Workshop

Data Artificial Time Series

Description Stationary Time series, 48 observations, use 36 to build model and 12 to p

8 t 1 2 3 4
Trend - Season - High Noise
month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Original Data Value 81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5
1None 70
Manual Correction
System (DP) corrected History 81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5
Centred moving average 81.6 91.0 92.2 94.8

Time Series Plot

250 #VALUE! 250

200 200
[sales]

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

1 2 3

Time Series Centred Moving Average [t]

200
Chart Title 200
Chart Title 200
L
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.
 80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.

Correlations: 0.237 0.038

200
Lag 7 200
Lag 8 200
L
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.

Correlations: 0.055 -0.139

Lag Correlation Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016
0 1.000 81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6
1 0.237 81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5
2 0.038 81.6 97.6 93.8
3 -0.027 81.6 97.6
4 -0.010 81.6
5 0.084
6 -0.198
7 0.055
8 -0.139
9 -0.104
10 -0.061
11 0.057
12 0.905
6 to build model and 12 to predict input changes or model

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0

105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0

96.8 101.0 107.9 107.3 107.0 108.1 109.2

Seasonal Diagram Seasonal

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3Year 1 4 5
[Month] Year 4
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 CMA year 3

200
Lag 3 200
Chart Title 200
Lag 5
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180
 80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180

-0.027 -0.010

200
Lag 9 200
Lag 10 200
Lag 11
180 180 180
160 160 160
140 140 140
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180

-0.104 -0.061

Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016
95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1
105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0
82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5
93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4
97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7
81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7
81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2
81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6
81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5
81.6 97.6 93.8
81.6 97.6
81.6
put changes or model

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4

182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4

109.6 109.5 110.4 111.5 112.3 113.0 113.2

Seasonal Diagram with CMA Autocorrelation Function (ACF)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0 [Lag]

2 3Year 1 4 5 6 Year 2 7 8 9 Year 310 11 12

Year 4
[Month]
CMA year 1 CMA year 2
CMA year 3 CMA year 4
Time Series: Trend - Season - High Noise

0
Lag 5 200
Lag 6
0 180
0 160
0 140
0 120
0 100
0 80
0 60
0 40
0 20
0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0
0 80
0 60
0 40
0 20
0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0

0.084 -0.198

0
Lag 11 200
Lag 12
0 180
0 160
0 140
0 120
0 100
0 80
0 60
0 40
0 20
0 0
60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0

0.057 0.905

Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017
84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2
182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4
137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9
103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7
102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7
104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0
107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9
95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1
105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0
82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4 103.5
93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7 102.4
97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7 104.7
81.6 97.6 93.8 82.5 105.6 95.2 107.7
 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7

104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7

113.5 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.9 116.5 117.8

rrelation Function (ACF)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

[Lag]

Trend - Season - High Noise

Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018
128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6
104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7
96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8
114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3
97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9
105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3
79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7
84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2
182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4
137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7 114.9
103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7 97.7
102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0 105.7
104.7 102.4 103.5 137.0 182.1 84.9 79.0
 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3

80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3

118.1 118.2 119.9 120.8 120.3 121.1 122.5
Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018
108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8
80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3
85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6
187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2
137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4
118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8
106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7
128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6
104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7
96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3 187.8
114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9 137.3
97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3 118.9
105.7 97.7 114.9 96.4 104.2 128.7 106.3
 Test Data
1 1 1
33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2

115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2

122.9 122.8 122.6 121.3 120.5 120.5 120.8
Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019
151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2 106.8
115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2
121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6
118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4
114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5
135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7
98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2
108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8
80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3
85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2 118.6
187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4 114.2
137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8 135.4
118.9 137.3 187.8 85.7 80.6 108.7 98.8
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
106.8 123.5 95.0 116.5 125.1 119.6 133.2

106.8 123.5 95.0 116.5 125.1 119.6 133.2

120.2 120.4 122.2 125.1 130.9 135.4 147.3
May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019
123.5 95.0 116.5 125.1 119.6 133.2 146.3
106.8 123.5 95.0 116.5 125.1 119.6 133.2
99.2 106.8 123.5 95.0 116.5 125.1 119.6
98.6 99.2 106.8 123.5 95.0 116.5 125.1
101.4 98.6 99.2 106.8 123.5 95.0 116.5
190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2 106.8 123.5 95.0
124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2 106.8 123.5
151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2 106.8
115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6 99.2
121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4 98.6
118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5 101.4
114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7 190.5
135.4 114.2 118.6 121.3 115.8 151.2 124.7
 1 1
47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
146.3 212.3

