PROBLEMS

1) A car hire firm has two cars, which it hires out day by day. The number of demands for a car
on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of
days on which (i)neither car is used, and (ii)the proportion f the days on which some demand
is refused.
Solution:
Given that,
λ= 1.5
let, the random variable = X
number of demands = x
The proportion of days on which there are x demands for a car is,
ⅇ −1⋅5 (1⋅5)𝑥
P(X=x) = , x = 0,1,2, …
𝑥!

(i)Proportions of days on which neither car is used is,

(1⋅5)2 (1⋅5)3 (1⋅5)4
P(X=0) = ⅇ −1⋅5 = {1- 1.5 + - + - ……}
2! 3! 4!

= 0.2231
(ii)Proportion of days on which some demand is refused is,
P(X>2) = 1-P(X≤2) = 1-{P(X=0) +P(X=1) +P(X=2)}
(1⋅5)2
= 1- ⅇ −1⋅5 {1+1.5+ }
2!

= 1-0.2231*3.625 = 0.19126

2)An insurance company insures 4,000 people against loss of both eyes in a car accident. Based
on previous data, the rates were computed on the assumption that on the average 10 persons
in 1,00,000 will have car accident each year that result in this type of injury. What is the
probability that more than 3 of the insured will collect on their policy in a given year?
Solution:
Given that,
n = 4000
p = Probability of loss of both eyes in a car accident
10
= 100000 = 0.0001

Since p is very small and n is large,

λ = np = 4000*0.0001=0.4
 X= number of car accidents in the batch of 4000 people
By Poisson probability law,
ⅇ −𝜆 ⋅𝜆𝑥 ⅇ −0.4 (0.4)𝑥
P(X=x) = = , x=1,2,3,
𝑥! 𝑥!

The required probability,

P(X>3) = 1-[P(X=0) +P(X=1) +P(X=2) +P(X=3)]
(0.4)2 (0.4)3
= 1- ⅇ −0.4{(0.4)0 + (0.4) + + }
2! 3!

= 1-0.6703(1+0.4+0.08+0.0107) = 1-0.6703*1.4907
= 0.0008

3)A multiple- choice test consists of 8 questions with 3 answers to each question (of which
only one is correct). A student answers each question by rolling a balanced die and checking
the first answer if he gets 1 or 2, the second answer if he gets 3 or 4 and the third answer if he
gets 5 or 6. To get a distinction, the student must secure at least 75% correct answers. If there
is no negative marking, what is the probability that the student secures a distinction?
Solution:
Probability of getting an answer toa question correctly,
1 2
p= & q = 1-p =
3 3

By Binomial probability law, the probability of getting r correct answers in 8 questions is,
8 ⊥ 𝑥 2 8−𝑥
P(X=x) = p(x)=(𝑥) ( ) (3) ; x= 0,1, 2…,8
3
The required probability of securing a distinction (i.e., of getting correct answers to at least 6
out of the 8 questions) is,
8 1 6 2 8−6 8 1 7 2 8−7 8 1 8 2 8−8
p (6) +p (7) +p (8) = (6) (3) (3) + (7) (3) (3) + (8) (3) (3)

= 0.0197
4)A department in a work has 10 machines which may need adjustment from time to time
during the day. Three of these machines are old, each having a probability of 1/11 of needing
adjustment during the day, and 7 are new , having corresponding probabilities of 1/21.
Assuming that no machine needs adjustment twice on the same day, determine the
probabilities that on a particular day
(i)just 2 old and no new machines need adjustment.
(ii)If just 2 machines need adjustment, they are of same type.
Solution:
 1 10
Let, p1 = Prob that an old machine needs adjustment = 11 ⟶ q1 = 11
1 20
p2 = probability that a new machine needs adjustment = 21 ⟶ q2 = 21

P1(x)= prob that x old machines need adjustment

3 3 1 𝑥 10 3−𝑥
=(𝑥) 𝑝1𝑥 𝑞13−𝑥 = (𝑥) (11) (11) ; x=0,1,2,3.

P2(x)= prob that x new machines need adjustment

7 7 1 𝑥 20 7−𝑥
=(𝑥) 𝑝2𝑥 𝑞27−𝑥 = (𝑥) (21) (21) ; x=0,1,2, 3…,7

(i)The probability that two old machines and no new machine need adjustment is,
3 1 2 10 20 7
P1(2) P2(0) = (2) (11) (11) (21) = 0.016

(ii) The probability that two new machines and no old machine need adjustment is,
10 3 7 1 2 20 7−2
P1(0) P2(2) = (11) (2) (21) (21) = 0.028

5)There are 600 Physics students in the post graduate classes of a university, and the probability
for any student to need a copy of a particular book from the university library on any day is
0.05. How many copies of the book should be kept in the university library so that the
probability that may be greater than 0.90 that name of the students needing a copy from the
library has to come back disappointed?
Solution:
Given that,
n = 600, p = 0.05, µ = np =600*0.05=34

𝜎 2 = npq=600*0.05*0.95=28.5 ⟶ 𝜎 = √28 ⋅ 5 = 5.34

We want x1 such that:
𝑥1 −30
P (X< x1) > 0.90 ⟶ P (Z<z1) >0.90 [ z 1= ]
5.34

P(0<Z<z1) > 0.40 ⟶ z1 >1.28

𝑥1 −30
> 1.28 ⟶ 𝑥1 >30+5.34*1.28, i.e., x1 >36.84
5.34

Hence, the university library should keep at least 37 copies of the book.

