Module 3 - Transportation Planning

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MODULE 3

(CE 515 – Transportation


Engineering)

TRANSPORTATION OVERVIEW
PLANNING
The purpose of this module is to describe the basic
characteristic of transportation planning and to present the
basic elements of the transportation planning process. This will
discuss also the basic concepts in Transportation Systems
Modeling.
.

Engr. Leo M. Sauro, D.M. LEARNING OUTCOMES


(+63)-9451136579 At the end of this module, you should be able to:
leomsauro@gmail.com
1. Define concepts of transportation planning.
2. Know the basic elements of transportation planning
process.
3. Understand the basic concepts of transportation
systems modeling.

WHAT IS TRANSPORTATION PLANNING?

Transportation planning can play an important role in an


agency’s or region’s strategy to improve the performance of the
transportation system. In its simplest form, transportation
planning consist of those activities that collect information on
the performance of the existing transportation system; forecast
future performance levels given expected changes to key
factors such as land use, price of fuel, and growth in
employment; and identify possible solutions to expected
problems in system performance.
Transportation planning is defined as planning required
in the operation, provision and management of facilities and
services for the modes of transport to achieve safer, faster,
comfortable, convenient, economical and environment-friendly
movement of people and goods. It is a prediction of usage
demand in future travel and to ensure all the necessary
facilities and services to cater to that demand.
Transport planning is highly essential in shaping cities,
enabling economic activities, promoting community interaction,
and enhancing quality of life. It is also essential for sustainable
development and ensuring safe accessibility at various levels
for all individuals.

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BASIC ELEMENTS OF TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
First and foremost, transportation planning is a process.
This means that it consist of well-defined tasks that must be
accomplished before the final set of information is presented to
those who must decide which course of action is best for an
agency, region or community.

Source: Highway Engineering by P. H. Wright and K. K. Dixon

Figure 3-1 presents a planning framework that shows


basic tasks as well as their interrelationship. As shown,
transportation planning is primarily a process of producing
information that can be used by decision makers to better
understand the consequences of different courses of action.
The tasks that are part of identifying and assessing these
consequences include the following.

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Collect and Maintain Transportation System Data

Knowing what your transportation network consist of and the


condition and performance of these facilities is an important
starting point for transportation planning. This consist of an
extensive inventory of the road system that includes such basic
information as the number of lanes, type of pavement, the last
time the pavement was replaced, the capacity of the road,
accident records, and so on. Most transit agencies have an
inventory of the different assets that constitute a transit system
(e.g. buses, stations, shelters, rail cars, etc.)

Collect and Maintain Socioeconomic and Land Use Data

A fundamental concept in transportation planning that


significantly influences how expected demand for travel is
estimated is called derived demand. Derived demand means
that a trip is taken to accomplish some activity at the
destination and that the trip itself is simply a means of reaching
this activity. Transportation planning must therefore relate
tripmaking to the types of activities that occur in a region and
also to the characteristics of the tripmaker that will influence
tha way these trips are made. This is done by combining
similar uses of land into a land use category that can then be
used in transportation planning to estimate how many trips are
attracted to each type of land use (e.g. the number of trips to
school, shopping centers, residential units, office complexes,
etc.)
Types of data on tripmaker characteristics include level
of income, number of member in the household, number of
autos in the household, number of children, age of head of
household, and highest level of education achieved. Each of
these socioeconomic characteristics has been shown to affect
how many and how trips are made.

Define Goals and Objectives

Goals are generalized statements that indicate the desired


achievement of a transportation plan. Examples of goals
statements might be , “The transportation system should meet
the mobility needs of the population” or “The transportation
system should provide enhanced economic development
opportunities.”
Objectives are more specific statements that indicate the
means by which these goals will be achieved. For example, the
goal of meeting the mobility needs of the population could have
the following objectives associated with it: “Provide transit
service to major markets in the region,” “Reduce congestion on
major highways,” and “Promote bicycle and pedestrian
transportation.”

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Identify System Deficiencies or Opportunities

Transportation planning identifies and prioritizes those


elements of the transportation system where problem exist
today or where problems will exist in the future given growth in
travel. In addition, transportation planning can also identify
areas where significant problems do not exist today, but where
changes to the system can provide opportunities for enhanced
efficiency and operation.

