Chaptes

1
Basic Psobablity (oncepts
2099| 0| 16
#Basic Terms
wednesday
1) Expesim ent anytsk os
chon hat s
pevfomed
et seme esult+s c Out comes

DefesminishRe
Epev)ment
Ne Pro bab iltsthe |Rand om
e xpesimenE
4nose whose
pesei ble outronnes 4ho se ohdse posei ble
ean be
pTiosly prtdltcated o utnmes cqn Le not be

Perfeoty p*dreated
Toss1 ng q falr coin
Tossin a coin o i r e

2) Sample Space I t s the set f

outw mes.
al
pose)ble
7 s denoted b S o 2
e S t ead, Tai)
S HH HTTHTT7
Semple spare for Toling (S)
a d1e
=
, 23, 4,s, 6 3
Sam ple sare for oll1rg a dice (i-e, nwo d1es)
(s) , 1213 4 , 1s, 16, 21, e2( 23, 24,
25, 26, 3, 2 3 , 34, 3 s, 636,
1 2 3, 4 MS, 6 , S S1
S 31 Su SS) s6, 61, 2 C G4
S 66
) Tsia ard Event

TYial is 4 e Indmd ug perfosmance of

expenmen
t
andom epesiment. yandonm
oY

out Conn e f tial11s called as Event

Pesult or

Enam/le c events
Let, E1 = Cettnc neads
head
t2 aetthi ng L

no head
F3 C ektinq

TY ettng at leas+1 head

Es etino ah most 1 head
here, E1,62,3 ,G4 Es are events.

Cven -s

Simple Event Compound Event

event navind event haing move than
tnale resulb ër
one resulE ouj tonMe.
Single outcome

Eampe
Po1 Dlng a dre
S f213,4,S,6
Le
" =0eting 1 (aple eent)
ndm ber ecnpeund event)
 Ez a eting Even numbey ( Com peund event)

o rlln h o dIce Imultaneausy

66
S 12 12, 13,
Leki both odd numbers (compoungen)
Ea =
n ethng
E aetHn boy even numbe1s (lcmpcund event)
3 uetMng both faces same (compand event)
Equetnnq olrffevent faces (cempasnd aventE)
Gs aethng reater numbeyfncempomd event)
f r s t dre than se cond

Es Caeting sum of both faces occmpound

arte even t
geates than 5

many mre pe eveni

s)
4) Fual lirely_ events
Those eents or possible autcam es ahese-sce
h ich have equa pobabihh opL occu rance 9se
called as
eqsaty likely e vents.
ea TesSing a co)n
both te ad and Tail hae equd
S , T 1 Pero babll occuran te ())
Fos Rolling die a

S
2 3,4,s, 6} ; al +he numbers have
rjug
proba bi 1hy of occurance
Cre
 EYclus)Ve EventS
S) Mutually
events ove s a r d fo
oe muhMaly
T w o oy moa
both +he eenje domo
erdus) e evonts 1f
simultanecUsl4 a t Pn e
Can not occur

Sam e me2.

events
6 Exhaustive Cascs G%
The otal numbex of al posei ble outhome s
d random expev)me nt ts call ed as
of
ehaustive cases/een ts
7 1 1s denoted by n.

e S 2 3, 4 S, 6
- n =
6

7) FavouYabl e caces or even-ts

7 + te tne kotal number o possible outcome
oapovteulax eent.

denot ed by m
s 2 94 S, 6
etr
EI= neting een
num b ex
m 3B

) Tndepend ent Events

sard to ba. Independent
Two e v e t e a e
events if t e oceurance o one e vent a i e s
ylo affeck Ma oceuranca af anofhe evenE
9 ) D e p e n de n t Events

evend S ae satdtd ba dep end ent eents

TwO
the occuenre on e evont affèaHs the
if anothex eent.
G CCu nra N
2 079)07|13
Friday
A VariousApproach es to Probabiliy
11 Claccical_o Math e nmati cal Approachn
ThtS eonrep+ or appro ach 1s based onh Theore Hcal
or 1dead concep+-ion.
L e E +M eve ane nnumbe* of muna11 eaclusie
and qually likely ex hausAve c a s e r eents

andom e x p e r i m e n t .
a case3
OutOf n, m number
fa bour +o an even t A (sa).

o
Then 4he
an even t A , d enotod by
pmba ailirA)o nappent ng
9 en
0

PCA) PavouTable case g m

EKhausHve Coses n

Srmlarly fom we def",

TWe prob. of non- happ enrnq a an
nnt A, denot ed b P CA or
P(A) is
denoted as i

P (A)= m -M

P(A)= 1-PCA
RemarksS:
1. PCA)20 and PA)e0
Such that PCA)Pc A) = 1

es always bet we en d ad I)
(P. pmbabll

Pt1
mLn
2. 0 PCA) 4 1,
1
. PCS)TOtal prbabIity =

4 PCe) =preba bilit a

impossible' even t

S. Tf A and B are tuo mutually exclusive events

events
ge4tine ot leas4
Hen +e probability
one event ( )-e, Eithév A c B s e n
ve n

PCA 0v e) P (AUB) = pCA) +PCB)

Srmtlarlyfos the muialy eaclusive

evens A and C,
PCAUCUC) = P<A) + PLB) + PCC)|
 Ezamp1e 1
7 f ypu toss a faii cotn Fuaice,tnen Rnd the

Probabhtt of q etting
head
) a e ast o n e
(i) 2 h eads
(li 1 head
(IV no head
at most o n e he ad
(v
Solun
Sampla spare (s) = HH H7, THI7T}}
E_haush ve case s (n) = 4

h ead
Let 9 ettmng ot l ed+ 1

cases ( m) S
fawu rabla
=
.

