Investigating The Value of An MBA Education Using NPV Decision Model
Investigating The Value of An MBA Education Using NPV Decision Model
That is the question Investigating the Value of an MBA Education using NPV Decision Model
W5491: Math for Finance X410.21 (Summer 2011-UCLA Extension ) Prof. Nicholas Nucho
Ashwin Shah
Mehnaz Alam
Nabil Quadri
Agenda
Background Our Approach Schools
Loans
Introducing the Candidates Our NPV Model in Action WaitHow did that all work? Pushing the Boundaries
Conclusion
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Background
Pros:
Potential to accelerate careers across various industries MBA graduates usually command higher salaries Opportunity to change careers Exposure to different networks
Cons
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Expensive Risk of not increasing salary post MBA Time Commitment Strain on loved ones Loss of 2 years of income
Our Approach
Overview
We recognize there are many components that factor into
Approach to Evaluation
Ultimately, this decision will vary based on an individuals
investment since each program leads to a different post-MBA income and income growth rate.
Our Process
Gathered detailed data about MBA programs, potential earnings,
Ensured our model meets financial modeling best practices Carefully crafted candidate profiles to reflect varied career
situations
Schools
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Big Ten
Private Online
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paper Estimating the Internal Rate of Return on an MBA, John B.White., Morgan P. Miles, and Roger M.White
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Not directly comparable with US-only scenarios So, for the purposes of this project, we did not include non-US
MBA programs
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Loans
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Loan Programs
We took 3 loan programs: one for each
Loan Type: Federal Subsidized Graduate Loan Federal Unsubsidized Graduate Loan Citibank Graduate Student Loan (Private)
graduation
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$0.00
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2%
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$0.92
$0.63
$0.39
$0.70
$0.30
Federal subsidized graduate
$0.20
$0.00
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 6.8% with maturity of 20 years
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$0.80
$0.61
$0.00
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 6.8% with maturity of 20 years
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$1.20 $1.06 $1.00 $0.97 $0.83 $0.80 $0.66 $0.60 $0.59 $0.59 Citibank $0.35 $0.88
$0.40
$0.26
$0.20
$0.00
In millions
Columbia
Yale
GeorgeTown Babson Olin Rocheter Arizona State McDonough Simon School Carey of Business
Univ of Phoenix
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 8.0% with maturity of 30 years
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Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2%
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($0.34)
($0.34)
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 6.8% with maturity of 20 years
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($0.36)
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 6.8% with maturity of 20 years
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$0.20 $0.07 $0.00 ($0.01) ($0.10) ($0.15) ($0.20) ($0.32) ($0.39) ($0.40) ($0.39) Citibank
($0.60)
($0.63)
($0.63)
($0.80) Harvard Business School Kellogg School of Management Columbia Kelley School of Business Yale GeorgeTown Babson Olin Rocheter Arizona State McDonough Simon School Carey of Business Univ of Phoenix
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 8.0% with maturity of 30 years
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$(200,000.00)
$(400,000.00)
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2%
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$0.80 $0.60
$0.40 $0.20 $0.00 $0.54 $0.45 $0.31 $0.37 $0.14
$0.07
$0.08
($0.16)
($0.20) ($0.40)
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 6.8% with maturity of 20 years
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$0.05
$0.05
$0.12
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 6.8% with maturity of 20 years
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$0.60 $0.49 $0.40 $0.40 $0.26 $0.20 $0.09 $0.02 $0.00 ($0.21) $0.02 Citibank $0.31
($0.20)
($0.25)
($0.40) Harvard Business School Kellogg School of Management Columbia Kelley School of Business Yale GeorgeTown Babson Olin Rocheter Arizona State McDonough Simon School Carey of Business Univ of Phoenix
