ITC Financial Model
ITC Financial Model
ITC Financial Model
FINANCIAL
MODELING
REPORT
(A Comprehensive DCF and Comparable Comps Valuation)
ITC Limited
Table
Of Contents
01 Historical Statement
03 Ratio Analysis
04 Forecasting
05 Beta Drifting
06 WACC
07 DCF Valuation
Comparable Comps
08 Valuation
10 Dupont Analysis
Historical Financial Statement
Historical Financial Statement - ITC LTD
Years Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Income Statement
Sales ₹38,817.2 ₹39,192.1 ₹42,767.6 ₹43,448.9 ₹48,339.6 ₹49,387.7 ₹49,257.5 ₹60,644.5 ₹70,919.0 ₹70,881.0
Sales Growth - 0.97% 9.12% 1.59% 11.26% 2.17% -0.26% 23.12% 16.94% -0.05%
COGS ₹19,688.4 ₹19,162.9 ₹21,949.1 ₹21,967.5 ₹24,216.0 ₹24,330.4 ₹26,881.5 ₹34,053.1 ₹38,302.1 ₹33,381.6
COGS % Sales 50.72% 48.89% 51.32% 50.56% 50.10% 49.26% 54.57% 56.15% 54.01% 47.10%
Gross Profit ₹19,128.8 ₹20,029.2 ₹20,818.5 ₹21,481.4 ₹24,123.6 ₹25,057.3 ₹22,375.9 ₹26,591.5 ₹32,616.9 ₹37,499.4
Gross Margins 49.28% 51.11% 48.68% 49.44% 49.90% 50.74% 45.43% 43.85% 45.99% 52.90%
Selling & General Expenses ₹4,877.2 ₹5,497.7 ₹5,349.0 ₹4,960.9 ₹5,586.2 ₹5,713.8 ₹5,311.2 ₹5,968.3 ₹6,912.6 ₹11,245.1
S&G Exp % Sales 12.56% 14.03% 12.51% 11.42% 11.56% 11.57% 10.78% 9.84% 9.75% 15.86%
EBITDA ₹14,251.6 ₹14,531.5 ₹15,469.5 ₹16,520.6 ₹18,537.4 ₹19,343.5 ₹17,064.8 ₹20,623.2 ₹25,704.3 ₹26,254.4
EBITDA Margins 36.71% 37.08% 36.17% 38.02% 38.35% 39.17% 34.64% 34.01% 36.24% 37.04%
Interest ₹91.0 ₹78.1 ₹49.0 ₹115.0 ₹71.4 ₹81.4 ₹58.0 ₹60.0 ₹77.8 ₹46.0
Interest % Sales 0.23% 0.20% 0.11% 0.26% 0.15% 0.16% 0.12% 0.10% 0.11% 0.06%
Depreciation ₹1,028.0 ₹1,077.4 ₹1,152.8 ₹1,236.3 ₹1,396.6 ₹1,644.9 ₹1,645.6 ₹1,732.4 ₹1,809.0 ₹1,816.4
Depreciation%Sales 2.65% 2.75% 2.70% 2.85% 2.89% 3.33% 3.34% 2.86% 2.55% 2.56%
Earning Before Tax ₹13,132.7 ₹13,376.0 ₹14,267.7 ₹15,169.3 ₹17,069.4 ₹17,617.3 ₹15,361.2 ₹18,830.8 ₹23,817.5 ₹24,392.0
EBT % Sales 33.83% 34.13% 33.36% 34.91% 35.31% 35.67% 31.19% 31.05% 33.58% 34.41%
Tax ₹4,596.4 ₹5,358.2 ₹5,549.1 ₹5,916.4 ₹6,313.9 ₹4,441.8 ₹4,555.3 ₹5,237.3 ₹6,438.4 ₹6,388.5
Effective Tax Rate 35.00% 40.06% 38.89% 39.00% 36.99% 25.21% 29.65% 27.81% 27.03% 26.19%
Net Profit ₹8,536.3 ₹8,017.8 ₹8,718.6 ₹9,252.9 ₹10,755.5 ₹13,175.5 ₹10,805.9 ₹13,593.4 ₹17,379.1 ₹18,003.5
Net Margins 21.99% 20.46% 20.39% 21.30% 22.25% 26.68% 21.94% 22.41% 24.51% 25.40%
No of Equity Shares 1202.33 1207.08 1214.74 1220.43 1225.86 1229.22 1230.88 1232.33 1242.8 1248.47
Earnings per Shares ₹7.1 ₹6.6 ₹7.2 ₹7.6 ₹8.8 ₹10.7 ₹8.8 ₹11.0 ₹14.0 ₹14.4
EPS Growth % -6.44% 8.06% 5.63% 15.72% 22.17% -18.10% 25.65% 26.77% 3.12%
Dividend per Shares ₹4.2 ₹5.7 ₹4.8 ₹5.1 ₹5.8 ₹10.1 ₹10.8 ₹11.5 ₹15.5 ₹13.7
Dividend Payout Ratio 58.69% 85.31% 66.18% 67.93% 65.54% 94.70% 122.45% 104.25% 110.84% 95.35%
Retained Earnings 41.31% 14.69% 33.82% 32.07% 34.46% 5.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.65%
Balance Sheet
