1 beta = 0.

01
2 gamma = 0 . 1
3 epsilon = 0.1
4 kappa = 0 . 4
5 S0 = 50
6 E0 = 0
7 I0 = 1
8 R0 = 0
9
10 TF = 50
11
12 # D e f i n i r e l modelo
13 d e f SEIR (X, t ) :
14 S = X[ 0 ]
15 E = X[ 1 ]
16 I = X[ 2 ]
17 R = X[ 3 ]
18 dSdt = −b e t a ∗S∗ ( I+kappa ∗E)
19 dEdt = b e t a ∗S∗ ( I+kappa ∗E)−e p s i l o n ∗E
20 d I d t = e p s i l o n ∗E −gamma∗ I
21 dRdt = gamma∗ I
22 dXdt = [ dSdt , dEdt , dIdt , dRdt ]
23 r e t u r n dXdt
24 t = np . l i n s p a c e ( 0 ,TF, 5 0 0 )
25 X0 = [ S0 , E0 , I0 , R0 ]
26 SOL = o d e i n t ( SEIR , X0 , t ) # RESUELVE EL SISTEMA DE EDO
27 # PLOTEAR
28
29 p l t . f i g u r e ( f i g s i z e =(10 ,5) )
30
31 S = SOL [ : ,0]
32 E = SOL [ : ,1]
33 I = SOL [ : ,2]
34 R = SOL [ : ,3]
35
36 plt . p l o t ( t , S , c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l= ’ S u s c e p t i b l e s ’ )
37 plt . p l o t ( t , E , c o l o r= ’ o r a n g e ’ , l a b e l= ’ E x p u e s t o s ’ )
38 plt . p l o t ( t , I , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’ I n f e c t a d o s ’ )
39 plt . p l o t ( t , R, c o l o r= ’ g r e e n ’ , l a b e l= ’ Recuperados ’ )
40 plt . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SEIR ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
41 plt . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
42 plt . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
43 plt . legend ()
44 plt . grid ()

1 beta = 0.01
2 gamma = 0 . 1
3 S0 = 50
4 I0 = 1
5
6 TF = 50
7
8 # D e f i n i r e l modelo
9 d e f SIS (X, t ) :
10

1
11 S = X[ 0 ]
12 I = X[ 1 ]
13
14 dSdt = −b e t a ∗S∗ I+gamma∗ I
15 d I d t = b e t a ∗S∗ I−gamma∗ I
16
17 dXdt = [ dSdt , d I d t ]
18 r e t u r n dXdt
19
20 t = np . l i n s p a c e ( 0 ,TF, 5 0 0 )
21
22 X0 = [ S0 , I 0 ]
23
24 SOL = o d e i n t ( SIS , X0 , t ) # RESUELVE EL SISTEMA DE EDO
25
26 # PLOTEAR
27 p l t . f i g u r e ( f i g s i z e =(10 ,5) )
28
29 S = SOL [ : , 0 ]
30 I = SOL [ : , 1 ]
31
32 p l t . p l o t ( t , S , c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l= ’ S u s c e p t i b l e s ’ )
33 p l t . p l o t ( t , I , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’ I n f e c t a d o s ’ )
34
35 plt . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SIS ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
36 plt . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
37 plt . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
38 plt . legend ()
39 plt . grid ()

1 S0 = 100 # S u s c e p t i b l e
2 I0 = 1 # Infectada
3 R0 = 0 # R e t i r a d a / Recuperada
4
5 # Modelo SIR con d i n a m i c a s v i t a l e s
6 Lambda = 0 # [ i n d / d i a ] e n t r a d a de i n d i v i d u o s a l s i s t e m a
7 b e t a = 0 . 8 # Parametro de c o n t a g i o
8 gamma = 0 . 2 # t a s a de r e c u p e r a c i o n
9 d e l t a = 0 # t a s a de muerte d e b i d o a l a enfermedad
10 mu = 0 # t a s a de m o r t a l i d a d n a t u r a l
11
12 N = 50 # Numero de d i a s ( 2 meses )
13 t = r a n g e (N+1)
14 # t=np . l i n s p a c e ( 1 , 1 0 , 1 0 )
15 S = np . z e r o s ( l e n ( t ) )
16 I = np . z e r o s ( l e n ( t ) )
17 R = np . z e r o s ( l e n ( t ) )
18 # # Model
19 S [ 0 ] = S0
20 I [ 0 ] = I0
21 R [ 0 ] = R0
22 f o r n i n t [ 1 : ] : # n e s hoy e n t o n c e s n−1 e s a y e r
23 S [ n ] = S [ n−1] + Lambda − b e t a ∗S [ n−1] ∗ I [ n −1]/( S [ n−1]+ I [ n−1]+
R[ n −1]) − mu∗S [ n−1]
24 I [ n ] = I [ n−1] + b e t a ∗S [ n−1] ∗ I [ n −1]/( S [ n−1]+ I [ n−1]+R[ n −1]) −