146.3 212.3
163.9 212.3
Dec 2019
212.3
146.3
133.2
119.6
125.1
116.5
95.0
123.5
106.8
99.2
98.6
101.4
190.5
Workshop
Data Artificial Time Series
Description Stationary Time series, 48 observations, use 36 to build model and 12 to p

1 t 1 2 3 4
Stationary - Medium Noise
month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Original Data Value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
1None 70
Manual Correction
System (DP) corrected History 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6

Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

140 Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

120

100
[sales]

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
AE Data value Forecast in actual month Test Data

Time Series t 1 2 3 4
Select row to plot: Month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Row Data value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Select row to plot: I 1
Forecast in actual month N/A
Simple Error Measures
Forecast Error e
Absolute Error AE
Suqred Error SE
Root of Squared Error RSE

Percent Error Measures

Percentage Error PE
Absolute Perecent Error APE
- -
Root in percent of Error RSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cumulative Error Measures

Sum of error SE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Absolute Error SAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Suqared Errors SSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of squared errors RSSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Error Measures

Mean Error ME #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean Absolute Error MAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean squared Error MSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of Mean squared error RMSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Percent Error Measures

Mean percent Error MPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- -
Root of Mean absolute Percent e RMSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 to build model and 12 to predict input changes or model

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

Errors Seasonal Diagram

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
[Month]
Test Data Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Yea
[t]

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

put changes or model

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

sonal Diagram

6 7 8 9 10 11 12
[Month]
r2 Year 3 Year 4

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 Test Data
1 1 1
33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1
47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
91.3 106.6

91.3 106.6

47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
Workshop
Data Artificial Time Series
Description Stationary Time series, 48 observations, use 36 to build model and 12 to p

1 t 1 2 3 4
Stationary - Medium Noise
month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Original Data Value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
1None 70
Manual Correction
System (DP) corrected History 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6

Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

140 Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

120

100
[sales]

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
AE Data value Forecast in actual month Test Data

Time Series t 1 2 3 4
Select row to plot: Month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Row Data value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Select row to plot: I 1
Forecast in actual month N/A
Simple Error Measures
Forecast Error e
Absolute Error AE
Suqred Error SE
Root of Squared Error RSE

Percent Error Measures

Percentage Error PE
Absolute Perecent Error APE
- -
Root in percent of Error RSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cumulative Error Measures

Sum of error SE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Absolute Error SAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Suqared Errors SSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of squared errors RSSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Error Measures

Mean Error ME #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean Absolute Error MAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean squared Error MSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of Mean squared error RMSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Percent Error Measures

Mean percent Error MPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- -
Root of Mean absolute Percent e RMSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 to build model and 12 to predict input changes or model

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

Errors Seasonal Diagram

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
[Month]
Test Data Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
[t]

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

put changes or model

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

ram

8 9 10 11 12

ar 3 Year 4

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 Test Data
1 1 1
33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1
47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
91.3 106.6

91.3 106.6

47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
Workshop
Data Artificial Time Series
Description Stationary Time series, 48 observations, use 36 to build model and 12 to p

1 t 1 2 3 4
Stationary - Medium Noise
month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Original Data Value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
1None 70
Manual Correction
System (DP) corrected History 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6

Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

140 Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

120

100
[sales]

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
AE Data value Forecast in actual month Test Data

Time Series t 1 2 3 4
Select row to plot: Month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Row Data value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Select row to plot: I 1
Forecast in actual month N/A
Simple Error Measures
Forecast Error e
Absolute Error AE
Suqred Error SE
Root of Squared Error RSE

Percent Error Measures

Percentage Error PE
Absolute Perecent Error APE
- -
Root in percent of Error RSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cumulative Error Measures

Sum of error SE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Absolute Error SAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Suqared Errors SSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of squared errors RSSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Error Measures

Mean Error ME #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean Absolute Error MAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean squared Error MSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of Mean squared error RMSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Percent Error Measures

Mean percent Error MPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- -
Root of Mean absolute Percent e RMSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 to build model and 12 to predict input changes or model

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

Errors Seasonal Diagram

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
[Month]
Test Data Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
[t]

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

put changes or model

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

ram

8 9 10 11 12

ar 3 Year 4

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 Test Data
1 1 1
33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1
47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
91.3 106.6

91.3 106.6

47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
Workshop
Data Artificial Time Series
Description Stationary Time series, 48 observations, use 36 to build model and 12 to p