In millions
Calculated using : Horizon of 30 years Discount rate of 5% Non MBA Income growth rate of 2% Loan Interest Rate of 8.0% with maturity of 30 years
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Model Overview
Consists of 5 worksheets:
NPV Calculator: The main NPV calculation sheet School Profiles: List of MBA programs under analysis with associated
variables
parameters
Candidate Profiles: List of Candidates with associated variables NPV Iterator: Tool to apply the NPV model in one shot to various
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Drop-down options are linked to respective Profile worksheet After selecting desired combination, click on Button to load all
associated input variables from each profile worksheet into NPV Calculator Input fields values of the input variables, which can then be changed manually in NPV Calculator
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Discount Rate)
Horizon in Years (starting from MBA graduation) Length of time into future over which all cash-flows are considered Constant Discount Rate (used in all PV calculations) We have assumed a standard rate of 5% and separately completed sensitivity analysis Full-time or Part-time MBA (flag selected from drop-down) School-related Input: Can be loaded from School Profile
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rates: standard NPV practice) Candidate-related Input: Can be loaded from Candidate Profile
Non-MBA Income Growth Function
Can use constant income growth function or variable one: this
flag variable specifies which method to use For all current analysis, we have used Constant function and separately studied effect of using variable for one profile
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programs), the growth during the partial year is calculated by taking effective period growth rate (EAR formula applied to Constant Growth Rate)
MBA) can be specified on timeline Using this it is possible to simulate various real-world scenarios such as Interim raises, Diminishing growth, Effect of sign-on bonuses, Career Stagnation, Change of Career Paths, Change to Self-Owned Business, etc.
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standard NPV practice) School-related Input: Can be loaded from School Profile. But note that the school profile gives average post-MBA income whereas actual post-MBA income would also vary based on the candidates experience and chosen career path
Post-MBA Income Growth Function
Can use constant income growth function or variable one: this flag
variable specifies which method to use For all current analysis, we have used Constant function and separately studied effect of using variable growth for one candidate
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year) can be specified on timeline Using this it is possible to simulate various real-world scenarios such as Interim raises, Diminishing growth, Effect of sign-on bonuses, Career Stagnation, Change of Career Paths, Change to Self-Owned Business, etc.
[1] Estimating the Internal Rate of Return on an MBA: A Comparison of the Return from Top-Ranked & Second-Tier Programs, John B.White., Morgan P. Miles, and Roger M.White
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Room and Board, Utilities, Health Services, Other Fees, Misc. Expenses). Model allows flexibility of not considering a specific type of expense (e.g. Room and Board need not be considered if the candidate is a local with own residence). Simple change in summation formula used on School profile sheet Total of all of the relevant expenses is loaded into this NPV Calculator to determine amounts to be borrowed or used up from savings
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affects derivation of period interest rate from annual interest rate Loan-related Input: Can be loaded from Loan Profile
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excused from making loan payments Loan is amortized starting from date of expiry of grace period Loan-related Input: Can be loaded from Loan Profile
Loan Maturity (in years)
Length of time over which loan is amortized Loan-related Input: Can be loaded from Loan Profile. In practice, for
private loans, loan maturity can vary quite a bit. Since model allows for custom inputs, this is easily handled.
payments
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institution Loan-related Input: Can be loaded from Loan Profile Affects the calculation of the actual beginning principal amount:
For subsidized loans, the compound interest waived off the duration of the MBA.
