HSTA 205 2016/2017

STA203 2023/2024

KWARA STATE UNIVERSITY, MALETE

COLLEGE OF PURE AND APPLIED SCIENCES

THE DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

HSTA 205:STATISTICS
STA203: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONSS
FOR I
PHYSICAL SCIENCES

HARMATTAN 2023/2024SEMESTER
2016/2017 HARMATTAN SESSION

LECTURE 1: PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY

REFERENCE TEXTS:
1. Probability with Applications in Engineering, Science, and Technology By M. A.
Carlton & J. L. Devore: Springer, 2014
2. Statistics for Utterly Confused BY Lloyd Jaisingh: Mc Graw-Hill, 2000
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SESSION
STA203: Statistics
HSTA for Physical
205: Probability Sciences
Distributions I

PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY

1.0 Probability
Probability is the sub-discipline of Mathematics that focusses on a systematic study of randomness
and uncertainty. In any situation in which one of a number of possible outcomes may occur, the theory
of probability provides methods for quantifying the chances, or likelihoods, associated with the
various outcomes.

Probability is the basis of inferential statistics because predictions are based on probability and
hypotheses are tested by using probability. Probability is used to quantify the likelihood or chance
that an outcome of a random experiment will occur.

The language of probability is constantly used in an informal manner in both written and spoken
contexts. Examples include such statements as “it is likely that the Tuyil Pharmaceutical Company
Average will increase by end of the year,” “There is a 50-50 chance that the incumbent will seek re-
election,” “There will probably be at least one section of that course offered next year,” “The odds
favour a quick settlement of the strike,” and “The chance of rain today is 30%.” The last statement
quantifies our feeling about the possibility of rain.

Probability, therefore, can also be viewed as a measure of the degree of believe we have in the

number from the interval 0,1 to the outcome (or a percentage from 0 through 100%). Higher values
occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. The likelihood of an outcome is quantified by assigning a

indicate that the outcome is more likely than lower numbers. A 0 indicates an outcome will not occur.
A probability of 1 indicates an outcome will occur with certainty.

In this section of the course, we introduce some elementary probability concepts, the basic approaches
to probability, show how the rules of probability can be applied to compute the chances of many
interesting events. The methodology of probability and probability distributions will be discussed in
details using practical real life application.

1.1 Random Experiments, Sample Space, Events and Combination of Events

In probability, an experiment refers to any action or activity whose outcome is subject to uncertainty.
Although the word experiment generally suggests a planned or carefully controlled laboratory testing
situation, we use it here in much wider sense to mean random/probability/Statistical experiment. The
experiment that may be of interest include tossing a coin once or several times, weighing a loaf of
bread, selecting a card or cards from a deck, measuring the commute time from home to work on a
particular morning, determining blood types from a group of individuals, determining which of two

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Statistics Distributions
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teams should start a game, deciding whether or not to carry along an umbrella from home due to
whether condition experiences etc. Because all these experiments involve outcomes with
uncertainties, they are called random experiments. Hence, random experiments are experiments
whose outcomes cannot be known or predicted in advance.

1.1.1 The sample space

The sample space of an experiment, denoted , is the set of all possible outcomes in the experiment.

Example 1.1:
The simplest experiment to which probability applies is one with two possible outcomes. One such

, , where N represents not defective, D represents

experiment consists of examining a single fuse to see whether it is defective. The sample space for
this experiment can be abbreviated as
defective and the curly retain their original meaning in set theory. Sample spaces are usually defined
based on objective of the analysis. It is said to be discrete if it consists of a finite or countably infinite
set of outcomes. It is continuous if it contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of real numbers.

, , and yet another would consist of observing the gender of

Another such experiment would involve tossing a thumbtack and noting whether it landed point up

, .
point down, with sample space
next child born in the local hospital with

Example 1.2
If we examine three fuses in succession and note the result of each examination, then an outcome for
the entire experiment is any sequence of Ns and Ds of length 3. So

, , , ,, , , ,
If we had tossed a thumbtack three times, the sample space would be obtained by replacing N by U
in above. A similar notational change would yield the sample space for the experiment in which
the gender of three new born children are observed.

Example 1.3
Two gas stations are located at a certain intersection. Each one has six gas pumps. Consider the
experimenter in which the number of pumps in use at a particular time of day is observed for each of

how many are in use in the second one. One possible outcome is 2,2 , another is 4,1 and yet
the stations. An experimental outcome specifies how many pumps are in use at the first station and

another is 1,4 . The 49 outcomes in are displayed in the accompanying table

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STA203:Statistics
Statistics
HSTA for
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Physical
205: Probability Sciences
Sciences
Distributions I

First Second Station

, , , , , , ,
Station 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

, , , , , , ,
0

, , , , , , ,
1

, , , , , , ,
2

, , , , , , ,
3

, , , , , , ,
4

, , , , , , ,
5
6

The sample space for an experiment in which a six-sided die is thrown twice results from deleting the
0 row and 0 column from the table, giving 36 outcomes.

Example 1.4
A reasonably large percentage of C++ programs written at a particular company compile on the first
run, but some do not. Suppose an experiment consists of selecting and compiling C++ programs at
this location until encountering a program that compiles on the first run. Denote a program that
compiles on the first run by S (for success) and one that doesn’t do so by F (for failure). Although it
may not be very likely, a possible outcome of this experiment is that the first 5 (or 10 or 20 or …) are

, , , , ⋯ , which contains an infinite number

Fs and the next one is S. That is, for any positive integer n we may have to examine n programs before
seeing the first S. The sample space is
of possible outcomes. The same abbreviated form of the sample space is appropriate for an
experiment in which, starting at a specified time, the gender of each new born infant is recorded until
the birth of a female is observed.

Example 1.5
Suppose a new couple plans to have three children. The sample space for gender pattern of the three
children can be obtained by letting B and G denote boy and girl, respectively. The sample space can
be obtained using tree diagram as in what follows.

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B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
Sample G BGG

Space B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG

Hence , , , , , , ,

1.1.2 Events
In the theory of probability, an event is any collection of outcomes contained in the sample space .

than one outcomes. When an experiment is performed, a particular event Ε is said to occur if the
An event is said to be simple if it consists of exactly one outcome and compound if it consists of more

resulting experimental outcome is contained in Ε. In general, exactly one simple event will occur,
but many compound events will occur simultaneously.

Example 1.6
Consider an experiment in which each of the three vehicles taking a particular freeway exit turns left
(L) or right (R) at the end of the off-ramp. The eight possible outcomes that comprises the sample

among which are Ε! """ and Ε# "$$ . Some compound events include
space are LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR, LRR, RLR, RRL, and RRR. Thus there are eight simple events,

% $"", "$", ""$ The event that exactly one of the three vehicles turns right

""", $"", "$", ""$ The event that at most one of the vehicles turns right

& """, $$$ The event that all the three vehicles turn in the same direction

Suppose that when the experiment is performed, the outcome is LLL. Then the simple event Ε! has
occurred and so also have the events B and C (but not A).

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Example 1.7 (Example 1.3 continued)

possible outcomes, so there 49 simple events; Ε! 0,0 , Ε' 0,1 , ⋯ , Ε() 6,6 .
When the number of pumps in use at each of two six-pump gas stations is observed, there are 49

Examples of compound events are

% 0,0 , 1,1 , 2,2 , 3,3 , 4,4 , 5,5 , 6,6 The event that the number of pumps in use is
the same for both stations

0,4 , 1,3 , 2,2 , 3,1 , 4,0 The event that total number of pumps in use is four

& 0,0 , 0,1 , 1,0 , 1,1 The event that at most one pump is in use at each station

Example 1.8

---, --., -.., -.-, .--, .-., ..-, ... constitute 8 simple events Ε! --- , Ε'
When a coin is tossed 3 times, the eight possible outcomes in the sample

-.- , ⋯ , Ε/ ... .

Examples of compound events are

% ∅ 12 The event that 4 heads ---- are obtained

---, -.., -.-, .--, .-., ..., -.. The event that at most one head - is obtained

& --., -.-, .--, -.., .-., ..-, ... The event that at least 1 tail . is obtained

1.1.3 Some Definitions

1.1.3.1 Outcome
An outcome is the result of a single attempt/trial of a random experiment. Each element or outcome
in the sample space of a probability experiment is called a sample space of a probability experiment
is called a sample point. Hence outcome and sample point can be used interchangeably.

1.1.3.2 Trial
A trial means an attempt in a probability/random experiment such as flipping a coin, rolling a die or
the likes in a number of times. When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: head or tail

six possible outcomes: 1,2,3,4,5, 12 6.

(Note: we exclude the possibility of a coin landing on its edge.). In the roll of a single die, there are

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1.1.3.3 Rounding Rule for Probabilities
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to two or three decimal places.
When probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is permissible to round the decimal to
the first non-zero digit after the point. For example 0.0000587 would be 0.00006.