2
 (mu+d e l t a+gamma) ∗ I [ n−1]
25 R[ n ] = R[ n−1] + gamma∗ I [ n−1] − mu∗R[ n−1]
26
27 plt . f i g u r e ( f i g s i z e =(10 ,5) )
28 plt . s c a t t e r ( t , S , c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l= ’ S u s c e p t i b l e s ’ )
29 plt . s c a t t e r ( t , I , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’ I n f e c t a d o s ’ )
30 plt . s c a t t e r ( t , R, c o l o r= ’ g r e e n ’ , l a b e l= ’ Recuperados ’ )
31 plt . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SIR d i s c r e t o ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
32 plt . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
33 plt . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
34 plt . legend ()
35 plt . grid ()

1 beta1 = 0.01
2 gamma1 = 0 . 1
3 b1 = 0
4 d1 = 0
5 S01 = 50
6 I01 = 1
7
8 R01 = 0
9 beta2 = 0.02
10 gamma2 = 0 . 1
11 b2 = 0
12 d2 = 0
13 S02 = 50
14 I02 = 1
15 R02 = 0
16 p11 = 24/24
17 p12 = 0/24
18 p21 = 1/24
19 p22 = 23/24
20 TF = 50
21 # MATRIZ DE TIEMPOS DE RESIDENCIA (PROPORCION)
22 P = [ [ p11 , p12 ] , [ p21 , p22 ] ]
23 # D e f i n i r e l modelo
24 d e f SIR12 (X, t ) :
25 S1 = X [ 0 ]
26 S2 = X [ 1 ]
27 I1 = X[ 2 ]
28 I2 = X[ 3 ]
29 R1 = X [ 4 ]
30 R2 = X [ 5 ]
31 dS1dt = b1−d1 ∗S1−b e t a 1 ∗ S1 ∗ p11 ∗ ( p11 ∗ I 1+p21 ∗ I 2 )−b e t a 2 ∗ S1 ∗ p12 ∗
( p12 ∗ I 1+p22 ∗ I 2 )
32 d I 1 d t = −d1 ∗ I 1+b e t a 1 ∗ S1 ∗ p11 ∗ ( p11 ∗ I 1+p21 ∗ I 2 )+b e t a 2 ∗ S1 ∗ p12 ∗ (
p12 ∗ I 1+p22 ∗ I 2 )−gamma1∗ I 1
33 dR1dt = −d1 ∗R1+gamma1∗ I 1
34 dS2dt = b2−d2 ∗S2−b e t a 1 ∗ S2 ∗ p21 ∗ ( p11 ∗ I 1+p21 ∗ I 2 )−b e t a 2 ∗ S2 ∗ p22 ∗
( p12 ∗ I 1+p22 ∗ I 2 )
35 d I 2 d t = −d2 ∗ I 2+b e t a 1 ∗ S2 ∗ p21 ∗ ( p11 ∗ I 1+p21 ∗ I 2 )+b e t a 2 ∗ S2 ∗ p22 ∗ (
p12 ∗ I 1+p22 ∗ I 2 )−gamma2∗ I 2
36 dR2dt = −d2 ∗R2+gamma2∗ I 2
37 dXdt = [ dS1dt , dS2dt , dI1dt , dI2dt , dR1dt , dR2dt ]
38 r e t u r n dXdt

