, the government was reluctant to put forward
political commitments and longer-term energy goals. The consequence is that during the
referendum in 2018, many people cast their sacred ballots with less than desired
knowledge of energy. Also, the result of the referendum led to more disagreement on the
pathway of renewable energy. The divergence expanded even more after the referendum.

Reluctantly, we have to admit that complex technical issues are like barbed wires, turning
down the public's willingness to participating in energy policy debate and limiting people’s
imagination to Taiwan's sustainable development scenario.

Nowadays, the comment has been widely seen everywhere --“​Without a technical
background, you are not qualified to talk about energy.​ ” This should never be welcomed in
a democratic society, which is aired as Taiwan ’s core value.

Like other 350.org network organizations, 350 Taiwan has shrined “​a fast and just
transition to 100% renewable energy for all​” as a pillar in our organization. Also, we believe
in the importance of civil society's "bottom-up" and substantial participation in long-term
energy policy decision making.

Therefore, we decided to start this study to explore exactly how much potential renewable
energy has in Taiwan to generate electricity. We’d hope to rebuild the general public's
basic knowledge and win their trust in renewable energy with the result of this report, so
they can believe that renewable energy has the potential to become Taiwan's main source
of electricity.

Although our lives are closely connected to energy, for a long time, the choice of energy
has been insufficient because of technological thresholds and highly sensitive nature
concerning politics, which has led to the lack of an in-depth understanding of energy
issues of the public.

In the absence of consensus among people, the government was reluctant to put forward
political commitments and longer-term energy goals. The consequence is that during the
referendum in 2018, many people cast their sacred ballots with less than desired
knowledge of energy. Also, the result of the referendum led to more disagreement on the
pathway of renewable energy. The divergence expanded even more after the referendum.

Reluctantly, we have to admit that complex technical issues are like barbed wires, turning
down the public's willingness to participating in energy policy debate and limiting people’s
imagination to Taiwan's sustainable development scenario.

Nowadays, the comment has been widely seen everywhere --“​Without a technical
background, you are not qualified to talk about energy​.” This should never be welcomed in
a democratic society, which is aired as Taiwan ’s core value.

Like other 350.org network organizations, 350 Taiwan has shrined “​a fast and just
transition to 100% renewable energy for all”​ as a pillar in our organization. Also, we believe
in the importance of civil society's "bottom-up" and substantial participation in long-term
energy policy decision making.

Therefore, we decided to start this study to explore exactly how much potential renewable
energy has in Taiwan to generate electricity. We’d hope to rebuild the general public's
basic knowledge and win their trust in renewable energy with the result of this report, so
they can believe that renewable energy has the potential to become Taiwan's main source
of electricity.

How do we take inventory for the seemly unlimited natural resources?

In order to answer the question "​How much electricity can renewable energy generate in
Taiwan annually?"​ and further answer "​How much can renewable energy meet Taiwan's
electricity demand?"​ We have separately analyzed solar, wind, and geothermal.

To calculate the potential of solar and wind power generation, this report integrates:
(1) the national government's land data to explore how much land resources can be used
for renewable energy construction; and
(2) meteorological data to convert weather variables to power generation

We hope to guide our readers to rethink whether renewable energy has the opportunity to
be the main source of electricity through streamlined calculations, and understand why
Taiwan has the chance to develop a 100% renewable electricity system. We also look
forward to urging the government to make its political commitment and propose a
"long-term energy policy" beyond 2025.

Renewable power potential in Taiwan: Having enough to power two Taiwans.

After referring to many renewable energy models, we believe that in order to let the public
to understand the generating potential of renewable energy in Taiwan, to streamline and
merge variables as much as possible is necessary. Finally, we examine three renewable
energy types -- solar, wind and geothermal. The total power generation potential is
calculated as below:
Solar Energy

According to the current policy and common setting categories, it can be roughly divided
into two types: ​Rooftop Solar and ​Ground Mounted Solar​. This report carried out an
inventory of national land for construction. It counted around 67,000 hectares of potential
construction area in total. At the same time, this data has taken into account the building
coverage ratio of various types of land and the exclusion of shaded areas.

