JOURNAL OF WORLD SCIENCE

https://jws.rivierapublishing.id/index.php/jws
Volume 2 No. 2 February 2023 P-ISSN: 2828-8726
E-ISSN: 2828-9307

QUANTITATIVE STUDY OF STARTUP VALUATION AND STRATEGY

POST-2022 WINTER

Muhamad Fajrin Rasyid1, Erman Sumirat2, Raden Aswin Rahadi3

Sekolah Bisnis dan Manajemen, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

ABSTRACT
In 2022, the market capitalization of some publicly traded technology companies is declining. This period is
commonly referred to as "winter" because it is more challenging for startups to get funding from investors.
The study seeks to understand the impact of winter 2022 on the valuation and strategy of privately funded
startups, focusing on five variables: sector, funding stage, relative market position, profitability, and founder's
contribution/strength. Quantitative analysis relies on survey responses from 180 startup founders in Indonesia
who specialize in six industries: retail/e-commerce, fintech, agriculture/fisheries, healthcare, logistics, and
education. Path Analysis is then applied to the data to determine the relationships between variables. This
research shows that profitability and founders' contributions/strengths impact startup valuation.
Furthermore, relative market position and profitability have an impact on startup strategy. Finally, a decrease
in valuation multiples for startups affects their strategy. This research can guide startup founders as they grow
their businesses, especially in relation to the five variables listed above. Future research may be conducted on
other variables, sectors, countries, or similar topics later/period.

Keywords: founder contribution, funding stages, market position, sector, startup, profitability.

Corresponding Author: Muhamad Fajrin Rasyid

E-mail: [email protected]

INTRODUCTION
In the preceding decade, the growth rate of the startup industry has been unprecedented.
Covid-19 has supported digitization and accelerated the growth of startups despite its impact on
multiple industries (Marlinah, 2020). In 2020, it was anticipated that e-commerce would be worth
$26.7 trillion (PBB, 2021). During this phase, many startups experienced rapid expansion. At the start
of 2022, there were over 1,000 unicorns (startups valued at $1 billion or more) with a total value of
over $3.3 trillion (Insights, 2022). Many of these companies went public, including Uber, Meta,
Alibaba, and Twitter.
The startup industry is also experiencing unprecedented growth in Indonesia. President Joko
Widodo of Indonesia anticipated that there would be 2,345 startups in Indonesia in September 2022.
Over the past two years, Indonesia's digital economy has grown from $40 billion in 2019 to $70
billion in 2021 (Bain et al., 2021). Moreover, according to research by Temasek, Bain, and Google, its
value will reach $330 billion by 2030. Retail/e-commerce, fintech (financial services and insurance),
agriculture and fisheries, media and entertainment, healthcare, transport, logistics, education,
digital advertising, and hospitality are among the most critical industries in Indonesia's startup scene
(Sharma & Tandon, 2020). Retail/e-commerce is the largest industry, with a market size of $75 billion
over the next five years, while fintech is the sector with the highest growth rate (32% CAGR).

DOI: 10.58344/jws.v2i2.226 300

 Muhamad Fajrin Rasyid, Erman Sumirat, Raden Aswin Rahadi
Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

In 2022, however, a significant shift occurred in the global startup landscape (Feld, 2020).
Nasdaq Composite Index, which consists primarily of companies in the information technology
industry, decreased by 34% between November 19, 2021, and October 7, 2022, falling from 16,057
to 10,652. Similar declines were experienced by Meta (-65%), Amazon Inc. (-38%), Netflix Inc. (-67%),
Alphabet Inc. (-38%), Uber (-54%), Snap Inc. (-87%), Alibaba (-54%), and Sea Ltd. (-84%). Figure 1
depicts that global private market venture capital also decreased during the first nine months of
2022 (Teare, 2022). Y Combinator, a prominent Silicon Valley incubator that has invested in over
3,500 companies, urged startup owners within its portfolios to prepare for the worst-case scenario
by reducing spending and extending their runways (Singh, 2022). Many, including Masayoshi Son,
founder and chief executive officer of Softbank Group, a prominent global venture capital firm,
consider this condition "winter" (Hope & Scheck, 2020). In this situation, it is difficult for a company
to raise capital from investors.