Equity Share Capital ₹801.6 ₹804.7 ₹1,214.7 ₹1,220.4 ₹1,225.9 ₹1,229.2 ₹1,230.9 ₹1,232.3 ₹1,242.8 ₹1,248.5
Reserves ₹30,933.9 ₹41,874.8 ₹45,198.2 ₹51,289.7 ₹57,915.0 ₹64,044.0 ₹59,116.5 ₹61,223.2 ₹67,912.5 ₹73,258.5
Borrowings ₹268.8 ₹83.8 ₹45.7 ₹35.9 ₹13.4 ₹277.5 ₹270.8 ₹249.4 ₹306.0 ₹303.4
Other Liabilities ₹13,947.9 ₹8,888.0 ₹9,439.7 ₹11,694.9 ₹12,584.7 ₹11,760.0 ₹13,142.6 ₹14,491.0 ₹16,369.7 ₹17,015.7
Total Liabilities ₹45,952.2 ₹51,651.3 ₹55,898.3 ₹64,240.9 ₹71,739.0 ₹77,310.8 ₹73,760.8 ₹77,196.0 ₹85,831.0 ₹91,826.2
Fixed Assets Net Block ₹15,303.3 ₹15,106.6 ₹15,893.5 ₹16,524.0 ₹19,374.2 ₹21,713.3 ₹23,298.5 ₹24,231.6 ₹25,851.3 ₹27,829.9
Capital Work in Progress ₹2,700.2 ₹2,559.7 ₹3,729.9 ₹5,508.3 ₹4,136.4 ₹3,256.5 ₹4,011.3 ₹3,225.5 ₹3,003.3 ₹2,851.1
Investments ₹6,942.8 ₹11,747.6 ₹17,581.4 ₹22,052.9 ₹25,043.5 ₹28,663.4 ₹24,870.9 ₹24,841.0 ₹29,415.0 ₹31,114.0
Other Assets ₹2,540.8 ₹5,194.8 ₹5,135.8 ₹7,078.8 ₹7,138.1 ₹4,958.5 ₹4,022.2 ₹6,917.4 ₹7,953.9 ₹4,634.8
Total Non Current Assets ₹27,487.1 ₹34,608.8 ₹42,340.5 ₹51,163.9 ₹55,692.2 ₹58,591.6 ₹56,202.9 ₹59,215.6 ₹66,223.4 ₹66,429.8
Receivables ₹1,982.1 ₹1,917.2 ₹2,474.3 ₹2,682.3 ₹4,035.3 ₹2,562.5 ₹2,501.7 ₹2,461.9 ₹2,956.2 ₹4,025.8
Inventory ₹8,586.9 ₹9,062.1 ₹8,116.1 ₹7,495.1 ₹7,859.6 ₹8,879.3 ₹10,397.2 ₹10,864.2 ₹11,771.2 ₹14,152.9
Cash & Bank ₹7,896.2 ₹6,063.3 ₹2,967.4 ₹2,899.6 ₹4,152.0 ₹7,277.3 ₹4,659.0 ₹4,654.4 ₹4,880.2 ₹7,217.7
Total Current Assets ₹18,465.2 ₹17,042.6 ₹13,557.8 ₹13,077.0 ₹16,046.9 ₹18,719.2 ₹17,557.9 ₹17,980.5 ₹19,607.5 ₹25,396.4
Total Assets ₹45,952.2 ₹51,651.3 ₹55,898.3 ₹64,240.9 ₹71,739.0 ₹77,310.8 ₹73,760.8 ₹77,196.0 ₹85,831.0 ₹91,826.2
Check TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Cash Flow Statement
Particulars Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Profit from operations 11,218 13,172 14,261 15,154 16,075 17,433 18,862 19,416 17,326 20,857 25,895 26,635
Receivables -446 -1,546 558 -207 -870 -964 -755 1,411 -66 -732 -884 -934
Inventory -985 -755 -505 -693 593 602 -359 -508 -1,460 -466 -941 -2,545
Payables 0 456 -23 622 321 2,098 639 -607 1,112 1,099 1,058 141
Other WC items 331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Working capital changes -1,101 -1,844 31 -277 44 1,736 -476 296 -413 -100 -767 -3,337
Direct taxes -3,015 -3,984 -4,449 -5,078 -5,492 -6,000 -5,803 -5,023 -4,387 -4,982 -6,250 -6,120
Cash from Operating Activity - 7,102 7,344 9,843 9,799 10,627 13,169 12,583 14,690 12,527 15,776 18,878 17,179
Fixed assets purchased -2,644 -2,887 -3,300 -2,348 -3,122 -2,878 -3,169 -2,441 -1,837 -2,142 -2,743 -3,563
Fixed assets sold 10 38 9 8 50 80 28 27 3 133 49 107
Investments purchased -75,713 -94,242 -98,742 -1,54,081 -85,683 -98,330 -94,187 -79,835 -57,553 -69,776 -80,932 -75,107
Investments sold 75,152 93,293 99,658 1,50,651 81,034 95,017 92,454 75,835 62,797 70,992 77,230 77,830
Interest received 265 374 559 741 756 736 1,184 1,513 1,275 1,035 1,324 1,138