Based on the inventory of the land data, this study further distinguishes two methods for
calculating the physical potential: "estimations from satellite data" (estimated approach)
and "average power generation by municipalities and counties (cities)" (historic approach).

The former is based on solar power plant power generation data and is compared with
weather satellite data to formulate the entire solar power generation potential; the later is
calculated based on the county’s capacity factor (the annual average daily power
generation) announced by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2014.

Based on these two calculation methods, it can be found that solar energy in Taiwan,
which is located in the subtropics, can provide considerable power generation.

Wind Power

According to the current policies and common setting categories, wind power can be
roughly categorized into two types: ​offshore ​and ​land-based​.

Unlike solar energy, which corresponds to the land area, the wind power generation is
calculated based on the wind fields and the amounted swept areas.

In this report, the amounted swept areas of offshore wind and land-based wind turbines
are taken into account, and the total power generation potential is calculated based on the
wind speed data.

As the undeveloped area for terrestrial wind power turbines construction is barely available
now, the current annual generation for land-based is approximately 1.70 billion kWh; as for
offshore wind power, this report calculates the potential in two scenarios: “Proactive
Scenario (88.684 billion kWh)” and “Conservative Scenario (36.986 billion degrees)”.

In conclusion, the current maximum total power generation is either 38.68 billion kWh
(Conservative Scenario) or 90.38 billion kWh (Proactive Scenario).

Geothermal

Compared with wind and solar energy, the current practice of geothermal in Taiwan is still
inadequate, and the related data can only be accessed through academic research that is
generally accepted, foreign commercialized technologies, and Taiwan geological
exploration results.

Since the weather is not an important factor for geothermal, this study did not include
weather factors in the assessment of total geothermal power. At present, after calculating
about 75% of the conversion factor, the total amount of electricity that can be generated is
2312.64 billion degrees.

In Conclusion

Based on this research, Taiwan's annual total renewable power generation potential can
reach 468.35 billion kWh. In the context of the conservative development of offshore wind,
Taiwan's renewable energy has the potential to generate 416.602 billion kWh of electricity.

Compared with the total electricity consumption of 219.1 billion kWh in 2018, the total
supply potential exceeds the total demand by approximately 249.2 billion kWh. Meaning,
the calculated total potential of renewable energy generation can meet the needs of
Taiwan’s electricity consumption by 1.76 to 2.14 times.

The technical assumption of this study is the total amount of assessment based on
“commercially available technologies". Also, due to the pursuit of “just transition”, all
ecologically and socially sensitive lands are excluded in available land for construction. In
other words, despite considerable power generation potential, the current assessment of
total power generation potential is still conservative.

Policy is a guidance for transformation, and society cannot forward without a long
term goal.

Currently, the only long-term energy policy of the government is "2025 Non-Nuclear
Homeland" and the 2030 offshore wind power target derived from the "non-nuclear
homeland" policy.

According to the capacity target set by the "2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland" policy, only
48.36 billion kWh electricity is produced. Even with the 2030 energy target (25%
renewable energy ), it is only a short or medium-term plan for 10 years. This ambition far
lags behind if compared with those with the carbon reduction and energy targets proposed
by other countries after 2050.

Compared with a record high of 219.1 billion kWh of electricity in 2018, renewable energy
under the Non-Nuclear Home policy of 2025 can only meet 22% of the national electricity
demand.

In fact, hundreds of cities and regions in more than 50 countries around the world have
promised to reach the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation in various ways.
For example, Fukushima in Japan set its goal to reach 100% renewable energy power
generation by 2040; Scotland set its national energy goal to achieve 100% renewable
energy consumption by 2020.

In addition, some of the world-leading companies required all their electricity consumption
come from renewable energy sources in order to push forward sustainable transition; they
also required their supply chain to use 100% renewable energy based on such policy,
such as Google, Apple, etc.

Since Taiwan proposed a Non-Nuclear Home energy policy, energy transition ambition
seems to have stalled. In order to achieve longer-term carbon reduction goals, we call on
the government to propose a longer-term energy goal as soon as possible, gradually
implement supplementary reform measures and strengthen social communication based
on this goal.