1 head 1s,
S0 prbabib retthng ar1east

P Cc) -
( Let getrg wo heads
. M = 1

PCCa) M

Le Ca gethng head
m 2

PCC)
 head
(i9) S LetCy- gtthng no

m 1

P Cy)
( 01
e t Cs= getth ng af most me head

. m =
3

So P (Cs) =

1 head Mean JI 232T Head attaj

+masb
273qA Head aR TA

count JT qu} i

Eaample 2
Zf ou 1 1 hoo dice S1multaneau sly, +men
Fnd ine pPabily pobabil*j of 9rethi ngg
() sum Gneatex +han 2

(1) sum of 3 c9
) same facos
(iv f f arentfaces
so
S , 12 13, 14, 15, 6, 211 22 2 3 , 24,2s, 26,

32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 4 92 y3, 14,

y, SI $2 s, su 5 S, S6, l
6
6263, 64, 6 S 6, 6

-. Exhou s h a cases cn)= 36

)Sum qeat e tnan g

S
Let D1 4 e t i n g u m oreafer Than &3

m = 10

(11) sum C 3 9

e D2 = getth9 sum e r 9

so PCD2 ) =

11) S let Do= gethrg sama fa res

m 6
So
( So
Let gettiny ditterenh fa@s

PPJ= 1 -PC03) = 1=
2. Stah sHcal ov Empivical Approach
Thts approach 1s based on er pei men ts and
obsebratons,

eFan event A occurs mhmeg in 'n' repe kaf

sns a q n dom enpesi nent.
Tn theiM)hng casa wn en n becomess
sutfhc ent4 |arq e, en 4ne pr ba bilihy
of happaning ot a n eent A ss fintte a n d
unique. That s ,

P CA)=1 m
n-0o

9. Subjechve Approach
Thts approach ts based on personal vews
o expectHi ons o navledge enpenenco

A. AyiomahHc or Modevn Approach

Tnts appmach rs 4ne mired Concept o
classical and stath sHcal approach.

Let S be q sample spare of a dandom

perment ad ba any e e n t wnreh rs'
d e i n ed on a m pla spare (3). TMen PcA)

s a pro ba bilh undn salisty1nq the

foll cnnq atfoms.
 PCA) 2o Aatom of Non- negatti '
() P(S) = i , Axtom of certan1y

AK1om f Totality

i)Let fz Aa---An ba aftnite or inftnite

equence of mutually ezel ustve e n t s . Then
b alom of addti H ue ho
P(A)- (Ai)
Snila s Co

P A) = P(A)
# (ouningRules
T t has 2 Fundamettal 2ules.

Addth'on {ule Multpltcahon fule

Addihon Rule
When event A occurs in
I ways ard event 6
o cur 1n n2 woys qnd
they are hen mutualy
exelusive, then event A ox (at leas one
event) con occu7 1n
(1+a woys,

**
 S Red and 6 B]agk
SHanmp)e: A baq comta)ns
c a s e S oS
tota1 numbes o f
loalls h e n the St611.
Blac ball is
e h e s Red o

MulhghcatHon Rule
A OccurS in ni ways and event S
w n e n event
H and
hen boh events
6 Ceure n 2 C y e,4
can OcCUTs}mult-aneauly n n1 a )ways

Aample: On Yollna two

dree s im ultaneans
and
Ht hns 6 poseble o u t c o m e s
d1e

Seccnd dre blso has G pess) ble

6utcome
Then he foa possilde outcome is d 6 36

Bastc Methode of (gunhng Rule

2 Metods

Permutahon CombinaHon
esmutatlon
Permutahom means a angemen t.
T n permutahon, 4Wae posi tien oer r d e r
objects play tna nle.
n tta number oL dtfterent obj ecs
a b j e cts tnak Oe fo be arang ed cmorig n

TMen

(n-71
Fo epeated cas es, the pesmututton af nn

objects in ohich P 9 qnd s mes dbje ets

axe repeated is
ghen b.
n!
Permutahon =

1.g1.
PL1-
Erample1 (#ss1nment 1
I n how many ways the word STATISTICs'
can be arahged 2
3
T- 3

6
C0
3!3 2
5oOD wayg
Thexet ore te uword aan be ananged 1 SY CO
 2079 0120

Sunday
(ombnatHon (=Selecion
nEoty ohjects
to be seect ed
Y> numbey of abjets

Tn combinahon, ordey 0 psikon of objteS

ole.
does nbt
platy
( ) 0Y C(M3
notation: 'C, o

C
(n-3)!y!

Example1 : A bon contdins 4 cohste and 6 Red bal;

Two bals are dtalon at randem mannes m
ne b o TM en And out the prbabiliy haf
ooth balls ave yed ?

ven
umbey of ontte balls = 44
red ball s = 6
number of
TH1 balls a 9+6 = J0

balls be drawn 1n2

0 uk of o balts, 2 can

S0 Pnhaushve Cases (n) ((2

u5
K
botn balls yd
e E= ttng

out of 6 ped bats, 2 (an be drown in 6Csays,

15
(m)= 6(2 =

.favoura ble
coscs

both be)s r d
+ne pfoba billhy qett1y
pen
E) =

Eample 2:
A bag Cotains 15 1 chips co Hh 5 defe«hves . f o
Tandom s0mgle of 3 chips is drnwn from the baq,
tmen wnd+ 1s the pro ba bilt h that

() all ae defectHveg
l) fup e detecHveg
(1i) One deteche
(N no deteahe

ch1ps = I5
5 l number Ic
5
nuwber of defecnve chrps =

number of non-d fechve chps - S =|0

OU15 chups, 3 can be drawn in 3 ays.

