DECISION SCIENCE

Assignment Jun 2023

 Decision Science Assignment

2nd Semester - June 2023

Q1. Ans
Introduction
The Bayes theorem is a statistical idea that enables us to update our prior beliefs solely in light of
new data. It is a useful tool that is widely used in a variety of industries, including research, health,
engineering, and finance, to mention a few. The Bayes theorem may be used to solve an issue
related to periodontal disease and temper in this question.

Concept & Calculation

Given:

• 85% of people with bad mood have periodontal disease

• 29% of people who are healthy have periodontal disease

• In a certain community, only 10% population has a bad mood

To Find: The probability of having a bad mood in presence of periodontal disease in a community
with 10% population having a bad mood

Solution:

Let the presence of periodontal disease= A

Let the presence of bad mood= B

according to Baye's Theorem: P( )= P( ) * P(A)*

Wherein;

P( ) is the probability of having periodontal disease in presence of a bad mood= 0.85

P( ) is the probability of having a bad mood in presence of periodontal disease

P(A) is the probability of having the periodontal disease itself

 P(B) is the probability of having a bad mood= 0.1

To find P(A), we must use the formula as follows:

P(A) = P( ) * P(B) + P( ) * P(B')

Where,

P(not B) = 1 - P(B); which is the probability of not having a bad mood

P( ) is the probability of having periodontal disease without a bad mood

Substituting the values, we have:

P(A) = 0.85 * 0.10 + 0.29 * 0.90 = 0.344

Now we can find P(B|A):

P( ) =

= 0.247

Conclusion

Hence, the probability that someone with periodontal disease will have a bad mood is 0.247, or
about 25%

Q2. Ans

Introduction
Data may be examined using a technique known as linear regression, which considers the linear
relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

It is widely used to visually depict the strength of the link or correlation between various
parameters and the dispersion of data in order to understand the behaviour of the dependent
variable. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), another name for linear regression, just determines the
line that best fits the model's inputs.
Excel's linear regression modelling is made simpler with the Data Analysis ToolPak. The amount
and intensity of a correlation between one or more variables and the dependent variable can be
ascertained using the results of a regression analysis.

In a variety of financial applications, linear regression is utilized to establish correlations between

asset values and economic data.

Concept & Application

Given data for Regression Analysis:

No of No of post per
Followers day
439 2
340 1
315 4
444 5
377 2
456 5
495 2
304 2
401 5
305 5
338 4
348 2
402 1
395 5

Next, Excel's built-in regression analysis tool will be used to create a linear regression model of the
relationship between these two variables. Here are the steps to follow:

Select the two columns of data (followers and posts per day).

Go to the "Data" tab in Excel and click on "Data Analysis".

Choose "Regression" from the list of analysis tools and click "OK."

In the Regression dialog box, set the "Input Y Range" to the column of followers (column A) and the "Input
X Range" to the column of posts per day (column B). Make sure the "Labels" box is checked.

Click "OK" to run the regression analysis.

 The output will appear in a new sheet in your workbook.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.110590242
R Square 0.012230202
Adjusted R -
Square 0.077567053
Standard Error 63.02825921
Observations 13

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 541.0547129 541.055 0.136198 0.71909559
Residual 11 43698.17606 3972.56
Total 12 44239.23077

Standard Upper Lower Upper

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 365.0211268 40.39703934 9.03584 2.02E-06 276.107843 453.9344 276.10784 453.934411
-
2 4.063380282 11.01037698 0.36905 0.719096 -20.170296 28.29706 20.170296 28.2970566

Interpretation of the Results in EXCEL Table

Calculating the percentage of the dependent variable's variation that can be accounted for by the
independent variable yields the R2 value, sometimes referred to as the coefficient of determination,
which indicates how well the regression model fits the data. The R2 value is between 0 and 1, and
a higher number indicates a better match. A test's significance is shown by the p-value, sometimes
referred to as a probability value and ranging from 0 to 1. Since it demonstrates that the dependent
and independent variables are connected, a lower p-value is preferred to the R2 value.

The output of a regression model will produce a variety of numerical results. The coefficients (or
betas) show the connection between an independent variable and the dependent variable when all
other variables are held constant. For instance, if the coefficient is +0.12, it signifies that the
dependent variable changes by 0.12 in the same direction for every change of one point in the
independent variable. If it were -3.00, it would mean that a change of 1 point in the explanatory
variable results in a change in the dependent variable that is 3 times larger and in the opposite
direction.

Conclusion

The coefficient is +0.012, it means that for every change of post, the no. of followers changes by
0.12 in the same direction.

______________________________________________________________________________

Q3(a). Ans

Given:
Mean life of light bulbs (μ) = 120 days
Standard deviation (σ) = 20 days
Number of light bulbs (n) = 1000
Percentage of bulbs that should not expire before replacement = 90% = 0.9
We need to find the interval between replacements such that not more than 10% of the bulbs
expire before replacement.
We know that the distribution of the length of life of bulbs is normal. Hence, we can use the
standard normal distribution table to find the corresponding z-value for the given percentage.
Since we want to find the interval between replacements, we need to find the z-value for the 95th
percentile (100% - 10%) of the distribution.
From the standard normal distribution table, the z-value for the 95th percentile is approximately
1.645.
Now, we can use the formula for the standardized normal distribution to find the corresponding
value of x (length of life of bulbs) for the given z-value:
z = (x - μ) / σ
Substituting the given values, we get:
1.645 = (x - 120) / 20
Solving for x, we get:
x = 120 + 1.645 * 20
x = 153.9 days (approximately)
Conclusion:
Therefore, the interval between replacements should be around 154 days (rounded off to the
nearest whole number) to ensure that no more than 10% of the bulbs expire before replacement.

Q3(b)Ans
Given

Concept & Application

First, we need to calculate the total number of migrants for each gender:
Total Male migrants = 15,25,12,080
Total Female migrants = 31,96,23,089
Next, we can calculate the total weighted age for each gender by multiplying the number of
migrants in each age group by the midpoint of the age range.
98,34,738 x 2 = 1,96,69,476
Total weighted age for males = 4,69,73,58,038
Total weighted age for females = 12,09,53,81,385

Finally, we can divide the total weighted age for each gender by the total number of migrants in
that gender to get the average age:
Average age for males = 4,69,73,58,038 / 15,25,12,080 = 30.81 years
Average age for females = 12,09,53,81,385 / 31,96,23,089 = 37.83 years

Step-by-step explanation:
The average age of female migrants is higher than that of male migrants, indicating that there may
be different migration patterns or reasons for migration for the two genders. Additionally, the age
distribution for female migrants appears to be more evenly spread across the age groups, while
male migrants seem to be concentrated in the younger age groups. These observations could have
implications for policy makers and service providers who are responsible for addressing the needs
and concerns of migrant populations.