1.1.3.4 Tree Diagram

In many counting and probability problems, a configuration called a tree diagram can be used to
represent pictorially all possibilities. It is a device consisting of line segments emanating from a
starting point and from the outcome point. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of random
experiments.

In probability theory, events are usually combined using the basic set operations: Union, Intersection
and Complements. These will be used to construct new events from given events.

1.1.4 Some Relations in Set Theory/ Combination of Events

An event is nothing but a set. Hence relationships and results from elementary set theory can be used
to study events. In probability theory, events are usually combined using the basic set operations:
Union, Intersection and Complements. These will be used to construct new events from given events.

1. The complement of an event Ε, denoted Ε 3 is the set of all outcomes in that are not contained
in Ε itself.
2. The intersection of two events Ε! and Ε' , denoted by Ε! ∩ Ε' and read “Ε! 567 Ε' ” is the
event consisting of all outcomes that are in both Ε! and Ε' .
3. The union of two events Ε! and Ε' , denoted Ε! ∪ Ε' and read “Ε! 12 Ε' ” is the event
consisting of all outcomes that are either in Ε! or in Ε' or in both Ε! and Ε' (so that the union
includes outcomes for which both Ε! and Ε' occur as well as outcomes for which exactly one
occurs). That is, all outcomes in at least one of the events.

Example 1.9: (Example 1.3 continued)

let % 0,1,2,3,4 , 3,4,5,6 , and & 1,3,5 . Then % ∪ 0,1,2,3,4,5,6 , %∪&

For the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a single six-pump gas station is observed,

0,1,2,3,4,5 , % ∩ 3,4 , % ∩ & 1,3 , %3

5,6 , % ∪ & 3
6.

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1.1.5 De Morgan’s Laws
It is useful to be aware of an important relationship between union, intersection, and complement
operators, first discovered by the nineteenth century British mathematician Augustus De Morgan. De

complement of an intersection is union of complements. Let Ε! 567 Ε' be two events in the sample
Morgan’s laws state that the complement of a union is an intersection of complements, and the

space of some experiments. Then

Ε! ∪ Ε' 3
Ε! 3 ∩ Ε' 3
Ε! ∩ Ε' Ε! 3 ∪ Ε' 3
1.
3
2.

Example 1.10
Consider rolling a die once with the following events

Ε! 9:96 6;<=92>, Ε' 177 6;<=92> , Ε? @92A9BC >D;529> E 1

Carefully justify De Morgan’s laws between events

Ε! and Ε'
Ε! and Ε?
a.

Ε' and Ε?
b.

Ε! , Ε' and Ε?
c.
d.

Solution

a. F 1,2,3,4,5,6 , Ε! 1,3,5 , Ε' 2,4,6 , Ε? 4

1. Ε! ∪ Ε' 3
Ε! ∩ Ε'3
3

Ε! ∪ Ε'
Ε! ∪ Ε' 3 ∅ ". -.
Ε!3
2,4,6 , Ε'
3
1,3,5
Ε! ∩ Ε' ∅
3 3
$. -.

Ε! ∪ Ε' 3 Ε!3 ∩ Ε'3

Hence

2. Ε! ∩ Ε' 3 Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3

Ε! ∩ Ε' ∅
Ε! ∩ Ε' 3
Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3
Hence Ε! ∩ Ε' 3 Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3

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b. Ε! and Ε?
1. Ε! ∪ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∩ Ε?3
Ε! 1,3,5 , Ε? 4
Ε! ∪ Ε? 1,3,4,5
Ε! ∪ Ε? 3
2,6 ". -.
Ε!
3
2,4,6 , Ε?
3
1,2,3,5,6
Ε! ∩ Ε'
3 3
2,6 $. -.

Ε! ∪ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∩ Ε?3
Hence

2. Ε! ∩ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∪ Ε?3
Ε! ∩ Ε? ∅
Ε! ∩ Ε? 3 ". -.
Ε! ∪ Ε?
3 3
1,2,3,4,5,6
Ε! ∪ Ε?
3 3
$. -.

Hence Ε! ∩ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∪ Ε?3

c. Ε' and Ε?
1. Ε' ∪ Ε? 3 Ε'3 ∩ Ε?3
Ε' 2,4,6 , Ε? 4
Ε' ∪ Ε ? 2,4,6
Ε' ∪ Ε ? 3
1,3,5 ". -.
Ε' ∩ Ε ?
3 3
1,3,5 $. -.

Ε' ∪ Ε? 3 Ε'3 ∩ Ε?3

Hence

2. Ε' ∩ Ε? 3 Ε'3 ∪ Ε?3

Ε' ∩ Ε ? 4
Ε' ∩ Ε ? 3
1,2,3,5,6 ". -.
Ε'
3
1,3,5 , Ε?
3
1,2,3,5,6
Ε' ∪ Ε ?
3 3
1,2,3,5,6 $. -.
Hence Ε' ∩ Ε? 3
Ε' ∪ Ε?
3 3

d. Ε! , Ε' and Ε?
1. Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∩ Ε'3 ∩ Ε?3
Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? 1,3,5 ∪ 2,4,6 ∪ 4
Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? 1,2,3,4,5,6

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Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? 3 ∅
Ε!3 ∩ Ε'3 ∩ Ε?3 2,4,6 ∩ 1,3,5 ∩ 1,2,3,5,6
Ε! ∩ Ε' ∩ Ε? ∅
3 3 3

Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∩ Ε'3 ∩ Ε?3

Hence

2. Ε! ∩ Ε' ∩ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3 ∪ Ε?3

Ε! ∩ Ε' ∩ Ε? 1,3,5 ∩ 2,4,6 ∩ 4
Ε! ∩ Ε' ∩ Ε? ∅
Ε! ∩ Ε' ∩ Ε? 3 ". -.

Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3 ∪ Ε?3 2,4,6 ∪ 1,3,5 ∪ 1,2,3,5,6

Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3 ∪ Ε?3 1,2,3,4,5,6
Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3 ∪ Ε?3 $. -.

Exercise 1.1
1. Ann and Bev have each applied for several jobs at a local University. Let A be event that Ann is
hired and let B be event that Bev is hired. Express in terms of A and B, the events
a. Ann is hired but not Bev;
b. At least one of them is hired;
c. Exactly one of them is hired;

2. Two voters, Al and Bill, are each choosing between one of three candidates-1, 2, and 3- who are
running for city council. An experimental outcome specifies both Al’s choice and Bill’s choice

a. List all elements of F

e.g., the pair (2,3).

b. List all outcomes in the event A that Al and Bill make the same choice
c. List all outcomes in the event B that neither of them votes for candidate 2.
3. Four Universities- 1,2,3, and 4- are participating in holiday basketball tournament. In the first
round, 1 will play 2 and 3 will play 4. Then the two winners will play for the championship, and
the two losers will also play. One possible outcome can be denoted by 1324: 1 beats 2 and 3 beats

a. List all outcomes in F

4 in first-round games, and 1 beats 3 and 2 beats 4.

b. Let A denote the event that 1 wins the tournament. List outcomes in A

d. What are the outcomes in % ∪ and in % ∩ ? What are the outcomes in A?

c. Let B denote the event that 2 gets into the championship game. List outcomes in B

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a. What are the 16 outcomes in F?

4. Each of a sample of four home mortgages is classified as fixed rate (F) or variable rate (V).

b. Which outcomes are in the event that exactly three of the selected mortgages are fixed
rate?
c. Which outcomes are in the event that all four mortgages are of the same type?
d. Which outcomes are in the event that at most one of the four is a variable rate mortgage?
e. What is the union of the events in parts (c) and (d)? And what is the intersection of the
two events?
f. What are the union and intersection of the two events in parts (b) and (c)?

Ε! G92A9BC >D;529>
5. Consider an experiment of rolling a dies once and the following events.

Ε' G2H<9 6;<=92>

Ε? ;ICH@I9> 1A 6

Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∩ Ε'3 ∩ Ε?3

Use the information to verify De Morgan’s laws

Ε! ∩ Ε' ∩ Ε? 3 Ε!3 ∪ Ε'3 ∪ Ε?3

i.
ii.

1.2 Approaches to Probability

Generally, the three approaches to probability include: Classical approach, Empirical approach and
Axiomatic Approach, respectively. These approaches are usually referred to as the basic interpretation
of probability.

1.2.1 Classical Probability

This is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely. It uses sample
spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. You do not actually have to

probability studied formally by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries. Let Ε be any event in
perform the experiment to determine that probability. It is so named because it was the first type of

the sample space F. The probability of any event Ε is defined as

;<=92 1A 1;CB1<9> H6 Ε
GJ Ε
.1C5I 6;<=92 1A 1;CB1<9> H6 CK9 >5<@I9 >@5B9 F

6 Ε
GJ Ε
6 F

Where 6 Ε is the number of favourable outcomes, and 6 F is the number of possible outcomes.

