Portfolio Management 135 resources should be allocated to each of the project types. Bubble diagrams can be used to ensure the balance of the portfolio, whereas the productivity index or expected commer- cial value can be used to serve the goal of maximizing the value of the portfolio. At the final portfolio adjustment stage, some of the project parameters are recalculated when changes are made to substantially change the portfolio from the original at the opti- mal portfolio selection stage. At the adjustment stage, itis also important to consider the balance of the projects in terms of their risk, size and short-term versus long-term orienta- tion (Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999). Oxmmm The technology portfolio planning process provides a systematic procedure for the strategic decision of finding a coordinated set of resource allocations among available technologies. Because of the large uncertainty involved in forecasting the business environment and technical development of emerging technologies, the scenario analysis has been embedded into the technology portfolio planning process. ‘The study of Chen et al. (2009) presents an example to illustrate the comprehensive process. The exemplar case is about the portfolio planning carried out for renewable energy in Taiwan. The study uses all seven steps of technology portfolio planning with a scenario: (1) specify the decision value and focus, (2) identify key decision factors and major driving forces, (3) identify the axes of uncertainty, (4) develop and select scenarios, (5) generate technology alternatives, (6) assess the technology alternatives under different scenarios and (7) develop a robust technology portfolio plan. 1 The values for the resource allocation decision of the renewable energy technol- ogy portfolio were derived from a survey of 65 society leaders in Taiwan, including: technology experts, business executives, government officials, major educators, prominent artists and community leaders. The values indicate a 50% weight on economic growth; a 25% weight on social equity, such as reduction in the income gap and increase of the care of elderly and disadvantaged populations; and a 25% weight on the quality of life, including environmental quality and balance between work and leisure. These values formed the basis for assessing the overall importance of the technology alternatives. A comprehensive list of alternative renewable energy technologies were collected by technical experts from research groups as well as from a broad literature search. The list includes 22 technologies from six major fields of renewable energy: photovoltaics, wind energy, bio-energy, solar heating, geothermal energy and ocean energy. 2. A Scenario Analysis Committee consisting of 14 experts in technology or other professional fields identified key decision factors and major driving forces in the future development of renewable energy technologies. Key decision factors are identified as follows: Political factors: government energy and industry policies and international environ- mental issues. (Continued)136 Part: Technology Management Tools Technology factors: breakthroughs in renewable energy technology and the criteria for technology assessment. Market factors: market demand of the renewable energy related industry, the devel- ‘opment of domestic industry and the requirements of the international market. Natural resource factors: availability of renewable energy in Taiwan and the supply costs of renewable energy. Major driving forces are grouped as follows: Policy driving forces: government industry policy and energy policy. Technology driving forces: position of renewable energy technology and the develop- ing cost of renewable energy. International driving forces: international oil price, greenhouse gas reduction require- ments, international eco-issues, the politics of foreign countries and the interna- tional demand for energy. 3 These major driving forces were then distributed into three axes of uncertainty: the situation of global warming, the breakthrough in renewable energy technol- ‘ogy and the government's renewable energy policy. 4 Eight scenarios are constructed from combining various extremes of the three axes of uncertainty. After the elimination of internally inconsistent or similar scenarios, the Scenario Analysis Committee selected three different scenarios. Due to space limitations, this book will only introduce one of these scenarios titled Scenario A: ‘Season in the Sun’. In this scenario, global temperature continues to climb resulting with high restrictions on the emission of carbon dioxide. However, the scenario is optimistic since it foresees significant progress in renewable energy technology as well as strong government support that will promote the renew- able energy industry. 5 The Scenario Analysis Committee use the portfolio analysis approach to assess the 22 candidate technologies from six major fields of renewable energy: photovolta- ics, wind energy, bio-energy, solar heating, geothermal energy and ocean energy. ‘The assessment is carried out in two dimensions: risk and importance (as a repre- sentation of the decision values). ‘The risk of a technology from Taiwan's perspective was assessed on the basis of five indicators: technology position, manufacture capability, industrial supply chain, market entry barriers and lead time for commercialization. Here, the first three indicators focus on the risk in the manufacturing and the last two indicators focus on the risk in the markets. The importance of a technology was assessed on the basis of the four indicators: market value in 2017, compound market growth rate from 2007 to 2017, cost ratio to traditional energy in 2017 and percentage reduction in energy cost from 2007 to 2017. ‘The first two indicators focus on the market value of the technology and the last two indicators focus on the cost competitiveness of the technology. 6 Based on these indicators and their respective measures, the assessment results and the technology portfolio planning implications for each scenario are summarized graphically in Figure 9.1. For the Scenario A: ‘Season in the Sun, thePortfolio Management 137 importance-risk assessment indicates that crystal Si (P1) and solar heating water boiler (S1) both enjoy high importance and low risk and are ideal for private busi- ness development. Thus, government might invest in these two technologies in order to reduce risk and increase importance. 7 The case study concludes that a robust renewable energy technology portfolio plan appears to be one of the following four choices: © Taiwan should promote private business investment in the mature technology of solar heating water boilers. © Dependent on the evolving development of future business environment, Taiwan should either promote private business investment or provide public investment or develop international cooperation in crystal Si, film of a-Si, film of CIGS, concentration photovoltaic and possibly organic dye technologies. © Taiwan should consider public investments to wind energy as well as selected bio-energy and ocean thermal energy developments. © Taiwan should continuously monitor other renewable energy technologies for possible technological breakthroughs. Source: Chen, T-¥,, Yu, O.S,, Hsu, G. J-¥, Hsu, F-M. and Sung, W-N. (2009) ‘Renewable Energy Technology Portfolio Planning with Scenario Analysis: A Case Study for Taiwan’ Energy Policy, 37(8), 2900-2906, OEE 1. What is portfolio management? 2 What are the advantages and disadvantages of portfolio management? 3 What is the process of portfolio management? 41. Project on a page The project manager must continually be aware of the status of the project. Is the proj- ect progressing to plan or is it behind schedule? Is the project likely to be over or under spent? Is the unit cost of the new product on target? Are project risks being managed proactively? Are the project objectives clear and agreed by all? Managing this complex data and providing meaningful reports can be a time consuming and laborious task. Furthermore, different project managers may report on these issues in different ways, depending on their experience and skills. Also known as a project dashboard, the ‘project on a page’ document has a dual use, providing an accessible summary of objectives and status to the project team, while also forming a simple, high-level project-status report for senior management. It provides a consistent way of presenting project status which can be used by all project managers, It is expected that the summary will be supported by appropriate docu- mentation to enable a more detailed analysis if required. (Continued)