Figure 1. Global Venture Dollar Volume, Q1 2020 – Q3 2022

Source: (Teare, 2022)

The primary cause of the startup winter in 2022 was the deteriorating global economy.
Numerous nations experienced high inflation rates, which were detrimental to their economies
(Putra, 2022). In June 2022, for instance, the United States reached a new 40-year high of 9.1%
inflation. To combat inflation, several central banks raised their interest rates. In 2022, the Federal
Reserve raised interest rates seven times (until December). Before 2022, the rate was 0 to 0.25 per
cent, while in December 2022 was 4.25 to 4.5%. The high-interest rate shifted investor behaviour
away from high-risk investments, such as the technology industry, and toward low-risk instruments,
such as bank deposits. As a result, startup industry financing declines.
The startup industry in Indonesia is beginning to exhibit signs of winter (Suwarno & Silvianita,
2017). Bukalapak (BUKA.JK) and GoTo (GOTO.JK), two of the largest technology companies in
Indonesia, saw their share prices decrease after going public. The share price of Bukalapak was IDR
268 on December 16, 2022, a decrease of 68% compared to its IPO price of IDR 850 in August 2021.
In the interim, GoTo's share price fell by 72%, from IDR 338 to IDR 96, a significant decline compared
to April 2022, when the company went public. Even though the financing amount increases from the
previous year, $2.7 billion in the first half of 2022 compared to $1.3 billion in the first half of 2021,
many believe it will be challenging to secure funding (Bestari, 2023). Numerous investors harbour

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

scepticism regarding the viability and profitability of startups. Some are concerned about the
expansion's high fuel expenses.
Experts reiterate the difficulty of obtaining funding from investors. The chief executive officer
of a well-known Indonesian security company stated that investors would likely reduce a startup's
valuation if it lacked a clear strategy for achieving profitability (Sudarmanto et al., 2021). Bima Laga,
chairman of the Indonesia E-Commerce Association (idEA), stated that while profitable e-commerce
is thriving, unprofitable e-commerce must reduce expenses to attract investor support (Hoetoro &
Satria, 2020). Therefore, this paper aims to determine how winter 2022 affects privately funded
startups in Indonesia and what strategies startups should implement in this situation by focusing on
five variables: sector, funding stage, relative market position, profitability, and
contribution/strength. Because of the whole, startups need to consider these factors when
developing strategies and dealing with changing business conditions. In the face of changing seasons
or other business conditions, successful startups often have strategies that are adaptive, flexible,
and continuously follow market trends.

METHOD
In this paper, the author primarily employs quantitative methodology. The author conducts
surveys with 180 retail/e-commerce, fintech (financial services and insurance), agriculture,
healthcare, logistics, and education startup owners/founders/cofounders from Indonesia. The
questionnaire contains three primary components: (1) Startup categorization. In this section, the
questionnaire inquiries about hypotheses-related variables (funding stage, sector, relative market
position, profitability, and founder contribution/power). (2) Startup funding. In this section, the
questionnaire inquiries about funding-related variables, such as the ease of raising capital, the
multiples to employ, and the valuation multiples situation. (3) Startup strategy. In this section, the
questionnaire inquiries about variables associated with the startup's strategy, including overall
aggressiveness, personnel, and marketing. The author will then apply Path Analysis to the
questionnaire data to determine the relationship between variables.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Quantitative Research Analysis
Table 1 provides information on multiples of valuation. Most startups (56.7%) have reported
a decrease in valuation multiples (either drastically, moderately, or a little). The sector whose
valuation is affected the least from a sector perspective is "Others," which is outside the scope of
this study because it includes numerous other sectors such as HR, cloud, games, enterprise, chatbot,
and construction. In addition, logistics, healthcare, and agriculture/fisheries are impacted less. In the
funding stages column, the valuation multiple is impacted more severely in series B, series C, and
later funding rounds than in earlier rounds. Regarding the profitability variable, the valuation of a
startup tends to decrease the longer it remains profitable. Lastly, the valuation of a startup is
impacted more severely when the founder's contribution and influence are diminished.

