Lecture 4 Report

Lecture 4: Earthquakes – Predic on, Monitoring, Warning and Preven ve Evacua on
-Pragya
Earthquakes are one of the most unpredictable natural disasters which have claimed numerous lives whenever and wherever it has
occurred. It is very difficult to make accurate earthquake predic ons based on the scien fic knowledge only. An earthquake predic on
should be a short-term predic on based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. Predic on of earthquakes in Japan is based
on the monitoring, detec on and sta s cal analysis. Monitoring makes use of highly technical sensors or signal processing; sta s cal
analysis uses history and geographical data. Historically, the occurrence of earthquake in Japan was associated with the sigh ng of
ca ish or namazu. Claims were also there that ca ish can naturally predict earthquakes which was par ally proven by seismologists
in aquaria where ca ish demonstrated increased agita on several hours before the occurrence of earthquake. Seismologists also
focused on geological science to predict the earthquake. Study of history and geological science give us long-span predic on.
For monitoring the earthquake, earthquake survey observa on methods like space geodesy, geode c survey, sensors are used. Space
geodesy u lizes various satellites like geode c satellite for measurement of geodynamical phenomena such as crustal dynamics and
polar mo on; radar satellite for measurement of millimeter scale changes in earth’s surface following an earthquake; posi oning
satellite for measurement of displacement of global posi oning system satellite receiver sta ons when earthquake deforms the earth’s
crust and assesses the magnitude of an earthquake within seconds and issues alerts in under two minutes from the first detec on of
the ground movement. Likewise, geode c survey, magne c survey and gravity surveys (gravity changes before and a er the
earthquake and measurement of gravity anomaly changes near epicenter) are being widely used in Japan for monitoring and
measuring the earthquake. Sensors for measuring de level, ground mo on, current, magne sm, gravity, ground water level etc are
used for this. Global Naviga on Satellite system (GNSS), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry sta ons
are located at 1448 loca ons across Japan to realize the geode c reference frame of Japan and to monitor crustal deforma ons. For
example, during the 2011 earthquake, GPS captured the ground mo on and a horizontal displacement of 5.3m and a ver cal
displacement of 1.2m were observed. The sensors and data processing systems developed post 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan.
In order to detect the earliest sign of earthquakes, three types of seismographs have been installed all over Japan. Sensors and sta ons
are cooperated by na onal research ins tute, universi es and other ins tute. This system always offers free access data and updates
them in real- me.
(1) High Sensi vity seismographs can capture very small ground mo on that cannot be iden fied by human being. Even if
we monitor short term ground mo on, the data become huge. This data
effec vely contributes to determine epicenter and to es mate trend
of plate movement. High sensi vity seismograph network called “Hi-
net” is showing result in real me. The depth of inland earthquakes is
usually shallow over 15~20 km. In order to precisely determine the depth
of these earthquakes and es mate the maximum magnitude of possible
earthquakes, the distance between the observa on points should be
about 20 km (not placed at the vicinity of exis ng seismic sta ons). At
present, there are 1525 points monitored by high sensi vity seismograph.
(2) Broadband seismograph can capture long-period ground mo on of great earthquake and the earthquake occurred very
far place. This data can be used research of deep part structure of earth. Broadband seismograph network called “F- net”
is showing result in real me. There are 192 points monitored by broadband seismograph.
(3) Strong mo on seismograph can capture very strong ground mo on. This can be a source of geotechnical analysis and
seismic design for infrastructures.  Strong mo on seismograph network called “K-net” is showing result in real me.
2998 points are monitored by this seismograph. In addi on to this, there are 56 undersea base sta ons (both floa ng
type and fixed type) which are monitored by this seismograph.
(4) In addi on to this, probabilis c map of earthquake having intensity more than 5 in the next 30 years has been made. If
probability of a place to have an earthquake of a certain intensity (more than 5) is say p( E) 25% in 30 years, then the
return period i.e. the frequency of occurrence of that earthquake is 30/p( e) = 30/0.25 = 120 years.
A warning system called Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) has been developed a er the 1995 earthquake in which the technology was
combined with the telecommunica on system to forewarn the people about approaching earthquake. Focus, magnitude and seismic
intensity are quickly iden fied by the analysis of P and S-wave captured by mul ple sensors. The system was developed to minimize
earthquake damage and enable people to take shelter or evacuate dangerous areas before the arrival of its strong surface waves. EEW
can warn almost all Japan in 21sec from detec ng P-wave through mobile, TV, radio etc. It is used by railways to slow trains and by
factories to halt assembly lines before the earthquake hits. Japanese Shinkansen are equipped with a detec on and emergency braking
system and the power can be immediately cut off a er one or more than one of the seismographs installed by the operator can detect
waves. This can result in stopping of train in the next few seconds and can prevent derailment. In addi on to this, gas supply system
are also having automa c detec on system for shu ng off supply in case of strong earthquakes since then end of 1980s. EEW’s
accuracy is increasing day by day due to technical improvements like including Integrated Par cle Filter (IPF) method etc. Addi onally,
various precau ons like protec ng yourself first; keeping calm; switching off sources of fire; opening doors and windows to make way
for exit; keeping away from gate posts and walls; staying away from fires and tsunamis; ge ng the right informa on; ensuring safety
of family and neighbours and helping state authori es; working together on rescue and first aid and ensuring that electricity and gas
are off before evacua on; should be taken during and a er the occurrence of earthquake.

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Lecture 4: Earthquakes – Predic on, Monitoring, Warning and Preven ve Evacua on

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