Conditional

Probabilty:
Crash course

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Example 1:

This situation is shown on the

Tree diagram on the next slide.

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 TREE DIAGRAMS
SAMPLING WITHOUT REPLACEMENT.

Y2

Y1

Y2

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 TREE DIAGRAMS
SAMPLING WITHOUT REPLACEMENT

Y2

Y1

Y2

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 TREE DIAGRAMS
● THE ABOVE EXAMPLE IS AN EXAMPLE OF
SAMPLING WITHOUT REPLACEMENT

○ SAMPLING WITHOUT REPLACEMENT ARE

DEPENDENT EVENTS ARE ALSO KNOWN AS
CONDITIONAL EVENTS.

Y2

Y1
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Y2
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
Reading off from the tree diagram

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Why do we add?
● In the last example we added hence
we are using the addition rule.

● P (C ∪ D) = P(C) + P(D) - P(C ∩ D)

● but the event C ∩ D is impossible.

Both beads cannot be black and
yellow at the same time.
● In other words, the event C ∩ D is
mutually exclusive.
Therefore, P (C ∪ D) = P(C) + P(D)
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 TREE DIAGRAMS
● Find the probability that BOTH beads are black.

○ Using English of probability we want the probability that

1st bead is black AND the 2nd bead is black.

○ AND is the intersection of sets on a Venn diagram.

○ Therefore, we write:
■ P (B1 ∩ B2)
● This is found using the multiplication rule which is the same
as multiplying along the appropriate branch of the tree
diagram (above).
● P (B1 ∩ B2) = P(B2 | B1) ⋅ P(B1) = 4/7 x 5/8 = 5/14

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 TREE DIAGRAMS
● Find the probability that both beads are the SAME colour

○ Using English of probability we want want the probability

that the both beads are black OR both beads are yellow.

○ OR is the union of sets on a Venn diagram.

○ For simplicity, if we write let C = B1 ∩ B2 (even both beads

are black).
○ Similarly, D = Y1 ∩ Y2 (even both beads are yellow).
○ Therefore, the probability that both beads are black or botth
are yellow is written as:
■ P (C ∪ D)

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 TREE DIAGRAMS
● P (C ∪ D) can easily found from the tree diagram:
○ Remembering:
■ “Or” means Add
● Add between branches
■ “And” means Multiply
● Multiply along the branches
● Therefore,
○ P(B1 ∩ B2) = P(B2 | B1) ⋅ P(B1) = 4/7 x 5/8 = 5/14
■ Multiplying along the branch (right to left)
○ Similarly, P(Y1 ∩ Y2) = P(Y2 | Y1) ⋅ P(Y1) = 2/7 x 3/8 = 3/28
■ Multiplying along the branch (right to left)

○ Thus, P (C ∪ D) = 5/14 + 3/28 = 13/28

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Twelve exercises with solutions
● If you can answer these exemplar
questions you should be able to
tackle any question on conditional
probability thrown at you.

● Questions range from Medium (Qs 1

to 8) to Hard (Qs 9 to 12).
○ Qs are NOT particuarly hard IF you
are able to draw Tree or Venn
diagrams.
○ Also you need to have a
methodological approach, which
Tree and Venn diagrams make
possible.
Ex 1:
1. A bag contains 6 red and 4
blue beads. A bead is picked
out and retained. Find the
probability that:
a. both beads are red.
b. the beads are of different
colours.
c. the second bead is red
given that the first one is
blue.

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SOLUTION Q1
SOLUTION Q1 part a
a) Using the tree diagram above:
Require probability, event B1 AND B2;

P(B1 ∩ B2) = 6/10 x 5/9 = ⅓

 SOLUTION Q1 part b
b) probability that beads are a different colours;
P(R1 ∩ B2) + P(B1 ∩ R2) using the tree diagram
then
P(R1 ∩ B2) + P(B1 ∩ R2)
= (6/10 x 4/9) + (4/10 x 6/9) = 2 x 24/90
=24/45 = 8/15
 SOLUTION Q1 part c
c) second bead is red given that the first one is blue.