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

Table 1. Breakdown of Startup Valuation Multiples Data

Similar
Decreased Decreased Decreased (neither
Variables Multiples Increased
drastically moderately a little decreased nor
increased)
Overall, View 15.6% 23.9% 17.2% 25.0% 18.3%
Agriculture/fisheries 16.7% 16.7% 25.0% 29.2% 12.5%
Education 21.1% 26.3% 15.8% 15.8% 21.1%
Fintech 13.9% 30.6% 22.2% 25.0% 8.3%
Sector Healthcare 26.3% 15.8% 15.8% 21.1% 21.1%
Logistics 5.3% 15.8% 15.8% 42.1% 21.1%
Others 0.0% 28.0% 16.0% 16.0% 40.0%
Retail/e-commerce 23.7% 26.3% 10.5% 26.3% 13.2%
Idea/angel 17.6% 29.4% 11.8% 23.5% 17.6%
Pre-seed/seed 11.6% 19.8% 16.3% 27.9% 24.4%
Funding
Series A 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 22.5% 17.5%
stages
Series B 15.0% 35.0% 25.0% 20.0% 5.0%
Series C or above 23.5% 35.3% 11.8% 23.5% 5.9%
Relative 1 (Strongly disagree) 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0%
market 2 20.0% 8.0% 16.0% 44.0% 12.0%
position 3 17.8% 26.7% 20.0% 17.8% 17.8%
– Gaining 4 16.4% 30.1% 13.7% 19.2% 20.5%
market
shares 5 (Strongly agree) 9.1% 21.2% 21.2% 33.3% 15.2%
Already Profitable 8.1% 24.3% 21.6% 21.6% 24.3%
Profitable in 2023 19.6% 21.7% 15.2% 21.7% 21.7%
Profitabil
Profitable in 2024 11.1% 19.4% 13.9% 44.4% 11.1%
ity
Profitable in 2025 20.0% 53.3% 13.3% 6.7% 6.7%
Other Answers 66.7% 0.0% 11.1% 22.2% 0.0%
Less than 20% 40.0% 30.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Founder
20 to less than 40% 22.2% 30.6% 25.0% 16.7% 5.6%
contribut
40 to less than 60% 7.9% 31.6% 13.2% 26.3% 21.1%
ion/pow
er 60 to less than 80% 11.6% 23.3% 18.6% 27.9% 18.6%
80% or more 15.1% 13.2% 15.1% 30.2% 26.4%
Source: Author’s Analysis

Table 2 details Startup Strategy information. In the column, a 5-point Likert scale is used, with
1 representing much less aggressive (defensive) responses and 5 representing much more aggressive
(offensive) responses (offensive). More than half of respondents (51.7%) reported being more
aggressive in 2022 compared to the previous year. The "Others" sector is the most aggressive from
a sector standpoint, followed by healthcare, education, logistics, agriculture/fisheries, and retail/e-
commerce. In contrast, fintech is the least aggressive industry. Next, the strategy for startups in
series B, C, and above is less aggressive than in earlier stages.
Regarding relative market position, there is a correlation between market share expansion
and aggression. When it comes to profitability, a startup's aggressiveness tends to decrease the
longer it is profitable. Lastly, regarding valuation, their strategies tend to be less aggressive the more
extensive the impact of the valuation multiple declines.

