Climate Flexibility: Introducing Nature in National Accounting
Climate Flexibility: Introducing Nature in National Accounting
Climate Flexibility: Introducing Nature in National Accounting
RESEARCH
ASSOCIATION for
INTERDISCIPLINARY
INTERDISCIPLINARY DOI:10.5281/zenodo.8310077
August 3-4, 2023 STUDIES
Climate Flexibility:
Introducing Nature in National Accounting
Julia M. Puaschunder
Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, 535 W 116th St #109, New York, NY 10027,
Julia.Puaschunder@columbia.edu, www.juliampuaschunder.com, http://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jmp2265
ABSTRACT: The European and North American Green New Deals have become springfeathers of change
in the national and international accounting of natural resources. The European Sustainable Finance
Taxonomy accounts for the carbon impact of industries in order to quantify economic impacts on natural
resources to make industry impacts on environmental conditions more transparent and accountable. The
United States Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris administration has also launched efforts to put nature on the
nation’s balance sheet. The Biden-Harris White House multi-year strategy plans to connect environmental
conditions with economic outcomes by collecting data and using innovative methods to capture nature’s role
in the U.S. economy. On the global level, integrating natural resources into economic productivity prospects
has the potential to change power dynamics and international politics driven by economic opportunities.
Linking nature to the economy and productivity as well as the human standard of living is the driver for the
World Bank project on “Changing Wealth of Nations.” Integrating natural capital in global macroeconomic
and financial models is thereby meant to feature systematically forward-looking wealth estimates as a source
to inspire restoration and conservation policies. The ‘Mapping Climate Justice’ project housed at Columbia
University measures the impact of climate change on economic productivity around the world and has found
vast climate injustices. Future wealth of nations was introduced by the concept of climate flexibility defined
as the range of temperature variation of a country. Climate flexibility is the leeway countries have in coping
with a changing climate due to a broad range of climate zones prevalent in their territory. Climate flexibility
can be grounded on the relative latitude and altitude of countries around the globe. Climate flexibility directly
influences a country’s productivity in agriculture production opportunities, trade possibilities, industry
development favorable conditions as well as service sector offerings. Climate wealth of nations so far has also
been proposed to stem from climate zones, which vary around the world. Climate justice redistribution
strategies have been proposed in order to alleviate climate injustices, by which countries that benefit from a
relative climate advantage are meant to redistribute some of the expected economic gains to countries that lose
out the most and the fastest from global warming. The redistribution could be implemented via a taxation-
bonds redistribution strategy. Overall, the concerted efforts to marry the idea of natural resource description
are believed to stimulate environmental policy and protection, change sustainable development and
macroeconomic calculus. Policy and regulatory settings are meant to be aligned with wealth derived from
natural resources. Natural resource accounting is also likely to change the estimation of competitiveness
around the world. The integration of local community assets can thereby facilitate conservation holistically.
Scientifically, environmental and economics interactions are likely to inspire ground-breaking insights for
monetizing the value of natural assets and stimulate the future discourse on resilient finance.
KEYWORDS: Climate Change, Climate Flexibility, Climate Wealth of Nations, Comparative Advantage,
Diversification Advantage, Economics, Ethics, National Accounting, Natural Resources, Resilient Finance,
Sustainable Finance Taxonomy, Trade
Introduction
The European and United States Green New Deals account for the most drastic economic changes
in the post-pandemic world (Puaschunder 2020b; The United States Congress 2019). The Green
New Deal and the European Green Deal, in combination with the European Sustainable Finance
Taxonomy, are the most widescale efforts to marry the idea of economic growth in line with the
natural resources pool and with respect for environmental limitations (Puaschunder 2021). Both
programs target at creating an economic multiplier by a focus on the conservation and restoration
of natural resources, which are meant to be integrated into the national and international accounting
(Keynes 1936/2003).
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 70
In the European Union, the European Green Deal connects finance with sustainability.
The European Sustainable Finance Taxonomy quantifies the carbon emission impact of various
industries to make economic impacts on environmental conditions more transparent and
accountable. Both initiatives are large-scale endeavors to quantify natural resources in relation
to economic productivity outcomes with long-term impact. The overarching goal of the
European and US Green Deals is to improve the current and future management of economic
outputs, outcomes and impacts so that they work towards a more sustainable future world.
