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    The New Nuclear Era Council On Foreign Relations

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    Estela Costa
    The document discusses how the world may be entering a new nuclear era with more countries possessing nuclear weapons. Russia's threats in Ukraine and developments in other countries are increasing perceptions of the value of nuclear weapons and weakening the nuclear taboo. Efforts are needed to prevent further proliferation and reduce nuclear risks.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    The New Nuclear Era Council On Foreign Relations

    Uploaded by

    Estela Costa
    9 views6 pages
    The document discusses how the world may be entering a new nuclear era with more countries possessing nuclear weapons. Russia's threats in Ukraine and developments in other countries are increasing perceptions of the value of nuclear weapons and weakening the nuclear taboo. Efforts are needed to prevent further proliferation and reduce nuclear risks.

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    The New Nuclear Era Council on Foreign Relations

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    The document discusses how the world may be entering a new nuclear era with more countries possessing nuclear weapons. Russia's threats in Ukraine and developments in other countries are increasing perceptions of the value of nuclear weapons and weakening the nuclear taboo. Efforts are needed to prevent further proliferation and reduce nuclear risks.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    9 views6 pages

    The New Nuclear Era Council On Foreign Relations

    Uploaded by

    Estela Costa
    The document discusses how the world may be entering a new nuclear era with more countries possessing nuclear weapons. Russia's threats in Ukraine and developments in other countries are increasing perceptions of the value of nuclear weapons and weakening the nuclear taboo. Efforts are needed to prevent further proliferation and reduce nuclear risks.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 6

    The New Nuclear Era

    A soldier searches for bodies in a building struck by a Russian missile on October 13,
    2022 in Kupiansk, Kharkiv oblast, Ukraine. Carl Court/Getty Images

    The world is on the cusp of a new era where nuclear weapons are likely to play a
    bigger role.

    Article by Richard Haass


    Originally published at Project Syndicate
    October 19, 2022 1:31 pm (EST)

    Nuclear weapons have been a feature of international relations since August


    1945, when the United States dropped two of them on Japan to hasten the end of
    World War II. None has been used since then, and they arguably helped keep the
    Cold War cold by forcing a degree of caution on both sides of the confrontation
    between the US and the Soviet Union. Moreover, arms-control
    negotiations succeeded in limiting both countries’ nuclear arsenals and stopped
    or slowed nuclear proliferation. Today, only seven other countries (the United
    Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea) possess nuclear
    weapons.

    The question now is whether we are on the cusp of a new era of expanding
    nuclear arsenals, a more prominent role for them in geopolitics, and efforts by
    more countries to acquire them. Adding to the danger is the sense that
    the nuclear taboo against possessing or even using nuclear weapons is fading,
    owing to the passage of time and to the emergence of a new generation of so-
    called tactical nuclear weapons that imply less catastrophic results and therefore
    may seem more usable.

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    Russia’s war against Ukraine has made the arrival of this new era more likely in
    several ways. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991,
    Ukraine surrendered the nuclear weapons that remained on its territory in
    exchange for security assurances. Since then, Russia has invaded twice, an
    outcome that might persuade others that giving up nuclear weapons decreases a
    country’s security.

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    Then, in the wake of Russia’s second invasion earlier this year, the US ruled
    out direct military involvement on behalf of Ukraine owing to a concern that
    dispatching troops or establishing a no-fly zone could lead to a nuclear WWIII.
    China and others could see this as evidence that possessing a substantial nuclear
    arsenal can deter the US or at least impel it to act with greater restraint. Most
    recently, against the backdrop of significant battlefield setbacks, Russian
    President Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons in or near
    Ukraine in an effort to intimidate Ukrainians and force European governments
    and the US to rethink their support for the country.

    Developments elsewhere have also contributed to a rethinking of the value of


    nuclear weapons. Regimes and leaders in Iraq and Libya were ousted after
    abandoning their nuclear-weapons programs, which might lead others to
    consider the advantages of retaining or developing nuclear capabilities. North
    Korea, for its part, remains secure as it continues to expand its nuclear arsenal.
    :
    The world has likewise learned to live with Israeli, Indian, and Pakistani nuclear
    arsenals.

    The danger is that more nuclear weapons in more hands increases the odds that
    one or more of these unimaginably destructive weapons will be used. Deterrence
    and responsible custodianship cannot be assumed. Possession of nuclear weapons
    also has the potential to provide something of a shield that could make non-
    nuclear aggression more common. Even the belief that a country was moving to
    develop nuclear weapons could trigger military action by worried neighbors,
    possibly leading to a larger conflict.

    More From Our Experts

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    Given these risks, the most immediate task is to ensure that Putin’s nuclear
    saber-rattling is not rewarded, lest it set a dangerous precedent. This requires
    maintaining Western military and economic support for Ukraine, as well as
    regular reminders to Russia by the US and its allies that the consequences of any
    nuclear use, both for Russian military forces in Ukraine and for anyone involved
    in the decision, would far outweigh any perceived benefits.

    At the same time, and certainly before early 2026, when the New START Treaty
    :
    limiting the two great nuclear powers’ arsenals expires, the US should signal to
    Russia its readiness to discuss the next phase of nuclear arms control. The
    number and types of weapons systems to be limited needs to be on the agenda,
    as does the inclusion of China.

    More on:

    Nuclear Weapons

    The War in Ukraine

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    North Korea

    The US, together with its partners in the region, should also take steps –
    diplomatic or military if need be – to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear
    weapons or get so close that it could achieve nuclear breakout without enough
    warning for others to prevent it. Failing this, one or more of Iran’s neighbors may
    well decide they need nuclear weapons of their own. Such a scenario would take
    the Middle East, for three decades the world’s least stable region, in an even more
    dangerous direction.

    Reviving the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran reached with world powers (and from
    which the US withdrew in 2018) would help only temporarily, because the
    agreement features several so-called sunset clauses. That seems too high a price
    to pay, as it would allow Iran to get out from under significant sanctions,
    enabling the regime to pursue an even more aggressive foreign policy and
    provide it a lifeline just when domestic opposition to it is mounting.
    :
    Another set of concerns is found in Asia. Attempts to separate North Korea from
    its nuclear weapons are going nowhere. Full denuclearization should remain a
    goal, but in the meantime the US, South Korea, and Japan need to consider some
    form of arms-control proposal that would limit North Korea’s nuclear arsenal
    and missile systems in exchange for a reduction of sanctions.

    The US should also maintain its close alliance with both South Korea and Japan
    vis-à-vis not just North Korea, but also China. Failure to do so would most likely
    lead both countries to reconsider their renunciation of nuclear weapons.

    For a long time, many scholars and policymakers operated under the illusion
    that the nuclear problem was a relic of the Cold War. In fact, the world is moving
    closer to an era that could be defined even more sharply by nuclear weapons.
    Changing course is imperative, and time is running out.

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