Dividends received 249 192 268 64 4 13 13 17 7 16 19 36
Invest in subsidiaries 0 0 0 -8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Investment in group cos 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -65
Redemp n Canc of Shares 0 0 0 0 129 18 18 0 0 0 56 0
Other investing items -1,200 -21 -3,728 1,052 3,579 -1,769 -1,887 -1,290 1,051 -2,494 -733 1,187
Cash from Investing Activity - -3,881 -3,254 -5,275 -3,921 -3,251 -7,114 -5,546 -6,174 5,740 -2,238 -5,732 1,563
Proceeds from shares 922 691 979 532 1,067 913 969 625 291 292 2,477 1,443
Proceeds from borrowings -2 156 7 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 8
Repayment of borrowings -12 -15 -20 -13 -13 -8 -18 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2
Interest paid fin -71 -48 -16 -28 -25 -49 -98 -44 -41 -40 -41 -46
Dividends paid -3,592 -4,239 -4,876 -5,133 -6,994 -5,952 -6,519 -7,302 -18,881 -13,788 -15,418 -19,899
Financial liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -49 -55 -59 -59 -134
Other financing items -556 -667 -734 -971 -1,335 -1,136 -1,203 -1,409 55 15 35 79
Cash from Financing Activity - -3,310 -4,122 -4,661 -5,613 -7,301 -6,221 -6,869 -8,181 -18,634 -13,580 -13,006 -18,551
Net Cash Flow -90 -32 -93 266 75 -166 169 334 -367 -43 139 191
Common Size Statement
Common Size Income Statement - ITC LTD
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Raw Material Cost 38.66% 35.12% 36.14% 34.13% 36.46% 36.54% 42.18% 44.64% 41.41% 39.27%
Change in Inventory 0.61% 0.50% -1.39% -2.37% 0.42% 1.42% 1.31% 1.13% 0.51% 0.83%
Power and Fuel 1.57% 1.46% 1.37% 1.50% 1.54% 1.58% 1.42% 1.47% 1.74% 0.00%
Other Mfr. Exp 3.95% 4.04% 3.94% 3.91% 3.87% 3.86% 3.22% 3.11% 3.28% 0.00%
Employee Cost 7.14% 8.78% 8.49% 8.66% 8.64% 8.70% 9.06% 8.06% 8.09% 8.65%
Selling and admin 9.99% 10.87% 9.77% 9.10% 9.41% 9.09% 8.60% 8.01% 7.90% 0.00%
Other Expenses 2.58% 3.15% 2.73% 2.32% 2.15% 2.48% 2.18% 1.83% 1.85% 15.86%
Other Income 3.17% 3.78% 4.11% 5.16% 4.30% 4.89% 5.23% 3.15% 2.96% 3.84%
Depreciation 2.65% 2.75% 2.70% 2.85% 2.89% 3.33% 3.34% 2.86% 2.55% 2.56%
Interest 0.23% 0.20% 0.11% 0.26% 0.15% 0.16% 0.12% 0.10% 0.11% 0.06%
Profit before tax 37.00% 37.91% 37.47% 40.07% 39.62% 40.57% 36.42% 34.20% 36.54% 38.25%
Tax 11.84% 13.67% 12.97% 13.62% 13.06% 8.99% 9.25% 8.64% 9.08% 9.01%
Net profit 24.89% 23.84% 24.06% 25.94% 26.05% 30.99% 26.72% 25.13% 27.06% 28.86%
Dividend Amount 12.91% 17.45% 13.49% 14.47% 14.58% 25.26% 26.86% 23.37% 27.16% 24.22%
EBITDA 39.62% 40.46% 39.84% 42.67% 42.15% 43.48% 39.43% 36.73% 38.80% 40.50%
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Total Liabilities 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Equity Share Capital 1.74% 1.56% 2.17% 1.90% 1.71% 1.59% 1.67% 1.60% 1.45% 1.36%
Reserves 67.32% 81.07% 80.86% 79.84% 80.73% 82.84% 80.15% 79.31% 79.12% 79.78%
Borrowings 0.58% 0.16% 0.08% 0.06% 0.02% 0.36% 0.37% 0.32% 0.36% 0.33%