6)The local authorities in a certain city instal 10,000 electric lamps in the streets of the
city. If these lamps have an average life of 1,000 burning hours with a standard deviation
of 200 hours, assuming normality, what number of lamps might be expected to fail (i) in
the first 800 burning hours? (ii) between burning hours? After what period of burning
hours would you expect that (a)10% of the lamps would fail? (b) 10% of the lamps would
be still burning?
Solution:
Let, X = the life of bulb in burning hours
Given that,
X~ N (µ, 𝜎 2 ) , where µ =1000 & 𝜎 = 200
(i)The probability ‘p’ that bulb fails in the first 800 burning hours is,
800−1000
p = P(X<800) = P (Z< -1) =P(Z>1) 𝑧= 200

=0.5-P(0<Z<1) =0.5-0.3413=0.1587
Therefore, out of 10,000 bulbs, number of bulbs which fail in the first 800 hours
= 10,000*0.1587 = 1,587

(ii)Required probability = P(800<X<1200) =P(-1<Z<1)

=2P(0<Z<1) =2*0.3413=0.6826
Hence the expected number of bulbs with life between 8000& 1200 hours of burning life
=10000*0.6826=6826
(a)Let 10% of the bulbs fail after x1 hours of burning life, then we have to find x1 such that,
P(X<x1) = 0.10
𝑥1 −1000
When X=x, Z= = −𝑧1 …….(I)
200

Therefore, P(Z<-𝑧1 ) =0.10 ⟶ P(Z>𝑧1 )=0.10 ⟶P(0<Z<𝑧1 )=0.40 ………(II)

Also, P(-1.28<z<1.28)=0.80 (given)
2P(0<Z<1.28) =0.80 ⟶ P(0<Z<1.28) =0.40 ………. (III)
From (II) and (III), we get,
𝑧1 =1.28
𝑥1 −1000
= -1.28 [from (I)]
200

𝑥1 = 1000-256 = 744
Thus, after 744 hours of burning life ,10% of the bulbs will fail.
(b)Let 10% of the bulbs be still burning after x2 hours of burning life. Then,
𝑥2 −1000
P(X> x2) =0.10 ⟶ P(Z>z2) =0.10, ( 𝑧2 = )
200
 ⟶ P(0<Z<𝑧2 )=0.40
𝑧2 = 1.28 [from(III)]
𝑥2 −1000
i.e., = 1.28
200

or, 𝑥2 = 1000+256 = 1256

Hence, after 1256 hours of burning life, 10% of the bulbs will still burning.

7) In an examination it is laid down that a student passes if he secures 30 percent or more

marks. He is placed in the first, second or third division according as he secures 60% or
more marks, between 45%and 60% and marks between 30% and 45% respectively. He
gets distinction in case he secures 80% or more marks. It is noticed from the result that
10% of the students failed in the exam, whereas 5% of them obtained distinction.
Calculate the percentage of students placed in the second division. (Assume normal
distribution of marks.)
Solution:
Let, X= The marks (out of 100) in the examination
X~ N (µ, 𝜎 2 )
Given that,
P(X<30) =0.10 & P(X≥80) =0.05
30−𝜇
When, X= 30, Z= = -z1
𝜎
80−𝜇
X=80, Z= = z2
𝜎

Therefore,
P (0<Z< z2) = 0.5-0.05=0.45
And P (0<Z< z1) = P(-z1<Z<0) = 0.50-0.10=0.40
From normal tables, z1 =1.28 and z2 = 1.64
30−𝜇 𝜇−30 80−𝜇
Hence, = -1.28 ⟶ = 1.28 and = 1.64 [From (I)]
𝜎 𝜎 𝜎

Adding , we get,
50 50
= 2.92 ⟶ 𝜎 = 2.92 = 17.12
𝜎

Therefore, 𝜇 = 30+1.28*17.12=51.9136=52
The probability ‘p’ that a candidate is placed in the second division = The probability that his
score lies between 45 and 60
𝑥−52
i.e., p = P(45<X60) = P(-0.41<Z<0.47) [ Z=17.12 ]
 =P(-0.41<Z<0) +P(0<Z<0.47) = P(0<Z<0.41) +P(0<Z<0.47) [by symmetry]
= 0.1591+0.1808=0.3399=0.34(approx.)
Hence, 34% candidates got second division in the examination.