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Example 1.11
Consider throwing a die once. What is the probability of the event of a prime number?

Let Ε denote event of a prime number and F denote the sample space.
Solution

F , , , , , ,L F

Ε 2,3,5 , 6 Ε 3

6 Ε 3
GJ Ε 0.5
6 F 6

Example 1.12
If a new couple plan to have three children, find the probability that two of the three children are

a. Girls; and
b. Boys

Let B and G denote boys and girls, respectively. You can obtain the sample space F using a tree
Solution

diagram as in what follows.

B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
Sample G BGG

Space B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG

F MMM, MMN, MNM, MNN, NMM, NMN, NNM, NNN

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6 F 8

Let

Ε! P:96C 1A CQ1 RH2I>

Ε! , , , 6 Ε! 3

Ε' P:96C 1A CQ1 =1S>

Ε' , , , 6 Ε' 3

a. GJ Ε!
T UV ?
T F /

b. GJ Ε'
T UW ?
T F /

Example 1.13
Find the probability of getting a black 10 when drawing a card from a deck.

Solution

Let Ε denote event of a black 10 from a deck of playing cards and F sample space. Hence

6 F .1C5I 6;<=92 1A B527> H65 79BX 1A @I5SH6R B527>

6 F 52

Ε .K9 10 17 @579>, CK9 10 1A &I;=>

n Ε 2

GJ 5 =I5BX 10 GJ Ε

nΕ 2 1
GJ 5 =I5BX 10
6 F 52 26

Exercise 2.1
If an octagonal fair die is rolled, determine

a. The sample space;

b. Probability of obtaining an even number;

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c. Probability of obtaining a multiple of 3;
d. Probability of obtaining a prime number; and
e. State the appropriate probability approach involved.

1.2.2 Empirical or Relative Frequency Approach

Here, the probability of an event occurring is given by the fraction of time similar events happened
in the past. The difference between classical and empirical probability is the classical probability
assumes that certain outcomes are equally-likely (such as the outcomes when a die or a coin is rolled),
while empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes. In
empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000 times, observe the various frequencies,
and use these frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome. Hence

;<=92 1A CH<9> 9:96C> H6 CK9 @5>C 1BB;2

G21=5=HIHCS 1A 56 1;CB1<9
.1C5I 6;<=92 1A 1=>92:5CH16>

Example 1.14
A survey of a class of 30 KWASU graduates showed that 4 graduated with first Class Honours, 10
graduated with Second Class Hours and 16 graduate with Third Class Honours. What is the
probability that a graduate selected from this group graduate with First Class Honours.

Solution

;<=92 1A 1>C &I5>>9> 16 29B127>

GJ 1 >C &I5>> -161;2>
.1C5I 6;<=92 1A 79R299> 5Q52797

4
GJ 1 >C &I5>> -161;2>
30
2
GJ 1 >C &I5>> -161;2>
15

Example 1.15
Suppose that a researcher for the American Automobile Association (AAA) asked 50 people who
plan to travel over the Thanks giving holiday how they will get to their destinations. The results can
be categorized in frequency distribution as shown below.

14
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Method Frequency
Drive 41
Fly 6
Train or Bus 3
Total 50
Probabilities can be computed for various categories.

GJ 2H:H6R 41Z
50

GJ ISH6R 3Z
25

GJ .25H6 GJ .25H6 3Z
50
Example 1.16
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.

a. A person has type O blood

b. A person has type A or type O blood
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood
d. A person does not have type AB blood
Source: The American Red Cross

Solution

Blood Type Frequency

O 21
A 22
B 5
AB 2
Total 50

a. GJ .S@9 [ =I117 WV
\]

b. GJ .S@9 % 12 CS@9 =I117 ^ #_

WW # '`
\] #_
c. GJ 9HCK92 CS@9 % 612 CS@9 [ =I117 ^ #_
\ ' `
\] #_
d. GJ .S@9 % =I117 W
\]

15
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e. GJ 1C % =I117 1 a GJ .S@9 % =I117
2 24
GJ 1C % =I117 1a
50 25
Alternatively,

GJ 1C % =I117 GJ .S@9 [ ^ GJ .S@9 % +GJ .S@9 %

GJ 1C % =I117 ^ #_ ^ #_
'! '' #
#_

GJ 1C % =I117
'(
'#

Exercise 1.3
Suppose it is on records that out 25 fresh HND Top-Up/Conversion students who offered STA 205
in the 2015/2016 academic session at Kwara State University, 10 are Statistics majors, 8 are Electrical
Engineering majors while the remaining 7 were from Physics majors, respectively. What are the
chances of having STA 205 students in the 2016/2017 academic session from
a) Statistics majors
b) Physics majors
c) Electrical engineering majors
d) Hence or otherwise, what approach to probability is this?

1.3 Axiomatic Approach

This is an approach based on the three laws (axioms) of probability. It is such that probability
problems are solved using understanding of nature of probability as measure of uncertainty, in
deciding correctness of answers to such problems.

Let Ε denote an event in sample space F such that GJ Ε @21=5=HIHCS 1A 9:96C Ε, which gives a
1.3.1 The Axioms of Probability

precise measure of the chance that Ε will occur. To ensure that the probability assignments will be
consistent with our intuitive notions of probability, all assignment should satisfy the following axioms
(basic properties) of probability.

For any event Ε, 0 b GJ Ε b 1

Axiom 1:

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Interpretation: The probability of any event Ε is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between
and including 0 and 1. The simple implication of this is that probabilities cannot be negative or greater
than 1.

Axiom 2:

GJ F 1

Interpretation: The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Axiom 3:

If Ε! , Ε' , Ε? , ⋯ is an infinite collection of disjoint events, then

e

GJ Ε! ∪ Ε' ∪ Ε? ∪ ⋯ c GJ Εd
df!

Interpretation: This axiom formalizes the idea that if we wish the probability that at least one of a
number of events will occur and no two of the events can occur simultaneously, then the chance of at
least one occurring is the sum of the chances of the individual events.

You might wonder why the third axiom contains no reference to a finite collection of disjoint events.
It is because the corresponding property for a finite collection can be derived from our three axioms.
We want our axiom list to be as short as possible and not contain any property that can be derived
from others on the lists.

Proposition

GJ ∅ 0, where ∅ is the null event. This, in turn, implies that the property contained in axiom 3 is
valid for a finite collection of events.

Proof:

First consider the infinite collection of events Ε! ∅, Ε! ∅, Ε' ∅, Ε? ∅, ⋯. Since ∅ ∩ ∅ ∅,

then events in this collection are disjoint and ∪ Εd ∅. Axiom 3 then gives

GJ ∅ c GJ ∅

This can happen only if GJ ∅ 0.

17
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Now suppose that Ε! , Ε' , Ε? , ⋯ , Εg are disjoint events, and append to these the infinite collection
Εgh! ∅, Εgh' ∅, Εgh? ∅, ⋯ then the events Ε! , Ε' , Ε? , ⋯ , Εg , Εgh! , ⋯ are disjoint since Ε ∩
∅ ∅ for all events.

g e e g e

G ij Εd k G lj Εd m c GJ Εd c GJ Εd ^ c GJ Εd
df! df! df! df! dfgh!

g g e g

G ij Εd k c GJ Εd ^ c 0 c GJ Εd
df! df! dfgh! df!

Example 1.16
Consider tossing a thumbtack in the air. When it comes to rest on the ground, either its points will be

, . The axiom specify GJ 1, so the probability assignment will be completed by determining

up (the outcome U) or down (the outcome D). The sample space for this event is therefore

GJ and GJ . Since U and D are disjoint and their union is , the foregoing proposition implies
that

1 GJ GJ ^ GJ

It follows that GJ 1 a GJ . One possible assignment of probability if GJ 0.5, GJ

0.5, whereas another possible assignment is GJ 0.75, GJ 0.25. In fact, letting P represent
any fixed number between 0 and 1, GJ G, GJ 1 a G is an assignment consistent with the
axioms.

Example 1.17

within prescribed limit is found. The simple events are P! , P' , P? , P(

Consider testing batteries coming off an assembly line one by one until a battery having a voltage

, ⋯. Suppose the probability of any particular battery being satisfactory is 0.99. Then it can
be shown that the probability assignments GJ P! 0.99, GJ P! 0.01 0.99 , GJ P?
0.01 0.99 , ⋯ satisfies the axioms. In particular, because the Pd3p are disjoint and
'
P! ∪ P' ∪
P? ∪ ⋯. Axioms 2 and 3 require that

1 GJ GJ P! ^ GJ P' ^ GJ P? ^ ⋯

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0.99 1 ^ 0.01 ^ 0.01 '
^ 0.01 ?
^⋯

This can be verified using the formula for the sum of a geometric series:
5
5 ^ 52 ^ 52 ' ^ 52 ? ^ ⋯
1a2
However, another legitimate (according to the axioms) probability assignment of the same
“geometric” type is obtained by replacing 0.99 by another number P between 0 and 1 (and 0.01 by 1-
P).