Other Liabilities 30.35% 17.21% 16.89% 18.20% 17.54% 15.21% 17.82% 18.77% 19.07% 18.53%
Total Assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Net Block 33.30% 29.25% 28.43% 25.72% 27.01% 28.09% 31.59% 31.39% 30.12% 30.31%
Capital Work in Progress 5.88% 4.96% 6.67% 8.57% 5.77% 4.21% 5.44% 4.18% 3.50% 3.10%
Investments 15.11% 22.74% 31.45% 34.33% 34.91% 37.08% 33.72% 32.18% 34.27% 33.88%
Other Assets 5.53% 10.06% 9.19% 11.02% 9.95% 6.41% 5.45% 8.96% 9.27% 5.05%
Receivables 4.31% 3.71% 4.43% 4.18% 5.62% 3.31% 3.39% 3.19% 3.44% 4.38%
Inventory 18.69% 17.54% 14.52% 11.67% 10.96% 11.49% 14.10% 14.07% 13.71% 15.41%
Cash & Bank 17.18% 11.74% 5.31% 4.51% 5.79% 9.41% 6.32% 6.03% 5.69% 7.86%
Ratio Analysis
Ratio Analysis - ITC LTD
Years Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Trend Mean Median
SalesGrowth 0.97% 9.12% 1.59% 11.26% 2.17% -0.26% 23.12% 16.94% -0.05% 7.21% 2.17%
EBITDA Growth 1.96% 6.46% 6.79% 12.21% 4.35% -11.78% 20.85% 24.64% 2.14% 7.51% 6.46%
EBIT Growth 1.85% 6.67% 6.32% 12.53% 3.21% -12.81% 22.59% 26.48% 2.41% 7.69% 6.32%
Net Profit Growth -6.07% 8.74% 6.13% 16.24% 22.50% -17.98% 25.80% 27.85% 3.59% 9.64% 8.74%
Dividend Growth 36.00% -16.18% 8.42% 11.65% 76.52% 5.91% 6.98% 34.78% -11.29% 16.98% 8.42%
Gross Margin 49.28% 51.11% 48.68% 49.44% 49.90% 50.74% 45.43% 43.85% 45.99% 52.90% 48.73% 49.36%
EBITDA Margin 36.71% 37.08% 36.17% 38.02% 38.35% 39.17% 34.64% 34.01% 36.24% 37.04% 36.74% 36.88%
EBIT Margin 34.07% 34.33% 33.48% 35.18% 35.46% 35.84% 31.30% 31.15% 33.69% 34.48% 33.90% 34.20%
EBT Margin 33.83% 34.13% 33.36% 34.91% 35.31% 35.67% 31.19% 31.05% 33.58% 34.41% 33.75% 33.98%
Net Profit Margin 21.99% 20.46% 20.39% 21.30% 22.25% 26.68% 21.94% 22.41% 24.51% 25.40% 22.73% 22.12%
SalesExpenses%Sales 12.56% 14.03% 12.51% 11.42% 11.56% 11.57% 10.78% 9.84% 9.75% 15.86% 11.99% 11.56%
Depreciation%Sales 2.65% 2.75% 2.70% 2.85% 2.89% 3.33% 3.34% 2.86% 2.55% 2.56% 2.85% 2.80%
OperatingIncome%Sales 34.07% 34.33% 33.48% 35.18% 35.46% 35.84% 31.30% 31.15% 33.69% 34.48% 33.90% 34.20%
Return on Capital Employed 41.32% 31.46% 30.82% 29.09% 28.98% 27.00% 25.44% 30.13% 34.40% 32.67% 31.13% 30.47%
Retained Earnings% 41.31% 14.69% 33.82% 32.07% 34.46% 5.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.65% 16.63% 10.00%
Return on Equity% 26.90% 18.79% 18.78% 17.62% 18.19% 20.19% 17.91% 21.76% 25.13% 24.16% 20.94% 19.49%
Self Sustained Growth Rate 11.11% 2.76% 6.35% 5.65% 6.27% 1.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.12% 3.43% 1.94%
Interest Coverage Ratio 145.38x 172.20x 292.00x 132.90x 240.07x 217.48x 265.99x 314.90x 307.26x 531.72x 261.99x 253.03x
Debtor Turnover Ratio 19.58x 20.44x 17.28x 16.20x 11.98x 19.27x 19.69x 24.63x 23.99x 17.61x 19.07x 19.43x
Creditor Turnover Ratio 2.78x 4.41x 4.53x 3.72x 3.84x 4.20x 3.75x 4.18x 4.33x 4.17x 3.99x 4.18x
Inventory Turnover 4.52x 4.32x 5.27x 5.80x 6.15x 5.56x 4.74x 5.58x 6.02x 5.01x 5.30x 5.42x