3
39 t = np . l i n s p a c e ( 0 ,TF, 5 0 0 )
40 X0 = [ S01 , S02 , I01 , I02 , R01 , R02 ]
41 SOL12 = o d e i n t ( SIR12 , X0 , t ) # RESUELVE EL SISTEMA DE EDO
42
43 # PLOTEAR
44
45 #f i g , ax = p l t . s u b p l o t s ( 1 , 2 )
46 p l t . f i g u r e ( f i g s i z e =(10 ,3) )
47 S1 = SOL12 [ : , 0 ]
48 S2 = SOL12 [ : , 1 ]
49 I 1 = SOL12 [ : , 2 ]
50 I 2 = SOL12 [ : , 3 ]
51 R1 = SOL12 [ : , 4 ]
52 R2 = SOL12 [ : , 5 ]
53 p l t . subplot (1 , 2 , 1)
54 p l t . p l o t ( t , S1 , c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l= ’ S u s c e p t i b l e s ’)
55 p l t . p l o t ( t , I1 , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’ I n f e c t a d o s ’ )
56 p l t . p l o t ( t , R1 , c o l o r= ’ g r e e n ’ , l a b e l= ’ Recuperados ’)
57 p l t . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SIR m e t a p o b l a c i o n a l ( Zona 1 ) ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=”
bold ” )
58 p l t . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
59 p l t . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
60 plt . grid ()
61 p l t . subplot (1 , 2 , 2)
62 p l t . p l o t ( t , S2 , c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l= ’ S u s c e p t i b l e s ’)
63 p l t . p l o t ( t , I2 , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’ I n f e c t a d o s ’ )
64 p l t . p l o t ( t , R2 , c o l o r= ’ g r e e n ’ , l a b e l= ’ Recuperados ’)
65 p l t . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SIR m e t a p o b l a c i o n a l ( Zona 2 ) ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=”
bold ” )
66 p l t . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
67 p l t . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
68 plt . grid ()

1 im po rt m a t p l o t l i b . p y p l o t a s p l t
2 from s c i p y . i n t e g r a t e i mpo rt o d e i n t
3 im po rt numpy a s np
4
5 # MODELO SEAIR CON 2 METAPOBLACIONES
6
7 # Condiciones i n i c i a l e s
8
9 N01 = 50
10
11 J01 = 1
12 A01 = 0
13 E01 = 0 #PREGUNTA
14 R01 = 0
15 F01 = 0
16 S01 = N01−E01−J01−A01−R01−F01
17 N02 = 50
18 J02 = 1
19 A02 = 0
20 E02 = 0
21 R02 = 0
22 F02 = 0

4
23 S02 = N02−E02−J02−A02−R02−F02
24 # Parametros
25 b e t a = 0 . 5 #Tasa de c o n t a g i o ( p r o p o r c i o n )
26 d e l t a = 0 #F a c t o r de d i s m i n u c i o n de c o n t a g i o s con i n d i v i d u o s
asintomaticos
27 e p s i l o n = 1/5 #Tasa de i n c u b a c i o n ( 6 +− 1 en promedio , maximo
14)
28 sigma = 0 #P r o p o r c i o n de i n d i v i d u o s a s i n t o m a t i c o s
29 gamma = 1/14 #Tasa de r e c u p e r a c i o n
30 mu = 0 #Tasa de l e t a l i d a d (2 ,5% +− 0 ,5%)
31
32 TF = 100
33
34 #Parametros de c o n t r o l fantasma
35 a l p h a 1 f = 0 #C o n t r o l zona n o r t e
36 a l p h a 2 f = 0 #C o n t r o l zona s u r
37 p 1 1 f = 20/24
38 p 2 2 f = 20/24
39 p 1 2 f = 1−p 1 1 f
40 p 2 1 f = 1−p 2 2 f
41
42 d e f SEAIR(X, t , alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) :
43
44 S1 = X [ 0 ]
45 S2 = X [ 1 ]
46 E1 = X [ 2 ]
47 E2 = X [ 3 ]
48 A1 = X [ 4 ]
49 A2 = X [ 5 ]
50 J1 = X [ 6 ]
51 J2 = X [ 7 ]
52 R1 = X [ 8 ]
53 R2 = X [ 9 ]
54 F1 = X [ 1 0 ]
55 F2 = X [ 1 1 ]
56 p12 = 1−p11
57 p21 = 1−p22
58 V1 = d e l t a ∗A1+J1
59 V2 = d e l t a ∗A2+J2
60 N1 = S1 + E1 + A1 + J1 + R1 + F1
61 N2 = S2 + E2 + A2 + J2 + R2 + F2
62 dS1dt = −b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 1 ) ∗ S1 ∗ p11 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p11+V2∗ p21 ) / (N1∗ p11+N2
∗ p21 ) )−b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 2 ) ∗ S1 ∗ p12 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p12+V2∗ p22 ) / (N1∗ p12+N2∗ p22 ) )
63 dE1dt = b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 1 ) ∗ S1 ∗ p11 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p11+V2∗ p21 ) / (N1∗ p11+N2∗
p21 ) )+b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 2 ) ∗ S1 ∗ p12 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p12+V2∗ p22 ) / (N1∗ p12+N2∗ p22 ) )−
e p s i l o n ∗E1
64 dA1dt = sigma ∗ e p s i l o n ∗E1−gamma∗A1
65 dJ1dt = (1− sigma ) ∗ e p s i l o n ∗E1−gamma∗ J1−mu∗ J1
66 dR1dt = gamma∗A1+gamma∗ J1
67 dF1dt = mu∗ J1
68 dS2dt = −b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 1 ) ∗ S2 ∗ p21 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p11+V2∗ p21 ) / (N1∗ p11+N2
∗ p21 ) )−b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 2 ) ∗ S2 ∗ p22 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p12+V2∗ p22 ) / (N1∗ p12+N2∗ p22 ) )
69 dE2dt = b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 1 ) ∗ S2 ∗ p21 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p11+V2∗ p21 ) / (N1∗ p11+N2∗
p21 ) )+b e t a ∗(1− a l p h a 2 ) ∗ S2 ∗ p22 ∗ ( ( V1∗ p12+V2∗ p22 ) / (N1∗ p12+N2∗ p22 ) )−
e p s i l o n ∗E2
70 dA2dt = sigma ∗ e p s i l o n ∗E2−gamma∗A2
71 dJ2dt = (1− sigma ) ∗ e p s i l o n ∗E2−gamma∗ J2−mu∗ J2