The Joseph Biden Kamala Harris administration has also launched efforts to put nature
on the national agenda and national accounting balance sheet (Reamer 2023). The Biden-Harris
White House multi-year strategy plans to connect environmental conditions with economic
outcomes in collecting data and using innovative methods to better capture nature’s role in the
U.S. economy. The results are expected to influence public and private sector endeavors. The
environment-economy connex is meant to inform policy for natural resource preservation but
also to generate business opportunities on the international level (Reamer 2023; The White
House 2023a, b). National accounting standards will thereby include resources like land, water,
minerals, animals and plants (Reamer 2023; The White House 2023a, b). Linking nature with
the economy in a more inclusive and comprehensive accounting will also inform international
relations and science diplomacy.
Linking nature to the economy and productivity as well as the human standard of living
is also the driver for the World Bank to advocate for a “Changing Wealth of Nations” (World
Bank 2023). The World Bank has been measuring wealth since the 1990s and holds a consistent
global database for 146 countries from 1995 to 2018 (Onder 2023). Comprehensive wealth is
based on produced capital (machinery, structures, urban land), non-renewable natural capital
(fossil fuels, minerals), renewable natural capital (cropland and pastureland, forest timber and
eco-services, protected areas, fisheries, mangroves), human capital (male/female,
employed/self-employed) and net foreign assets (assets-liabilities) (Onder 2023). In a revised
version of the Wealth of Nations index, the World Bank team now targets integrating natural
capital in global macroeconomic and financial models to feature systematically forward-
looking wealth estimates.
Puaschunder (2020a) measured the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prospect differences
under climate change worldwide and found exacerbating climate inequalities. Puaschunder
(2020b) introduced a climate change winners and losers index, representing relative economic
climate change windfall gain reaper and victim countries, based on the economic prospects
under climate change around the world and over time. The model assumes that there are relative
economic climate change reapers that have a relative economic windfall gain from a warming
globe while other relative economic climate change victims face immediate disadvantages due
to global warming. The model primarily focuses on shedding light on the inequality in
countries and regions of the world exacerbated by climate change determining economic
prospects. The index attributed relative economic gain and loss prospects based on the medium
temperature per country and the optimum temperature for economic productivity per GDP
agriculture, industry, and service sector, and the GDP sector composition per country to
determine how far countries are deviating from their optimum productivity levels on a time
scale based on an overall changing climate prospect (Puaschunder 2020a). It is to be noted that
the ‘relative economic climate change windfall gain reapers and victims’ are categories on a
spectrum, that the gain and loss perspective addressed only concerns GDP growth and that the
gains/losses distribution are windfall/victim categories that countries did not accomplish or
chose willingfully. Gains and losses are somewhat random distributions throughout the world.
It is sheer luck in the birth lottery, where one falls into.
Climate justice addresses inequalities inherent in global warming with a mandate to
alleviate imbalances and enact fairness regarding climate benefits and burden-sharing. To
alleviate inequalities in climate change impacts between countries, ethical imperatives of
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 71
Immanuel Kant’s categorical imperative (1783/1993) and John Rawls’ veil of ignorance (1971)
but also economic calculus as put forward in Kaldor-Hicks’ compensation criteria guide
redistribution schemes (Law & Smullen 2008).
For the implementation of redistribution to alleviate climate inequality around the world,
climate change-winning countries that also feature relative climate flexibility in terms of
temperature ranges on their territory and that contribute to human-made global warming in CO2
emissions could pay for the establishment and maintenance of climate bonds via carbon
taxation; while climate change losing territories with low CO2 emissions and a narrow range of
temperatures on their soil and thus low climate flexibility could be recipients of climate bonds
with relatively high interest rate premium and thus be relative beneficiaries in the common
climate taxation-and-bonds transfer scheme.
This paper pays tribute to the connection between economic productivity and natural
resources. First, the European Green Deal and the European model of a Sustainable Finance
Taxonomy are presented as a classification of the impact of economic production on natural
resources and environmental assets. Second, the contemporary efforts of the United States
Biden-Harris administration to account for natural resources in national accounting are
outlined. Third, the international strategy to measure the “Changing Wealth of Nations” around
the world at the World Bank in Washington, D.C. is discussed for integrating natural resources
in productivity measurements. Fourth, the climate change impact in terms of climate flexibility
as an economic advantage and trade asset that varies around the globe is depicted. Fifth, the
different strategies are discussed and an outlook for future research is given.
The European Green Deal and the European Sustainable Finance Taxonomy but also the dichotomy
of European Union efforts (foremost the Next Generation EU) are part of the concurrent European
national COVID-19 rescue and recovery packages. The Sustainable Finance Taxonomy accounts
for the carbon impact of industries on natural resources to make economic productivity’s effect on
environmental conditions more transparent and accountable. Organized by sector and technology,
the European Sustainable Finance Taxonomy provides references to classify climate change
mitigation and adaptation activities, including environmental objectives (European Union
Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance 2020).