Numerator found from tree diagram:

P(R2 ∩ B1) = 6/9 x 4/10 = 24/90 = 4/15

Therefore, P(R2|B1) = (24/90)/(4/10)

= (4/15) X (5/2) = 20/30= 2/3
Ex 2:
2. A teacher calculates that if a student regularly
completes their homework the probability that
they will pass the examination is 0.8 and that
if a student does not do the homework the
probability of passing is only 0.4. Given that
only 75% of the students do their homework
regularly, calculate the probability that a
randomly selected student:
a. does not do the homework regularly and
passes the examination.
b. passes the examination.

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SOLUTION Q2
SOLUTION Q2 part a
Reading from appropriate branch of the tree
diagram:
P(H’ ∩ E) = P(H’) x P(E|H’) = 0.25 x 0.4 = 0.1
⋅ SOLUTION Q2 part b
We are required to find P(E).
We must multiply along the appropriate branches
and add between the branches. There are 2
branches that end in P(E) which we must add
together.

P(E) = P(H)⋅P(E|H) + P(H’)⋅P(E|H’)

=(0.75 x 0.8) + (0.25 x 0.4) = 0.6 + 0.1 = 0.7
 Ex 3:
3. A certain statistician’s breakfast consists of either
some cereal or toast (but not both) to eat and one
drink from a choice fruit juice, tea or coffee. If he
has cereal to eat, the probability that he chooses
coffee is ⅗ and the probability he chooses tea is
3/10. If he has toast to eat, the probability he
chooses coffee is ⅖ and the probability he chooses
tea is ⅕. Given that he has cereal with probability
¾.
a. Find the probability that on any particular day
he has
i. fruit juice
ii. cereal and coffee.
b. Find his most breakfast combination.
Note: “given that he has cereal…” does not imply a
conditional probability in this question. Just that the
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probability that he eats cereal with ¾.
⋅ SOLUTION Q3
Convert the text into a tree diagram. Note the key
word “given” indicating conditional probability is not
being used.

C is the event that that statistician has cereal.

C’ is the event that the statistician does not have
cereal, he has toast.
F is the event he has fruit juice.
T is the event he has tea.
E is the event he has coffee.
⋅ SOLUTION Q3
⋅ SOLUTION Q3 part a
(i) Using the tree diagram to find P(F) which is found
on 2 branches:

P(F) = P(C)⋅P(F|C) + P(C’)⋅P(F|C’)

=(¾ x 1/10) + (¼ x ⅖) = 3/40 + 2/20 = 7/40 = 0.175

(ii) Using the tree diagram to find P(C ∩ E).

Multiplying along an appropriate row.

P(C ∩ E) = P(C)⋅P(E|C) = ¾ x ⅗ = 9/20 = 0.45

⋅ SOLUTION Q3 part b
Most common breakfast combination - largest
probability. Probabilities were calculated for each
branch. Hence, the most common combination is
Cereal and Coffee.
Ex 4:
4. Given that P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.4 and
P(A ∪ B) = 0.8, find the following:
a. P(A ∩ B)
b. P(A|B)
c. P(B|A)
d. P(A|B’)

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⋅ SOLUTION Q4 part a
Find P(A ∩ B)
⋅ SOLUTION Q4 part b
Find P(A|B)
⋅ SOLUTION Q4 part c
Find P(B|A)
⋅ SOLUTION Q4 part c
Find P(B|A)
⋅ SOLUTION Q4 part c
Find P(A|B’)
Ex 5:
5. Given that P(R|S) = 0.5, P(R|S’) = 0.4 and
P(S) = 0.6, find:
a. P(R)
b. P(S|R)
c. P(S’|R)
d. P(S’|R’)