5
72 dR2dt = gamma∗A2+gamma∗ J2
73 dF2dt = mu∗ J2
74 dXdt = [ dS1dt , dS2dt , dE1dt , dE2dt , dA1dt , dA2dt , dJ1dt ,
dJ2dt , dR1dt , dR2dt , dF1dt , dF2dt ]
75 r e t u r n dXdt
76
77 t = np . l i n s p a c e ( 0 ,TF, TF)
78
79 X0 = [ S01 , S02 , E01 , E02 , A01 , A02 , J01 , J02 , R01 , R02 , F01 ,
F02 ]
80
81 d e f SOL(X, alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) :
82
83 s o l = o d e i n t ( SEAIR , X, t , a r g s =( alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) ) #
RESUELVE EL SISTEMA DE EDO
84 return sol
85 d e f I 1 ( alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) :
86 I 1 = SOL(X0 , alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) [ : , 4 ] + SOL(X0 , alpha1 ,
alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) [ : , 6 ]
87 return I1
88
89 d e f I 2 ( alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) :
90 I 2 = SOL(X0 , alpha1 , alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) [ : , 5 ] + SOL(X0 , alpha1 ,
alpha2 , p11 , p22 ) [ : , 7 ]
91 return I2
92
93 #GRaFICA 1
94
95 f i g , ax = p l t . s u b p l o t s ( f i g s i z e = ( 1 0 , 1 0 ) )
96
97 #Zona 1
98 p l t . subplot (2 , 2 , 1)
99 p l t . a x i s ( [ 0 , TF, 0 , 3 0 ] )
100
101 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 1 ( a l p h a 1 f , a l p h a 2 f , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l i n e s t y l e=
’−− ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \ a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2=0\%$ ’ )
102
103 #p l t . p l o t ( t , I 1 ( 0 . 1 , 0 . 1 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r =’ b l a c k ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2 =10\%$ ’ )
104 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 1 ( 0 . 7 , 0 . 7 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ g r e e n ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2 =70\%$ ’ )
105 #p l t . p l o t ( t , I 1 ( 0 . 5 , 0 . 5 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r =’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2 =40\%$ ’ )
106 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 1 ( 0 . 7 , 0 . 2 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ brown ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1 =70\%;\ a l p h a 2 =20\%$ ’ )
107 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 1 ( 0 . 2 , 0 . 7 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ o r a n g e ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1 =20\%;\ a l p h a 2 =70\%$ ’ )
108
109 plt . t i t l e ( ’ Zona 1 ’ )
110 plt . x l a b e l ( ’ $t$ ( d i a s ) ’ )
111 plt . ylabel ( ’ Infectados ’ )
112 plt . legend ()
113 plt . grid ()
114
115 # Zona 2
116 p l t . subplot (2 , 2 , 2)
117 p l t . a x i s ( [ 0 , TF, 0 , 3 0 ] )

