Faculty of Information Technology

Modeling and Simulation

(IS 331 )
W1-LAB
Dr. Esmat Mohamed Abdel Moniem
Misr University for Science & Technology
Faculty Of Information Technology
Department of Information Systems
 Course Contents Prac
Total Lectur
Week Tutorial tical
Topics Credit e
No. Hours Hou
Hours Hours
rs
1 Introduction 3 2 0 2
2 Monte Carlo Simulation 3 2 0 2
3 Single Server Queuing System 3 2 0 2
Single Server Performance and detailed modeling
4 3 2 0 2
5 Inventory System Model 3 2 0 2
Advanced Modeling Examples
6 3 2 0 2
Time shared computer model
7 Multi-teller bank with jockeying 3 2 0 2
Input probability selection and Estimation of parameters
8 3 2 0 2
Principles of Sampling and Confidence Intervals
9 3 2 0 2
10 Random Number Generation 3 2 0 2
11 Random Variate Generation 3 2 0 2
12 Generating continuous random variates 3 2 0 2
13 Generating discrete
Dr.Esmat random variates
Mohamed 3 2 0 2
14 Monte-Carlo simulation 3 2 0 2
15Slide 2 Final Written Exam
 Simulation Examples
• Monte Carlo simulation
– Estimating π
– Craps (dice game)
• Time-stepped simulation
– Mortgage scenarios
• Trace-driven simulation
– Single-server queue (ssq1.c)
• Discrete-event simulation
– Witchcraft hair salon

3
 Simulation Examples

• Monte Carlo simulation

–Estimating π
–Craps (dice game)

4
 Example 3

Use the one-digit Random Number (6, 3, 5, 0, 8) to generate

random observations for :
a) Throwing an unbiased coin,
b) Throwing a die,
c) The color of a traffic found by a randomly arriving car
when it is green 40% of the time, yellow 10% of the time,
and red 50% of the time.
Example 3: Solution (6, 3, 5, 0, 8)

a)To simulate a coin using one digit R.N.(0-9),

let 0 - 4 Represent a Head and
5 – 9 Represent a Tail;
so the solution will be:

R. Observations
(6, 3, 5, 0, 8) (T, H, T, H, T)
Example 3: Solution (6, 3, 5, 0, 8)

b) To simulate a die using number 0 – 9.

Let: 1 – 6 represents the faces of the die; then
0, 7, 8 and 9 are rejected.
So the solution will be

R. Observations
(6, 3, 5, 0, 8) (6, 3, 5, reject, reject)
 Example 3: Solution (6, 3, 5, 0, 8)

c) Divide 0 – 9 into 3 classes according to the

given probability:
Green 40% 0, 1, 2, 3
Yellow 10% 4
Red 50% 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

R. Observations
So (6, 3, 5, 0, 8) (Red, Green, Red ,Green, Red)
 Example 4: A news boy
Demand Types of new days
A news boy buys paper for 15 P.T.
Good Typical Poor
each and sells them for 25 P.T. each. Unsold
papers have no value in analyzing past sells, it 40 0.05
is found that three demand distribution exist, 50 0.20 0.03
depending on news events in the papers. A 60 0.41 0.07
good interesting news day yield to many 70 0.26 0.28
potential customer, typical and poor days yield 80 0.08 0.30 0.02
to less interest. Historically 20% of days have 90 0.25 0.15
been “good”, 50% “typical”, 30% “Poor”, The 100 0.07 0.28
demand distributions are summarized :
110 0.24
Simulate 10 days period and determine main
120 0.12
daily profit, max profit, min profit if he decides
130 0.09
to buy 80 papers each day. Use the following
R.N :- 140 0.06
09 65 69 66 57 64 84 24 92 22 150 0.04
49 50 61 01 45 48 48 45 52 35
 Example 4: Solution (A news boy)
Demand Types of new days
Good 00 --> 19 Typical 20 --> 69 Poor 70 --> 99

40 0.05 00 --> 04
50 0.20 05 --> 25 0.03 00 --> 02
60 0.41 26--> 67 0.07 03--> 09
70 0.26 68 --> 94 0.28 10 --> 37
80 0.06 95 --> 99 0.3 38 --> 67 0.02 00 --> 01
90 0.25 68 --> 92 0.15 02 --> 16
100 0.07 93--> 99 0.28 17 --> 44
110 0.24 45 --> 68
120 0.12 69 --> 80
130 0.09 81 --> 89
140 0.06 90 --> 95
150 0.04 96 --> 99
 Example 4: Solution (A news boy)
Use the following R.N :-
09 65 69 66 57 64 84 24 92 22
49 50 61 01 45 48 48 45 52 35
1st Day:
RN 09 --> Good
RN 65 --> demand = 60
Profit = 60*25 – 80*15 = 300 P.T
2nd Day:
RN 69 --> Typical
RN 66 --> demand = 80
Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T
3rd Day:
RN 57 --> Typical
RN 64 --> demand = 80
Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T
4th Day:
RN 84 --> poor
RN 24 --> demand = 100
Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T ; we calculate with demand 80 NOT
100 as the newsboy buy only 80 news paper each day.
30/07/2022
 Use the following R.N :-
09 65 69 66 57 64 84 24 92 22
49 50 61 01 45 48 48 45 52 35