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⋅ SOLUTION Q5 part a
Find P(R)
⋅ SOLUTION Q5 part b
Find P(S|R)
⋅ SOLUTION Q5 part c
Find P(S’|R)
⋅ SOLUTION Q5 part d
Find P(S’|R’)
Ex 6:
6. In grade 10 of a certain school 55% of the
students are boys. Of the boys 80% stay on
into the DP but only 75% of the girls do.
a. Find the probability that a randomly
selected student from grade 10 is a girl
who stays on into the DP.
b. Find the probability that a randomly
chosen grade 10 student will not stay on
into the DP.
c. Find the probability that a randomly
selected DP student is a girl.

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⋅ SOLUTION Q6
Convert the question to the language of
probability:
B is the event that a student is a boy, P(B) = 55%
B’ is the event that a student is not a boy, i.e. a girl,
P(B’) = 100% - 55% = 45%
D event that a student stays on into the DP.
P(D|B) the event that a student stays on given that
the student is a boy, P(D|B)=80%
P(D|B’) the event that a student stays on given that
the student is a girl, P(D|B’)=75%
⋅ SOLUTION Q6
Information is used to draw a tree diagram.
⋅ SOLUTION Q6 part a
Find the probability that a randomly selected student from
grade 10 is a girl who stays on into the DP.

We require the probability that,

P(D ∩ B’) = 0.45 x 0.75 = 0.3375 ≈ 0.338 (3sf)

(Simply multiply along the appropriate branch of the

tree diagram.)
⋅ SOLUTION Q6 part b
Find the probability that a randomly chosen grade 10
student will not stay on into the DP.

We require that the probability that, P(D’) this is

found on 2 branches:

P(D’) = P(B)⋅P(D’|B) + P(B’)⋅P(D’|B’)

= (0.55 x 0.2) + (0.45 x 0.25) = 0.2225 ≈ 0.223 (3sf)
⋅ SOLUTION Q6 part c
Find the probability that a randomly selected DP student is
a girl.

This is a conditional probability, although the key word

“given” is not present.

We require, P(B’|D)
⋅ SOLUTION Q6 part c
Ex 7:
7. A bunch of 30 keys are either gold or silver in
colour (but not both). There are 10 mortice
lock keys and 20 yale lock keys. Of these 5
yale lock keys and 2 mortice lock keys are
gold in colour. A key is selected at random.
a. Find the probability that the key is silver in
colour.
b. Find the probability that the key is silver
coloured and for a mortice lock.
I borrow this bunch of keys to open a yale lock.
c. What is the probability that the correct key
is silver?

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⋅ SOLUTION Q7
⋅ SOLUTION Q7 part a
Required to find P(G’)
Using the Tree diagrams; G’ is found on 2 branches:
⋅ SOLUTION Q7 part b
⋅ SOLUTION Q7 part c (A)
• This question is easy if you tabulate the outcomes.
– You may try other things first and they don’t work,
this is normal when you apply different techniques
to solve problems. It is not always obvious which
one works.
⋅ SOLUTION Q7 part c (B)
.
Ex 8:
8. Given that P(A) = ¼, P(B) = ⅓, and P(A ∪ B)
= 5/12,
a. Find P(A|B) and P(A|B’)
b. P(A|B)⋅P(B) + P(A|B’)⋅P(B’)
Comment on your result.

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⋅ SOLUTION Q8
The question is easily solved once a Venn diagram (or
Tree diagram) has been constructed.
⋅ SOLUTION Q8 part a
Find P(A|B) and P(A|B’)

Using the Venn diagram (previous slide):

⋅ SOLUTION Q8 part b
P(A|B)⋅P(B) + P(A|B’)⋅P(B’)

Comments:
Ex 9:
9. A teacher walks, cycles or drives to school
with probabilities 0.1, 0.3 and 0.6
respectively. If she walks to school she has a
probability of 0.35 of being late. The
corresponding probabilities of being late if
she cycles or drives to school are 0.1 and
0.55 respectively.
a. Find the probability that she is late on any
particular day.
b. Given that she is late one day, find the
probability that she walked.
c. Given that she is not late one day, find the
probability that she walked.
Give your answers to 3 decimal places.
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⋅ SOLUTION Q9
Sequential events - so construct a Tree diagram. First
defining the events.

