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Conditional Probability Bayes Theorem

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19 views33 pages

Conditional Probability Bayes Theorem

Uploaded by

dilipkalita2021
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Some Basic Definitions

Trials & Events : If an experiment is repeated under essentially the same conditions and it result in
any one of the several possible outcomes, then the experiment is called a trial and the possible
outcomes are known as events. Eg : Tossing of a coin is trial and turning up of head/tail is and event.

Exhaustive Events: The outcomes of a random experiment is called exhaustive events if it covers all
the possible outcomes of the experiment. Eg : In rolling of a die, the outcomes 1,2,3,4,5,6 are
exhaustive events.

Favourable Events: The events which entail the required happening are called favourable events. Eg
: In throwing of two dice the number of favourable cases of getting sum 7 is 6 viz. (1,6), (6,1), (2,5),
(5,2), (3,4), (4,3).

Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if occurrence of
one of them excludes the occurrence of the other. Eg : While tossing a coin we either get a head or a
tail but not both.
Independent Events: Two or more events are said to be independent events if happening or
non-happening of one doesn’t depend on the happening or non-happening of the other. Eg : Two coins
tossed at the same time, the outcome of one is independent of the outcome of the other.

Equally likely events: Two events are said to be equally likely if there is no reason to expect anyone
with preference to other. Eg : Head and tail are equally likely to come.

Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called sample space. It is
denotes by S.
Classical Definition of Probability

Let S be the sample space and E be an event. Then probability of occurrence or


happening of E is denoted by P(E) and is defined as
Axioms of Probability

Let S be the sample space and E be an event. Then

● 0≤P(E)≤1
● P(S)=1
● If E1 ,E2,...,En be n mutually exclusive events then

P(E1 ∪E2∪...∪En)=P(E1)+P(E2)+....+P(En)
Notes
● P(ɸ)=0
● If E be an event then Probability of non-happening of E is denoted by P(Ē) or and is given by
P(Ē)=1-P(E).
● P(Ā∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B)
● P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive then A∩B=ɸ ⇒P(A∩B)=0

Then P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)

● P(A∪B∪C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)−P(A∩B)−P(B∩C)−P(C∩A)+P(A∩B∩C)

If A, B and C are mutually exclusive then P(A∪B∪C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)


Conditional Probability
Let A and B be any two events of a random experiment. Then Probability of
occurrence of A given that B has already occurred is denoted by P(A/B) and is
defined as
Properties
Let A and B be any two events of a sample space S then
Questions
1. A pair of dice is rolled, find if

A : 3 appears on one die

B : sum of number appearing is 7

2. A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards and then a second card is drawn, find

The probability that the first card is a spade and then second card is a club if the first card is

not replaced.\
Multiplicative Law of Probability

The probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events is equal to the probability of one multiplied by
the conditional probability of the other i.e. if A and B be two events then probability of simultaneous occurrence
of both is given by
A and B throw alternatively with a single die. A having the first throw. The person who first
throws an ace is to win. What are their respective chances of winning ?
A bag contains 10 balls, two of which are red, three blue and five black. Three balls are drawn at
random from the bag. What is the probability that
(i) three balls are of different colours
(ii) two balls are of same colour
(iii)the balls are of different colour
Q. An integer is chosen at random from first 200 positive integers. What is the probability that the
integer chosen is divisible by 6 or 8 ?

Q. A, B and C in order, toss a coin. The first one to throw a head winds. If A starts first find their
respective probability of winning.

Q. Find the chance of throwing 5 or 6 at least once in four throws of die.

Q. A purse contains 2 silver and 4 copper coins. A second purse contains 4 silver and 3 copper coins. If a
coin is pulled out of a random from one of the two purse, what is the probability that it is silver coins ?
BAYES’ THEOREM
A bag X contains 2 white and 3 red balls and a bag Y contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn
at random from one of the bags and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag Y.
An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of
accident is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets an accident. What is the probability
that he is a scooter driver?
A man is known to speak truth 3 out 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the
probability that it is actually a six.
Suppose that 5% of men and 0.25% of women have a grey hair. A grey haired person is selected at
random. What is the probability of this person being a male ? Assume that there are equal number of
males and females.
Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of
heads. If she gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a head or tail is obtained. If she
obtained exactly one head, what is the probability that she threw 1, 2, 3 or 4 with the die ?

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