5th Day: 9th Day:

RN 92 --> poor RN 48 --> Typical
RN 22 --> demand = 100 RN 45 --> demand = 80
Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T
6th Day: 10th Day:
RN 49 --> Typical RN 52 --> Typical
RN 50 --> demand = 80 RN 35 --> demand = 70
Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T Profit = 70*25 – 80*15 = 550 P.T
7th Day:
RN 61 --> Typical MIN profit: in 7th day which is 50 P.T
RN 01 --> demand = 50 MAX profit: is 800 P.T
Profit = 50*25 – 80*15 = 50 P.T Main daily profit:
8th Day: 300+800+800+800+800+800+50+800+
RN 45 --> Typical 800+550/10=650 PT
RN 48 --> demand = 80
Profit = 80*25 – 80*15 = 800 P.T

30/07/2022
Example 5: The owner of car renting company, pays a penalty for
each accident according to the following distribution:
Amount of money/accident Probability
50 L.E 0.30
100 L.E 0.30
150 L.E 0.25
200 L.E 0.15

The accidents occur with the probability of 30% (number of accidents per
day is up to 6). Number of accidents per day has the following distribution:
Number of accidents Probability
2 0.05
3 0.15
4 0.40
5 0.25
6 0.15

30/07/2022
 Example 5: The owner of car renting company

Simulate 12 days. Based on your simulation what is the minimum

money the owner must have to cover the penalties occurred per
day.
Use the following R.N:
92 44 99 15 97 21 47 80 28 87 13 33 42 84 27 64
59 33 84 00 10 50 51 09 31 12 94 96 97 77
Solution 5: The owner of car renting company
Amount of money/accident Probability
50 L.E 00-->29 0.30
100 L.E 30-->59 0.30
150 L.E 60-->84 0.25
200 L.E 85-->99 0.15
Number of accidents Probability
2 00-->04 0.05
3 05-->19 0.15
4 20-->59 0.40
5 60-->84 0.25
6 85-->99 0.15

The probability accidents occur is 30%  00 --> 29

The probability accidents don’t occur is 70%  30 --> 99
 Solution 5: The owner of car renting company
Use the following R.N:
92 44 99 15 97 21 47 80 28
1st Day: 87 13 33 42 84 27 64
RN: 92 --> NO ACCIDENT
59 33 84 00 10 50 51 09 31
2ND Day:
RN: 44 --> NO ACCIDENT 12 94 96 97 77
3RD Day:
RN: 99 --> NO ACCIDENT
4TH Day:
RN: 15 --> ACCIDENT
RN: 97 --> Number of accidents = 6 accidents.
 1th Accident:
RN: 21 --> Amount of money paid= 50 L.E
 2ND Accident:
RN: 47 --> Amount of money paid= 100 L.E
3rd Accident:
RN: 80 --> Amount of money paid= 150 L.E
4th Accident:
RN: 28 --> Amount of money paid = 50 L.E
5th Accident:
RN: 87 --> Amount of money paid = 200 L.E
6th Accident:
RN: 13 --> Amount of money paid= 50 L.E
Then the total paid in this day = 50 + 100 + 150 + 50 + 200 + 50 = 600 L.E
 Solution 5: The owner of car renting company
Use the following R.N:
92 44 99 15 97 21 47 80 28
87 13 33 42 84 27 64
5th Day: 59 33 84 00 10 50 51 09 31
RN: 33 --> NO ACCIDENT 12 94 96 97 77
6TH Day:
RN: 42 --> NO ACCIDENT
7th Day:
RN: 84 --> NO ACCIDENT
8th Day:
RN: 27 --> ACCIDENT.
RN: 64 --> Number of accidents = 5 accidents.
1st Accident:
RN: 59 --> Amount of money paid = 100 L.E
2nd Accident:
RN: 33 --> Amount of money paid = 100 L.E
3rd Accident:
RN: 84 --> Amount of money paid = 150 L.E
4th Accident:
RN: 00 --> Amount of money paid = 50 L.E
5th Accident:
RN: 10 --> Amount of money paid = 50 L.E
Then the total paid in this day = 100 + 100 + 150 + 50 + 50 = 450 L.E
 Solution 5: The owner of car renting company
Use the following R.N:
92 44 99 15 97 21 47 80 28
87 13 33 42 84 27 64
59 33 84 00 10 50 51 09 31
9TH Day: 12 94 96 97 77
RN: 50 --> NO ACCIDENT.
10TH Day:
RN: 51 --> NO ACCIDENT.
11TH Day:
RN: 09 --> ACCIDENT.
RN: 31 --> Number of accidents = 4 accidents
1st Accident:
RN: 12 --> Amount of money paid= 50 L.E
2nd Accident:
RN: 94 --> Amount of money paid= 200 L.E
3rd Accident:
RN: 96 --> Amount of money paid= 200 L.E
4th Accident:
RN: 97 --> Amount of money paid= 200 L.E
Then the total paid in this day = 50 + 200 + 200 + 200 = 650 L.E
12th Day:
RN: 77 --> NO ACCIDENT

Based on the above simulation :- The minimum money the owner must have to cover
the penalties occurred per day (The maximum paid money in all days) = 650 L.E
END