Let W be the event the teacher walks, P(W) = 0.1

Let C be the event the teacher cycles, P(C) = 0.3
Let D be the event the teacher drives, P(D) = 0.6
Let L be the event the teacher is late.
Let L’ be the even the teacher is not late.
⋅ SOLUTION Q9
Tree diagram:

0.55

0.6 x 0.55 =
0.33
⋅ SOLUTION Q9 part a
Find the probability that she is late on any particular day.

Using the Tree diagram to find P(L) which is found on 3

branches which we must add together (multiplying along
each of these separate branches first.) Remember Add
between branches.

0.55
SOLUTION Q9 part b
Given that she is late one day, find the probability that she
walked.

We require, P(W|L)
SOLUTION Q9 part b
SOLUTION Q9 part c
Given that she is not late one day, find the probability that
she walked.

We require, P(W|L’)
SOLUTION Q9 part c
 Ex 10:
10. State in words the meaning of the symbol
P(B|A). where A and B are two events.
A shop stocks tinned cat food of two makes A
and B, and two sizes, large and small. Of the
stock, 70% is of brand A, 30% is of brand B.
Of the tins of brand A, 30% are small size
whilst of the tins of brand B, 40% are of the
small size.
Using a tree diagram, or otherwise, find the
probability that:
a. a tin chosen at random from the stock will
be of small size
b. a small tin chosen at random from the
stock will be of brand A.
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 SOLUTION Q10

Meaning of the symbol P(B|A):

P(B|A) means, “event B given event A.”

Let A be the event of choosing brand A, P(A) = 0.7

Let A’ be the event of choosing brand B (not A), P(A’) = 0.3

Let S be the event of choosing a small tin.

Let S’ be the event of choosing a large tin (not small).
SOLUTION Q10
 SOLUTION Q10 part a

A tin chosen at random from the stock will be of small size

Required to find P(S) which can be found using the Tree

diagram. P(S) is found on 2 branches.
 SOLUTION Q10 part b

A small tin chosen at random from the stock will be of brand

A.

Required to find P(A|S)

 Ex 11:
11. A boy always either walks to school or goes by bus.
If one day he goes to school by bus, then the
probability that he goes by bus the next day is 7/10.
If one day he walks to school, then the probability
that the he goes by bus the next day is ⅖.
a. Given that the boy walks to school on a
particular Tuesday, draw a tree diagram and
hence find the probability that he will go to by
bus on Thursday of that week.
b. Given that the boy walks to school on both
Tuesday and Thursday of that week, find the
probability that he will also walk to school on
Wednesday.
(You may assume that boy will not be absent
from school on Wednesday or Thursday of that
week.)
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 SOLUTION Q11
Tree diagram:
SOLUTION Q11 part a
 Ex 12:
12. For married couples the probability that the
husband has passed his driving test is 7/10
and the probability that the wife has passed
her driving test is ½. The probability that the
husband has passed, given that the wife has
passed, is 14/15. Find the probability that, for
a randomly chosen married couple the driving
test will have been passed by:
a. both of them.
b. only one of them
c. neither of them.
If two married couples are chosen at random,
find the probability that only one of husbands
and only one of the wives have passed the
driving test. 70
Ex 12:Tree diagaram
Tree diagram

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Ex 12: Venn diagram
Or alternatively Venn diagram

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Ex 12: part a

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Ex 12: part b

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Ex 12: part c

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Ex 12: Last part (2 married couples) (A)

● We need to combine the probabilities.

● See next slide.

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Ex 12: Last part (2 married couples) (B)

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