1.4 Types of Events

Two events P! and P' are said to be independent if the occurrence of P!does not prevent that
1.4.1 Independent Events

of P'from happening. This simply means that both events can occur simultaneously.
Mathematically, P! and P' are independent if and only if
GJ P! 567 P' GJ P! q GJ P'

Events P! and P' are said to be dependent if the occurrence of P! prevents that of P' from
1.4.2 Dependent Events

happening or if they depend on each other. This implies that occurrence of one depends on

Mathematically, P! and P' are dependent if and only if

the other.

GJ P! 567 P' GJ P! q GJ P' |P!

GJ P! ∩ P' GJ P! q GJ P' |P!

Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if they are disjoint. P! and P' for instance are
1.4.3 Mutually Exclusive Events

said to be mutually exclusive if P! ∩ P' ∅.

Example 1.18
Consider rolling a die once with the following events

P! 9:96 6;<=92>

P! 2,4,6

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P' [77 6;<=92>

P' 1,3,5

P? G92A9BC >D;529 R295C92 1

P? 4

Events P! and P' are mutually exclusive because P! ∩ P' ∅ which implies that in a throw of a
single die, we cannot have events of an even and an odd number together. But events P! and P' are
independent because P! ∩ P? 4 . This means that an event can contain an outcome which is both
even and a perfect square greater than 1.

1.5 Interpretation of Probability

Examples 1.16 and 1.17 show that the axioms do not completely determine assignment of
probabilities to events. The axioms serve only to rule out assignments inconsistent with our intuitive
notions of probability. In the thumbtack tossing experiment of Example 1.16, two particular
assignments were suggested. The appropriate or correct assignment depends on the nature of the
thumbtack and also on one’s interpretation of probability.

The interpretation that is most often used and most easily understood is based on the notion of relative
frequencies. However, the following interpretations can be given to probability values:

1. When the probability of an event is close to zero (0), its occurrence is highly unlikely;
2. When the probability of an event is near 0.5, there is about 50-50 chance that the event
will occur; and
3. When the probability of an event is close to 1, the event is highly likely to occur.

Example 1.19
Consider an experiment of tossing a coin 3 time. What is the probability of

1. obtaining 4 heads:
2. obtaining at most 4 heads; and
3. obtain at least 1 tail

Solution
Since a single coin has two possible outcomes of H and T, the sample space for tossing 3 coins
together can be obtained using accompanying tree diagram.

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---, --., -.-, -.., .--, .-., ..-, ...

1. Let P! denote event of obtaining 4 heads. Since does not contain HHHH, P! ∅ and
GJ ∅ 0.
2. Let P' denote event of at most 4 heads. Hence,
P' -b4
P' ∅, 3-, 2-, 1-

H HHH
H
T HHT
H
H HTH
T
Sample T HTT

Space H THH
H
T THT
T
H TTH
T
T TTT

GJ P' GJ ∅ ^ GJ 3- ^ GJ 2- ^ GJ 1-

GJ P' ^/^/^/
_ ? ? ! !
/ `

3. Let P? denote event of at least 1 tail. Hence

P? .s1
P? 1., 2., 123.
GJ P? GJ 1. ^ GJ 2. ^ GJ 3.
3 3 1
GJ P? ^ ^
8 8 8
7
GJ P?
8

GJ P? 1 a GJ 61 .
Alternatively,

1
GJ P? 1a
8

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1
GJ P?
7

Note:
In probability theory, the word “or” simply means addition. It is synonymous to words such as
“either”, “neither” and “union operation in set theory”. On the other hand, the word “and” simply
means product (or multiplication) and it is synonymous to words like “both,” “together,” and
“intersection operation in set theory.” Hence

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! 12P' and GJ P! ∩ P' GJ P! 567P' .

2. Probability Properties

For any event P, GJ P 1 a GJ P 3 .

2.1 Complement Rule

Proof:

Since by definition of P 3 , P ∪ P 3 while P and P 3 are disjoint, 1 GJ GJ P ∪ P 3

GJ P ^ GJ P 3 , from which the desired result follows.

This property is surprisingly useful because there are many situations in which GJ P 3 is more easily
obtained by direct methods than is GJ P .

Example 2.1
Consider a system of five identical components connected in series, as illustrated below

1 2 3 4 5

Denote a component that fails by F and one that doesn’t fail by S (for success). Let P be event that
the system fails. For P to occur, at least one of the individual components must fail. Outcomes in P

different outcomes in P!
include SSFSS (1,2,4, and 5 all work, but 3 does not), FFSSS, and so on. There are, in fact, 31

However, P 3 , the event that the system works consists of the single outcome SSSSS. We will see that

then GJ P 3 0.9# 0.59. Thus, GJ P 1 a 0.59. So among a large number of such systems,
if 90% of all these components do not fail and different components fail independently of one another,

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roughly 41% will fail. In general, the complement rule is useful when the event of interest can be
expressed as “at least…” because the complement “less than…”may be easier to deal with (in some

calculating GJ P directly, think of determining GJ P 3 .

problems, “more than…” is easier to deal with than “at most…”). When you are having difficulty

2.2 Addition and Multiplication Rules of Probability

For any two independent events P! and P' ,

2.2.1 Addition Rule for Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' a GJ P! ∩ P'

For any three non-mutually exclusive events P! , P', and P?

GJ P! ∪ P' ∪ P? GJ P! ^ GJ P' a GJ P! ∩ P' ^ GJ P? a GJ P! ∩ P?

aGJ P! ∩ P? ^ GJ P! ∩ P' ∩ P?

GJ P! ∪ P' ∪ P? GJ P! ^ GJ P' ^ GJ P? a GJ P! ∩ P' a GJ P! ∩ P?

aGJ P! ∩ P? ^ GJ P! ∩ P' ∩ P?

Recall that P! ∪ P' P! ∪ P' ∪ P!3

Proof:

Since P! and P' ∪ P!3 are disjoint,

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' ∪ P!3

But P' P' ∩ P! ∪ P' ∪ P!3 [The union of that part of P' in P! and that part

of P' not in P! ]

Furthermore, P' ∩ P! and P' ∪ P!3 are disjoint, so that

GJ P' GJ P' ∩ P! ^ GJ P' ∩ P!3

Combining these results,

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' ∪ P!3

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' a GJ P! ∩ P'

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GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' a GJ P! ∩ P'

Example 2.2
In a certain suburb, 60% of all households get internet service from the local cable company, 80%
get television service from that company, and 50% get both services from the company. If a household
is randomly selected, what is the probability that it gets at least one of these two services from the
company, and what is probability that it gets exactly one of the services from the company?

Solution
With

P! R9C H6C9269C >92:HB9 A21< CK9 B5=I9 B1<@56S

P' R9C C9I9:H>H16 792:HB9 A21< CK9 B5=I9 B1<@56S

the given information implies that

GJ P! 0.6,

GJ P' 0.8,

GJ P! ∩ P' 0.5

The addition rule then applies to give

GJ R9C> 5C I95>C 169 1A CK9>9 CQ1 >92:HB9> A21< CK9 B1<@56S GJ P! ∪ P'

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' a GJ P! ∩ P'

GJ P! ∪ P' 0.6 ^ 0.8 a 0.5

GJ P! ∪ P' 0.9

The event that a household gets only television service from the company can be written as P!3 ∩ P' ,
i.e (not internet) and television.

0.9 GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P!3 ∩ P' 0.6 ^ GJ P!3 ∩ P'

GJ P!3 ∩ P' 0.3

Similarly,

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GJ P! ∩ P'3 GJ P! ∪ P' a GJ P' 0.1

GJ 9u5BCIS 169 GJ P! ∩ P'3 ^ GJ P!3 ∩ P' 0.1 ^ 0.3 0.4

Example 2.3
A mutual fund company offers its customers several funds: a money-market fund, three different
bond funds (short, immediate and long-term), two stock funds (moderate and high-risk) and a
balanced fund. Among customer who own shares in just one fund, the percentages of customers in
the different funds are as follows:

Money-market 20% High-risk Stock 18%

Short bond 15% Moderate-risk Stock 25%
Intermediate bond 10% Balanced 7%
Long bond 5%
A customer who owns shares in just one fund is randomly selected.

a. What is the probability that the selected individual own shares in the balanced fund?
b. What is the probability that the individual owns shares in a bond fund?
c. What is the probability that the selected individual does not own shares in a stock fund?

Solution

a. Let P! H67H:H7;5I 1Q6> >K529> H6 5 =5I56B97 A;67

P! 0.70
b. P! H67H:H7;5I 1Q6> >K529> H6 5 >K12C a =167 A;67
P' H67H:H7;5I 1Q6> >K529> H6 5 H6C92<97H5C9 a =167 A;67
P? H67H:H7;5I 1Q6> >K529> H6 5 I16R a =167 A;67

GJ 1Q6> >K529> H6 =167 A;67 GJ P! 12 P' 12 P?

