Moving Average 3 Month Moving Avg

Month Actual Sale 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month Error Absolute Error MAD Error Square MAPE
24-Jan 10
24-Feb 12
24-Mar 13
24-Apr 16 11.67 4.33 4.33 4.33 18.78 0.27
24-May 19 13.67 12.75 5.33 5.33 5.33 28.44 0.28
24-Jun 23 16.00 15.00 14.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 49.00 0.30
24-Jul 26 19.33 17.75 16.60 15.50 6.67 6.67 6.67 44.44 0.26
24-Aug 30 22.67 21.00 19.40 18.17 7.33 7.33 7.33 53.78 0.24
24-Sep 28 26.33 24.50 22.80 21.17 1.67 1.67 1.67 2.78 0.06
24-Oct 18 28.00 26.75 25.20 23.67 (10.00) 10.00 10.00 100.00 0.56
24-Nov 16 25.33 25.50 25.00 24.00 (9.33) 9.33 9.33 87.11 0.58
24-Dec 14 20.67 23.00 23.60 23.50 (6.67) 6.67 6.67 44.44 0.48
24-Jan 16.00 19.00 21.20 22.00 MAD 6.48
MSE 47.64
MAPE 33.68
 4 Month Moving Avg 5 Month Moving Avg 6 Month Moving Avg
Absolute Error Error Square FOR MAPE Absolute Error Error Square FOR MAPE Absolute Error Error Square FOR MAPE

6.25 39.06 0.33

8.00 64.00 0.35 9.00 81.00 0.39
8.25 68.06 0.32 9.40 88.36 0.36 10.50 110.25 0.40
9.00 81.00 0.30 10.60 112.36 0.35 11.83 140.03 0.39
3.50 12.25 0.13 5.20 27.04 0.19 6.83 46.69 0.24
8.75 76.56 0.49 7.20 51.84 0.40 5.67 32.11 0.31
9.50 90.25 0.59 9.00 81.00 0.56 8.00 64.00 0.50
9.00 81.00 0.64 9.60 92.16 0.69 9.50 90.25 0.68
7.78 8.57 8.72
64.02 76.25 80.56
39.27 42.00 42.26
 Moving Average 3 Month Moving Avg
Month Actual Sale 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month Error Absolute Err MAD Error Square
24-Jan 10
24-Feb 12
24-Mar 13
24-Apr 16 12.17 3.83 3.83 3.83 14.69
24-May 19 14.33 13.70 4.67 4.67 4.67 21.78
24-Jun 23 17.00 16.20 15.47 6.00 6.00 6.00 36.00
24-Jul 26 20.50 19.40 18.47 17.62 5.50 5.50 5.50 30.25
24-Aug 30 23.83 22.70 21.60 20.62 6.17 6.17 6.17 38.03
24-Sep 28 27.50 26.30 25.13 24.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.25
24-Oct 18 28.33 27.70 26.87 25.95 (10.33) 10.33 10.33 106.78
24-Nov 16 23.33 24.20 24.47 24.33 (7.33) 7.33 7.33 53.78
24-Dec 14 18.67 20.40 21.47 22.05 (4.67) 4.67 4.67 21.78
24-Jan ? 15.33 16.80 18.27 19.33 MAD 5.44
MSE 35.93
MAPE
Moving Avg 4 Month Moving Avg 5 Month Moving Avg 6 Month Moving Avg
MAPE Absolute Err Error Square FOR MAPE Absolute Err Error Square FOR MAPE Absolute Err Error Square FOR MAPE

0.24
0.25 5.30 28.09 0.28
0.26 6.80 46.24 0.30 7.53 56.75 0.33
0.21 6.60 43.56 0.25 7.53 56.75 0.29 8.38 70.24 0.32
0.21 7.30 53.29 0.24 8.40 70.56 0.28 9.38 88.00 0.31
0.02 1.70 2.89 0.06 2.87 8.22 0.10 4.00 16.00 0.14
0.57 9.70 94.09 0.54 8.87 78.62 0.49 7.95 63.24 0.44
0.46 8.20 67.24 0.51 8.47 71.68 0.53 8.33 69.44 0.52
0.33 6.40 40.96 0.46 7.47 55.75 0.53 8.05 64.76 0.57
6.50 7.30 7.68
47.05 56.90 61.95
28.30 33.01 36.50 38.59
Month Actual Sale Demand Forecast with a=.1 Demand Forecast with a=.2 Demand Forecast with a=.3
24-Jan 10 18.75 18.75
24-Feb 12 17.88 17.00
24-Mar 13 17.29 16.00
24-Apr 16 16.86 15.40
24-May 19 16.77 15.52
24-Jun 23 17.00 16.22
24-Jul 26 17.60 17.57
24-Aug 30 18.44 19.26
24-Sep 28 19.59 21.41
24-Oct 18 20.43 22.73
24-Nov 16 20.19 21.78
24-Dec 14 19.77 20.62
24-Jan ? 19.19 19.30