In case for unsubsidized or private loan, beginning principle balance is equal to
approved loan amount plus the compound interest accrued over duration of MBA. All loan payments are assumed to be deferred till graduation (reflects majority of realworld scenarios)
Rate using APR or EAR formula depending on Rate Convention Beginning Principal Balance: Derived Input Calculated from Approved Loan Amount using period interest rate, duration of MBA & grace period applied to basic compound interest formula
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input variables
First model calculates PVs of the various cash flows involved: Present Value of Loan Repayments (PVLoan-payments): up to loan maturity Present Value of Post-MBA Income (PVPost-MBA): projected from graduation to model horizon Present Value of Projected Non-MBA Income (PVNon-MBA) : projected from start of MBA to model horizon Present Value of Income forfeited during MBA (PVDuring-MBA)
Then PVs are combined to give NPV of MBA
For full-time MBA programs
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Rate used = Period Interest Rate No. of Periods = Total Payment Periods (Loan Maturity * No. of Payments
Constant Discount Rate and No. of Payments per Year using EAR formula) No. of Periods = Total Payment Periods (Loan Maturity * No. of Payments per Year) Annuity Amount = Amortized Loan Payment Amount (L-PMT)
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time-line approach
First-year income is projected on an annual basis from
graduation to the model horizon Growth rates used are the effective growth rates for each period (Constant or Variable depending on Post-MBA inputs) Present value of each years income calculated using Excel PV formula
Rate = Constant Discount Rate No. of Periods = Duration of MBA + Years after graduation
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starting point for income projection This income is projected on an annual basis from the date of starting the MBA to the model horizon so the timeline of Non-MBA path is longer than Post-MBA path by the length of the MBA Growth rates used are the effective growth rates for each period (Constant or Variable depending on Non-MBA inputs) Present value of each years income calculated using Excel PV formula
Rate = Constant Discount Rate
formula. Condition is simple check of Part-time/Full-time flag specified in General Parameter Inputs section
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Profile Worksheets
School Profiles: Define each MBA program along with:
Ranking Expense breakup Average historical income after graduation Estimated constant annual income growth rate
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programs and loan programs and calculate their NPVs at the click of a button
Enter name of candidate/B-school/loan-program exactly as
given in respective Profiles worksheet Enter an interest rate and loan maturity period to override defaults associated with loan program Enter starting and ending rows for iterator (allows you to enter all data but calculate NPV only for some)
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7%
9%
-$500,000.00 -$1,000,000.00
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Candidate Profile Model Horizon Loan Program Interest Rate Loan Maturity Non-MBA Income Growth Rate
$1,500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$500,000.00
$0.00 0% -$500,000.00 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% MBA Program Columbia Model Horizon 30 years Loan Program Citibank Interest Rate 8% Loan Maturity 30 years Non-MBA Income Growth Rate 2%
Discount Rate
Mr. Non-Profit Ms. Wall Street Mr. IT
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both pre-MBA and post-MBA incomes Simpler to conceptualize Real data for various programs available from previous studies Gives a career-path agnostic NPV estimate
More realistic and practical NPV decision analysis can be
done using Variable Growth Function feature of NPV model (natively supported)
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number of realistic career paths and imagined hypothetical post-MBA growth functions for each of these
For simplicity non-MBA income path was still assumed to
Fixed Variables:
Loan Program Interest Rate Loan Maturity Non-MBA Income Growth Rate Discount Rate
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Career Consultant
1st year growth: 3% (sign-on bonus effect) Years 2-5: 4% (initial spurt) Years 6-13: 3% (plateau: middle management) Years 14-20: 7% (partnership: revenue share)
Starting with a rate of 7%, the growth itself decelerates @ 10% per year with a terminal value of 1.2% Constant rate of 2.5% except once every 5 years when candidate switches jobs and gets a one-time boost of 10% due to signing bonus and switching raise Constant salary growth of 2.5% for first 8 years. Then candidate starts a new company (0% for 4 years). Once enterprise takes off, personal income growth shoots up to 15% per year
Job Hopper
I Have a Dream
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Constant
Career Consultant
Job Hopper
I Have a Dream
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Conclusion
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we can see that pursuing an MBA is a smart financial decision for Mr. Non Profit and Mr. IT.
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Takeaways
The NPV model can effectively provide a useful way of
evaluating the decision of whether to proceed with an MBA and where to apply purely in a financial perspective taking into consideration various market factors such as loan programs, interest rates etc.
such as the potential of building a professional network, building on various skills such as entrepreneurship, leadership and team-building.
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