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.54x 2.59x 2.69x 2.63x 2.50x 2.27x 2.11x 2.50x 2.74x 2.55x 2.51x 2.54x
Capital Turnover Ratio 1.22x 0.92x 0.92x 0.83x 0.82x 0.76x 0.82x 0.97x 1.03x 0.95x 0.92x 0.92x
Debtor Days 19 18 21 23 30 19 19 15 15 21 20 19
Payable Days 131 83 81 98 95 87 97 87 84 88 93 87
Inventory Days 81 84 69 63 59 66 77 65 61 73 70 67
Cash Conversion Cycle (in days) -32 19 10 -13 -5 -2 -2 -7 -8 6 -3 -4
CFO/Sales 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CFO/Total Assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CFO/Total Debt 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Forecasting
ITC LTD - Sales Forecasting ITC LTD - EBITDA Forecasting
Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year EBITDA EBITDA Growth
1 2015A 38,817.2 1 2015A 14,251.6
2 2016A 39,192.1 0.97% 2 2016A 14,531.5 1.96%
3 2017A 42,767.6 9.12% 3 2017A 15,469.5 6.46%
4 2018A 43,448.9 1.59% 4 2018A 16,520.6 6.79%
5 2019A 48,339.6 11.26% 5 2019A 18,537.4 12.21%
6 2020A 49,387.7 2.17% 6 2020A 19,343.5 4.35%
7 2021A 49,257.5 -0.26% 7 2021A 17,064.8 -11.78%
8 2022A 60,644.5 23.12% 8 2022A 20,623.2 20.85%
9 2023A 70,919.0 16.94% 9 2023A 25,704.3 24.64%
10 2024A 70,881.0 -0.05% 10 2024A 26,254.4 2.14%
11 2025E 71,982.9 1.55% 11 2025E 25,978.1 -1.05%
12 2026E 75,731.5 5.21% 12 2026E 27,277.7 5.00%
13 2027E 79,480.1 4.95% 13 2027E 28,577.4 4.76%
14 2028E 83,228.7 4.72% 14 2028E 29,877.0 4.55%
15 2029E 86,977.4 4.50% 15 2029E 31,176.7 4.35%
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
ITC LTD - Earning Before Tax Forecasting ITC LTD - Earnings per Shares Forecasting
Year Weight Year EBT EBT Growth Year Weight Year EPS EBT Growth
1 2015A 13,132.7 1 2015A 7.1
2 2016A 13,376.0 1.85% 2 2016A 6.6 -6.44%
3 2017A 14,267.7 6.67% 3 2017A 7.2 8.06%
4 2018A 15,169.3 6.32% 4 2018A 7.6 5.63%
5 2019A 17,069.4 12.53% 5 2019A 8.8 15.72%
6 2020A 17,617.3 3.21% 6 2020A 10.7 22.17%
7 2021A 15,361.2 -12.81% 7 2021A 8.8 -18.10%
8 2022A 18,830.8 22.59% 8 2022A 11.0 25.65%
9 2023A 23,817.5 26.48% 9 2023A 14.0 26.77%
10 2024A 24,392.0 2.41% 10 2024A 14.4 3.12%
11 2025E 23,915.5 -1.95% 11 2025E 14.4 -0.44%
12 2026E 25,117.7 5.03% 12 2026E 15.2 6.00%
13 2027E 26,319.9 4.79% 13 2027E 16.1 5.66%
14 2028E 27,522.1 4.57% 14 2028E 16.9 5.36%
15 2029E 28,724.3 4.37% 15 2029E 17.8 5.08%
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
2021A
2022A
2023A
2024A
Intrinsic Value
Calculation of ROIC Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Current Assets
Inventories 8,879.0 10,397.0 10,864.0 11,771.0 14,153.0
Trade receivables 2,562.0 2,502.0 2,462.0 2,956.0 4,026.0
Short term loans 6.0 7.0 11.0 13.0 10.0
Other asset items 4,952.0 4,015.0 6,906.0 7,941.0 4,625.0
Total Current Assests 16,399.0 16,921.0 20,243.0 22,681.0 22,814.0
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 3,630.0 4,319.0 4,417.0 4,659.0 4,798.0