6
118
119 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 2 ( a l p h a 1 f , a l p h a 2 f , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l i n e s t y l e=
’−− ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \ a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2=0\%$ ’ )
120 #p l t . p l o t ( t , I 2 ( 0 . 1 , 0 . 1 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r =’ b l a c k ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2 =10\%$ ’ )
121 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 2 ( 0 . 7 , 0 . 7 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ g r e e n ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2 =70\%$ ’ )
122 #p l t . p l o t ( t , I 2 ( 0 . 4 , 0 . 4 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r =’ b l u e ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1=\a l p h a 2 =40\%$ ’ )
123 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 2 ( 0 . 7 , 0 . 2 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ brown ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1 =70\%;\ a l p h a 2 =20\%$ ’ )
124 p l t . p l o t ( t , I 2 ( 0 . 2 , 0 . 7 , p11f , p 2 2 f ) , c o l o r= ’ o r a n g e ’ , l a b e l=r ’ $ \
a l p h a 1 =20\%;\ a l p h a 2 =70\%$ ’ )
125
126 plt . t i t l e ( ’ Zona 2 ’ )
127 plt . x l a b e l ( ’ $t$ ( d i a s ) ’ )
128 plt . ylabel ( ’ Infectados ’ )
129 plt . legend ()
130 plt . grid ()
131
132 plt . tight layout ()
133 p l t . show ( )

1 im po rt numpy a s np
2 im po rt m a t p l o t l i b . p y p l o t a s p l t
3 im po rt x l s x w r i t e r
4 from s c i p y i mpo rt s p a r s e
5 from s c i p y . s p a r s e i mp ort c s r m a t r i x
6 from s c i p y . s p a r s e i mp ort l i l m a t r i x
7 from s c i p y . s p a r s e . l i n a l g im por t s p s o l v e
8 from s c i p y . s p a r s e i mp ort v s t a c k
9 im po rt time
10 im po rt math
11 N=99
12 U=20
13 # Modelo SIR con d i n a m i c a s v i t a l e s
14 b e t a = 0 . 9 /N # 0 . 0 1 Parametro de c o n t a g i o
15 gamma = 0 . 2 # t a s a de r e c u p e r a c i o n
16 d e f SIR ( i , r , a ) :
17 a l p h a=a /10
18 s=N−i −r
19 Sn=0
20 I n=0
21 Rn=0
22 Sn = s − b e t a ∗ s ∗(1− a l p h a ) ∗ i
23 I n = i + b e t a ∗ s ∗(1− a l p h a ) ∗ i − gamma∗ i
24 Rn = r + gamma∗ i
25 I n=math . c e i l ( I n )
26 Rn=i n t (Rn)
27 r e t u r n ( i n t ( Sn ) , i n t ( I n ) , i n t (Rn) )
28
29 def rec ( i , r , a) :
30 S = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 0 ] )
31 I = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 1 ] )
32 R = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 2 ] )