5C3
So euh0US Bve caOS (n) 5 455
s( 5 t e t 6 = 9ett08 at are defechves
Odt of s detechve chups,3 an be drdon in Sz ay5
30) fovourdble cuses (m) 3 10
Aen, tna grababi lity of getting an det eahve
eps p(E) =
 defecHves
hso
et E, = q6mng ard na
S heoo
dePchves
et
(1:.gettug
eohy
defethre) I(
-Y PEa)
(E2) P (1mg
hwo
nodèeo
n
dra on
Pgain)

be
ch1pS ,2 can
ouyof S defecHv

ways. sC 0

PCgettmag Mo detech es 455

S1mleyly
u t 10 n0- defect ve chps, 1 (an be ddrawn
ra on in
10Cways.
(OC 0
So M
P ( t g i non-dofeche)
=
= SS

v6U
00
Fa) = s 20702S

+ Ez=qcHng 1 detech ve
(1e-getn ng 1 defech? and q erug
2/
n on-detech e

.PE3) P[gesnng 2 defech) x? (9erHny 2 nn,

dteche
 1 (on be 5C1
dro wn i n Sc
out of 5 detoche chps,
way9,
SC 5
Plgetrng 1 dey noh) = =
955

1mlory, 2 can be drawn in

6ut 16 ncm def eeHve dips,
Ot
1OC, ways.
m5 OC2 4S
s0,
P(4enng 2 non-defechve ) = -

P(T) 32811

v) say Let Ey detec hves

gethng no
n u n -dteck e)
( e t p g all
in
defeeh ve be draLom can
So)
So)Bu4 of 1 n on-
10C2 120

pley
 4
A lot of 1c chips af 10 odd
Eaamle3:
and 2 w4h mojor defet1S.
o defechs trd 07 Me la
ae s e l e c t ed ranel oml H
2 chips
proba bilhhy that
:
wha+ Is the

() a least 1 h1p is q 0od ?

c

a r e tod
(h) 0o hips c

So 9yen 10
of goed dmps
=

number
42 6
of bad
number o h1ps = 16
0t 6 =
Total number af chrps =

selecked i
seteched
o n be
2 chmps
7C chmps ,
14
0 ut of
C , ways. = 20
(n) = °
cahaus Hve
cases
Ie.

qetttng at leas+ t Chy gvod chp.

Let En bo chp or

(igtn9
t gnocd chnp and
g8d dn?s
1 0 C , ° r t. °C2 10C2 10S
0S
Snfavure
caspg
(m) =

P(E1) = = ans
20
(et 2 qetnngno vod chips.
se
(i1) so bad cnp9)
tte fethng a
m

P(ta)= /5 a
120
Eaampe 4:
f a bon coptanns 5 qvod TC ch»ps Ond 2 S detecti ve
chips, an 12 ehps ane selec od at ranelom. what
s ne prob alsilty thct+ at least one chip S
Aef eohve 2

pumber pod 7C dh1ps 75 =

numbeybf dejeohve cmps 25 =

Tota num ber af eups 7S 2S = = [O0

0Utf 100 70 cmps , 1n chmps can be selected 1n

S0 exha us) ve cass (n)= (00 C2

Lek Ei qetthng detech ve cmps
no

(te.ail cwps Good )

m *5 C12
So P ( ) =
0-024
o0 2
e 9ethng at leagt cne chnp detoche
(eo) = 1- P(Ei) =1-0-024 8 =0-9.75
 Hs1mmenE):
From a group o4 1s chess playe1s 8 ae selecte
ho repres ent"a group a-+ a convention, wnaf 1s
gmup nclude 3
proba bilhty thaf +ne sefected
out of A kest pioyers în We qoupP

ven
wtal number of choss pl ayers =1L5
number of best pl0yec = 7

humey of órdinay players S-Y= °11

can be
te Out of JS chess players, 3 players.
sel ected in C way5.
'SCg 6 43 5
So) Pnhaush ve cases (n)

Le netttng 3 hest players

3 best players and 5 ordia
(7egetthng players,
Sen Vo.C4favouravie ( m) = 4c,. Cs = 1848
cases

Hence the fo ba bi hly ma the selected qmup

tnetude 3 ut o 4est payers p(E)=
 2039 o9123
wednesd ay

H Laws o o bability
(i) Pdclition Low

o) Multi plrcation Law

Additton Law
8 hwo mvhally enclusive eents- Then
)Let A and ane
he pobabl hy getmng either A ov 3 (16.at
east one eent) is gl en b

A
PCB)

P orB) P(AUB = {A)+ P0)

Simlasly ts f»B and C,
erclus) ve e e n
foy thre mutua y
PCHUBUC) = PCA) + P(B) +PCC)

et and 8 ae non-muually eaclusive eventS

Then
he prbobilhy of g etInq ot least one eent
(elther A ox B or both) ia qiven oy

PLAUB)= PcA)+ PCB)-P (An B)

dcurence of beth
UPnts

PB)
pr A)
PAnB)
 Srmlanlyhe na)- mupla
l y enclus)ne
ennts
FB

1
and C, P()-
P(A DI)-
P¢B) + P(B) + PMAnBNc)|
PcUBUC)
=
plBnc) +
P(Anc )-

Muthphcahon law Th en h
evniS .

independent
and B ave tuo and B is
() Let A both
events A
gethng
p bbility of
g1tn by
P(ROB) pCA).PB)

e n n t s . Tmen he
pendent
and ave hwo de is
) et A botn
events A and
And
getting
pe bability of
gaven by
PCAn8)= PlA). P(B/A)

aso) pcnb) = P B). p(A/B)

eventt A
tbhe p (A1B) poba bilihy gemnA
+na evn B has alheaddy
n
oCtuno d.

alea dy oc cured
event P has

LTn1s ts ealled Cond1h ona) prba bjl sty.