Develop and Analyze Alternatives

Once the planning process has identified areas where


improvements are needed, transportation planners define
different strategies that could solve the problems. Historically,
these strategies have focused on improvements to highways,
such as adding new lanes, improving traffic control through
signals or signing, or improving traffic flow through
channelization. Today, however, planners are looking at a wide
variety of strategies. These strategies can include reducing the
demand for transportation through flexible working hours,
increasing average vehicle occupancy through such things as
carpools or transit use, or raising the price of travel through the
use of tolls. More recently, the application of advanced
transportation technologies to the operation of a road system,
known as intelligent transportation systems (ITS), has become
an important strategy in many cities.

Evaluate Alternatives

Evaluation brings together all the information gathered on


individual alternatives and provides a framework to compare
the relative worth of the alternatives. This evaluation process
most often relies on the different measures of effectiveness
that relate to the goals and objectives defined at the beginning
of the planning process. One of the most often used
approaches is the benefit/cost ratio, which compares the
alternatives on the basis of discounted benefits and costs.

Implement Plan

The major product of the transportation planning process is the


transportation plan. In other agencies, another major product of
transportation planning is the programming document that lists
all the transportation projects that will be implemented over the
next few years. Programming the projects is a very important
step because the number of projects recommended by various
planning efforts often exceeds the amount of funding that is
available. The programming process must rely then on a
process of prioritizing projects.
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Monitor System Performance

Transportation planning is a process that continually examines


the performance and condition of the transportation system to
identify where improvements can be made. Therefore, some
means of monitoring system performance is necessary to
systematically identify areas where these improvements might
occur.

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MODELING

Transportation planning by its very definition is concerned with


future travel demands and putting in place the facilities and
services that will accommodate these demands. The challenge
to transportation planners is to make reliable forecasts of traffic
demand that reflect the effects of changes in population, social,
and economic conditions as well as changes in the
transportation network.
The recognized components of future demand include:

1. Existing traffic. Traffic currently using an existing


highway that is to be improved.
2. Normal traffic growth. Traffic that can be explained by
anticipated growth in state or regional population or by
areawide changes in land use.
3. Diverted traffic. Traffic that switches to a new facility
from nearby roadways.
4. Converted traffic. Traffic changes resulting from change
of mode.
5. Change of destination traffic. Traffic that has changed
to different destination where such change is attributable
to the attractiveness of the improved transportation and
not to changes in land use.
6. Development traffic. Traffic due to improvements on
adjacent land in addition to the development that would
have taken place had the new or improved highway not
been constructed.
7. Induced traffic. Traffic that represents trips that would
not have been made, but now are because of improved
transportation.

Basic Concepts in Transportation Systems Modeling

Most transportation models are based on some fundamental


assumptions and approaches that heavily influence how these
models are used by transportation planners and engineers.
The most important are as follows:

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Tripmaking Is a Function of Land Use. The concept of
derived demand is a critical point of departure in model
development. Most models are developed on the assumption
that tripmaking is related to the types of land use at the origin
and destination ends of the trip.

Trips Are Made for Different Purposes. Trips are made to


accomplish different objectives. In the morning, a large
percentage of travel in urban areas consists of individuals
going to work or going to school. In midday, the types of trips
might include shopping, personal business and recreational.
Because modeling is based on the types of activities and land
uses found at both ends of the trip, the modeling process often
treats this trips separately and then aggregates them at the
end for an estimate of the total number of trips on the network.

Trips Are Made at Different Times of the Day. The basis for
most modeling is the determination of the origin and
destination patterns in the study area. These patterns will
clearly differ by time of day in that different types of trips are
being made at different times of the day. Thus modeling is
often done with an origin-destination trip table (a matrix that
indicates the trip patterns) that represents defined time periods.

Travelers Often Have Different Options Available to Them.


Not only it is important to know the origin-destination trip
patterns in a study area, but travelers often have the option of
making a trip with different transportation modes and/or on
different routes in the network. For example, in an urban area,
a trip from one zone to another might have available the
following options: single-occupant automobile, carpool, bus
transit, or rail transit. If the single-occupant or carpool modal
option is chosen, the traveler(s) could choose different routes
on the highway network to reach their destination.

Trips (and thus the Characteristics of Travel) Are Made to


Minimize the Level of Inconvenience Associated with
Reaching a Destination. The choice of mode is often based
on the relative travel times associated with reaching a
destination by each mode or by how expensive the use of each
mode is to the user. The choice of paths through a network, for
example, is often assumed to be based on the minimum
amount of time it takes to go from origin to destination.