The goal of the European Green Deal is to improve the current and future management
of outputs, outcomes and impact of economic behavior. In the European Green Deal large-
scale endeavor with a long-term impact, the effectiveness will be evaluated by the sustainability
assessment of the performance of projects, institutions and programs by governments,
international organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as well as social media
campaigns. As the continuous assessment of programs, controlled evaluations of large-scale
projects’ relevance, effectiveness, efficiency and impact will be needed on a grand scale and
with a future-oriented outlook.
The Joseph Biden Kamala Harris administration has launched efforts to put nature on the nation’s
balance sheet (Reamer 2023). The Biden-Harris White House multi-year strategy plans to connect
environmental conditions with economic outcomes in collecting data and using innovative methods
to better capture nature’s role in the U.S. economy. National accounting standards will thereby
include resources like land, water, minerals, animals and plants (Reamer 2023; The White House
2023a, b). The results are expected to influence public and private sector endeavors. The
environment-economy connex is meant to inform public policy makers for natural resource
preservation but also business opportunities on the international level (Reamer 2023; The White
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 72
House 2023a, b). Linking nature with the economy in a more inclusive and comprehensive
accounting will also guide international relations and science diplomacy.
The involved agencies are the “White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
(OSTP), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the U.S. Department of Commerce
working with more than 27 federal departments and agencies on the development of the final
National Strategy to Develop Statistics for Environmental-Economic Decisions” (Reamer
2023; The White House 2023a, b). The overall effort is believed to change the appreciation
and perception of natural resources as key to economic prosperity, financial risk accounting in
light of climate change, international trade opportunities and the overall societal quality of life
(Reamer 2023; The White House 2023a, b). On the global level, integrating natural resources
into economic productivity prospects has the potential to change power dynamics and
international politics driven by economic opportunities.
Linking nature to the economy and productivity as well as the human standard of living is also the
driver for the World Bank project named “Changing Wealth of Nations” (World Bank 2023). The
World Bank has been measuring wealth since the 1990s and holds a consistent global database for
146 countries from 1995 to 2018 (Onder 2023). Comprehensive wealth is based on produced capital
(machinery, structures, urban land), non-renewable natural capital (fossil fuels, minerals),
renewable natural capital (cropland and pastureland, forest timber and eco-services, protected areas,
fisheries, mangroves), human capital (male/female, employed/self-employed) and net foreign
assets (assets-liabilities) in a yearly reporting (Onder 2023).
The yearly reports are now improved by adding carbon storage, renewable energy and
aquaculture pilot systems (Onder 2023). Integrating natural capital in global macroeconomic
and financial models is thereby meant to feature systematically forward-looking wealth
estimates. Future research endeavors thereby include the impact of climate on diversification
(Onder 2023). The report additions address the growing demand to understand the interlinkage
of the economy and the environment as a source to inspire restoration and conservation policies
(Onder 2023).
Climate Flexibility
Climate flexibility as the range of temperatures a country enjoys was recently introduced to be a
future wealth of nations (Puaschunder 2020a). Climate flexibility – defined as the range of
temperature variation per country – determines the future climate wealth of nations based on
economic production and comparative trade advantages (Puaschunder 2020a). If a country has a
natural climate flexibility in terms of a range of different temperatures that vary within its territory,
then the country is assumed to have more economic degrees of freedom and future trade assets in a
changing climate (Puaschunder 2020a).
Puaschunder (2020a) measured the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prospect differences
under climate change worldwide and found exacerbating climate inequalities. Puaschunder
(2020b) introduced a climate change winners and losers index, representing relative economic
climate change windfall gain reaper and victim countries, based on the economic prospects
under climate change around the world and over time. The model assumes that there are relative
economic climate change reapers that have a windfall gain from a warming globe while other
relative economic climate change victims face immediate disadvantages due to global warming.
The wider the range of latitude and altitude within a nation-state, the more climate
flexibility and favorable economic degrees of freedom for multiple production peaks are
assumed. A broad spectrum of climate zones is portrayed as a future asset in light of climate
change-induced shrinking climate flexibility. Global warming will continue diminishing
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 73
territories’ economic production flexibility when climate variation sinks. The more climate
variation a nation-state possesses right now, the more degrees of freedom a country has in terms
of GDP production capabilities in a differing climate. These insights aid in answering what
financial patterns we can expect given predictions the earth will become hotter. Already now
human capital flows and financial market inflows are significant in areas that are economically
gaining from a warming globe.