QuarteActual Demand Forcast @.1 Demand Forcast @.2 MAD (For .1)
1 180 175 175 5.00
2 168 175.50 176.00 7.50
3 159 174.75 174.40 15.75
4 175 173.18 171.32 1.82
5 190 173.36 172.06 16.64
6 205 175.02 175.64 29.98
7 180 178.02 181.52 1.98
8 182 178.22 181.21 3.78
9 ? 178.60 181.37
MAD 10.31
MSE
MAPE
Demand Forecast with a=.4 Demand Forecast with a=.5 Demand Forecast with a=.6

MAD (For .2) Error Square (for .1) Error Square (for .2)
5.00 25.00 25.00
8.00 56.25 64.00
15.40 248.06 237.16
3.68 3.33 13.54
17.94 276.97 321.99
29.36 898.70 861.73
1.52 3.92 2.30
0.79 14.31 0.62

10.21
190.82 190.79
Demand Forecast with a=.7 Demand Forecast with a=.8 Demand Forecast with a=.9

MAPE (For .1) MAPE (For .2)

0.03 0.03
0.04 0.05
0.10 0.10
0.01 0.02
0.09 0.09
0.15 0.14
0.01 0.01
0.02 0.00

5.59 5.55
 Demand Forecast MAD
Month Actual Sale 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3
24-Jan 10 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 8.75 8.75 8.75
24-Feb 12 17.88 17.00 16.13 15.25 14.38 13.50 12.63 11.75 10.88 5.88 5.00 4.13
24-Mar 13 17.29 16.00 14.89 13.95 13.19 12.60 12.19 11.95 11.89 4.29 3.00 1.89
24-Apr 16 16.86 15.40 14.32 13.57 13.09 12.84 12.76 12.79 12.89 0.86 0.60 1.68
24-May 19 16.77 15.52 14.82 14.54 14.55 14.74 15.03 15.36 15.69 2.23 3.48 4.18
24-Jun 23 17.00 16.22 16.08 16.33 16.77 17.29 17.81 18.27 18.67 6.00 6.78 6.92
24-Jul 26 17.60 17.57 18.15 19.00 19.89 20.72 21.44 22.05 22.57 8.40 8.43 7.85
24-Aug 30 18.44 19.26 20.51 21.80 22.94 23.89 24.63 25.21 25.66 11.56 10.74 9.49
24-Sep 28 19.59 21.41 23.36 25.08 26.47 27.55 28.39 29.04 29.57 8.41 6.59 4.64
24-Oct 18 20.43 22.73 24.75 26.25 27.24 27.82 28.12 28.21 28.16 2.43 4.73 6.75
24-Nov 16 20.19 21.78 22.72 22.95 22.62 21.93 21.04 20.04 19.02 4.19 5.78 6.72
24-Dec 14 19.77 20.62 20.71 20.17 19.31 18.37 17.51 16.81 16.30 5.77 6.62 6.71
24-Jan ? 19.19 19.30 18.69 17.70 16.65 15.75 15.05 14.56 14.23
MAD 5.73 5.88 5.81
MSE
MAPE

Demand Forecast MAD

Month Actual Sale 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3
24-Jan 10 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 - - -
24-Feb 12 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
24-Mar 13 10.20 10.40 10.60 10.80 11.00 11.20 11.40 11.60 11.80 2.80 2.60 2.40
24-Apr 16 10.48 10.92 11.32 11.68 12.00 12.28 12.52 12.72 12.88 5.52 5.08 4.68
24-May 19 11.03 11.94 12.72 13.41 14.00 14.51 14.96 15.34 15.69 7.97 7.06 6.28
24-Jun 23 11.83 13.35 14.61 15.64 16.50 17.20 17.79 18.27 18.67 11.17 9.65 8.39
24-Jul 26 12.95 15.28 17.12 18.59 19.75 20.68 21.44 22.05 22.57 13.05 10.72 8.88
24-Aug 30 14.25 17.42 19.79 21.55 22.88 23.87 24.63 25.21 25.66 15.75 12.58 10.21
24-Sep 28 15.83 19.94 22.85 24.93 26.44 27.55 28.39 29.04 29.57 12.17 8.06 5.15
24-Oct 18 17.04 21.55 24.40 26.16 27.22 27.82 28.12 28.21 28.16 0.96 3.55 6.40
24-Nov 16 17.14 20.84 22.48 22.90 22.61 21.93 21.04 20.04 19.02 1.14 4.84 6.48
24-Dec 14 17.03 19.87 20.53 20.14 19.30 18.37 17.51 16.81 16.30 3.03 5.87 6.53
24-Jan ? 16.72 18.70 18.57 17.68 16.65 15.75 15.05 14.56 14.23
MAD 6.30 6.00 5.62
MSE
MAPE
 MAD Square Error
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 76.56 76.56 76.56 76.56 76.56 76.56 76.56
3.25 2.38 1.50 0.63 0.25 1.13 34.52 25.00 17.02 10.56 5.64 2.25 0.39
0.95 0.19 0.40 0.81 1.05 1.11 18.38 9.00 3.56 0.90 0.04 0.16 0.66
2.43 2.91 3.16 3.24 3.21 3.11 0.74 0.36 2.82 5.90 8.45 9.99 10.52
4.46 4.45 4.26 3.97 3.64 3.31 4.96 12.11 17.43 19.87 19.83 18.18 15.79
6.67 6.23 5.71 5.19 4.73 4.33 36.05 46.02 47.92 44.55 38.77 32.55 26.96
7.00 6.11 5.28 4.56 3.95 3.43 70.63 71.02 61.56 49.07 37.37 27.90 20.77
8.20 7.06 6.11 5.37 4.79 4.34 133.72 115.39 90.10 67.29 49.80 37.37 28.81
2.92 1.53 0.45 0.39 1.04 1.57 70.68 43.47 21.57 8.54 2.34 0.20 0.15
8.25 9.24 9.82 10.12 10.21 10.16 5.92 22.33 45.55 68.01 85.30 96.47 102.35
6.95 6.62 5.93 5.04 4.04 3.02 17.56 33.41 45.22 48.28 43.80 35.15 25.35
6.17 5.31 4.37 3.51 2.81 2.30 33.31 43.88 44.98 38.06 28.19 19.11 12.32