Hence

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GJ P! ∪ P' ∪ P? GJ P! ^ GJ P' ^ GJ P? [Since ownerships of
shares in the bonds are

GJ P! ∪ P' ∪ P? 0.15 ^ 0.1 ^ 0.05

mutually exclusive]

GJ P! ∪ P' ∪ P? 0.30
c. Let P( 1Q6> >K529> H6 KHRK 2H>X >C1BX =167
P# 1Q6> >K529> H6 <17925C9 2H>X >C1BX =167
GJ 1Q6> >K529> H6 >C1BX =167 GJ P( ∪ P#
GJ 1Q6> >K529> H6 >C1BX =167 GJ P( ^ GJ P# [Since GJ P( ∩ P# 0]
GJ 1Q6> >K529> H6 >C1BX =167 0.18 ^ 0.25
GJ 1Q6> >K529> H6 >C1BX =167 0.43
GJ 61C 1Q6 >K529 H6 >C1BX A;67 1 a GJ [Q6 >K529> H6 >C1BX =167
GJ 61C 1Q6 >K529 H6 >C1BX A;67 1 a 0.43
GJ 61C 1Q6 >K529 H6 >C1BX A;67 0.57

Example 2.4
A computer consulting firm presently has bids out on three projects. Let

%d 5Q52797 @21v9BC H , for H 1,2,3, and suppose that GJ %! 0.22,

GJ %' 0.25, GJ %? 0.28, GJ %! ∩ %' 0.11, GJ %! ∩ %? 0.05,

GJ %' ∩ %? 0.07, GJ %! ∩ %' ∩ %? 0.01.

Express in words each of the following events, and compute the probability of each event:

%! ∪ %'
%!3 ∩ %3' -H6C: >9 9 12R563 > "5Q>
a.

%! ∪ %' ∪ %?
b.

%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %3?

c.

%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %?
d.

%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %?
e.
f.

a. %! ∪ %' the consulting firm is awarded at least one of the two projects
Solution

GJ %! ∪ %' GJ %! ^ GJ %' a GJ %! ∩ %'

GJ %! ∪ %' 0.22 ^ 0.25 a 0.11

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GJ %! ∪ %' 0.36
b. %! ∩ %' ?
3 3

%! ∪ %' 3 CK9 B16>;CH6R AH2< H> 5Q52797 69HCK92 1A CK9 2 @21v9BC>

Using De Morgan’s first law of complement of unions

%! ∪ %' 3 %!3 ∩ %3'

%! ∪ %' 3 1 a GJ %! ∪ %'
%! ∪ %' 3 1 a 0.36
%! ∪ %' 3 0.64

c. %! ∪ %' ∪ %? CK9 AH2< H> 5Q52797 5C I95>C 169 1A CK9 @2v9BC>

%! ∪ %' ∪ %? GJ %! ^ GJ %' ^ GJ %? a GJ %! ∩ %' a
GJ %! ∩ %? a GJ %' ∩ %? ^ GJ %! ∩ %' ∩ %?
%! ∪ %' ∪ %? 0.22 ^ 0.25 ^ 0.28 a 0.11 a 0.05 a 0.07 ^ 0.01
%! ∪ %' ∪ %? 0.53

d. %!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %3? CK9 AH2< H> 5Q52797 69HCK92 1A CK9 @21v9BC>
%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %3? 1 a GJ %! ∪ %' ∪ %? 3
%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %3? 1 a 0.53
%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %3? 0.47

e. %!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %? CK9 AH2< H> 5Q52797 16IS @21v9BC 3

%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %? GJ %? a GJ %! ∩ %? a GJ %' ∩ %? a GJ %! ∩ %' ∩ %?
%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %? 0.28 a 0.04 a 0.06 a 0.01
%!3 ∩ %3' ∩ %? 0.17

%!3 ∩ %3' ∪ %? 9HCK92 CK9S A5HI97 C1 R9C 1>C 2 12 CK9S 529 5Q52797 CK9 327
%!3 ∩ %3' ∪ %? %! ∪ %' 3 ∪ %?
f.

%!3 ∩ %3' ∪ %? %! ∪ %' 3 ∪ %? a %! ∪ %' 3 ∩ %?

%!3 ∩ %3' ∪ %? 0.64 ^ 0.28 a 0.12
%!3 ∩ %3' ∪ %? 0.75

Example 2.4
Consider randomly selecting a student at a certain university, and let A denote the event that the

GJ % 0.5, GJ 0.4 and GJ % ∩ 0.25.

selected individual has a Visa Card and B be the analogous event for a Master Card. Suppose that

27
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(i.e the probability of event % ∪ ).

a. Compute the probability that the selected individual has at least one of the two types of cards

b. What is the probability that the selected individual has either type of cards?
c. Describe, in terms of A and B, the event that the selected student has a Visa Card but not a
Master Card, and then calculate the probability of this event.

% >9I9BC97 H67H:H7;5I> K5> 5 yH>5 &527

Solution

>9I9BC97 H67H:H7;5I K5> 5 5>C92 &527

GJ % 0.5, GJ 0.4, GJ % ∩ 0.25

a. GJ % ∪ GJ % ^ GJ a GJ % ∩

A and B are independent since GJ % ∩ z∅

GJ % ∪ 0.5 ^ 0.4 a 0.25

GJ % ∪ 0.64

b. GJ % ∪ 3
1 a GJ % ∪ 3

GJ % ∪ 3
1 a 0.64
GJ % ∪ 3
0.36

c. P! >C;796C K5> 5 yH>5 &527 =;C 61C 5 5>C92 &527

P! %∩ 3

GJ P! GJ % ∪ a GJ 3

GJ P! 0.64 a 0.6
GJ P! 0.04

Example 2.5
The three most popular options on a certain type of new car are a built-in GPS (A), a Sunroof (B),
and an automatic transmission (C). If 40% of all purchases request A, 55% request B, 70% request

28
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C, 63% request A or B, 77% request A or C, 80% request B or C, and 85% request A or B or C.
Compute the probabilities of the following events.

a. The next purchaser will select none of the three options.

b. The next purchaser will request only an automatic transmission and neither of the two options.
c. The next purchaser will select exactly one of those three options.
[Hint: “A or B” is the event that at least one of the two options is requested; try drawing a
Venn diagram and labelling all regions]

Solution

% 5 =;HIC a H6 G%, GJ % 0.4

;6211A, GJ 0.55

& %;C1<5CHB C256><H>>H16, GJ & 0.7

GJ % ∪ 0.63

GJ % ∪ & 0.77

GJ ∪& 0.80

GJ % ∪ ∪& 0.85

a. GJ % ∪ ∪& 0.85

GJ % ∪ ∪& 3
1 a GJ % ∪ ∪&
GJ % ∪ ∪& 3
1 a 0.85
GJ % ∪ ∪& 3
0.15

b. GJ %3 ∩ 3
∩& GJ [6IS &
GJ %3 ∩ 3
∩& GJ % ∪ ∪ & a GJ % ∪
GJ %3 ∩ 3
∩& 0.85 a 0.63
GJ %3 ∩ 3
∩& 0.22

29
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c. GJ Pu5BCIS % GJ % ∪ ∪ & a GJ ∪&
GJ % ∩ 3 ∩ & 3 0.85 a 0.80
GJ % ∩ 3 ∩ & 3 0.05

GJ Pu5BCIS GJ % ∪ ∪ & a GJ % ∪ &

GJ % ∩ ∩ &
3 3
GJ % ∪ ∪ & a GJ % ∪ &
GJ % ∩ ∩ &
3 3
0.85 a 0.77
GJ % ∩ ∩ &
3 3
0.08

GJ Pu5BCIS 169 GJ % ∩ 3 ∩ & 3 ^ GJ %3 ∩ ∩ & 3 ^ GJ %3 ∩ ∩&

Hence
3

GJ Pu5BCIS 169 0.05 ^ 0.08 ^ 0.22

GJ Pu5BCIS 169 0.35

For any two mutually exclusive/disjoint events P! and P'

2.2.1 Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

GJ P! ∪ P' GJ P! ^ GJ P' H6B9 GJ P! ∩ P' 0

For any three such mutually exclusive events P! , P' and P?

GJ P! ∪ P' ∪ P? GJ P! ^ GJ P' ^ GJ P?

If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events, is it possible for GJ % 0.3, GJ 0.4 and GJ &
Example 2.6

0.5? Why or why not?

Solution

G2 % ∪ ∪ & G2 % ^ G2 ^ G2 &
No, they are not mutually exclusive because

G2 % ∪ ∪ & 0.3 ^ 0.4 ^ 0.5

G2 % ∪ ∪ & 1.2 E 1

If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events such that G % 0.3 a u , G 0.4 a u, and G &
Example 2.7

0.5 a 2u, find the value of x for which events A, B, and C can be truly mutually exclusive.