Advance from Customers 703.0 811.0 1,278.0 1,295.0 -
Other liability items 7,050.0 7,666.0 8,429.0 10,032.0 11,835.0
Total Current Liabilities 11,383.0 12,796.0 14,124.0 15,986.0 16,633.0
Date Closing Price Return Closing Price Return Levered Raw Beta 0.50
04-06-2024 414.1 21,926.1 Raw Beta Weight 75.00%
03-06-2024 422.9 2.11% 23,263.9 6.10%
27-05-2024 419.0 -0.91% 22,530.7 -3.15% Market Beta 1.00
20-05-2024 428.6 2.29% 22,957.1 1.89% Market Beta Weight 25.00%
13-05-2024 429.0 0.10% 22,466.1 -2.14%
06-05-2024 425.8 -0.76% 22,055.2 -1.83% Adjusted Beta 0.62
29-04-2024 428.8 0.72% 22,475.8 1.91%
22-04-2024 432.3 0.81% 22,419.9 -0.25%
15-04-2024 417.3 -3.47% 22,147.0 -1.22%
08-04-2024 422.6 1.26% 22,519.4 1.68%
01-04-2024 420.1 -0.59% 22,513.7 -0.03%
25-03-2024 420.9 0.19% 22,326.9 -0.83%
18-03-2024 421.1 0.06% 22,096.8 -1.03%
11-03-2024 411.8 -2.22% 22,023.3 -0.33%
04-03-2024 406.3 -1.32% 22,493.6 2.14%
26-02-2024 402.4 -0.98% 22,338.8 -0.69%
19-02-2024 404.2 0.46% 22,212.7 -0.56%
12-02-2024 397.5 -1.65% 22,040.7 -0.77%
05-02-2024 402.3 1.21% 21,782.5 -1.17%
29-01-2024 426.2 5.92% 21,853.8 0.33%
22-01-2024 441.2 3.53% 21,352.6 -2.29%
15-01-2024 456.6 3.48% 21,622.4 1.26%
08-01-2024 451.9 -1.02% 21,894.6 1.26%
01-01-2024 458.9 1.55% 21,710.8 -0.84%
25-12-2023 447.5 -2.50% 21,731.4 0.09%
18-12-2023 440.8 -1.49% 21,349.4 -1.76%
11-12-2023 443.7 0.66% 21,456.7 0.50%
04-12-2023 434.9 -1.98% 20,969.4 -2.27%
27-11-2023 435.6 0.14% 20,267.9 -3.35%
20-11-2023 423.9 -2.67% 19,794.7 -2.33%
13-11-2023 425.3 0.33% 19,731.8 -0.32%
06-11-2023 422.7 -0.61% 19,425.3 -1.55%
30-10-2023 419.5 -0.76% 19,230.6 -1.00%
23-10-2023 420.0 0.12% 19,047.3 -0.95%
16-10-2023 424.4 1.05% 19,542.7 2.60%
09-10-2023 434.2 2.29% 19,751.1 1.07%
02-10-2023 428.2 -1.38% 19,653.5 -0.49%
25-09-2023 430.3 0.51% 19,638.3 -0.08%
18-09-2023 429.1 -0.29% 19,674.3 0.18%
11-09-2023 434.2 1.18% 20,192.3 2.63%
04-09-2023 428.6 -1.27% 19,819.9 -1.84%
28-08-2023 427.1 -0.36% 19,435.3 -1.94%
21-08-2023 429.3 0.52% 19,265.8 -0.87%
14-08-2023 427.7 -0.38% 19,310.2 0.23%
07-08-2023 434.5 1.61% 19,428.3 0.61%
31-07-2023 440.6 1.38% 19,517.0 0.46%
24-07-2023 453.6 2.97% 19,646.1 0.66%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
All figures in INR unless stated otherwise
Peer Comps
Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
Name of Comp Country Total Debt Total Equity Tax Rate 1 Equity Capital Beta 2 Beta 3
Assumptions
Amount in crores
499.7
500.0 475.5
400.0 363.5
399.35
287.6
300.0
246.4 192.3
200.0
204.3 194.1
Value at Risk (VAR) & Monte Carlo Simulation
Date Adj Close Return Sorted Returns Replication Simulated Returns Calculation of Value at Risk - ITC LTD
17-07-2017 256.06 0.78381846 0.14268135 1 -0.022014072
20-03-2020 143.55 -0.2536678 0.13739451 2 -0.008209228 Historical Approach
31-01-2020 192.34 0.33874182 0.13270707 3 0.020962002 Mean -0.05%