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

Table 2. Breakdown of Startup Strategy Data

Variables Strategy 1 2 3 4 5

Overall, View 6.1% 16.7% 25.6% 31.7% 20.0%

Agriculture/fisheries 8.3% 20.8% 25.0% 33.3% 12.5%
Education 10.5% 21.1% 5.3% 36.8% 26.3%
Fintech 2.8% 22.2% 38.9% 25.0% 11.1%
Sector Healthcare 0.0% 15.8% 31.6% 42.1% 10.5%
Logistics 10.5% 15.8% 26.3% 26.3% 21.1%
Others 0.0% 4.0% 24.0% 36.0% 36.0%
Retail/e-commerce 10.5% 15.8% 21.1% 28.9% 23.7%
Idea/angel 0.0% 11.8% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4%
Pre-seed/seed 3.5% 15.1% 19.8% 37.2% 24.4%
Funding stages Series A 12.5% 12.5% 25.0% 35.0% 15.0%
Series B 10.0% 15.0% 50.0% 15.0% 10.0%
Series C or above 5.9% 41.2% 23.5% 17.6% 11.8%
1 (Strongly disagree) 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
2 8.0% 24.0% 28.0% 32.0% 8.0%
Relative market position –
3 8.9% 15.6% 26.7% 28.9% 20.0%
Gaining market shares
4 5.5% 19.2% 20.5% 37.0% 17.8%
5 (Strongly agree) 0.0% 9.1% 33.3% 24.2% 33.3%
Already Profitable 2.7% 13.5% 17.6% 37.8% 28.4%
Profitable in 2023 8.7% 15.2% 26.1% 30.4% 19.6%
Profitability Profitable in 2024 5.6% 19.4% 36.1% 27.8% 11.1%
Profitable in 2025 0.0% 26.7% 40.0% 20.0% 13.3%
Other Answers 33.3% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0%
Less than 20% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 50.0% 10.0%
20 to less than 40% 5.6% 25.0% 25.0% 30.6% 13.9%
Founder contribution/power 40 to less than 60% 7.9% 18.4% 39.5% 23.7% 10.5%
60 to less than 80% 7.0% 9.3% 16.3% 32.6% 34.9%
80% or more 1.9% 17.0% 26.4% 34.0% 20.8%
Decreased drastically 17.9% 35.7% 17.9% 14.3% 14.3%
Decreased moderately 9.3% 16.3% 34.9% 27.9% 11.6%
Valuation Multiples Decreased a little 3.2% 12.9% 25.8% 38.7% 19.4%
Similar 2.2% 17.8% 31.1% 26.7% 22.2%
Increased 0.0% 3.0% 12.1% 51.5% 33.3%
Source: Author’s Analysis

Next, the author constructs a path diagram for the questionnaire data, whose results can be seen
in Figure 1.

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

Figure 1. Path Diagram Result

Source: Author’s Analysis
Meanwhile, the associated result of T statistics and P values for each of the structural paths
that correlate with the author's hypothesis can be seen in Table 3 and the subsequent explanation.
Table 3. Hypothesis Testing Result
Hypoth Sample Standard
Coefficie T statistics P
esis Path mean deviation Note
nt (B) (|B/STDEV|) values
(M) (STDEV)
H1 Sector →
-0.175 -0.173 0.195 0.900 0.368 Rejected
Valuation
H2 Stages →
0.062 0.067 0.075 0.827 0.408 Rejected
Valuation
H3 Market →
-0.036 -0.035 0.073 0.492 0.623 Rejected
Valuation
H4 Profitability →
0.236 0.236 0.067 3.508 0.000 Accepted
Valuation
H5 Power →
0.257 0.256 0.078 3.277 0.001 Accepted
Valuation
H6 Sector →
-0.002 -0.001 0.196 0.009 0.993 Rejected
Strategy
H7 Stages →
0.165 0.169 0.096 1.717 0.086 Rejected
Strategy
H8 Market →
0.250 0.254 0.071 3.529 0.000 Accepted
Strategy
H9 Profitability →
0.257 0.255 0.077 3.316 0.001 Accepted
Strategy
H10 Power →
0.100 0.100 0.077 1.298 0.194 Rejected
Strategy
H11 Valuation →
0.365 0.367 0.068 5.336 0.000 Accepted
Strategy
Source: Author’s Analysis