The climate winners and losers model primarily focuses on shedding light on the
inequality in countries and regions of the world exacerbated by climate change determining
economic prospects. The index attributed relative economic gain and loss prospects based on
the medium temperature per country and the optimum temperature for economic productivity
per GDP agriculture, industry, and service sector, and the GDP sector composition per country
to determine how far countries are deviating from their optimum productivity levels on a time
scale (Puaschunder 2020a). It is to be noted that the ‘relative economic climate change windfall
gain reapers and victims’ are categories on a spectrum, that the gain and loss perspective
addressed only concerns GDP growth and that the gains/losses distribution are windfall/victim
categories that countries did not accomplish or chose willingfully. Gains and losses are
somewhat random distributions throughout the world. It is sheer luck in the birth lottery where
one falls into.
The economic analysis of the economic gains and losses of a warming earth around the
world but also an economic estimation of future trade prospects in light of global warming, help
quantify how to enact climate change burden-sharing fairness in legally-instigated
redistribution and compensation schemes. Those countries that benefit from rising GDP
productivity given climate change and those countries with relatively higher degrees of climate
flexibility thereby should redistribute some of the expected wealth increase to places that have
a declining GDP prospect under global warming and low climate flexibility.
An international climate change fund could be based on indices that integrated the relative
country’s initial position on the climate change gains and losses index spectrum and a country’s
climate flexibility understood as the future climate wealth of nations trading assets in
combination with CO2 emissions production and consumption levels as well as changes in CO2
emissions over time and the bank lending interest rate per country but also historic resilient
finance and trade positions (Puaschunder 2020a). An overall redistribution key was introduced
to determine per-country transfers based on the climate change winner or loser status and
climate flexibility as well as the contribution to the climate change problem measured per
country and over time by CO2 emissions of production and consumption as well as CO2
emission changes and the bank lending rate per country. In order for the redistribution scheme
to work, those countries with climate change losing prospects and low ranges of climate
flexibility as well as low CO2 emissions in production and consumption as well as decreasing
CO2 emissions and high bank lending rates could be granted climate bonds prospects with high
bond yield rates that are financed by countries that have climate change winning prospect and
high ranges of climate flexibility as well as high CO2 emissions in production and consumption
as well as increasing CO2 emissions trends and low bank lending rates via taxation.
A better propensity to enact a common climate justice solution on the international level
should predestine countries to face a higher responsibility to act on global warming and lead
the world solution for climate justice. Those countries that have historically-proven financial
crisis intervention expertise and resilience finance capabilities as well as are connected in
science diplomacy and economic terms should thereby take on a leadership role in raising the
funds for the common climate justice taxation and transfer bonds solution. These countries
would raise the funds necessary to be redistributed to countries that do not have a good starting
ground on financial crisis intervention and resilient finance expertise and are not well connected
in regard to science diplomacy and economic transfers.
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 74
An in-between country regime could enact fairness on the different starting grounds of
countries as relative climate change winners or losers coupled with incentivizing countries
and/or corporations to compete over better bond conditions. Incentives could thereby target
lowering CO2 emissions or moving production to places that are climate losers to help revitalize
economies that have a shrinking prospect under climate change.
The idea of differing climate bond regimes is also extendable to sector-specific bond yield
interest rate regimes. On a country level, high CO2 emitting industries should face climate
taxation to set market incentives for a transition to renewable energy. The revenues generated
from the taxation of carbon-intensive industries should be used to offset the losses of climate
change and subsidize climate bonds.
Within a country, the bonds could be offered by commissioning agents, such as local
investment banks, who could install industry-specific premium bond payments and maturity
bond yields based on the environmental sustainability of an industry, e.g., as measured by the
European Sustainable Finance Taxonomy or U.S. attempts to include nature into national
accounting. The more sustainable an industry performs; the higher bond yield should be
granted in sector-specific interest rate regimes within a country. This strategy should set
positive market incentives via subsidies. Funding industries for not polluting could change the
traditional race-to-the-bottom price-cutting behavior driving CO2 emitting energy supply to
have industries compete over subsidies for using clean energy. In this way, bond yield
differences between industries could set positive market incentives for transitioning to
renewable energy productivity solutions.
Discussion
The presented concerted efforts to integrate natural resources in economic productivity calculus are
believed to stimulate environmental policy and protection, change sustainable development and
macroeconomic calculus. Policy and regulatory settings are meant to be aligned with wealth
derived from natural resources. Natural resource accounting is also likely to change the estimation
of competitiveness around the world. The integration of local community assets can facilitate
conservation holistically. Scientifically, environmental and economics interactions are likely to
inspire ground-breaking insights for monetizing the value of natural assets and stimulate the future
discourse on resilient finance.
