Inner Circle Trader Notes
Inner Circle Trader Notes
Before you read all of the ICT Notes please note that I no longer trade anything like this.
I use Quant Software called Strategy Quant X which you can try for free 14 days. It costs less
than the ICT metorship and you are pretty much guarenteed a ROI.
I wish someone introduced this to me much earlier when I started to learn about trading:
www.strategyquant.com
If you end up wanting to buy it here are some coupons and an explaination about them.
Optimal trade entry is based on buying retracements. An impulse leg moves up/down and then
moves off that level in the opposite direction (a “break in microstructure”) to enter the optimal
trade entry zone.
Fibonacci Levels
Start by setting up your Fib retracement levels as follows
Level Description
1 100.0
0.618 %$ – 62 percent
0.705 %$ – OTE – 70.5 percent
0.79 %$ – 79 percent
0 0.0 – First Profit Scaling
-0.62 Target 2
-0.27 Target 1
-1 Symmetrical Swing
For any retracement, drawn from the local high-low or low-high, we are looking for price to enter
the zone between 62 percent and 70.9 percent.
First fill is taken at 62 percent. Allow price to extend down to 80 (just below 70.9 percent). (?)
Stop is at the initial level (100.0). What is the point of the 70.9 level then? Do we continue to
add to the position until it exceeds that level? Then stop taking trades once that level’s
exceeded and wait (pray) that it will turn before reaching the stop?
Take first profits at 0.0, and take further profits at Targets 1, 2, and Symmetrical swing if price
gets that far.
Michael also points out the ‘impulse leg’ and emphasizes its significance but it’s not yet
clear how this was defined and singled out.
● A high (low) with two lower highs (lows) on either side of it makes the high (low) in the
middle a ‘significant high (low)’ Concept from Larry Williams (author of W%R and
awesome oscillator, good company to keep
● A significant high (low) being broken is more convincing than the break of the short-term
high.
3 bar swing
The daily TF is the most important (“a goldmine”).
A swing high (low) is a high (low) with two lower highs (lows) flanking it on either side.
When you have a swing high you want to look at the previous day’s lows (highs). If price broke
through the prior day’s low (high) there is a good probability that it will continue the following
day.
Michael doesn’t define what he means by continuation but I’ll assume “continue” is defined as
setting a new higher high or lower low the following day.
As Jake Bernstein says, always check things out for yourself. So I did and found this to be
generally true. Kind of amazing that it’s not better known (or at least, discussed) among traders
considering how elementary and fundamental it is.
ICT W.E.N.T series part 1
● Forex is a good opportunity to make an exceptional living but you need to be committed
● You should focus on the risk not the reward
● You need to treat it like a business owner running a business
● Go through all the material, don’t cherry-pick
● You are being trained like good sheep to go out and lose money (“get slaughtered”). The
market is a playground for the banks. When I look at the way Forex is taught on sites like
Babypips I have to agree with this. Brokers want you to lose but not too quickly, so that
they can ‘milk’ you. Hence the oft-quoted “only risk 1% of your account per trade” even
though position sizing should be tailored to the strategy, and a fixed equity sizing system
is not always the best in all situations. The herd is taught all the same things on most
sites- for ex. MACD/crossovers, etc.
● Ground rules:
○ Leave your ego at the door
○ Know thyself; spend a week analyzing your personality – it determines the type of
trader you’ll be
○ Don’t underestimate the power of forming bad habits during demo trading. Trade
with the amount of leverage that you’d be able to use in a live account.
○ Treat the demo account like your business equity
○ Learn to walk before you run – you don’t need hundreds of pips a month to earn a
good compounded return; if you double your account in a year that’s still a
phenomenal result.
○ Keep your ego in check (see #1). Don’t brag on the forums.
○ Avoid the trader’s graveyard – overtrading, overleveraging, trading without a plan,
trading without a protective stop
○ It doesn’t require long hours; don’t burn out
● Swing points – a three candle pattern with the middle candle flanked by two candles that
are either lower or higher. If the middle candle is higher than its brothers, it is a ‘swing
high’, if lower, then it’s a ‘swing low’.
● You should keep in mind the range between the highest high and the lowest low of these
swings. This needs a name. Maybe a ‘swing range’?
● We can mark the high and low of the range with a horizontal line. Is this something we
should be doing in every analysis?
● “Over time you’ll adopt an eye for price swings and the ones that will be most useful to
you will become obviously much more apparent as time goes on.” Can this be stated with
more specificity? For example in the form of when you see X perform Y?
● The OHLC prices of those three candles are sensitive price points.
● Budget your time. Make time for your family, life, etc.
ICT W.E.N.T series part 2
● It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon
● If we improve stop accuracy we can reduce the pip goal and still meet total profit
objectives
● You can measure distance in pips using a rectangle
● Use the Monthly high/lows, the daily high/lows in swing points to build levels off which you
expect price to react
ICT W.E.N.T series part 3
● Finding your way in price
○ Know your trading timeframe
○ Frame trades on at least 3 timeframes
■ For position trading – monthly – weekly – daily (trades last months or years)
■ For swing trading – daily – 4 hour – 1 hour (trades last a week or more)
■ “Short-term trades” – 4 hour – 1 hour – M15
■ Day trading & scalping – 1 hour – M15 – M5
● Starting with the day trade/scalping timeframe gives you immediate feedback
● The keys to multiple TF market structure
○ Manage trades on the highest or middle TF; focus should be on the highest
○ Lowest is used to enter and signal potential reversals
○ Highest probability trades are made in the direction of the highest TF
○ All trades are framed on key support & resistance levels
○ Market profiles help with market structure analysis
● A ‘break in microstructure’ is when price breaks past a swing high or swing low.