30
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G % 0.3 a u , G 0.4 a u, and G & 0.5 a 2u

Solution

GJ % ^ GJ ^ GJ & b 1
For A, B, and C to be truly mutually exclusive,

0.3 a u ^ 0.4 a u ^ 0.5 a 2u b 1

1.2 a 4u b 1
a4u b a0.2
u s 0.05
Example 2.8
On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of
a person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person having a driving accident
while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person driving while intoxicated or having a
driving accident?

Let P! 72H:H6R QKHI9 H6C1uHB5C97

Solution

P' K5:H6R 72H:H6R 5BBH796C

GJ P! 0.32, GJ P' 0.09 and GJ P! ∩ P' 0.06

GJ P! 12 P! GJ P! ^ GJ P' a GJ P! ∩ P'

GJ P! 12 P! 0.32 ^ 0.09 a 0.06

GJ P! 12 P! 0.35

Exercises 2.1
1. Suppose that 55% of all adults regularly consume Coffee, 45% regularly consume Soda, and 70%
regularly consume at least one of these two products.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult regularly consumes both Coffee and
Soda?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult doesn’t regularly consume either of
these two products?

2. Let A denote the event that the next request for assistance from a statistical software consultant

Suppose that GJ % 0.30 and GJ 0.50.

relates to the SPSS package, and let B be the event that the next request is for help with SAS.

31
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Why is it not the case that GJ % ^ GJ 1?
Calculate GJ %3
a.

Calculate GJ % ∪
b.

Calculate GJ %3 ∩ 3
c.
d.

3. A box contains six 40-W bulbs, five 60-W bulbs, and four 75-W bulbs. If bulbs are selected one
by one in random order, what is the probability that at least two bulbs must be selected to obtain
one that is rated 75-W?

4. A factory operates three different shifts. Over the last year, 200 accidents have occurred at the
factory. Some of these can be attributed at least in part to unsafe working conditions, whereas the
others are unrelated to working conditions. The accompanying table gives the percentages of
accidents falling in each type of accident-shift category.
Shift Unsafe Condition Unrelated Condition
Day 10% 35%
Swing 8% 20%
Night 5% 22%
Suppose one of the 200 accident reports is randomly selected from a file of reports, and the shifts
and type of accidents are determined.
a. What are the simple events?
b. What is the probability that the selected accident was attributed to unsafe conditions?
c. What is the probability that the selected accident did not occur on the day shift?

5. The computers of six faculty members in a certain department are to be replaced. Two of the
faculty members have selected laptop machines and the other four have chosen desktop machines.
Suppose that only two of the setups can be done on a particular day, and the two computers to be

are numbered 1,2, … ,6, then one outcome consists of computers 1 and 2, another consists of
set up are randomly selected from the six (implying 15 equally likely outcome; if the computers

computers 1 and 3, and so on).

a. What is the probability that both selected setups are for laptop computers?
b. What is the probability that both selected setups are desktop machines?
c. What is the probability that at least one selected setup is for a desktop computer?
d. What is the probability that at least one computer of each type is chosen for setup?

32
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6. A certain system can experience three different types of defects. Let %d H 1,2,3 denote the
event that the system has a defect of type H. Suppose that
GJ %! 0.12 GJ %' 0.07 GJ %? 0.05
GJ %! ∪ %' 0.13 GJ %! ∪ %? 0.14
GJ %' ∪ %? 0.10 GJ %! ∩ %' ∩ %? 0.01
a. What is the probability that the system does not have a type 1 defect?
b. What is the probability that the system has both type 1 and type 2 defects?
c. What is the probability that the system has both type 1 and type 2 defects but not a type 3
defect?
d. What is the probability that the system has at most two of these defects?

2.3 Conditional Probability

Often in probability theory, the probability assigned to various events depend on what is known about
the experimental situation when the assignment is made. Subsequent to the initial assignment, partial
information about or relevant to the outcome of the experiment may become available. Such
information may cause us to revise some of our probability assignments.

This section covers examination of how the information “an event P! has occurred” affects the
probability assigned to P' . For example, P! might refer to an individual having a particular disease

negative (P' 69R5CH:9 =I117 C9>C), then the probability of having the disease will change (it
in the presence of certain symptoms. If a blood test is performed on the individual and the result is

should decrease, but not usually to zero, since blood tests are not infallible).

However, when outcomes are equally likely, computation of conditional probabilities can be based
on intuition. When experiments are more complicated, though intuition may fail us, we want to have
a general definition of conditional probability that will yield intuitive answers in simple problems.

For any two events P! and P' with GJ P! E 0, the conditional probability of P' given that P! has
Definition:

occurred, denoted GJ P' |P! , is defined by

GJ P! ∩ P'
GJ P' |P!
GJ P!

Example 2.9

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Complex components are assembled in plant that uses two different assembly lines A and %3 . Line A
uses older equipment than A; so it is somewhat slower and less reliable. Suppose on a given day, line

, whereas %3 has produced 1 defective and 9 non-defective components. This

A has assembled 8 components, of which 2 have been identified as defective (B) and 6 as non-
3
defective
information is summarized in the accompanying table

Condition
3
Line
B

|3
A 2 6
1 9
Unaware of this information, the sales manager randomly selects 1 of those 18 components for a
demonstration. Prior to the demonstration

% 8
GJ "H69 % B1<@1696C >9I9BC97 GJ % 0.444
18
However, if the chosen component turns out to be defective, then the event B has occurred, so the
component must have been one of the 3 in the B column of the table.

Since these 3 components are equally likely among themselves, the probability the component was
selected from line A, given that event B has occurred, is

2Z GJ % ∩
GJ %, RH:96 2Z 18
3 3Z GJ
18
Example 2.9
Suppose that of all individuals buying a certain digital camera, 60% include an optional memory card

randomly selecting a buyer and let % <9<12S B527 @;2BK5>97

in their purchase, 40% include an extra battery, and 30% include both a card and battery. Consider

=5CC92S @;2BK5>97 . Then GJ % 0.60, GJ 0.40, and GJ =1CK @;2BK5>97 GJ % ∩

and

0.30. Given that the selected individual purchased an extra battery, the probability that an
optional card was also purchased is?

Solution

GJ % ∩ 0.30
GJ %| 0.75
GJ 0.40

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Interpretation: Of all those purchasing an extra battery, 75% purchased an optional memory card.

Similarly,

GJ % ∩ 0.30
GJ =5CC92S|<9<12S B527 GJ |% 0.50
GJ % 0.60

Note: GJ %| z GJ % and GJ |% z GJ . Notice also that GJ %| z GJ |% : These represent

two different probabilities computed using different pieces of information.

Example 2.10
A new magazine includes three columns entitled “Art” (A), “Books” (B), and “Cinema” (C). Reading
habits of a randomly selected reader with respect to these columns are

Read Regularly A B C |∩M |∩} M∩} |∩M∩}

Probability 0.14 0.23 0.37 0.08 0.09 0.13 0.05
Hence

GJ %| 0.348
~• €∩• _._/
~• • _.'?

GJ ‚% ∩ ∪& ƒ 0.04 ^ 0.05 ^ 0.03 0.12

GJ %| ∪ & 0.255
GJ ∪ & 0.47 0.47

GJ ‚% ∩ % ∪ ∪ & ƒ
GJ %|2957> 5C I95>C 169 GJ %|% ∪ ∪&
GJ % ∪ ∪ &

GJ % 0.14
0.286
GJ % ∪ ∪ & 0.49

GJ ‚ % ∪ ∩ &ƒ 0.04 ^ 0.05 ^ 0.08

GJ % ∪ |& 0.459
GJ & 0.37

2.3 Multiplication Rule

When two events P! 567 P' are independent, the probability of both occurring is
2.3.1 Multiplication Rule 1 [Independent Events]

GJ P! 567 P! GJ P! q GJ P'

35
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GJ P! ∩ P! GJ P! q P'

For three events P!, P' and P?,

GJ P! ∩ P! ∩ P? GJ P! q P' q GJ P?

When two events P! 567 P' are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
2.3.2 Multiplication Rule 2 [Dependent Events]

GJ P! ∩ P! GJ P! q GJ P' /P!

Example 2.11
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the
die.

-1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6
Solution

GJ 5 K957 567 5 4 GJ - q GJ 4 =1CK 9:96C> 529 H679@96796C

1 1
GJ 5 K957 567 5 4 q
2 6
1
GJ 5 K957 567 5 4
12

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Example 2.12
Four individuals have responded to a request by a blood bank for blood donations. None of them
has donated before, so their blood types are unknown. Suppose only type O+ is desired and only
one of the four actually has this type. If the potential donors are selected in random order for typing,
what is the probability that at least three individuals must be types to obtain the desired type?