1 t 1 2 3 4
Stationary - Medium Noise
month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Original Data Value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
1None 70
Manual Correction
System (DP) corrected History 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6

Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

140 Time Series - Row I & Absolute Errors

120

100
[sales]

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
AE Data value Forecast in actual month Test Data

Time Series t 1 2 3 4
Select row to plot: Month Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Row Data value 100.8 91.5 102.0 96.6
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Select row to plot: I 1
Forecast in actual month N/A
Simple Error Measures
Forecast Error e
Absolute Error AE
Suqred Error SE
Root of Squared Error RSE

Percent Error Measures

Percentage Error PE
Absolute Perecent Error APE
- -
Root in percent of Error RSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cumulative Error Measures

Sum of error SE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Absolute Error SAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sum of Suqared Errors SSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of squared errors RSSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Error Measures

Mean Error ME #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean Absolute Error MAE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Mean squared Error MSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Root of Mean squared error RMSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Mean Percent Error Measures

Mean percent Error MPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- -
Root of Mean absolute Percent e RMSPE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 to build model and 12 to predict input changes or model

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5

Errors Seasonal Diagram

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
[Month]
Test Data Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
[t]

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016
95.5 99.7 108.4 98.0 98.3 93.7 104.5
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

put changes or model

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2

ram

8 9 10 11 12

ar 3 Year 4

12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017
98.2 103.0 103.7 121.0 99.2 104.6 101.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2

19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018
101.1 92.9 96.4 96.5 107.5 106.1 105.2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6

26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018
96.2 92.2 94.9 106.0 101.8 99.8 104.6
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 Test Data
1 1 1
33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0 105.6 95.3 102.0

33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019
100.7 98.2 106.3 95.0
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

