NCC Angel 030611
NCC Angel 030611
NCC Angel 030611
On the order booking front, the company faced huge slowdown. The company
bagged orders of mere `577cr for the quarter against the guidance of `3,750cr.
This is despite the fact that the company had maintained this guidance during the
last concall (mid-February 2011) and cited huge L1 orders (~`3,000cr) as one of
the comforting factors.
Exhibit 3: Subdued top-line growth a worrying factor... Exhibit 4: ...with declining signs of order booking
1,600 54.5 60 3,500 102.1 120.0
100.0
1,400 39.0 50 3,000 59.5 80.0
1,200 31.1 40 2,500 31.5 60.0
25.2
40.0
1,000 30 2,000 0.9
16.1 20.0
800 12.612.6 20 (21.3) (16.1)
8.6 1,500 (32.7)(28.8) (29.5) 0.0
4.6 2.0 (20.0)
600 0 0 0 0 10
(4.7) 1,000 (72.1) (40.0)
400 (11.1) 0 (60.0)
500
200 -10 (80.0)
- (100.0)
0 -20
4QFY11
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS) Order Booking (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
PAT fell by 65.3% yoy to `35.7cr (`102.6cr), against our expectation of a 33.6%
decline. Poor bottom-line performance was due to lower-than-expected top-line
growth, higher interest cost (65.3% yoy/31.3% qoq increase; attributed by
increased debt levels and hardening of interest rates) and higher tax rate (41.0%),
in line with our tax assumption of 40% for the quarter. Further, management has
indicated that it has fully provided (`14.5cr) for the tax raid faced during the year
in FY2011 accounts and going ahead the tax rate is expected to be on normal
lines.
Exhibit 5: EBITDAM expected to be under pressure Exhibit 6: PATM to be under pressure as well
140.0 12.0 60.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5
3.8 3.8 3.8
11.5 3.5 3.5 4.0
120.0
10.4 10.4 10.2 10.3 11.0 50.0
3.0 3.5
100.0 9.9 10.5
9.7 9.6 2.7
10.0 40.0 2.5 3.0
80.0
9.0 9.5 2.5
8.8 30.0
60.0 9.0 2.0
40.0 8.5 20.0 1.5
7.6
8.0
20.0 1.0
7.5 10.0
0.0 7.0 0.5
0.0 0.0
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
Roads
485 2,265 809
Buildings
971 Water
5,663
1,618 Irrigation
Electricals
Power
1,780
2,103 Oil/gas etc
485
Metals
International
Change in estimates
Going ahead, we expect NCC’s interest cost to increase on the back of higher debt
requirements to fund its investments in the power project and on potential winning
of road BOT projects. Therefore, this will significantly impact the company’s
bottom-line growth, given the limited cushion from top-line growth.
Exhibit 8: Change in estimates to factor in lower top-line growth and higher interest cost
FY2012E FY2013E
Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%)
Revenue 6,192.1 5,856.1 (5.4) 7,439.2 6,939.2 (6.7)
EBITDA margin (%) 10.1 9.3 (80)bp 9.7 9.7 -
PAT 226.9 148.7 (34.5) 247.0 196.0 (20.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
NCC’s current o/s order book stands at `16,180cr. Going ahead, we expect the
company’s interest cost to increase on the back of higher debt requirements to
fund its investments in the power project and on potential winning of road BOT
projects. We have downgraded the P/E multiple for the stock (from 12x earlier to
10x currently) in light of increased debt levels and disappointing order inflow
(`577cr in 4QFY2011), along with a gloomy macro environment and pressure on
earnings growth in the near to medium term. However, at the current price, the
stock is trading at attractive valuations (6.6x FY13E earnings adjusted for its
investments and subsidiaries) and at 0.8x FY13E on P/BV basis.
Exhibit 10: Key assumptions – Order inflow is expected to get a boost in FY12 on account of captive power order
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Order inflow 4,745 7,571 4,951 7,948 6,800 11,691 12,820
Revenue 2,871 3,473 4,151 4,778 5,074 5,856 6,939
Order backlog (Y/E) 7,302 11,400 12,200 15,370 16,180 24,549 29,930
OB-to-sales ratio (x) 2.5 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 4.2 4.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Key ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 13.2 13.9 10.7 13.4 14.4 10.9
P/CEPS 10.2 10.3 8.5 9.4 9.3 7.3
P/BV 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
EV/Sales 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8
EV/EBITDA 7.8 8.7 7.2 9.2 8.9 8.4
EV / Total Assets 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Order Book to Sales 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 6.9 6.5 8.4 6.2 5.8 7.6
EPS (fully diluted) 6.3 6.0 7.8 6.2 5.8 7.6
Cash EPS 8.2 8.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 11.4
DPS 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
Book Value 61.3 65.7 86.9 92.7 96.9 102.9
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 9.0 7.7 9.0 8.3 7.9 8.3
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2
ROIC (Post-tax) 11.3 8.5 8.8 6.1 6.3 6.8
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 9.8 10.2 9.3 8.2 9.1 8.7
Leverage (x) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Operating ROE 11.9 7.6 8.5 4.5 3.3 4.5
Returns (%)
ROACE (Pre-tax) 14.9 11.8 12.8 9.7 9.0 9.8
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 16.9 12.7 13.4 10.0 9.3 10.1
ROAE 12.4 9.4 10.2 6.9 6.1 7.6
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 6.0 6.5 6.9 5.9 5.6 5.5
Inventory / Sales (days) 50 57 57 59 57 54
Receivables (days) 76 83 89 99 98 99
Payables (days) 144 137 126 131 127 128
WC cycle (ex-
89 120 139 176 178 165
cash/mob.adv)(days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.3
Net debt to EBITDA 1.8 3.0 2.8 4.8 4.9 5.2
Interest Coverage 2.8 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.4
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Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)