Define H2>C CS@9 61C [ ^ and % 967 CS@9 61C [ ^ .

Since three of the four potential donors are not O+, GJ 3Z . Given that the first person types is
4
not O+, two of the three individuals left are not O+, and so GJ %| 2Z . The multiplication rule
3
now gives

GJ 5C I95>C CK299 H67H:H7;5I> 529 CS@97 GJ AH2>C CQ1 CS@97 529 61C [ ^

GJ % ∩

GJ %| . GJ

2 3 6
. 0.5
3 4 12
The multiplication rule is most useful when the experiment consists of several stages in succession.

second, so that GJ %| - conditioning on what occurs first- will often be known. The rule is easily
The conditioning event B then describes the outcome of the first stage and A the outcome of the

extended to experiments involving more than two stages. For example

GJ %! ∩ %' ∩ %? GJ %? |%! ∩ %' ∙ GJ %! ∩ %'

GJ %! ∩ %' ∩ %? GJ %? |%! ∩ %' ∙ GJ %' |%! . GJ %!

Where %! occurs first, followed by %' , and finally %? .

Example 2.13
For the blood typing experiment of example 2.12,

GJ CKH27 CS@9 H> [ ^ GJ CKH27 H>|AH2>C H>63 C ∩ >9B167 H>6′C ∙

GJ >9B167 H>6′C|AH2>C H>63 C ∙ GJ AH2>C H>63 C

37
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GJ % GJ %? |%!3 ∩ %3' ∙ GJ %3' |%3 ∙ GJ %3

1 2 3 1
∙ ∙ 0.25
2 3 4 4
Example 2.14
A chain of electronics stores sells three different brands of DVD players. Of its DVD player sales,
50% are brand 1 (the least expensive), 30% are brand 2, and 20% are brand 3. Each manufacturer
offers a 1-year warranty on parts and labor. It is known that 25% of brand is DVD players require
warranty repair work, whereas the corresponding percentages for brands 2 and 3 are 20% and 10%,
respectively.

1. What is the probability that a randomly selected purchaser has bought a brand 1 DVD player
that will need repair while under warranty?
2. What is the probability that a randomly selected purchaser has a DVD player that will need
repair while under warranty?
3. If a customer returns to the store with a DVD player that needs warranty repair work, what
is the probability that it is a brand 1 DVD player? A brand 2 DVD player? A brand 3 DVD
player?

Solution

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Let %d =2567 H H> @;2BK5>97 for H 1,2, 567 3. Then GJ %! 0.50, GJ %' 0.30,
GJ %? 0.20

Once a brand of DVD player is selected, the second stage involves observing whether the
selected DVD player needs warranty repair.

6997 29@5H2 , 3
719>6 3 C6997 29@5H2 .

GJ |%! 0.25, GJ |%' 0.20, GJ |%? 0.10. Hence using the tree diagram and the
multiplication rule

1. GJ %! ∩ GJ |%! ∙ GJ %! 0.125
2. GJ GJ =2567 1 567 29@5H2 12 =2567 2 567 295@H2 12 =2567 3 567 29@5H2
GJ GJ %! ∩ ^ GJ %' ∩ ^ GJ %? ∩
GJ 0.125 ^ 0.060 ^ 0.020 0.205
3. GJ %! | 0.61
~• €V ∩• _.!'#
~• • _.'_#
GJ %' ∩ 0.060
GJ %' | 0.29
GJ 0.205

GJ %? | 1 a GJ %! | a GJ %' | 0.10
Hence

Example 2.15
A man owns a house in town and a cottage in the country. In any one year the probability of the house
being burgled is 0.01 and the probability of the cottage being burgled is 0.05. In any one year what is
the probability that:
(a) both will be burgled? (b) one or the other (but not both) will be burgled?

Let - K1;>9 H> =;2RI97 & B1CC5R9 H> =;2RI97

Solution:

a. G - ∩ & G - ∙G &
0.01 q 0.05
[Since events are independent]

0.0005
b. G‚[69 12 CK9 1CK92 =;C 61C =1CK ƒ G [6IS K1;>9 H> =;2RI97 12
[6IS B1CC5R9 H> =;2RI97
G - ∩ & 3 ∪ G -3 ∩ &
G - ∩ & 3 ^ G -3 ∩ &

39
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‚0.01 q 1 a 0.05 ƒ ^
‚ 1 a 0.01 q 0.05ƒ
0.01 q 0.95 ^ 0.99 q 0.05
0.059

Example 2.16: [Homeowner’s and Automobile Insurance]

World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance
(H) with the company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company.
If a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and
automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance Company.

GJ - 567 % GJ - q GJ %/- 0.53 q 0.27 0.1431

Solution

Example 2.17
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are
selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first fuse.
What is the probability that both fuses are defective?

Solution
Total number of fuses in the box = 20
Let P! = H2>C 79A9BCH:9 A;>9
P' = 9B167 79A9BCH:9 A;>9>
5
GJ P! =
20
4
GJ P' =
19
GJ P! ∩ P' = GJ P! ∩ GJ P' /P!
# (
= '_ q !)
!
= !)
= 0.05

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PREPARED BY DR. K. O. OLOREDE (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
Example 2.18: [Winning a Door Prize]
At a gathering consisting of 10 men and 20 women, two door prizes are awarded. The winning
ticket is not replaced. Find the probability that
a. both prizes are won by men.
b. both prizes are won by women
c. a man wins one and a woman wins one.
d. Would you consider this event in a, b, and c likely or unlikely to occur?

Solution
96, 6 10
¨ ¨1<96, 6 ¨ 20
!_ '_
6 2, GJ ?_
, GJ ¨ ?_
a. GJ =1CK 96 GJ q GJ /
!_ )
q
?_ ')
?
')
0.10 [The event is unlikely]
b. GJ =1CK ¨1<96 GJ ¨ q GJ ¨/¨
'_ !)
q
?_ ')
?/
/`
0.44 [The event is more likely]
c. GJ % <56 567 5 Q1<56 QH6> 169 95BK GJ ∩ ¨/ ^ GJ ¨ ∩ /¨
!_ '_ '_ !_
©?_ q ')ª ^ ©?_ q ')ª
'__
/`_
0.23 [The event is unlikely]

Exercise 2.1
Using concepts of probability addition and multiplication laws, solve the following problems.
a. If GJ % V
W
, GJ «
\
, and GJ %| «
V]
, then GJ % is?
b. If GJ % «
\
, GJ V
W
, and GJ % ¬
V]
, then GJ % ∩ is?
c. If GJ % V
W
, GJ W
\
, and GJ -% «
V]
, then GJ % ∩ is?
d. If A and B are mutually exclusive events and GJ % V
W
and GJ W
\
, then GJ % is?

41
LECTURE NOTES PREPARED BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
PREPARED BY DR. K. O. OLOREDE (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
e. If A and B are independent events and GJ % = «
V]
and GJ = «\, then G % is?

2.4 The Total Probability Rule and Bayes’ Theorem

In elementary probability theory, the computation of a posterior probability GJ ‚%® | ƒ from given prior
probabilities GJ %d and conditional probabilities GJ |%d occupies a central position in elementary
probability. The general rule for such computations, which is really just a simple application of
Multiplication Rule, goes back to the Reverend Thomas Bayes, who lived in eighteenth century. The
basic understanding is that events %! , ⋯ , %g are mutually exclusive if no two have any common outcomes
and that the events are exhaustive if one %d must occur, so that %! ∪ ⋯ ∪ %g = .

2.4.1 Total Probability Rule

Let %! , ⋯ , %g be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. Then for any other event B,
GJ = GJ |%! ∙ GJ %! ^ ⋯ ^ GJ |%g
g

GJ = c GJ |%d ∙ GJ %d
df!

2.4.2 Total Probability Rule for Two Events

For any two events A and B such that A and %3 are two distict partitions of the sample space and
GJ %d E 0 for all %d , the total probability rule is given as
GJ = GJ ∩ % ^ GJ ∩ %3
GJ = GJ |% GJ % ^ GJ |%3 GJ %3

Figure 2-2: Partitioning An event

into two mutually exclusive subsets

One of the uses of the rule is to compute the probability of various events B for which the conditional
probabilities GJ |%d are known or easy to derive.

42
LECTURE NOTES
PREPARED PREPARED
BY DR. BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE
K. O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
(CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
2.4.3 Total Probability Rule for More than Two Events
Let P! , P' , ⋯ , PT are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events which are partitions of B in the
sample. Then
GJ = GJ ∩ P! ^ GJ ∩ P' ^ ⋯ ^ GJ ∩ PT
GJ = GJ |P! GJ P! ^ GJ |P' GJ P' ^ ⋯ ^ GJ |PT GJ PT

Figure 2-3: Partitioning an event

into several mutually exclusive subsets

= 0.8 , what is GJ % ?
Example 2.19:
Suppose that GJ %| = 0.2, GJ %| ′
= 0.3 567 GJ
Solution:
GJ % GJ % ∩ ^ GJ % ∩ ′
GJ % GJ %| GJ ^ GJ %| ′
GJ ′

GJ % 0.2 q 0.8 ^ 0.3 q 0.2

GJ % 0.16 ^ 0.6
GJ % 0.22

Example 2.20:
The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty period of
a portable connector. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure during the warranty
period is 5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what proportion of connectors
fail during the warranty period?

