Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing http://journalppw.

com
2022, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2298 – 2318 ISSN 2587-0130

From Soft Power to Hard Power: China in the Arabian Gulf

Cuneyt Yenigun
Professor, Director of International Relations and Security Studies Graduate Programs, Founder Head of Political
Science Department, College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University, Oman,
[email protected] , [email protected]; ORCID No: 0000-0002-1258-5582.
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iUQ1Q1gAAAAJ&hl=en&authuser=1

Abstract

During the Cold War, the Gulf countries and China were on different pacts. Although China began to
establish relations with the West after 1978, the Gulf remained cold to China for ideological, political,
historical, and possibly religious reasons. Following the discovery that these differences do not impede
West’s economic relations with China, the Gulf began to establish economic relations with China in the
last two decades. All Gulf states have military agreements with the UK and the US. However, negative
developments between the Gulf and the West, such as decreasing demand for Gulf oil, OPEC+ refusing oil
production in order to increase demand, the European Parliament’s suspending GCC-EU institutional
relations, human rights, and political critics from Euro-Atlantic zone countries, have pushed Gulf countries
to the awaiting China. Over the last decade, China has been economically rising in the Arabian Gulf through
FDIs, investments, economic agreements, and China's massive demand for Gulf oil, industrial goods, and
military industry with the Gulf being the world's largest importing region. These economic ties help China
and the Arabian Gulf establish international, security, and political ties. Today, China is a soft power in the
Gulf, challenging the US as the world's hegemon power, at least economically, but it is clear that through
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), security agreements, and
projected military bases in the region, it will soon become a hard power. The major point is how the US
will react to it. Will the US take aggressive measures against the challenger China, or will it implement
some captivating projects for the Arabian Gulf countries, or let the China and the Arabian Gulf to expand
their relations?

Keywords: Arabian Gulf-China Relations, Economic Security, Gulf Studies, CPEC, Chinese Political
Economy, US-China Competition, Gulf Security.

1- Introduction: Economic and Military and natural resources) and soft power
Rivalry of the US and China in the World (Governmental skills, diplomatic skills, national
Stage morale, and dominant culture) components should
be equal or higher than the following challenger
Today international system without a doubt is a
(great) powers and its allies and bandwagons’
unipolar system and the United States is the
cumulative combination. Therefore, the US
declining sole hegemon power and the leader of it
economy, military, population, etc. is not higher
(at the moment). In rhetoric, hegemon power’s
than Russia and China. That is why; the US now
hard (economy, military, county size, population,
is called “declining” hegemon power, but still

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2299 Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing

hegemon power. Hegemon power should reach recent future. Current data shows that China is
everywhere militarily and economically which is going to catch the American economy, when we
going on today. In theory, “challenger” to the look at the growth rates, in 2032. According to
hegemon power too, within the international almost all Asian scholars, the Chinese economy is
system should reach any part of the world by all likely to surpass that of the US in either 2028 or
meanings of hard and soft power components. In 2029 a new study by the Japan Center for
addition to that, trends, and figures should also Economic Research shows.
show that the challenger power would catch the
hegemon power’s capacities and capabilities in the

Figure 1: Nominal GDP of Selected Countries, 1995-2035.

Source: Uehara, (2020); Japan Center for Economic Research (2020)

As seen above figure, Chinese nominal GDP rates, find the same year of catching the Chinese
catches the American GDP in 2028 with the level growth to the US. For example, Knoema also
of 29. The other followers in Asia, India and Japan calculates that China will catch the US in 2028 in
are in competition in low level comparatively to the following figure.
two giants. Some other scholars with the different
calculation technique, based on the exchange

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Cuneyt Yenigun 2300

Figure 2: GDP Based on the Exchange Rates Comparison (1980-2027)

Source: Knoema, 2022

Perhaps even more notable is that total GDP is to pass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy in
predicted to then double to $200 trillion by 2035. 2030 (Rapp and O’Keefe, 2022). Especially realist
In part, the current surge reflects how effectively scholars claim that the US will not watch China
the world’s biggest economies have adjusted to taking its seat from itself and will take necessary
the pandemic. However, rising inflation, actions to prevent it.
particularly in the US, is playing an even bigger
role in driving up GDP right now than true organic
growth. According to Fortune, China is expected

Figure 3: World Economies Ranked by Projected GDP (1990-2040)

Source: Center for Economics and Business Research, 2022; Fortune, 2022.

As seen in the above figure, Indonesia and Russia enormous drop is seen by Italy. China and the US
make the biggest jump in GDP, while an change their ranks in the last eight steps, which are

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2030, according to the Center for Economics and the world GDP but caught and passed the US and
Business Research. This study was published in the 27 countries of the European Union (EU) by
Fortune in January 2022. rising 10.7% despite the pandemic. While the US
had 19.8% of the world share, it decreased to
When we look at the two last decades, 2002 and
15.8% in 2022 while the EU dropped from 19.9%
2022, it is seen that China duplicated its share of
to 14.8% in the last decade.
global GDP (PPP, US Dollars). 20 years before,
China was less than half of the US with 8.1 % of

Figure 4: China, US, EU: Share of Global GDP 2002-2022 (PPP, Current USD)

Source: Richter (2022); Statista and IMF (2022)

So, although the EU, was the world leader in GDP as the second largest recipient. While the annual
global share 20 years before, it became the biggest inflow of FDI around the globe decreased by 42%
loser in comparison with the US and China, with compared with 2019, developed countries were hit
its 27 members after Brexit. The US is the second hardest, seeing a decline of 69%. When we take
loser with its 4% drop and still has 15.8% shares look at the FDI Inflows, it is seen again as a
of the world. But the winner of the 20 years is hegemon power the US is taking the first rank and
China with its vast population and vivid economy. China comes right after it as a challenger power of
the international system as seen in the following
When it comes to Foreign Direct Investment
figure.
(FDI), as seen in the following figure, the
coronavirus pandemic majorly upset the flows of
FDI in 2020 – with the result of China‘s big jump