Enomple 1: pobabilib t h a t a neo atrpost wi11
The
i ts efho
its design, award for
get an
awatd for
mateyials and award foy bo tn I s
ent use of
Then And tne
0-16, 0-2 4 cand -11 espech vely.
that t n e new ofrport aet atleast-
pro babikhy
one avard. Pso twh4t fs t h e prob erbili
hat it wj)l ^et only one
of awu awa rds 7

Let
= qeètmg award (7 dosim
award vs efhcienh use of
9 etH7ng
materiqls

T en
we also have,
P CE)= 0-16
P CE2) = 6 2 y

PEnE2)=0-)|
oqethng a)eagt o E qwordd
bd the probabihby
PCEInEz)
PlAUE)=P(E) + PCEL)
6-16+0 2 - 0 - ' = 0.29 ans

on
¢y cne o huo duasds
the prondbilty oy 4cthng
Ez only)
y cne o too awgrd) f(¬a nty =

PE1 ony) + P (E-n on1y

fC)- P(En ea) + 9c¬a )-
PCEne2)
0 l6- 0-11 0.2y- 0-1)
mple 2: me probabjh that a cOn}zac
get
plumbing contract ts and the preba bil1y dMa4
not electrtc (onkact
ts If 1ne
CO11 qet an

le ast one contract

ta
4
P0b abili of getthng at S
then sha+)s Hhe prrbabihty 9etn9 bo th
con ra CHs ?

Ven
antract
et E1 = getthng a plum bing
an electric contract
F2 9ettng

Then, we allo ha

P(E)= -

poba bil 4 9tthng betn ccn racte P(EGn e2) 1.

ven by
PlEz) = ?(E1) t ra)-}l6 n

PC60fa
6T)
PEt)=*%7
Pen2) = -0-312
Eaample 3 : Ppf +he cireuit gwn below, tm e
circu 1t ts
TObabilnty of oin each relay of tne
th+ h e velays ath indepemdentH
0-7. Asau me
what 1s tha proba bihby mat a curren wI1 U
e11S betwe en h e tevm nals A and B3.
2

08
P0-
S

4
s
aye 1 2, 3, 4 and s
Hne rrlay
Let 2 and S
E =
clesing of rlay
and S
2 clus ing of relay 3,4
Snte ne relay s ane ach ng indep en denty

Ptt) P(l and

2 and s) P2 Pa. Pa
e a also vnn +nat the pobabjilth ca closing
07.
ach relay +he c1»un t s

h Pa- y= Ps
=
0-2
. P
P(a) =
0.9X0.4 X0.9= 0:3u3
A t a9am

Pa Py.Ps 0:9 * 0 . xo 0 3y2 2

P(ez) =

S CE, n ¬z )e P(dosng I and 2 and 3 ond Yand

5/
P- P,. Pa.Ps
0 - X0.9 x0.9 10.9 K0
G+63 e- 0 16%
 f1uwtng rrem A B
Me probdbilthy 4 cu men
t

I ea94 one pth

path
P(clas)mg cyat
P(aurent flcw)=

Pl61) + 9C42) -? p&2)

0 322 ans
an
posHon t
Enample4: felootng
(onstder h e flo o o
turent o
Curent or flo
eith 3 elays.
a t e a s t o ne
one
electric cireuie
t h e e ps
to Brf are achrated. t e dT ne
. T
fYom Polnt A achva
are
when the elays
clbsed path notlos
close o henn
e dG ohen
malfuncHon an& n o t
may
lays
rlays
ne relayS a c t ndlèpend

ach rat ed Suppas e h a t

and closed ppex
one anotox
e nHg of 0g0. UsHa t
0S0. what
Conen achváted olth po babilihy o f
nt toi 11 1o0 cohen
*not++he currr
ts he pdbabil
are achv ated.
me relays

A
 G losng 4 r1ay 1
Pelay 2
F 10er
clos mq y reloy 3
E3 eacm
ve also na, ebabilh closmG
Ten,
lay Is 0.90.
I.EL&JPe}= 0-90
ple)nea) 0-90

ndapes): 090
1 and relay 2 13,
So mbabilh y a4 closing relay
PLE). PCE2) = 0 5ox0 90: 0-31-
PlEnEa) =

Simvlay relay 1 and retay3 1)

probab)l clbs1ng
PlE, E3) = P(E1). P(é3) =o9 x0-9 = 0.

dosing et ay 2 and relay3 1

ppabi lh
o-K)
y(6 nE1= Pléz) . P(E8)=
=
09x0-9

S01 babi hM o q>(lossinq a l

+nva
rlays 1s,
e) P(E). PCéa). A¬z)= 0.9x0.9 X0-9
PtE nean = 0 29

yo pne probabilit o Cuen flow ushen the

elay are achvated (1., pnpab)11y 4 clusy af
eadt ene relay) 1S
P(EU¬2vC3) = P (¬)+ PlEa) + PE) - P (6,n6a)
P ( n e3) - P(é2n 3)+ P(EN&20 3 )