Let %! 2S B1669BC12 A5HI> 7;2H6R Q52256CS @92H17, GJ %! 0.01

Solution

%' ¨9C B1669BC12 A5HI> 7;2H6R Q52256CS @92H17, GJ %' 0.05

B1669BC12 A5HI> 7;2H6R Q52256CS @92H17, GJ ?

43
LECTURE NOTES PREPARED BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
PREPARED BY DR. K. O. OLOREDE (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
GJ |%! = 0.9 567 GJ |%' = 0.1
GJ = GJ ∩ %! ∪ GJ ∩ %'
GJ = GJ |%! GJ %! ^ GJ |%' GJ %'
GJ = 0.9 q 0.01 ^ 0.1 q 0.05
GJ = 0.014

Example 2.21:
Suppose 2% of cotton fabric rolls and 3% of nylon fabric rolls contain flaws. Of the rolls used by a
manufacturer, 70% are cotton and 30% are nylon. What is the probability that a randomly selected
roll used by the manufacturer contains flaws?
Solution:
Let %! = 5=2HB 21II> B16C5H6 AI5Q>, GJ %! = 0.02
%' = SI16 21II> B16C5H6 AI5Q>, GJ %' = 0.03
= 9I9BC97 21II B16C5H6> AI5Q, GJ =?
GJ |%! 0.7 567 GJ |%' 0.3
GJ GJ ∩ %! ∪ GJ ∩ %'
GJ GJ |%! GJ %! ^ GJ |%' GJ %'
GJ 0.7 q 0.02 ^ 0.3 q 0.03
GJ 0.023

Example 2.22:
Samples of laboratory glass are in small, light packaging or heavy, large packaging. Suppose that 2
and 1% of the sample shipped in small and large packages, respectively, break during transit. If 60%
of the samples are shipped in large packages and 40% are shipped in small packages, what proportion
of samples break during shipment?

Let %! I5>> >5<@I9> >KH@@97 H6 ><5II @5BX5RH6R =295X H6 C256>HC, GJ %! 0.02

Solution

%' I5>> >5<@I9> H6 I52R9 @5BX5RH6R =295X H6 C256>HC, GJ %' 0.01

G21@12CH16 1A RI5>> >5<@I9> =295X5R9> 7;2H6R >KH@<96C, GJ ?
GJ |%! 0.4 567 GJ |%' 0.6
GJ GJ ∩ %! ∪ GJ ∩ %'
GJ GJ |%! GJ %! ^ GJ |%' GJ %'
GJ 0.4 q 0.02 ^ 0.7 q 0.01

44
LECTURE NOTES
PREPARED PREPARED
BY DR. BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE
K. O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
(CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
GJ = 0.015

2.4.4 Bayes’ Rule

Bayes’ Rule
Let %! , %' , ⋯ , %T be disjoint events that form a partition of the sample space, and assume that
G %d E 0, for all i. Then, for any event B such that G E 0, we have

GJ %d q GJ |%d
GJ %d | =
GJ
GJ %d q GJ |%d
GJ %d | =
GJ %! q GJ |%d ^ ⋯ ^ GJ %T q GJ |%T

Example 2.23: [The False-Positive Puzzle]

A test for a certain rare disease is assumed to be correct 95% of the time: if a person has the disease,
the test results are positive with probability 0.95, and if the person does not have the disease, the test
results are negative with probability 0.95. A random person drawn from a certain population has
probability 0.001 of having the disease. Given that the person just tested positive, what is the
probability of having the disease?
Solution
If A is the event that the person has the disease, and B is the event that the test results are positive,
the desired probability GJ %| , is
GJ % GJ |%
GJ %| =
GJ % GJ |% ^ GJ %3 GJ |%3
0.001 q 0.95
GJ %| =
0.001 q 0.95 ^ 0.999 q 0.05
GJ %| = 0.0187

Example 2.24:
Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of highly successful
products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products
Received good reviews, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of
products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been
poor products.
a. What is the probability that a product attains a good review?

45
LECTURE NOTES PREPARED BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
PREPARED BY DR. K. O. OLOREDE (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
b. If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a successful
product?
c. If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be highly
successful?
Solution:
Let G denote a product that received a good review. Let H, M, and P denote products that were high,
moderate, and poor performers, respectively.
a. GJ = GJ |- GJ - ^ GJ | GJ ^ GJ |G GJ G
GJ = 0.95 0.40 ^ 0.60 0.35 ^ 0.10 0.25
GJ = 0.615
b. Using the results from part a.,
GJ |- GJ |-
GJ -| =
GJ
0.95 0.40
GJ -| =
0.615
GJ -| = 0.618

~• ‚¯ ′ |°ƒ~• °
c. GJ -| ′
= ~• ‚¯ ′ ƒ
0.05 0.40
GJ -| =
1 a 0.615
GJ -| = 0.052

Example 2.25:
Suppose that GJ %| ′
= 0.7, GJ % = 0.5 and GJ ′
= 0.2. 9C92<H69 GJ |% .

Solution
GJ q GJ %|
GJ |% =
GJ q GJ %| ^ GJ 3 q GJ %| ′

0.2 q 0.7
GJ |% =
0.2 q 0.7 ^ 0.8 q 0.3
0.14
GJ |% =
0.14 ^ 0.24
GJ |% = 0.3684
GJ |% = 0.4

46
LECTURE NOTES
PREPARED PREPARED
BY DR. BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE
K. O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
(CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences

Exercise 2.2:
1. Seventy percent of the light aircraft that disappear while in flight in certain country are
subsequently discovered. Of the aircraft that are discovered, 60% have an emergency
locator, whereas 90% of the aircraft not discovered do not have such a locator. Suppose a
light aircraft has disappeared.
a. If it has an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will be discovered?
b. If it does not have an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will be
discovered?
2. A professional organization (for statisticians, of course) sells term life insurance and major
medical insurance. Of those who have just life insurance, 70% will renew next year, and
80% of those with only a major medical policy will renew next year. However, 90% of
policyholders who have both types of policy will renew at least one of them next year. Of
the policy holders, 75% have term life insurance, 45% have major medical, and 20% have
both.
a. Calculate the percentage of policyholders that will renew at least one policy next
year.
b. If a randomly selected policyholder does in fact renew next year, what is the
probability that he or she has both life and major medical insurance?

3. A large operator of timeshare complexes requires anyone interested in making a purchase

to first visit the site of interest. Historical data indicates that 20% of all potential
purchasers select a day visit, 50% choose a one-night visit, and 30% opt for a two-night
visit. In addition, 10% of day visitors ultimately make a purchase, 30% of night visitors
buy a unit, and 20% of those visiting for two nights decide to buy. Suppose a visitor is
randomly selected and found to have bought a timeshare. How likely is it that this person
made a day visit? A one-night visit? A two-night visit?

4. For customers purchasing a full set of tires at a particular tire store, consider three events

% = CH29> @;2BK5>97 Q929 <579 H6 CK9 %

= G;2BK5>92 K5> CH29> =5I56B97 H<<97H5C9IS
& = G;2BK5>92 29D;9>C> A216C a 967 5IHR6<96C
Along with %3 , 3 , 567 & 3 . Assume the following unconditional and conditional
probabilities:

47
LECTURE NOTES PREPARED BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
PREPARED BY DR. K. O. OLOREDE (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
 THE DEPARTMENT
THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
OF STATISTICS AND STATISTICS
AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2016/2017 HARMATTAN
HARMATTAN 2023/2024 SESSION SEMESTER
HSTA
STA203: 205: Probability
Statistics Distributions
for Physical I
Sciences
GJ % = 0.75 GJ |% = 0.9 GJ |%3 = 0.8 GJ &|% ∩ = 0.8
3 3 3 3
GJ &|% ∩ = 0.6 GJ &|% ∩ = 0.7 GJ &|% ∩ = 0.3
a. Construct a tree diagram consisting of first-, second-, and third-generation
branches and place and event label and appropriate probability next to each branch.
b. Compute GJ % ∩ ∩ & .
c. Compute GJ ∩ & .
d. Compute GJ & .
e. Compute GJ %| ∩ & , the probability of a purchaser of US tires given that both
balancing and an alignment were requested.

48
LECTURE NOTES PREPARED BY MR. K.O. OLOREDE © 2016/2017
PREPARED BY DR. K. O. OLOREDE (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)