● During periods of consolidation support and resistance levels should be studied. These
areas are more easily traded because they have discernible price levels.
● A previous swing can be measured to project a price target for a swing in the opposite
direction; identified by a break in a previous swing high/low. Is there a difference in the
terms ‘price swing’ and ‘price leg’?
● By marking out your swing levels you build a framework that’s needed to know if you’re in
a long-term or intermediate term price swing within your market structure.
● Traders need to be comfortable with uncertainty and having a correct directional bias
doesn’t guarantee profitability
● Moving from higher TF to lower TF we calibrate likely support and resistance levels by
finding historical areas of consolidation
● Higher level charts dictate direction.
ICT W.E.N.T series part 4
● Support and resistance is more reliable than lagging indicators
● Horizontal support and resistance is more reliable than diagonal (trend lines)
● You need to find consistent trade setups and trade them the same way consistently;
otherwise you’re just gambling; support and resistance is crucial to this
● There are two types of support and resistance – natural and implied.
○ Natural types mostly break down into time periods
■ 12 month
■ Quarterly
■ Monthly
■ Weekly
■ Daily
■ Session
■ Intraday fractals
■ Trendline analysis – Channels
○ Implied
■ Fib levels
■ Pivot points
COT Reports
● COT reports – there are 3 groups reporting
○ Small speculators
○ Large speculators
○ Commercials – Users and suppliers
○ The commercials and large speculators are usually in diametrically opposite
positions
○ 12 month and 4 year highs/lows are significant predictors of change
○ When commercials are extreme long, expect a low to be forming, when extreme
short, expect a top. This could take months to unfold however.
○ COT Insider Tactic
■ When commercials are extreme long reduce risk on shorts and start looking
for long opportunities
■ When commercials move to net short positions, there may be a downside
correction, but don’t be fooled; it’s still a bull market.
■ When commercials return to net long (less extreme) look for swing or position
long trades (market will still be declining, yes? We are expecting the market
to decline while commercials are bullish and vice versa?)
■ Commercials return to net short, expect more short-term corrections, ok to
take short-term short trades
■ Commercials return to net long, smallest majority position to date; look for
buying opportunities
■ By the time commercials are at an extreme net short position the market
should have risen near its top; reduce longs and start looking for shorts.
○ Having an understanding of support and resistance/market structure along with the
COT chart can help you get in synch for monster position trades (1000+pips)
● 90% of the best moves take place in a ‘turtle soup’ environment where there is a false
break below an old low. Assume the reverse is true as well. Sell stops are being taken out
right before price rallies. Smart money taking out dumb money? Rejections/raids on
liquidity pools? ABCD extension? I’m just going to assume I”ll understand these terms
once I’ve watched 12-120 more videos.
● “Put this in your notes – when you see THIS.” What is ‘this’? The sudden drop to take out
an old low? Ok, it’s already in my notes, I hope.
● Each low-to-high range (“measured move”) will repeat?
● When commercials rapidly change gears it might not be a contrarian indicator the way it
usually is (? Did I get this right? I don’t understand the difference between the small
bumps and the big bumps in the commercial chart or the explanation given for the
possible difference.)
● Smart money buys when price is dropping, and presumably vice-versa. You want to be
trading in the opposite direction you want to see a profit.
● Stop listening to the herd
● Focus on the smart money.
● You want to trade in the direction of the most recent 12 month commercial net position
(??) I think you mean in the direction of the large speculators? We want to trade in the
opposite direction to the commercials who are hedging against the actual anticipated
price movement?)
● Wait for price to form intermediate swings? (“Intermediate” is relative to trading horizon?)
● Use the OTE pattern to enter with the large traders (here you mention you mean the
speculators, not the commercials)
● Filter longs when commercials are extreme short (12mth/4year) and vice versa.
My initial check of this bold statement seems to indicate this is not quite accurate. If this
were true a good strategy would simply be to trade the opposite direction of Monday-
Wednesday on Thursday and Friday. Trading might be simple but it ain’t that simple! See
testing results at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-W0zLc9-
oqQ1uIuACLKnjX6DHE58KETlNxZxxmOKZ6s
Even if we sum the highs and lows for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from Oct ‘16-Oct-’17
their total percentage of the week is around 58%. Monday is the clear winner at 30%. The
trouble is there is still a 70% chance that the high or low will be on another day. Checking 2010
next.
2010
Back in 2010 the most likely day of the week that a high or low would fall was Friday (31%) , not
Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday. Combined percentage of 56% for M/T/W
None of this invalidates the notion of the ‘Judas Swing’ necessarily, but I think we can safely
say the 80% figure quoted is an exaggeration, unless things are much different in other
instruments, which they may be, I haven’t had time/inclination to check yet.
My preference would be to explain this phenomenon as a result of price bouncing off the sides
of price channels, in other words, cyclicality, but I’m trying to keep an open mind.
USD/CAD Analysis
● London ICT Killzone? (I presume this was explained in another video or maybe I missed
it.)
● Barcharts.com – click ‘add study’ and choose ‘commitment of traders’ (name changed
since video was made) Using 5 year period.
● Daily chart – using 18 & 40 period EMAs.
● Open interest – no longer on Barchart.com? Or is ‘volume’ the same as total volume?
Contract volume is also missing now. What should we try using now?
● Trading on the higher timeframes puts you in synch with the smart money.
● The opening of the distance between the MA’s is indicative of ‘stacking’. Which basically
just means price was rising? Or smart money was re-purchasing at every dip?