Transportation Networks and Traffic Analysis Zones re the


Basis of Systems Modeling. Given the numerous origins and
destinations in a study area, and given the different paths that
can be used to reach destinations, transportation models must
be able to represent the land use and transportation network
characteristics that are fundamental to trip estimation. As
noted, traffic analysis zones are used to represent the land use
and demographic data that influence tripmaking.

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Figure 3-2. Representation of a Transportation Network
Source: Highway Engineering by P. H. Wright and K. K. Dixon

The transportation system is often pictured as a network of


nodes and links that conceptually represent intersections and
roadways. Figure 3-2 shows a representation of a
transportation network.

Transportation modeling consist primarily of four steps ( and is


thus often referred to as the “four-step” modeling process).
These will be denoted with the following variables:

Trip Generation (Ti ): The number of trips produced in


traffic analysis zone i.

Trip Distribution (Tij ): The number of trips produced in


zone i and attracted to zone j

Mode Split (Tijm ): The number of trips produced in


zone i and attracted to zone j
traveling by mode m

Trip Assignment (Tijmr ): The number of trips produced in


zone i and attracted to zone j
traveling by mode m over route r

Trip Generation

The trip generation step in transportation modeling relates the


number of trips being produced from a zone or site by time
period to the land use and demographic characteristics found
at that location. A necessary input step into trip generation is to
have some indication of what the land use and demographic
characteristics are likely to be. For future conditions, special
models are used to estimate population, number of dwelling
units, auto ownership, income, employment, retail sales, and
other factors that will likely characterize the future conditions
for this zone.

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Studies have shown that the rate of tripmaking is closely
related to three characteristics of land use:
1) Intensity of land use (e.g. dwelling units per acre,
employees per acre, etc.)
2) Character of land use (e.g. average family income, car
ownership, etc.), and
3) Location relative to major economic activities (e.g.
closeness to downtown)
Different methods thus relate tripmaking rates to these types of
variables.

There are many different methods that can be used to estimate


the trip producing activity for particular zones. The three most
common methods include trip rates from national or local
studies, cross classification analysis, and regression equations.

Trip Rates from National/Local Sources. Planners often


undertake special studies to determine the number of trips
associated with different types of land use. For example, traffic
counts can be taken at the driveways of stores or restaurants
to count the number of vehicles attracted to these locations.

Cross Classification Analysis. If good data are available


from a study area to provide information on the relationship
between socioeconomic variables and tripmaking, cross
classification analysis can be used to develop relevant trip
rates.

Figure 3-3. Cross classification analysis


Source: Highway Engineering by P. H. Wright and K. K. Dixon

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An illustration of cross classification analysis is shown in Figure
3-3. In this case data were available from the Census on the
number of persons per household and household income and
the corresponding number of trips made per household type.
By estimating the number of future households and applying
the calculated trip rates, the future number of trips produced in
this zone can be calculated.

Regression Analysis. Given the high correlations that


typically exist between trip rates and socioeconomic variables,
many models use least-squares regression equations to
estimate trip production per zone. A typical regression equation
might look like the following:

= 0.34( ) + 0.21( ) + 0.12( )

= 57.2 + 0.87( )

where:
Ti = total number of trips produced in zone i
Aj = total number of trips attracted to zone j
Pi = total population for zone i
DUi = total number dwelling units for zone i
Ai = total number of automobiles in zone i
Ej = total employment in zone j

Trip Distribution

The major product of the trip distribution step in transportation


modeling is the trip table, an origin-destination matrix that
shows the number of trips originating in the study zones and
where these trips are destined to. The major method of
producing such trip tables is the gravity model.
The gravity model is so named because of its similarity
to Newton’s law of gravity. The original version of the model
was of he form:

( )
= (3 − 1)
+ +⋯+
( ) ( ) ( )

where Tij = trips from zone i to zone j for a specified purpose


Pi = total trips produced at zone i for the specified purpose
Aj = a measure of attraction of the jth zone for trips of this
purpose
Dij = distances from zone i to zone j for m zones
n = some exponent that varies with trip purpose

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Consider the following numerical example. Given a
residential zone that produces a total of 110 shopping trips per
day, distribute these trips to shopping centers 1, 2, 3 in
accordance with the gravity model. Distances between zones
are shown on the sketch. The value of n in the gravity model is
2. Use the amount of commercial floor space within the
destination zone as the measure of attractiveness.