7
33 i f I >=0 and R>=0 and I+R+S!=N:
34 i f I<U:
35 r e t u r n ( 2 ∗ I ) ∗ ∗ 1.2+(N∗ a / 1 0 ) ∗ ∗ 1 . 2
36 else :
37 r e t u r n +1000
38 else :
39 r e t u r n +1000
40 d e f Rd( dn ) :
41 f = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 0 0 )
42 f o r i in range (100) :
43 f o r r in range (100) :
44 a = i n t ( dn [ i ∗100+ r ] )
45 f [ i ∗100+ r ] = r e c ( i , r , a )
46 return f
47 d e f f i l a ( a , i , r , L) :
48 f = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 0 0 )
49 I = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 1 ] )
50 R = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 2 ] )
51 f [ I ∗100+R]=L
52 return f
53 Id = s p a r s e . i d e n t i t y (10000)
54
55 d e f I LPd ( d , L) :
56 M = l i l m a t r i x ( Id )
57 f o r i in range (100) :
58 f o r r in range (100) :
59 a=i n t ( d [ i ∗100+ r ] )
60 I = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 1 ] )
61 R = i n t ( SIR ( i , r , a ) [ 2 ] )
62 i f i==I and r==R:
63 M[ i ∗100+ r , I ∗100+R] = 1−L
64 else :
65 M[ i ∗100+ r , I ∗100+R]=−L
66 return M
67
68 d e f i t e r P o l i t i c a (L ) :
69 d0=np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 0 0 )
70 c o n v e r g e n c i a 0 =10000
71 dn=np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 0 0 )
72 p a r a r=0
73 n=0
74
75 w h i l e ( p a r a r ==0) :
76 t 0 = time . time ( )
77 dn = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 0 0 )
78 I LPd0 = c s r m a t r i x ( I LPd ( d0 , L) )
79 R d0 = Rd( d0 )
80
81 V = s p s o l v e ( I LPd0 , R d0 )
82 f o r i in range (100) :
83 f o r r in range (100) :
84 v a l = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 )
85 f o r a in range (10) :
86 v a l [ a ]= r e c ( i , r , a ) + np . dot ( f i l a ( a , i , r , L
) , V)
87 vMin = np . min ( v a l )
88 i f v a l [ i n t ( d0 [ i ∗100+ r ] ) ]==vMin :

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89 dn [ i ∗100+ r ]= i n t ( d0 [ i ∗100+ r ] )
90 else :
91 dn [ i ∗100+ r ]= i n t ( np . argmin ( v a l ) )
92 c o n v e r g e n c i a = l e n ( np . n o n z e r o ( np . a r r a y ( d0 )−np . a r r a y
( dn ) ) [ 0 ] )
93 t f=time . time ( )
94 #p r i n t ( c o n v e r g e n c i a , t f −t 0 )
95
96 i f ( d0==dn ) . a l l ( ) o r c o n v e r g e n c i a >=c o n v e r g e n c i a 0 :
97 parar = 1
98
99 d0=dn
100 c o n v e r g e n c i a 0=c o n v e r g e n c i a
101 n+=1
102 p r i n t ( ’ numero de i t e r a c i o n e s ’ , n )
103 r e t u r n ( d0 )
104
105 d e f s i m u l a c i o n ( I0 , R0 , d ) :
106
107 S = np . z e r o s ( d i a s + 1)
108 I = np . z e r o s ( d i a s + 1)
109 R = np . z e r o s ( dias + 1)
110 A = np . zeros ( dias )
111
112 # # Model
113 S [ 0 ] = N−I0−R0
114 I [ 0 ] = I0
115 R [ 0 ] = R0
116
117 f o r n in range (1 , d i a s + 1) :
118 i=i n t ( I [ n −1])
119 r=i n t (R[ n −1])
120 a=i n t ( d [ i ∗100+ r ] )
121 A[ n−1]=a
122 ( Sn , In , Rn)=SIR ( i , r , a )
123 S [ n]= i n t ( Sn )
124 I [ n]= i n t ( I n )
125 R[ n]= i n t (Rn)
126
127 r e t u r n ( S , I , R,A)
128
129 d e f f i g S I S e s t p o l ( I0 , R0 ,D) :
130
131 ( S , I , R,A)=s i m u l a c i o n ( I0 , R0 ,D)
132 p l t . f i g u r e ( f i g s i z e =(15 ,5) )
133
134 p l t . subplot (1 , 2 , 1)
135 p l t . s c a t t e r ( t , I , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’ I n f e c t a d o s ’ )
136 p l t . s c a t t e r ( t , [U f o r i i n t ] , c o l o r= ’ p u r p l e ’ ,
l i n e s t y l e= ’−− ’ , l a b e l= ’ L i m i t e UCI ’ )
137 p l t . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SIR e s t o c a s t i c o o p t i m i z a d o con
a l g o r i t m o IP ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
138 p l t . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
139 p l t . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s I n f e c t a d o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
140 plt . legend ()
141 plt . grid ()
142