11-03-2020 143.67 11.4420203 0.12740679 4 0.019891121 Standard Deviation 2.02%
06-02-2001 11.55 1.16438368 0.1130629 5 -0.043954745 Min -14.13%
28-03-1997 5.34 -0.4674927 0.11108091 6 -0.005506576 Max 14.27%
05-09-2001 10.02 0.24961927 0.10964266 7 -0.04244815 CMP 417.3
08-12-1997 8.02 0.06819742 0.10945028 8 -0.016425566
27-10-1997 7.51 -0.4096581 0.10824139 9 0.023114018 Percentile Confidence VAR% Stock Price VAR(INR)
14-05-2004 12.71 -0.7184962 0.10812961 10 -0.011766713 5.0% 95.0% -3.2% 430.63 -13.33
21-01-2008 45.16 -0.6596736 0.10360827 11 0.020711766 1.0% 99.0% -6.1% 442.82 -25.52
13-03-2020 132.71 12.283805 0.1018677 12 -0.05174461 0.5% 99.5% -7.3% 447.97 -30.67
26-05-1998 9.99 0.01313672 0.09124151 13 -0.044386332 10.0% 90.0% -2.3% 426.73 -9.43
01-11-2001 9.86 -0.0197149 0.08772721 14 -0.018123995
12-03-2001 10.06 0.12673025 0.08763095 15 0.011975029
14-04-2000 8.93 -0.1397115 0.08695321 16 -0.029192552 Monte Carlo Simulation
03-04-2000 10.38 -0.1532986 0.08694175 17 -0.00971885 Mean -0.09%
22-02-2000 12.26 0.35917162 0.08688856 18 -0.060706468 Standard Deviation 2.03%
02-10-1998 9.02 0.09789839 0.0866376 19 -0.009845788 Min -6.93%
17-04-2000 8.21 -0.2039878 0.08627526 20 -0.007882021 Max 7.81%
24-01-2000 10.32 -0.1071489 0.08621765 21 0.021906201 CMP
14-01-2000 11.56 -0.7556363 0.08588729 22 0.023542693
18-05-2009 47.29 3.10173484 0.08558682 23 0.040632229 Percentile Confidence VAR% Stock Price VAR(INR)
14-10-1999 11.53 0.56892291 0.0847726 24 0.001159503 5.0% 95.0% -3.3% 431.25 -13.95
05-05-2000 7.35 -0.0196285 0.08465439 25 -0.001511192 1.0% 99.0% -4.7% 436.72 -19.42
21-04-2000 7.50 -0.3240578 0.08428278 26 -0.022894091 0.5% 99.5% -5.0% 438.34 -21.04
15-03-2000 11.09 0.2050936 0.08407069 27 -0.040228235 10.0% 90.0% -2.7% 428.45 -11.15
29-10-1999 9.20 -0.1004261 0.08388977 28 0.022019924
20-03-2000 10.23 0.00873063 0.08343111 29 -0.000425546 Daily Returns Distribution
27-01-2000 10.14 0.36832407 0.08293942 30 -0.043000846
400
01-05-2000 7.41 -0.4474323 0.07813269 31 0.018474528
350
17-02-2000 13.41 0.28201644 0.07660965 32 0.027089072
300
28-02-2000 10.46 2.25683912 0.07585166 33 -0.019781342
250
15-03-1996 3.21 -0.5400794 0.07521859 34 -0.024577676
200
11-07-1997 6.98 0.01862742 0.07518977 35 -0.015436061
150
13-06-1997 6.86 0.944131 0.07518085 36 0.026067615
100
05-11-1996 3.53 -0.7120314 0.07513228 37 -0.010686192
50
02-04-1999 12.25 1.95203255 0.07437503 38 0.015845044
0
30-10-1996 4.15 -0.5602549 0.07339763 39 0.015343803
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02-03-2000 9.43 2.33639597 0.07292537 40 -0.022146852
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ITC Limited is an Indian conglomerate company, headquartered in Kolkata.It has a presence across six business segments, namely FMCG, hotels,
agribusiness, information technology, paper products, and packaging.It generates a plurality of its revenue from tobacco products.