Floor Space
Shopping Center ( thousand ft2 )
1 184
2 215
3 86

184
(8)
1= 110 = 16
184 215 86
+ +
(8) (4) (5)

215
(4)
2= 110 = 75
184 215 86
+ +
(8) (4) (5)

86
(5)
3= 110 = 19
184 215 86
+ +
(8) (4) (5)
_______
Total Trips = 110

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Mode Split Models

Mode split models predict the number of travelers who will


choose one mode over others for making a particular trip. A
great deal of research has been undertaken to better specify
models that correctly reflect the individual’s decision-makin
process in making this choice. Empirical evidence indicates
that the following factors influence mode choice:

1. Type of trip ( e.g., trip purpose, time of day)


2. Characteristics of the tripmaker (e.g., income, age, auto
ownership)
3. Characteristics of the transportation system (e.g.,
relative travel times for the modes available to make the
trip)

The most recent advances in transportation modeling have


focused on what are called individual choice models, which
relate modal choice to the utility associated with each mode.
The utility or attractiveness of each mode can be defined with a
variety of variables relating to travel costs, travel time,
reliability, and so on. Different model formulations have been
used to predict mode choice based on different modal utilities,
but the most common formulation is called the logit model and
is of the following form.

= (3 − 2)

ℎ = ℎ
=
=

An example of this type of mode split model follows. Assume


that we know there are 1,000 trips being made between zones
i and j. There are three modes available to make this trip. The
utility of the individual modes is defined as

= 1.0 − 0.1( ) − 0.05( )

= −0.1( ) − 0.05( )

= −5.0 − 0.1( )

ℎ =
=

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Assume that we know that the travel time for auto is 5
minutes, for bus 15 minutes and for walking 20 minutes. The
corresponding cost are $0.60 for auto and $0.50 for bus.
Substituting these numbers into the utility equations results in
the following estimates of modal utilities:

= 0.47 = −1.525 = −2.5

Using equation 3-2, we find the following probabilities


associated with the use of each mode:
.
= = 0.842
. + . + .

.
= = 0.114
. + . + .

.
= = 0.043
. + . + .

Given the 1,000 trips between these two zones, one would
predict that 842 would use the automobile, 114 would use the
bus and 43 would walk.
In some cases, such as small urban areas, the mode
split step is not used in the modeling process because there
are few alternative modes. The auto is the only way of making
a trip. In larger urban areas, however, mode split is an
important step in the modeling process.

Trip Assignment

The final step in transportation modeling is to assign trips to


paths in the network. The most important concept in trip
assignment is that travelers will choose a path that minimizes
travel time from origin to destination. Trip assignment models,
therefore, are based on minimum time algorithms that identify
the minimum time paths through networks. Common to all
assignment approaches is the existence of link performance
functions that relate travel time to factors such as volume and
roadway capacity. Figure 3-4 graphically illustrates the concept
of a link performance function. In this figure the time associated
with travel on a link in the network is related in a nonlinear way
with the amount of traffic on that link. As shown, the closer this
volume approaches the capacity of the roadway, the greater
travel time is associated with traversing this link. In practical
terms this relationship means that as a roadway becomes
congested, it will take a longer time to travel the link distance,
and thus the model will assign fewer vehicles to that link.

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Figure 3-4. Graphical representation of link performance
Source: Highway Engineering by P. H. Wright and K. K. Dixon

The result of the assignment step is an estimate of the volumes


or riders that will be found on each link in the network. These
estimated volumes can then be used to determine where
deficiencies exist in the system (e.g., by comparing the
volumes to existing capacity). The resulting volumes can also
be compared to other assignments that are undertaken with
different input assumptions to determine the effects of different
policies.

STUDENT ACTIVITY:

Select a current transportation problem in your community with


which you are familiar or interested. Briefly describe the
situation and the problem involved that needs transportation
planning. Indicate the options available and the major impacts
of each option on the community.

Note: (Pls indicate on your answer sheets your Name, Subject, Module #,
Activity #, type of exam , etc.)

Use A4 size bond paper for your answer sheets. Submit your Student
Activity/Assessment (hardcopy and handwritten) to
* thru the UEP municipal link or university main link
* any mode that will be deemed safe for you and me, on or before Sept 27,
2021.

REFERENCES

Wright, Paul H., Dixon, Karen K. (2004). HIGHWAY


ENGINEERING. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.

Garber, Nicholas J., Hoel, Lester A. (2012). TRAFFIC AND


HIGHWAY ENGINEERING. CENGAGE Learning (Asia) Pte.
Ltd.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/tribaltrans/consult.htm
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