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143 p l t . subplot (1 , 2 , 2)
144 p l t . p l o t ( r a n g e ( 1 , d i a s +1) ,A, c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ )
145 p l t . t i t l e ( ’ D e c i s i o n e s a p a r t i r de l a p o l i t i c a a r r o j a d a
por e l a l g o r i t m o IP ’ , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
146 p l t . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
147 p l t . y l a b e l ( ” P o l i t i c a a p l i c a d a ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
148 plt . grid ()
149 return

1 im po rt m a t p l o t l i b . p y p l o t a s p l t
2 from s c i p y . i n t e g r a t e i mpo rt o d e i n t
3 im po rt numpy a s np
4 im po rt pandas a s pd
5 im po rt time
6
7 #Parametros
8 b e t a =0.3/N
9 gamma=1/7
10
11 N=100
12 TF=100
13 X0=[S0 , I 0 ]
14
15 t = np . l i n s p a c e ( 0 ,TF, TF)
16
17 d e f S I S d i s ( Ik , c o n t r o l ) :
18
19 Sk=N−I k
20 S=Sk−b e t a ∗Sk∗(1− c o n t r o l ) ∗ I k+gamma∗ I k
21 I=I k+b e t a ∗Sk∗(1− c o n t r o l ) ∗ Ik−gamma∗ I k
22 return S , I
23
24 def SIS est (S , control ) :
25
26 I=N−S
27 lambd = b e t a ∗(1− c o n t r o l ) ∗ I
28 i f r a c = 1 . 0 − np . exp(−lambd )
29 r f r a c = 1 . 0 − np . exp(−gamma)
30 i n f e c t i o n = np . random . b i n o m i a l ( S , i f r a c ) # Moving from S t o
I
31 r e c o v e r y = np . random . b i n o m i a l ( I , r f r a c ) # Moving from I t o S
32 r e t u r n [ i n t ( S−i n f e c t i o n+r e c o v e r y ) , i n t ( I+i n f e c t i o n −r e c o v e r y )
]
33 U=30
34
35 E s t a d o s = [ a f o r a i n r a n g e (N) ]
36
37 A = [0 ,0.2 ,0.4 ,0.6 ,0.8]
38
39 def trad ( a ) :
40
41 return i n t ( a∗ 10/2)
42
43 def recEsp (S , a ) :
44

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45 I=N−S
46 lambd = b e t a ∗(1−a ) ∗ I /N
47 i f r a c = 1 . 0 − np . exp(−lambd )
48 r f r a c = 1 . 0 − np . exp(−gamma)
49 i n f e c t i o n = S∗ i f r a c
50 recovery = I ∗ rfrac
51 S=S−i n f e c t i o n+r e c o v e r y
52 I=I+i n f e c t i o n −r e c o v e r y
53 i f S>=0 and I >=0:
54 i f I<U:
55 r e t u r n ( 2 ∗ I ) ∗ ∗ 1.2+(N∗ a ) ∗ ∗ 1 . 2
56 else :
57 r e t u r n 1000
58 else :
59 r e t u r n 5000
60 R = [ [ r e c E s p ( S , a ) f o r a i n A] f o r S i n E s t a d o s ]
61
62 d e f pcond ( j , S , a ) :
63
64 M = [ 0 f o r a in range (1000) ]
65 I=N−S
66 lambd = b e t a ∗(1−a ) ∗ I /N
67 i f r a c = 1 . 0 − np . exp(−lambd )
68 r f r a c = 1 . 0 − np . exp(−gamma)
69 f o r a in range (1000) :
70 i n f e c t i o n = np . random . b i n o m i a l ( S , i f r a c ) # Moving from S
to I
71 r e c o v e r y = np . random . b i n o m i a l ( I , r f r a c )
72 M[ a ]= i n t ( S−i n f e c t i o n+r e c o v e r y )
73 f r e c = M. count ( j )
74 r e t u r n f r e c /1000
75 PC = [ [ [ pcond ( j , S , a ) f o r a i n A] f o r S i n E s t a d o s ] f o r j i n
Estados ]
76
77 d e f Rd( dn ) :
78 f = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 )
79 f o r s in Estados :
80 a = i n t ( dn [ s ] )
81 f [ s ] = recEsp ( s , a )
82 return f
83
84 d e f I l P d ( l , dn ) :
85 M=np . z e r o s ( ( 1 0 0 , 1 0 0 ) )
86 f o r s in Estados :
87 a=dn [ s ]
88 f o r j in Estados :
89 M[ s ] [ j ]= l ∗PC [ j ] [ s ] [ t r a d ( a ) ]
90 I d=np . i d e n t i t y ( 1 0 0 )
91 r e t u r n Id−M
92 def f i l a (a , s , l ) :
93 f = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 )
94 f o r j in range (100) :
95 f [ j ]= l ∗PC [ j ] [ s ] [ t r a d ( a ) ]
96 return f
97
98 def i t e r P o l i t i c a ( l ) :
99 d0=np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 )