In terms of market capitalization, ITC is the second-largest FMCG company in India and the third-largest tobacco company in the world.It employs
36,500 people at more than 60 locations across India. Its products are available in 6 million retail outlets in India and exported to 90 countries.
Financial Summary
Revenue (INR Crs.) Net Profit (INR Crs.) Average Total Assets (INR Crs.)
88,829
18,019
17,923 20,459
19,192
17,774
81,513
15,243
13,161
75,536 75,478
17,164
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Return on Equity (INR Crs.) Return on Assets (INR Crs.) Financial Leverage (INR Crs.)
23.54% 23.03%
0.8x
20.19%
19.12% 18.75% 0.8x
17.42%
16.46%
14.15%
0.8x
0.8x
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Recent Updates
• Full Year: Gross Revenue at Rs 69,446 crore, up 6.8% (ex-Agri Business) and PAT at Rs 20,422 crore up 8.9% YoY
• Board recommends Final Dividend of Rs 7.50 per share. Including Interim Dividend of Rs 6.25 per share paid on 27th February, 2024, Total
Dividend for the financial year ended 31st March, 2024 amounts to Rs 13.75 per share (FY23: Ordinary Dividend of Rs 12.75 per share and
Special Dividend of Rs 2.75 per share).
FMCG Segment:
• Full Year Segment Revenue and Segment PBIT up 9.6% and 29.4% YoY respectively; margins expanded by 130 bps YoY
• 2-yr CAGR: Segment Revenue 14.5%, Segment PBIT 38.8%
Cigarettes Segment:
• Full Year Net Segment Revenue and Segment PBIT up 7.1% and 6.5% YoY respectively
• 2-yr CAGR: Net Segment Revenue 13.5%, Segment PBIT 13.3%
Hotels Segment:
• Full Year Segment Revenue and Segment PBIT up 15.6% and 39.1% YoY respectively; Segment EBITDA margin up 295 bps YoY to
35.1%
Agri Business Segment:
Dupont Analysis - Return on Equity & Return on Asset
Return on Equity (ROE)
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Net Profit 11,271.2 12,592.3 15,306.2 13,161.2 15,242.7 19,191.7 20,458.8
Average Shareholder Equity 75,716.6 85,395.9 94,843.7 92,984.0 92,629.2 1,00,383.0 1,09,084.6
Return on Equity 14.89% 14.75% 16.14% 14.15% 16.46% 19.12% 18.75%
Average Total Assets 60,069.6 67,990.0 74,524.9 75,535.8 75,478.4 81,513.5 88,828.6
Average Shareholder Equity 75,716.6 85,395.9 94,843.7 92,984.0 92,629.2 1,00,383.0 1,09,084.6
Equity Multiplier (C) 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x
Return on Equity (A*B*C) 14.89% 14.75% 16.14% 14.15% 16.46% 19.12% 18.75%
Return on Assets (A*B) 18.76% 18.52% 20.54% 17.42% 20.19% 23.54% 23.03%
Dupont Summary
• ROE experienced significant growth from 14.89% in 2018 to 18.75% in 2024, it shows improvement in the
company's profitability in using shareholders' equity.
• The Net profit Margin increased from 65.88% in 2018 to 114.15% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability
relative to sales over the period till 2024.
• The Asset Turnover Ratio decresed from 0.3x from 2018 to 0.2x in 2024, suggesting disimprove efficiency in
using assets to generate revenue.
• The Equity Multiplier remained constant from 0.8x in 2018 to 0.8x in 2024, indicating a consistent level of
financial leverage.
• The ROA increased significantly from 18.76% in 2018 to 23.03% in 2024, indicating a improvement in the
company's efficiency in generating profits from its assets.
Disclaimer: This report id made as a part of educational assignment and is meant for educational purpose only. The author of this report is not
liable for any losses due to action taken basis this report. It is advisable to consult SEBI registered research analyst before making any