09404 0.9 -o. 0 ) -0 81+0.7 2g

0-999 @nS
 another nmetho d

Q1ven +at) +1e cruit

1
each *tay a
pro babi'rN O Clos1ng
0.9.
Ps =
0-9
iP P= Pa =

Tmen opensng.etay
1,2 and 3 Is
1e
proba biliy of
-0-9= o)
' )
1 T2 93
/ ).0pANIÀ

lay 11 and
and 2. qnj
6peninq l e l a y ,
| *taf 2.qn

tne probabil) y o4
= 0-0o1

p/atl open) = q-92 93= 01101XO-l

relay
Closed tss
at least m e
prbabiltH o
Te
c n e *lay
closed4)
leas+
P((uent flow)=
p(at
= 1- Plal open)
=o.999 g
=1- 0 -00 1
Assioment 3

Th eve are the e suitcheg in a colleqe nettw os K

nam ely P: and C work1ng Tnde pend enty. TM ese

hat a11
Soitches are con ftgu d m sersPc so

suoi+ches shuid be ON to have suc(esAu1

tansmi>s1on date. Tre individua) p ba bilty
tbeing suorth ON foy tese
ave
4
respechve/ Find the pmbabil y +na 4
 I) hee will
be a surressAl data tansfes
will be not Surressful data ronst O
) here

0N
E1 SwUch A being
E2Suo#ch B8 beng ON
F S UD1t¢h C being ON
we also hoe h a t ,
probabil so)t¢h A beiny ON fs n by,
P (Ej=
Simlay
pro bgbily sLo1tch B being ON 1S en
P(Ea)==14
And C bene ON 1s9ven by
proba bilhhy of cwltch
( E) =
-4
LeE, S1. = 4ettng a surressful data sansfer
1 e . a l cioithes shuld e ON)

g ehng
sutre ecAl
T us +e probabi ltty of a

daa tansfex s by
qven by,

P ) = P(EIA¬2 n¢3) =
P (é1). P(é2). P(3))
=2 3/y K/y= 0-01345
0 ) 5 0 t e S 1 9neo t
t - n n y a s u c c e s s f i l d a t a f o a n s t e r

P(S1)= P(S)= 1-0.0 9 39 s

=
0.90 6 25 aus
 20791 /
friday
Enample 1 a matieql
mathe
The odds in faeur of A solung
odds agan34 8
Poblem ave 2 to 4 and +he ohi
We pnblem ave s 7
tom
Pnd h e pnbobilhN thot he problem oe
solwd f they +ny ndependemly ?
s er,
etAselnng prblem y
B
and, = Solun9 pnblem by
Tnen e ham
PCA)=
PCB)= 7/12
soleol ts,
Yo pa bih thot the mblom wi! b a
f(AUB)= PCA) t RB) Phn9) -

PL) r(8)- PA). PP)

(2
0-4 6 2 ú
namp1a 2 :

In 94ahcs hud ends A, B ond

s qnn o
2
pmblem
colnt d r e , o n d
uwhsa chonres f 2

spech vey
thot the prb em el))
Whot 1e 4he pobabllhty
nd ependently ?
be solvd f al 4 them 4y

sLe
solunq 4na prblem by A
E
F2song +We prblem B byB
E solMnq the poblem b C

Then e have,
PEL)= P(E2J- ond. PlE): 4
14
4
tna4 * h e problem el be s o l e d is,
e pbabihty
PCE, U Ez VE3) "PCE )+ PE2) +?lE3)- P¬E,NEE)-
=

PE3) -

P{Ea n Ez) +

So
P(nm)
PGnEE) ) PCG)
/2/

P E n E2) = y 16

GUGUG)=
-9062S q
 short

Condhttona ro babiht
(mp-f s

ts haprobq bsl1ty q an o
Condhenal pobab)h
4 n a t anotnex
has
vent alead eNem
nas almad;
Ocunn9
OCcunn9 gven
o ccured. m eans tho
condihonal poo babilh
meang
tMe
words,
Inn other
o¥her
an
eot bas ed on te
orcunng
pm
ba bhy eg ewnt a t¢om P
podouS
6ccumnce

PoYe2ampe:
that a fair diG has be en 1 l d
Let s Consides
. te q v e 4he probabil1thatit
and ue ae ask ed
twas a five. Jn 4his case, hee siX eq uallytkel
be 1
Outcomes , so u Onsuex s)1
6
Suppose
Bufue ane qen the condihon h a t n e
number nlled was odd. S1n ce,therf 0e only threl
0ne e h e h ts
edd nYnbers +ma a ve pess)ble,
AVe. n t i s cose, r ansuey u o }) not be.
rothes sil
->The Condhona prbabihh getthno even t A qtven
Mat event B3 "has aldady dccured rs denotedd
by PCAIB) and ' s qven by

PA1B)= PCAnB) PB) ++O0

PLB)
Srm)one, 4he ondiHna) pobo Atne ent
biltj of
epnt A hos aleady ocrured s
donot-d
ven 4há4
PB/A) ond e jiven by,
pBM) PAnD) surhth@ PlP) ##0

Enample1: A manufachurer of a1rplan e pots knaus

tna yhe mbabjlhy is 03 tho
an
ovd ey o 1 be
0.7 7hat
e adyo7 sh1pment on Hme and 1t 1s on
an ordey wi11 be recdy foy shipment thme
and me ovder will be deliered on tme, Then
Uehat 1sthe pobabihy that such an ord er eeill
be dehveTed on hme gien that tuwa s alse reody
for shpment on hme rondiHon