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100 c o n v e r g e n c i a 0 =10000
101 dn=np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 )
102 p a r a r=0
103 n=0
104 w h i l e ( p a r a r ==0) :
105
106 t 0 = time . time ( )
107 dn = np . z e r o s ( 1 0 0 )
108 I l P d 0 = I l P d ( l , d0 )
109 R d0 = Rd( d0 )
110
111 V = np . l i n a l g . s o l v e ( I l P d 0 , R d0 )
112
113 f o r s in range (100) :
114 v a l = np . z e r o s ( 5 )
115 f o r a i n A:
116
117 v a l [ t r a d ( a ) ]= r e c E s p ( s , a ) + np . dot ( f i l a ( a , s , l ) ,
V)
118 vMin = np . min ( v a l )
119 i f v a l [ t r a d ( d0 [ s ] ) ]==vMin :
120 dn [ s ]= d0 [ s ]
121 else :
122 dn [ s ]=np . argmin ( v a l ) /5
123 c o n v e r g e n c i a = l e n ( np . n o n z e r o ( np . a r r a y ( d0 )−np . a r r a y ( dn )
) [0])
124 t f=time . time ( )
125 #p r i n t ( c o n v e r g e n c i a , t f −t 0 )
126
127 i f ( d0==dn ) . a l l ( ) o r c o n v e r g e n c i a <5:
128 parar = 1
129
130 d0=dn
131 c o n v e r g e n c i a 0=c o n v e r g e n c i a
132 n+=1
133 #p r i n t ( ’ numero de i t e r a c i o n e s ’ , n )
134 r e t u r n ( d0 )
135 def f i g S I S e s t p o l 4 ( I0 ,D) :
136 S0=N−I 0
137 S=[0 f o r i i n r a n g e ( 1 0 0 ) ]
138 S [ 0 ] = S0
139 I =[0 f o r i i n r a n g e ( 1 0 0 ) ]
140 I [0]= I0
141 f o r d i n r a n g e ( l e n (D) −1) :
142 c o n t r o l=D[ d ]
143 s , i=S I S e s t ( S [ d ] , c o n t r o l )
144 S [ d+1]= s
145 I [ d+1]= i
146 plt . f i g u r e ( f i g s i z e =(15 ,5) )
147 plt . subplot (1 , 2 , 1)
148 plt . s c a t t e r ( [ i f o r i i n r a n g e (TF) ] , I , c o l o r= ’ r e d ’ , l a b e l= ’
Infectados ’ )
149 plt . s c a t t e r ( t , [U f o r i i n t ] , c o l o r= ’ p u r p l e ’ , l i n e s t y l e= ’−− ’ ,
l a b e l= ’ L i m i t e UCI ’ )
150 plt . t i t l e ( ’ Modelo SIR e s t o c a s t i c o o p t i m i z a d o con a l g o r i t m o IP ’ ,
f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
151 plt . x l a b e l ( ” tiempo ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )

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152 p l t . y l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s I n f e c t a d o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
153 plt . legend ()
154 plt . grid ()
155
156 p l t . subplot (1 , 2 , 2)
157 p l t . p l o t ( t , D, c o l o r= ’ b l u e ’ )
158 p l t . t i t l e ( ’ P o l i t i c a optima con metodo de I t e r a c i o n por P o l i t i c a ’ ,
f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
159 p l t . x l a b e l ( ” I n d i v i d u o s I n f e c t a d o s ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
160 p l t . y l a b e l ( ” Parametro de c o n t r o l ” , f o n t w e i g h t=” b o l d ” )
161 plt . grid ()
162
163 #p l t . s a v e f i g ( ’FIGURES/ o p t i / 1 0 . png ’ , b b o x i n c h e s =’ t i g h t ’ )
164 return

13