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

H1: Although generally, the privately funded startups' valuation multiples decrease, specific
sectors are less impacted
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H1 is 0.9, lower than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H1 is 0.368, higher than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H1 is rejected, meaning that the sector does not influence their valuation multiples.
H2: Startups' funding stages have a negative influence on their valuation multiples
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H2 is 0.827, lower than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H2 is 0.408, higher than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H2 is rejected, meaning that the funding stage does not influence their valuation multiples.
H3: Startups’ relative market position has a positive influence on their valuation multiples
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H3 is 0.492, lower than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H3 is 0.623, higher than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H3 is rejected, meaning that relative market position does not influence their valuation multiples.
H4: Profitability has a positive influence on their valuation multiples
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H4 is 3.508, higher than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H4 is 0.000, lower than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H4 is accepted, meaning that profitability positively influences their valuation multiples. The more
profitable startups are, the less likely their valuation multiples will decline. Because the less likely a
startup is to experience a decline in valuation as they grow and develop well in the market. In this
situation, investors tend to see startups as highly potential and high-value companies. Thus, such
startups are more likely to maintain or even increase valuation (Poland, 2014).
H5: Founder contribution/power positively influences their valuation multiples.
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H5 is 3.277, higher than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H5 is 0.001, lower than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H5 is accepted, meaning that founder contribution/power positively influences their valuation
multiples. This means that the higher the founder's contribution/power, the less likely their valuation
multiples will decline.
H6: Although generally, the strategies of startups will be less aggressive than before, specific
sectors are less impacted
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H6 is 0.009, lower than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H6 is 0.993, higher than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H6 is rejected, meaning that the sector does not influence its strategies.
H7: Startups' funding stages have a negative influence on their strategies
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H7 is 1.717, lower than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H7 is 0.086, higher than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H7 is rejected, meaning that the funding stage does not influence their strategies.
H8: Startups’ relative market position has a positive influence on their strategies
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H8 is 3.529, higher than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H8 is 0.000, lower than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H8 is accepted, meaning that relative market position positively influences their strategies. This
means that the better position the startups in the market (in other words, gaining market shares),
the more aggressive their strategies are.

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

H9: Profitability has a positive influence on their strategies

As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H9 is 3.316, higher than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H9 is 0.001, lower than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H9 is accepted, meaning that profitability positively influences their strategies. The more profitable
startups are, the more aggressive their strategies are.
H10: Founder contribution/power has a positive influence on their strategies
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H10 is 1.298, lower than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H10 is 0.194, higher than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H10 is rejected, meaning that the founder's contribution/power does not influence their strategies.
H11: The impact of the 2022 winter on privately funded startup valuation influences their
strategies
As seen in Table 3, the T statistics value of H11 is 5.336, higher than the threshold value of 1.96. In
addition, the P value of H11 is 0.000, lower than the significance value of 0.05. Therefore, hypothesis
H11 is accepted, meaning that the impact of the 2022 winter on privately funded startup valuation
influences their strategies. This means that the more significant the impact of the valuation multiple
declines, the less aggressive their strategies will be.
Proposed Solutions
Here the author proposes business solutions for each variable based on the analysis result.