Ogven Hme
t, E = order oil be re ady for shpment on

E order oll be del vered dn Hme,

E
Ten Ue haw,
PCEIJ=0.g

CEnea) = 0.4
MO e probabilm arat suc'h an order oil1 be
delhve ved 6n Hms qiren+hot twas also oady
fer sh1pment on bme ts i e n by,

PE2/) =
P (en) =
0:2-=0-875 s
0-8
 4 bad and 6 godd rubo
Etame2: A bea cetans

Hme. One
bes,\
one
2ane draun ut frm the box at-9
o
t
hem rs tested and found ho
be good. wh
ts the probobilih tha4 4he other one 1S alse
a1ss
ed ?
So ghe bad tvbes- 4
numbera4
9oood 6
446= l0
hotad numbes au vbes.

Le
G T3+ hube rs good
Scn d twbe ts hood
Then ue ha
6
f)=
alse G wa
be Seleted in
Guk y6 gwd tbes, 2
can

Puveunb'e
CoLSCS
(m) =

S1milarl4,
0uk a 10,2 can be selected in oay9
ays,
n

YcENG)= 5/4S
P E 2| f): hnh) 1S/us
0-$S 6 u9
PE) 6/10
Cnom pla 3 ,

@-
A o

uere
ushen tha elayg
aurent flouws
CnIyen tmat 2 furchened
p»b. thot etay
achvated, what ts the

Lek Lek
A CUmr0t -flows( 1-e.ar lea g: n e elay Is dsed)
B Te loy fanchened
PCA) = 0- 999

P( PIa= Pnn 8)
PB2 Sinre, B 1> thc subbe t
aA

o-9 = 0.009 os
0-999
 Coin m n
hes a fats
B andC wng. A
Assomment 4: B hm w 9
head
ng. o

one th. orna,

The frst
prba bin 4
rz es. una+ }s h e
S t a t s 4me qame,

e qame by A?

Aconmlng +egama byR

1) 1ST t3ss
4he qame by
oinning
O>
P1)= (e-A
So in 2n Aosg
yf
tMe qume
A)>onng

pss
im 3 4
# e qame by A
w'nning
ii

S0 Pm) =
/217

and So:Cm
19
noLD, Me pnbabtiy totnning g me by

PA)= P1)+ PCi1)+ P01)4

mnul a: raho
Sn 1f 1 whee ris commn
and a fs fhe fho5t teav
Sn 6 7<1
 ( =0.s 72,
(a) 2 /2
apaty f d1e,
s 91qpm ent 5: A and 8 at ernately throuw and
a nd
beforé Bthws 7
on y ne4hoW3 6
Aw A hnws 6. T
il n f he thmuwS 7 rfors
Abeqin9, cohat ts t h e chane e onning h e
A ?
qame by
die
he pessi ble ou+Comes after thnuoi ng a poia of
a lterna +ely ae
qpven by

Sonp'e (9)= S(), (h2), (13) ,(b4), (hs), ( l76/,

spare
(2) (22), (28), (219)) (25)» (2,6)
(), 2), (»3), 4 ) , (5), (6)
4), (42), (Y3), (,4), (4s)) (16),
C51) C912) , (919), (54), (SS), ( 6),
(611), 612), C613), (6,47, (615), (6,6) }
erheaush e cages ( n 2< 366
gven 4ha t , A bins f he +hmws 6 befove Bhmss

so He fawuyale cases
5S
fos A S Cm)
Simlarly Hhows 7 befbre A Yhn
wS 6.
BLonns h e
(m) = 66
So the fovourable cases prohabilthy nnn
S , p9) - 76 e game bB7
Lek by A
A
¢omng he game
6, in fyoshn
isornaghegame,vy
#
.P(i)= (1e A)
a "+hmu,
+he game y A in
1i to moing
e. , B1 A2

i))-4t)
n 3rd hmib
1.-o1nogha game by

p))()()(3)
ISs 12
36 216
> wlming the qame y A in 4M h0u

i()°(0 (21
 and So Cm.
A 13,
nbabi yO onn mg
fme 4ome by
now 4he

P(1i)+ P(U)) + PCV)+

PT)= P(1)
+

s()*a)
36
e a =1 (fs4 tem
35
copmrion aho tà) = a 216

36 2l6

S x 216
36 61

6
0.A 92 qnS
 2099)0 7 127

Sunda

5ayes' Theorm (Tnverse obabil

Statement:
Let 61E2-- *, En be 'n' mutually ercluse aLenn
Uens
o hch ts defned on sample space (S) t t m
PCE)+ 0 where i- h23,1,- - - in.