5.50 5.06 4.65 4.30 4.04 3.88

41.92 41.55 39.52 36.47 33.01 29.66 26.72

MAD Square Error

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 7.84 6.76 5.76 4.84 4.00 3.24 2.56
4.32 4.00 3.72 3.48 3.28 3.12 30.47 25.81 21.90 18.66 16.00 13.84 12.11
5.59 5.00 4.49 4.04 3.66 3.31 63.49 49.90 39.39 31.27 25.00 20.14 16.35
7.36 6.50 5.80 5.21 4.73 4.33 124.80 93.15 70.45 54.10 42.25 33.58 27.18
7.41 6.25 5.32 4.56 3.95 3.43 170.41 114.94 78.77 54.95 39.06 28.28 20.83
8.45 7.13 6.13 5.37 4.79 4.34 248.02 158.18 104.30 71.37 50.77 37.54 28.83
3.07 1.56 0.45 0.39 1.04 1.57 148.20 64.99 26.51 9.42 2.44 0.20 0.15
8.16 9.22 9.82 10.12 10.21 10.16 0.91 12.61 40.91 66.57 84.99 96.43 102.35
6.90 6.61 5.93 5.04 4.04 3.02 1.30 23.43 41.95 47.54 43.68 35.14 25.35
6.14 5.30 4.37 3.51 2.81 2.30 9.15 34.49 42.69 37.66 28.14 19.11 12.32

5.13 4.63 4.15 3.78 3.49 3.23

67.38 49.02 39.72 33.37 28.36 24.29 21.00
 MAPE
0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
76.56 76.56 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88
0.06 1.27 0.49 0.42 0.34 0.27 0.20 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.09
1.10 1.24 0.33 0.23 0.15 0.07 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.09
10.30 9.68 0.05 0.04 0.10 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19
13.26 10.96 0.12 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.17
22.36 18.76 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19
15.57 11.79 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.27 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.15 0.13
22.94 18.86 0.39 0.36 0.32 0.27 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14
1.09 2.45 0.30 0.24 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06
104.21 103.16 0.14 0.26 0.37 0.46 0.51 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.56
16.34 9.09 0.26 0.36 0.42 0.43 0.41 0.37 0.31 0.25 0.19
7.89 5.30 0.41 0.47 0.48 0.44 0.38 0.31 0.25 0.20 0.16

24.31 22.43
32.87 33.77 33.73 32.30 30.04 27.93 26.02 24.53 23.84

MAPE
0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
- - - - - - - - - - -
4.00 4.00 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
1.96 1.44 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.09
10.76 9.73 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.20 0.19
13.37 10.97 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.17
22.38 18.76 0.49 0.42 0.36 0.32 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19
15.57 11.79 0.50 0.41 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.15 0.13
22.94 18.86 0.52 0.42 0.34 0.28 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14
1.09 2.45 0.43 0.29 0.18 0.11 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06
104.21 103.16 0.05 0.20 0.36 0.45 0.51 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.56
16.34 9.09 0.07 0.30 0.40 0.43 0.41 0.37 0.31 0.25 0.19
7.89 5.30 0.22 0.42 0.47 0.44 0.38 0.31 0.25 0.20 0.16

18.37 16.30
28.62 29.29 28.60 26.82 24.62 22.32 20.36 18.72 17.22
Error Type 3-moving 4-moving 5-moving 6-moving 3-Weighted moving
MAD 6.48 7.78 8.57 8.72 5.44
MSE 47.64 64.02 76.25 80.56 35.93
MAPE 33.68 39.27 42.00 42.26 28.30
Forcast Demand 16.00 19.00 21.20 22.00 15.33
4-Weighted moving 5-Weighted moving 6-Weighted moving
6.50 7.30 7.68
47.05 56.90 61.95
33.01 36.50 38.59
16.80 18.27 19.33