Table 4. Proposed Solutions

Variable Valuation Strategy
Sector • Pivot/expand into sectors whose Have at least a similar level of
valuations are less impacted. aggressiveness with the sector's average
to maintain market share but maintain
• Be more vigilant about profitability
profitability.
and other variables analyzed if the
startups are in an industry with a
moderate/severely impacted
valuation.
Funding • For the early stages, continue raising • For the early stages, be more vigilant
stages funds from potential investors as of their profitability lest they run out
usual. of cash if they cannot raise funding.
• For later stages, be aware of other • If profitability can be kept in check for
variables analyzed before discussing later stages, be more aggressive to
them with potential investors. gain market share.
Relative Gain market share. If the market share Be more aggressive if the profitability is
market increases, startups have a better chance similar. If not possible (for example, need
position to increase profitability. to increase profitability), then at least
maintain the same level of
aggressiveness.
Profitability Immediately create a business/revenue Maintain a balance between profitability
model (if you still need to) and create a and aggressiveness (if startups put too
path to profitability (if not possible, to much emphasis on financial engineering,
achieve profit immediately). they may lose the big picture and make
them irrelevant in the long run, while on
the other hand, if they are too aggressive,
their profitability may be impacted).

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

Variable Valuation Strategy

Founder Manage shareholder dilution carefully Have specific terms with investors to
contribution/ and do not give equity too much to maintain founder contribution to
power investors or other parties. promote startup agility/flexibility.
Source: Author’s Analysis

CONCLUSION
Based on this study, winter also occurs in Indonesia, as more startups (56.7%) reported
declining valuation multiples. Two (profitability and founder contribution/power) of the five tested
variables (sector, funding stages, relative market position, profitability, and founder
contribution/power) are accepted as influencing valuation. It is accepted that the decline of startups'
valuation multiplies and influences their strategies. The relative market position and profitability are
believed to influence the strategies of startups. Regarding rejected variables, the author believes
there are still some insights that may be useful, namely, about the sector variable, "Others" sector
valuation multiples decline the least compared to other sectors. In contrast, fintech sector valuation
multiples decline the most. Regarding the funding stage variable, valuation multiples for earlier
stages decline less than those for later stages. The author advises startup founders to consider each
of the variables examined in this paper when developing their businesses. Startup founders may
wish to pivot or expand into sectors where valuations are less affected, such as logistics, healthcare,
and agriculture/fishing. These sectors are less affected because there are still numerous issues to be
resolved in each sector, and the growth potential is enormous. If, on the other hand, they choose to
remain in industries whose valuations are moderate/severely impacted, such as e-commerce and
fintech, they must be more vigilant regarding profitability, as these sectors are more impacted.
Founders of early-stage startups can continue to raise capital from potential investors as usual, as
this stage is less impacted. In contrast, founders of later-stage startups must analyze the
abovementioned variables before raising capital from potential investors, as this stage is more
impacted. Regarding their relative market position, startups should strive to increase their market
share, as this will increase their likelihood of increasing profitability. However, they must do so while
maintaining profitability. For instance, when conducting marketing campaigns, they can use data
science to determine which activity provides the highest ROI.
Regarding profitability, startup founders must immediately create a business model. As long
as it is remained competitive, they may consider increasing the take rate or margin. Startups must
also generate a profit or establish a path to profitability. This requires both an increase in revenue
and a decrease in expenses. Startups must examine their expense list and eliminate any non-
essential expenses that have a negligible impact on revenue. As employees are typically a startup's
most significant expense, if it is impossible to conduct layoffs, be more disciplined in evaluating their
performance and more selective when hiring future workers. Lastly, founders must manage
shareholder dilution carefully and not give away too much equity to investors and other parties
regarding their contribution and power. More respondents can be added to future research to
extend the current study. This will allow for a more excellent categorization of the variables. Since
the "Others" sector's valuation multiples decline the most diminutive relative to those of other
sectors, the author believes it will be interesting to conduct additional analysis on this data.
Additionally, future research can be conducted on additional variables and countries. The author

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Quantitative Study of Startup Valuation and Strategy Post 2022 Winter

suggests including the company's financial size (revenue or asset), the founder's background, the
number of founders, the location of the startup's headquarters, the number of employees, and the
composition of current investors as study variables. Future research can also be conducted from the
perspective of startup and former employees. Future work can also be accomplished by conducting
similar research in different time periods, such as the following year. This will allow us to determine
the duration of the winter situation.

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