PoY any avbita event A (say) whch is he subset

Sample spate such hat PA)70tnen tMe
Yobabil gethng Er en hat event A has
lady eccurd s gen by

PE/A) P(Ei). P(A/G)

Z PIER). PLP Er)

where
PEr) pdor prbability
P Al Ei)= condchnal pnbabil1t

PEt/A)= pester l16x pr ba bilt N (updated)

 te (S)
(S) n
an d
Sinte, A 1s a su bee t of cample pa
(s) 1S pven by
Samp)e spare
U 2 U G U- . UEn
S E
Tnen
we can) n tee

A A ns

AnEUV - -. UEn
ou Ug 1n Dtsmbuh e Lao

A (Ana) u (AnE) U- - . U (An En)

eaclust ve evenis .
Snce &, E2, -

- En are mutualH
tnen (an E)(An a), - - - A t n ) are als o muhal
xclus ve eents.

fuoTaKing pobab)hy on both s1d e s

PA)= P (AnE)u (An Ez)v u(AEn) -

- -

(nG) + P (An E2) + t P(AN En) - - -

. P (A) =
PCAn E;) (Th eo rem o Total

PcA) PlEr). PC Al E:)-()

 OLO, e know Mdt
ond1horal proba bilthy
frm the def
P(AnEi) =
PTei? PA/E)
P(Er/A)=
P P)
)
Now, from eg? (1) and (1)
Ue 9et
PE). PA/ EiJ
PEiIP)
P(E). P A/ Ei)

mach1ne A1 e and eC
Ecmple 1 In g bolt factery,
ot M& p t a l
and 4o7.
Manufac Aues 2s1:, 3s. S1, 17and 2
outputs,
spechve ly- 0 utof
hetr

# bo+ fs raudn
ae defsch ve
bolts especti vely.
at random nm the pn duck anod ts found t oe
deehe. what ts the po babilhy ma T uaS
manufachured by
() machiIne A
(i) mach1e 8
(t#l) machine C
 2

manufachird by machineeA
Gbolts
machin e
2Delfts monufochied by
machin C
bolts Manufochued by
e

ha e
The uwe
225
p6) 22 = 0

0-35
PCE2) 3
PCE) 40 o-40
(C

' Pnduced bol+ Is defech ve

n®n e have
= 0-0 55

PCble2) c0-o4

PCDI E3) = 2 = 00 2
00

that tne defechve bol uas manufachred

Te prbabilIl
by A 1ss
P (E(D) = PLE). P (DIE,)

pLEL).P( DIE,) + P(G). P( Dlea ) +

P C3). PCDIG
0-2S 0-0S
-2 0-0S) 4 (0.3sx 0-0y) + (040 x0-02)
=0-012S

0-03S 0-363
)son
Ths peba bihy ma the deleckre

prachme B,
manuaum
botE was manefache

P(&/D) = Plea). P (DIE)

O 03yS

0-35 0.0 d.uo6 s

O 03 s

(H) Se

ymach in e C 9

P(Fg/0)= P62).P(DIE3)

OO 002
o 03U S

o-232 qns
Eampla2 A manufash1ring company tee/
ve uros s

pes in hre plants coi+h datly uduchon of So, 0

O00 and Lodo umts spech ely Aceording to tne
pdst erpesje nc f's non no+ me fraáton f

defechtve cutputs prduwed by tme thte plonts o*e

O.005, O-00% dnd o-01 spech uely. zta P1Pe s

Seted om the torat dally d uchon and foung
e detechve,from c h plant the defeote
1pe s ezpected t have been produeed7
 1sr plant
1Mpe pndued b He
pdured b tha 2nd plant
2ne
E2Ppe plan t
3vd plan 3Td
ma
ndurcd y
sPpe
Mm +he u e s h n
t
2000 daly
/01
S o o + lo00 prodboncn
p)pes
Totd no.
3S00 Units

So wt hae,
PlE)= S00
-13
3506
= 023 6
P(t)= 1o00
= 0$ 2
PEs)= 200 O
2 s00

D - defedtve prpe predvred

we ha,
Tenom tME queshoM ,

0.0OS
P (De) =
PD/e) = 0-000s

DIB)= O-op1
Pvobabil defeche plpe ke ng mdued by 1
Pln1,
PE1). P0/6)
PED))
PC). P(DI ) + ?(G ).P CD/¬h)+
PC).PCD/)
O-0X 0.|u3
O-143X 0.00+ (0-286 0-00s)+ o-592 a-o1)
 a 08 2
1 5 x lo-3
2 qi

3 23

Smlavly, E2)
P(Ea 10)= P(EE) p (D)
8 223 1 0

O.286 0-00 $y
0 263
S9 2 3 X (o

Daun S
EI8)= P(E3) P(DI£3)

0-5al 1o0
223 10S

= 0 6 56

Pl610) PE10).
hee, P (G10)> P(ElB)
and

to h ame
p1pes expeched
ence he defechva
been prduse d 6om ppe gA plent.
nampla 3
ave a s
are
ws
follo ws
as follo
nd I
aand
Um3 I, I
he
contet3 of
33 red
e d balls
ball3
black and
white,
2 ballss
and t ed
locE
2
white,1
3 ed ba hs
bals
bloek and
whre, S
4 and w o3
random
is chosen a t
One um be oh1te and
a n e o u n d to
lballs 0ve a uwn. They e m e fom
ome om
ba bilh tnat tey
Red. whak 19 tha pr

Uyn 1 Tmen me nave

PE) PEL)= PlG)=
d efnmma etn3

Let cha ng Um I
6-3 34
E I
E chooctng Um
I
chooschoos ing Um
M9 1 1 wmte and 1 ned ba1|
Le, choos1nq

nen

P() O-2
6 C2

2C1 C
0-33
AC2
P CPIG) = 0 -O-1 2

PCE A) =P(E). PCAJEG)