Future efforts to integrate natural capital into national accounting should be fortified.
Foremost the European Sustainable Finance Taxonomy but also the United States research on
how to integrate natural resources into national accounting standards can guide the preservation
and conservation of natural wealth. Climate justice redistribution strategies could become
pegged to sustainable finance and the natural resource-based wealth of nations.
The European classification of industries’ contribution to climate change in the European
Sustainable Finance Taxonomy could become the basis for setting positive market incentives
to change market dynamics via differing bond regimes. Within a country, the bonds could be
offered by commissioning agents, such as local investment banks, who could install industry-
specific premium bond payments and maturity bond yields based on the environmental
sustainability of an industry, e.g., as measured by the European Sustainable Finance Taxonomy
or U.S. attempts to include nature into national accounting. The more sustainable an industry
performs; the higher bond yield should be granted in sector-specific interest rate regimes within
a country. This strategy should set positive market incentives via subsidies. Funding industries
for not polluting could change the traditional race-to-the-bottom price-cutting behavior driving
CO2 emitting energy supply to have industries compete over subsidies for using clean energy.
In this way, bond yield differences between industries could set positive market incentives for
transitioning to renewable energy productivity solutions.
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 75
Future measurements should refine the concept of climate flexibility defined as the range
of temperature variation of a country (Puaschunder 2020a). In a changing climate, temperature
range flexibility is portrayed as a future asset for international trade of commodities but also
for production flexibility leading to comparative advantages of countries. A broad spectrum of
climate zones has never been defined as an asset and comparative edge in free trade but climate
change will require territories to be more flexible in terms of changing economic production.
The more climate variation a nation-state possesses, the more degrees of freedom a country has
in terms of GDP production capabilities in a differing climate. These preliminary insights aid
in answering what financial patterns can we expect given predictions the earth will become
hotter. Already now, the degree of climate flexibility is found to be related to human migration
inflow and is predicted to determine the future climate wealth of nations in a climate-changing
world (Puaschunder 2020a). The actual natural external impact but also human-built influences
on the natural wealth of nations should lead to the unprecedented outlook on the future climate
wealth of nations in the age of the Anthropocene. How future climate change-induced market
changes are pegged to scarcity of climate flexibility and a prospect of commodity price spikes
in the interrelation between environmental, political and demand patterns should become
unraveled.
Global governance institutions play a crucial role in measuring the impact of economic
productivity on natural resources. Governance experts are also at the forefront of implementing
the proposed relative economic climate change gains redistribution scheme with plurilateral
summit capabilities. Comprised of all nations of the world, global governance entities can
instigate the idea of a ‘Global Green New Deal,’ which could globalize ideas of the Green New
Deal and the European Green Deal to enact a binding taxation-and-bonds solution for
alleviating the disparate impact of climate change. Empirically-driven redistribution schemes
could thereby build the support of all the international actors involved and imbue a notion of
economically-driven rationality in fairness that could win countries to act and comply. Global
governance institutions, such as the World Bank, IMF, or the United Nations, could act as norm
entrepreneurs and action catalysts of a Global Green New Deal that redistributes the unequally-
distributed relative economic gains of a warming earth to places that face economically-
declining economic prospects. The important role that global governance institutions can play
in supporting and implementing a Global Green New Deal targets at redistribution to overcome
global inequalities in regard to climate change. Global governance institutions can shape the
conduct and array of international actors to contribute to a commonly-agreed global scheme.
Economically-driven indices in a concerted governance and science diplomacy accord could
aid in taking the political nature out of redistribution politics and historically-laden international
relations. Drawing attention to the need for future research on this nexus will serve as a first
step in finding economically-driven redistribution schemes to conserve and protect the earth
inbetween generations.
All the presented programs are large-scale endeavors with a long-term impact to make
the world a more sustainable place and economies more resilient. The success of these long-
term large-scale endeavors will depend on future conditions and long-term implementation
compliance. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) can currently only give a short-term
assessment of the performance of projects, institutions and programs by governments,
international organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as well as social media
campaigns. In the continuous assessment of programs younger generations and the most
diverse stakeholders should be included as all these projects require a long-term and large-scale
transformation. In the end, to the young and the diverse groups within society and around the
world but also over time, the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency and impact of all these
endeavors will matter the most if implemented sustainably and meaningfully for the global
community of this generation and the following.
RAIS Conference Proceedings, August 3-4, 2023 76
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