100.4 99.0 100.7 102.2 103.0 109.5 97.0

40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

 1 1
47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
91.3 106.6

91.3 106.6

47 48
Nov 2019 Dec 2019
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#VALUE! #VALUE!
 Time Series Name Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1 Stationary - Medium Noise 100.7956 91.46645 102.0165 96.63287 95.53536
2 Stationary - High Noise 105.9627 116.3657 110.0206 90.05339 108.5664
3 Trend - Medium Noise 101.3956 92.66645 103.8165 99.03287 98.53536
4 Trend - High Noise 106.5627 117.5657 111.8206 92.45339 111.5664
5 Season - Medium Noise 75.79561 71.46645 84.01653 86.63287 89.53536
6 Season - High Noise 80.96274 96.36573 92.02055 80.05339 102.5664
7 Trend - Season - Medium Noise 76.39561 72.66645 85.81653 89.03287 92.53536
8 Trend - Season - High Noise 81.56274 97.56573 93.82055 82.45339 105.5664
9 Trend - Season - Multiplicative - 175.369 183.844 183.259 198.768 193.117
10 Trend - Season - Multiplicative - 161.0527 189.0692 200.2134 193.5115 196.4027
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
99.737 108.3605 98.04851 98.27646 93.68346 104.5424 98.18232 102.9923 103.6826 121.0467
99.64631 112.4649 100.8679 101.9975 95.53892 110.3757 94.86962 102.1013 90.5565 114.6588
103.337 112.5605 102.8485 103.6765 99.68346 111.1424 105.3823 110.7923 112.0826 130.0467
103.2463 116.6649 105.6679 107.3975 101.5389 116.9757 102.0696 109.9013 98.9565 123.6588
91.737 99.36054 97.04851 93.27646 95.68346 124.5424 178.1823 77.99231 83.68258 103.0467
91.64631 103.4649 99.8679 96.99751 97.53892 130.3757 174.8696 77.10128 70.5565 96.65879
95.337 103.5605 101.8485 98.67646 101.6835 131.1424 185.3823 85.79231 92.08258 112.0467
95.24631 107.6649 104.6679 102.3975 103.5389 136.9757 182.0696 84.90128 78.9565 105.6588
189.907 202.932 199.276 201.226 214.285 228.947 289.951 179.635 189.212 189.986
183.7712 200.0808 224.9961 178.395 228.1567 228.0663 281.3235 184.23 183.5953 178.018
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
99.21806 104.5819 101.2253 101.0853 92.90472 96.44722 96.53575 107.4824 106.1153 105.225
98.10515 110.7007 93.64005 101.7968 117.7405 98.65586 103.6569 103.521 93.36115 95.68718
108.8181 114.7819 112.0253 112.4853 104.9047 109.0472 109.7357 121.2824 120.5153 120.225
107.7051 120.9007 104.4401 113.1968 129.7405 111.2559 116.8569 117.321 107.7612 110.6872
89.21806 98.58191 93.22534 92.08528 91.90472 91.44722 98.53575 127.4824 186.1153 80.22501
88.10515 104.7007 85.64005 92.79682 116.7405 93.65586 105.6569 123.521 173.3612 70.68718
98.81806 108.7819 104.0253 103.4853 103.9047 104.0472 111.7357 141.2824 200.5153 95.22501
97.70515 114.9007 96.44005 104.1968 128.7405 106.2559 118.8569 137.321 187.7612 85.68718
192.558 203.940 198.117 202.842 210.682 206.185 217.536 238.745 297.203 184.151
200.7286 205.2213 203.6284 191.2099 215.4807 217.762 200.4849 228.8797 311.442 194.3491
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
96.19946 92.22151 94.85016 106.04 101.8177 99.83864 104.5798 100.7252 98.24155 106.2903
84.97439 110.4721 91.98607 123.9995 104.2184 108.9936 103.1171 101.0488 128.7749 83.66694
111.7995 108.4215 111.6502 123.44 119.8177 118.4386 123.7798 120.5252 118.6415 127.2903
100.5744 126.6721 108.7861 141.3995 122.2184 127.5936 122.3171 120.8488 149.1749 104.6669
76.19946 74.22151 84.85016 100.04 93.81771 90.83864 103.5798 95.72522 100.2415 126.2903
64.97439 92.47209 81.98607 117.9995 96.21843 99.99364 102.1171 96.04884 130.7749 103.6669
91.79946 90.42151 101.6502 117.44 111.8177 109.4386 122.7798 115.5252 120.6415 147.2903
80.57439 108.6721 98.78607 135.3995 114.2184 118.5936 121.3171 115.8488 151.1749 124.6669
193.105 190.898 202.670 209.386 215.579 209.996 222.544 208.444 214.365 235.862
191.2836 185.9753 198.5584 215.091 191.7771 216.5315 207.1628 209.0033 219.87 237.4425
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
95.00472 105.6357 95.30346 101.9715 100.4456 98.96308 100.653 102.1795 103.0005 109.4668
88.85866 104.18 95.79173 93.7673 92.80616 104.9094 77.80534 99.65047 99.66018 97.60698
116.6047 127.8357 118.1035 125.3715 124.4456 123.5631 125.853 127.9795 129.4005 136.4668
110.4587 126.38 118.5917 117.1673 116.8062 129.5094 103.0053 125.4505 126.0602 124.607
175.0047 80.63573 75.30346 83.97152 90.44565 92.96308 92.65299 93.17947 102.0005 104.4668
168.8587 79.18005 75.79173 75.7673 82.80616 98.90939 69.80534 90.65047 98.66018 92.60698
196.6047 102.8357 98.10346 107.3715 114.4456 117.5631 117.853 118.9795 128.4005 131.4668
190.4587 101.38 98.59173 99.1673 106.8062 123.5094 95.00534 116.4505 125.0602 119.607
325.662 194.892 197.437 206.485 214.609 214.273 213.148 216.038 225.032 217.008
306.7601 192.2005 207.3471 214.6114 216.3918 228.7807 223.2443 210.7408 221.0256 225.4877
Oct Nov Dec
96.95194 91.33303 106.5582
103.5523 98.10811 103.4537
124.5519 119.533 135.3582
131.1523 126.3081 132.2537
98.95194 111.333 186.5582
105.5523 118.1081 183.4537
126.5519 139.533 215.3582
133.1523 146.3081 212.2537
230.429 248.026 327.109
227.7041 257.029 346.2981
 Outlier Strength 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Time Series Name Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
1 None
2 Outlier - Start 100%
3 Outlier - Middle
4 Outlier - End
5 Outlier - Start & Middle 100%
6 Outlier - Start & End 100%
7 Outlier - Middle & End
8 Inlier - Start -100%
9 Inlier - Middle
10 Inlier - End
11 Inlier - Start & Middle -100%
12 Inlier - Start & End -100%
13 Inlier - Middle & End
14 Level Shift - Short
15 Level Shift - Long
16
17
18
19
20
 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

100% 100%
100% 100%
 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

100%

100%

100%

-100%

-100%

-100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

100%

100%
100%

-100%

-100%
-100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
 1.00 1.00
Nov Dec

100% 100%