P).PCAlG)+ P(t2). p[A)4 P(B).
30.33uO 2 PCAI)
0-0663, 2 0-243
0-334A0-2)+(0 93 0-33u) +(o 3gUx0 1g 2) 0-2392
Enample 4: A gn lot of
=
delivey.
The
e
feste
feste
Fach dhps s tested before
elrable. Pr bab)ltA
testoy
itelf s no+ totaly
cohen it is ea ood is o a J saus
Me
ohip ts good u h e n it S
a cia

and he chrp ts
defea hve
A e r e ts ind t
defeche ts o . g y . Tf
tested a

tna+H
t
t b e defechve, what Is
he probabii s
aohally defeahve

sdenng 4 event
C chips acha lly aletecH e
ae

& ehrps a m achally o d

fnen we hae,

achall deteche dhps 21

e

1ally
So d chrps 0 0 ~2)7-= 937.
The efore
pCEi) 0 - 0 2
PFa) 98 - 0.9g

Le A 7ester says hp 19 defeoH ve

Then we nave

P ( A ) = 09y
C.0 S
P cAMEa)
=
I-0.9S =
 Cch»p) 9
he trsted deMre
he probab)lt that
1 h a F +he t egt
indrateg h e
h e onen
Ackechve
be defecte
ts Yenn hy,
by
chip to
(A /G/
Plt). P
Pl/A)
pE)-Pt
P)E)+ Pla) pA1E2)

99 x0-0s
0 94) (4 +
(002
0 01 8
063

02 ans
2079 j0gj07
wednesday
icathon ehan nel carrnes
Rample 5: A 8inary commun

O and 1.
datq as one
of hwe ypes deno ted by
transmitted 0 ts ecen ved
Due to notse, Semetmes
transmitHed i s e c e r ed a s 0
as 1ancd 3 omehmes
Posa qven channel, assume thaE the

probabili of 0-94 that bansmtted O s coTTe

a

cuy yeceived as
and prbabilh of 0.91 that q
brunsmttted 1 is
Comocthy ece1 ved a s 1.Pnther
asume thot the pnba bilh of 0.yS of ronsmithg
0. 7f a
sgnal ts sent then fnd tha
probabil1
hat
 U)a i s ecerved
eceled
ts
()
i)a
ao

1 ts
4ransmitied e n nAt
1

O
S
yecelve
roce,.

19 oeed
s os
that
oyen
O Is trans mt4ted
a
v)
Can ocouY
EdY
V)

defmng Me events :

Trans miH edl O

T
1
TRe Trans mtted
Recelved O

A Recelved 1
From h a queshon
me hae;
PT ) .4s

PTI) 1-0.Y5 = 0.5,5

PCR/T) = 0-9y
0.06
PCR/To)= I-0-9y=

nd PR /Ta 0:9)
Pho Ti/- 1-0-9) =0.09
)90
P(R1) 2
ue ha
P(Ton Ri) os P(TIn Ri)
P(R1)=

P(ToNR1)+ PTn R
. PCRi)
PTo). P(RI|To) +P(T). P(RilT)
X0-06 + (0-SS 70.9I)
(o.4
0.5245

i)gp(Ro) = ?
we na ve,

PCRo) =
P(To nR ) or P(TnRo)

= PCTo). PCRo|To) +PCT). P¬Ro |Ti)

(o.uS x o 94) + (o.ss x 0.09)
O.4 2 5

ii) Sp PTIR) = P(T1). P (R1/Ti)

T) P(R1/T) + PlTo). pP(RoTo)
P T) P(R, ITI) o.ss a9)
PR) O S 2 AS
094 89
 PT1 Re) =
?
P Ro/To)
P(Tol Ra)=P(To).
PRo)
= 0- 8 9s
0.45 X0.9Y
0 u22 S

(S P(T N Ro)
P(E)= P(Ton R1) or

P(TI). P(RolT,)
+
= PlTo). P(R17)
(0.Ss X 0.09)
( O 4 s Xo.0 6)
+

= 0-0 6S as

6: Stite Bayes' Th eoem. In a P°Pulato

Cnample
school
4o aveqrud e

Of worKers, suppose
9chool qradua tog ard
gaduates, So-/.
are h1gh
101- ave cellege naduat¢s.
the rmde scho) raduates
Among
ve unemployed, ameng the hnqh sch oo1
1o.
ane monog He
ployed tve
qad ua tes S1. are unem

coll ee qrad uates 2 ae unemployed,

wOY Key tS ho s en at an dlom and
eund to be anemplyed oohat is tha pm babili
fhdt he s a collnge mduate?
 defnmnq the evenG:
eroduahes
school
E being qrade
scheel araduates
E2 being h1gh
raduates
being celleqe
Es
we hae,
Then
P(E) 40 0.4
00
P(E) =
50 0-S

P(T3) =

Let, U5 being unemployed

P(Ul&) = 10 =O
o-oS
P (ul t) = =

P(UE3)= = O-02

Tneni
? (t3l U) ?
we na v
?eal0)= P[Es). P(UlG
PE). Plult)+ P(E). P(u]G) +
(o- Xo-02)
lo-1X0 02)
(O-4 X0) + (0sx 0-05)4

xto 0-02 9 8
0-0 69
 haptes and omn Variable

vortable s a mal valu ed functHon wh1ch

Random a
coith e cach outco m eg of
sascociated
andomexpeximent

awords, R.V. (R ando m Vonable) 1a

In Simple
a s +he outcomes
assochated 1 t h a
d eAne d
random erperiment.

Tt s denoted by Capital Letter s. henera l y

ue use XY, Z,- - etc.
îss
TVe value +aken by a nndom vnab le
denoted b small lett ers t e Y1Z - etc.
thee ave t o ttp es of random vana ble

Discrete andom Vanable

Gnat +aces dtscvete (1: CuntF
h te
values
Conthnunus Kandm Vanable