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Simulation Building Model

The study aims to develop an explanatory model to address urban traffic congestion using system dynamics. Key variables and feedback loops that drive congestion are identified. A simulation model is created and tested policies like enhancing public transportation are proposed and tested to alleviate congestion. The effectiveness of interventions is evaluated based on their impact on traffic and congestion levels.

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amina
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7 views

Simulation Building Model

The study aims to develop an explanatory model to address urban traffic congestion using system dynamics. Key variables and feedback loops that drive congestion are identified. A simulation model is created and tested policies like enhancing public transportation are proposed and tested to alleviate congestion. The effectiveness of interventions is evaluated based on their impact on traffic and congestion levels.

Uploaded by

amina
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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System Dynamics Problem: Traffic Congestion in Urban Areas

Urbanised city transportation simulation needs a wide range of factors to reflect the influence of certain
real-life events accurately. The vehicle composition and the timing of the traffic light signal scheduling
play an important role in controlling the traffic flow and facilitate road users, particularly in densely
populated urban cities. Since road capacity in urban cities changes throughout the day, an optimal traffic
light signal duration might be different. Hence, in this paper, the effect of vehicle composition and traffic
light phases on traffic flow during peak and off-peak hours in Georgetown, Penang, one of the highly
populated cities in Malaysia, is investigated. Through Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), this complex system
is simulated by integrating the driver’s behaviour into the model using the GIS and Agent-Based
Modelling Architecture (GAMA) simulation platform. The result of predicted traffic flow varies significantly
depending on the vehicle composition while the duration of the traffic signal timing has little impact on
traffic flow during peak hours. However, during off-peak hour, it is suggested that 20 s duration of green
light provides the highest flow compared to 30 s and 40 s duration of green light. This concludes that the
planning for traffic light phasing should consider multiple factors since the vehicle composition and traffic
light timing for an effective traffic flow varies according to the volume of road user.

The study aims to develop an explanatory model to address urban traffic congestion using system
dynamics. The process begins with identifying a real-world problem and defining the model's objectives.
Through the creation of a Causal Loop Diagram, we outline the key variables and feedback loops that
drive the system's behavior.

Next, we translate this conceptual framework into a simulation model using Stella software. By running
various simulation experiments, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the system under different scenarios.
These experiments help us understand how feedback loops and changes in variables impact the overall
system.

We then propose and test structural changes and policies, such as enhancing public transportation and
implementing congestion charges, to alleviate the identified problem. The effectiveness of these
interventions is evaluated based on their impact on traffic volume and congestion levels.

The assignment concludes with a detailed analysis of the simulation results, offering insights and practical
recommendations for managing urban traffic. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding
of system dynamics and the application of explanatory models to solve complex real-world problem.

Problem Identification
Example Problem: Traffic Congestion in Urban Areas

Urban traffic congestion is a significant issue impacting cities globally, causing lost time, increased fuel
consumption, higher emissions, and commuter stress. Despite various mitigation efforts, congestion often
worsens, making it a suitable problem for system dynamics modeling due to its complexity and numerous
interacting variables.

Objective of the model:


The model aims to understand the key factors contributing to urban traffic congestion and explore
potential solutions. Specifically, it seeks to:
Identify the primary causes of traffic congestion.
 Analyze the impact of variables such as road capacity, traffic flow, and public transportation
usage.
 Evaluate the effectiveness of interventions like expanding public transportation, implementing
congestion charges, and improving traffic management systems.

Draw a Reference Model:


Create a graph with time on the x-axis and a relevant variable on the y-axis, such as average commute
time over the past decade, showing an increasing trend from 30 minutes in 2010 to over 50 minutes in
2020. This trend illustrates the worsening congestion problem.

Steps to Create a Reference Mode:


 Collect Data: Gather historical data on average commute time or traffic density.
 Plot the Data: Use a tool like Excel to plot data points over time.
 Identify Patterns: Look for trends or notable changes indicating the problem's evolution.

This clear problem description, objective definition, and reference mode establish a solid foundation for
developing your model and analyzing intervention

Model Structure
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
A CLD visually represents feedback loops and causal relationships among system variables, helping to
understand how elements interact.

Steps to Create a CLD:


1. Identify Key Variables:
 Traffic Volume
 Road Capacity
 Public Transportation Usage
 Traffic Management Systems
 Commuter Behavior
 Urban Development
2. Determine Causal Relationships:
 Increased Traffic Volume → Increased Congestion
 Increased Congestion → Lower Commuter Satisfaction
 Lower Commuter Satisfaction → Increased Public Transportation Usage
 Increased Public Transportation Usage → Decreased Traffic Volume
3. Draw Feedback Loops:
 Reinforcing Loop (R1): Increased Traffic Volume → Increased Congestion → Longer
Commute Times → Decreased Commuter Satisfaction → Use of Alternative Routes →
Increased Traffic Volume
 Balancing Loop (B1): Increased Congestion → Longer Commute Times → Increased
Public Transportation Usage → Decreased Traffic Volume

Provide an Overview of the Model Structure


Key Feedback Loops and Their Impact:

Reinforcing Loop (R1): Shows how increasing traffic volume can create a cycle of worsening congestion.

Balancing Loop (B1): Highlights how increased public transportation usage can mitigate congestion.

Model Structure Explanation:

The model effectively captures the dynamics of urban traffic congestion by illustrating the interplay
between reinforcing and balancing loops. This helps explain how congestion can escalate and how it can
be alleviated by changes in commuter behavior and public transportation usage.

Reinforcing Dynamics: Demonstrates how congestion can grow exponentially due to positive feedback.

Balancing Dynamics: Shows potential interventions like public transportation improvements can
counteract congestion.

Assumptions and Simplifications:

Static Road Capacity: Assumes constant road capacity.

Linear Relationships: Assumes linear interactions between variables.

Behavioral Changes: Assumes commuter behavior changes in response to congestion.

Potential Enhancements:

Dynamic Road Capacity: Include variables for road construction or lane additions.

Non-Linear Relationships: Use non-linear functions for more accuracy.

Detailed Sub-Models: Develop sub-models for specific areas, like ride-sharing impacts.

By defining key variables, causal relationships, and feedback loops, and providing an overview of the
model structure, you ensure a robust foundation for building and analyzing the simulation model. This
explanation sets the stage for generating meaningful insights into urban traffic congestio

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