We see this report as a trigger to attract new ideas and to facilitate constructive
discussions and debates on the long-term development of renewable energy transition in
Taiwan. This will ultimately shape social consensus and move towards "​a fast and just
transition to 100% renewable energy for all​".
Forms and Data
Form 1 - ​Brief on Potential Renewable Energy Power Generation Formula

[ available lands for renewable energy x weather factor x electricity transition coefficient =
power generation potential ]

Form 2 -​ Calculation for​ ​Potential Solar Power Generation

[ available lands for solar power x weather factor x electricity transition coefficient = power
generation potential ]

Form 3 -
Rooftop Ground Mounted

availa Urban Planning Available Lands for Solar Photovoltaic before 2020
ble Division - announced by Single Window of Ministry of Economic
land residential, Affairs
types industrial and
business area;

Non-Urban
Planning
Division - A, B,
C, D

exclu Ecological and environmental sensitive areas:​ Natural conservations,

ded wildlife protection areas, major wildlife habitats, national natural parks, and
land natural reserves.
types Urban Planning Division: ​Administrative Areas, Cultural Districts, Public
Facilities Lands, or lands and areas for specific uses.
Non-Urban Planning Division: ​agriculture and animal husbandry, forestry,
aquaculture, salt fields, mineral sites, and ceramics fields.

Form 4​ - Inventory of Potential Land for Solar Power Development

Available Lands for Construction National Capacity (GW)

67,063.01 125.74

Approach 1 - Estimated Approach (billion Approach 2 - Historic Approach (billion

kWh) kWh)

116.99 146.71

Form 5​ - Estimated Power Generation Wind Power in Conservative and Positive

Scenario
 Conservative Scenario Positive Scenario

Swept Area of Potential 40.01 ​km​2 101.22 ​km​2

Off-shore Windfarm

Potential Capacity (GW) 17.99 GW 45.52 GW

Historic Power Generation 1.70

of Land Windfarm (billion
kWh)

Potential Annual Power 38.68 90.38

Generation

Form 6​ - Calculation of Wind Power Generation

[ size of wind farm x number of wind turbine per unit of area x unit swept area for under
commercial available technology = amounted swept area]

[ amounted swept area x Betz limit assumption (40%) = potential for annual power
generaiton]

Form 7​ - Potential Geothermal Power Generation in 4 Major Geothermal Area

Geothermal Area avaialble land size potential capacity potential power

(​km​2​) (GW) generation (billion
kWh)

Yilan 532 6.24 41.15

Datun Mountain 88 2.89 19.05

Hualien and Taitung 5403 25.75 169.95

Lushan, Nantou 954 0.17 1.12

Potential Power Generating (billion kWh) 231.26

Form 8​ - Potential for Solar, Wind and Geothermal Power Generation (billion kWh)

Solar Power 116.99 146.70

Wind Power 38.68 90.38

Geothermal Power 231.26

Total 386.93 468.35

Form 9​ - Current 2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland Policy Capacity Target and Power
Generation

Renewable Energy Capcity Corresponding Potential

Target under Current 2025 Power Generation Based
“2025 Non-Nuclear on the Capacity Factor
Homeland” Policy Declared by the Bureau of
Energy, Ministry of
Economic Affair

Solar 20GW 25 billion kWh

Off-shore Wind 5.5GW 20.6 billion kWh

Land Wind 1.2GW 2.76 billion kWh

Renewable Power 100: The Necessity and Possibility to Reach 100%
Renewable Electricity System in Taiwan

350 Taiwan, 2019 Nov. 10

350 Taiwan Research Team​ Chien-Huan Li, Pin-Han Huan, Yuan Sung

Technical Consultant​ Zheng-Hao Chung, Zheng-Xun Wu

Supporting Partners ​Homemakers United Foundation - Taichung, Taiwan Renewable

Energy Alliance (TRENA), Air Clean Taiwan, Citizen of the Earth Taiwan, International
Climate Development Institute, Mom Loves Taiwan, Green Citizens’ Action Alliance,
Greenpeace Taiwan, Taiwan Geothermal Association Secretary-general Shou-cheng
Wang, Taiwan Environmental Information Association Secretary-general Juei-Ping Chen,
Feng Chia University Professor Chyi-How Lay, Observer Ecological Consultant Co
General Manager Yu Bo Huang

Visual Design​ Yi-Xuan Gao