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Cuneyt Yenigun 2302

Figure 5: FDI Inflows Top-10 Countries, 2022 (billions of USD) [2021-2022]

Source: UNCTAD, World Intestment Report, 2022

When it is investigated total outflows of the world join world decisions. And also it shows very easily
US comes again as the top FDI source to the why Germany has been the leader of the EU (and
world. İt is a normal result of being a hegemon also explains economically about Brexit). When it
power of the international system. Hegemon comes to the outflows China comes as the fourth
power should reach anywhere in the world and power in the world with a very dramatic jump to $
benefit from the world at a reciprocal level of its 145 billion right after Japan as seen in figure 7 in
allies and its national and hegemon interest. the following.
Germany comes a second and it explains explicitly
the 5+1 (+1) mentality of the other great powers to

Figure 6: FDI Outflows Top-10 Countries, 2022 (billions of USD) [2021-2022]

Source: UNCTAD, World Intestment Report, 2022

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2303 Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing

When it comes to military power, naturally the second rank in terms of a $126 billion military
hegemon power, the US, is the top country in the budget, 69 submarines, and manpower of almost 3
world in the total ranking. Russia comes second, million active military personnel.
because of tanks as a land power and nuclear
weapons. China comes third but it should be in the

Figure 7: Top-10 Militaries in the World, 2022

Source: Global Fire Power, 2022.

In accordance with the above information and military came to the region in 1981 by granting a
figures, It is easily seen that the hegemon power military base in Masirah Island, Oman. Although
of the unipolar international system is been there was no foreign military in the Gulf at that
automatically changed by China as a challenger time, Gulf had already chosen its side in the pact
power in the components of economy and military of the capitalist one.
powers.
So, all Gulf economies were in contact with the
Western side and there were no economic or
diplomatic relations with the communist USSR or
2- Economic Competition between
China in the ideologically divided world of the
Hegemon and Challenger in the Arabian
cold war. China’s diplomatic and economic ties
Gulf
did not start with the West until Deng Xiaoping
When the same rivalry comes to the Gulf region, started “economic modernization” in 1978. It was
almost the same trend is seen especially in the simply changing the nature of communism
economic situation. The US was the main and drastically and opening its economic borders
strategic partner of the Gulf until the recent past. reciprocally with the world. West started its
When Mao’s communist coup happened in 1949, diplomatic and economic relations with China.
all Euro-Atlantic zone halted their economic and China had been interested in Gulf oil and gas in
diplomatic relations with China. During the Cold those years specifically in 1979, but the Gulf
War, all Gulf countries followed the West as the countries were cold and hesitant to establish any
secondary pact followers. British military and ties with China. After the cold war collapsed and
forces left the Gulf region in 1971 and the US started the unipolar international system China

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Cuneyt Yenigun 2304

could succeed to establish diplomatic ties with the already become the largest export market for GCC
Gulf states in 1993. countries since 2012. Now in the last decade,
China is increasing its economic relations with the
Establishing and mini-steps developing economic
Gulf countries with silent but strong steps
ties took almost a decade and China’s intensive
gradually. All Gulf countries today joined China’s
demands found a positive answer from the GCC
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and for China, all
side in 2004 by establishing the China-Arab States
Gulf countries became “strategic economic
Cooperation Forum (CASCF). After that, trade
partners” (Interesse, 2022)
between China and the Arab League nations
increased from US$36.7 billion in 2004 to Collaboration between China and the GCC is
US$145.4 billion in 2010 (Interesse, 2022). After based on China’s ultimate need for energy. Today
the mutual benefits from the economic Saudi Arabia provides 17% of China’s oil imports
development, Arab and Gulf states also started and making Saudia Arabia a top crude oil supplier.
further steps to establish tighter economic Qatar also is a major natural gas exporter to China.
relations with China. In 2012, China and the Arab Qatar signed a bunch of long-term energy
countries established the Higher Council for agreements with Chinese companies at the end of
Energy Cooperation (HCEC) (Interesse, 2022). 2021 after placing its first order for vessels
carrying Chinese liquefied natural gas (LNG) for
US$762 million in October 2021.in November
2.1 China’s Hunger for Oil 2022, Qatar Energy Minister announced that a 27-
year natural gas agreement was signed with China
During the George W. Bush government term, a (Yeni Akit, 2022). This agreement is the longest
revolutionary project was launched to ensure US’ gas supply agreement in the Qatar history, most
energy independency, the shale oil project. The probably in the Gulf area, about the LNG industry.
purpose of the project was to develop a national Within this agreement, Qatar Energy will supply
energy policy for the future of the US. Bush was China's SINOPEC with 4 million tons of LNG
saying in his speech “US was addicted to oil which annually for 27 years. Qatar is still the top LNG
is often imported from unstable parts of the exporting country in the world and has been
world." (Rapier, 2021). According to the majority supplying LNG to China since 2009. In addition
of the energy scholars and commentators, it was a to it, a big portion of oil exports from Kuwait, the
dream, maybe because of this reason, and the Gulf United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman are sold
state did not prepare itself, but in the end, in 2016, to China in the last few years (Interesse, 2022). In
his project became very successful in reducing US 2021, China bought around 83 % of Oman’s total
dependence on foreign oil. Necessary regulations oil exports, and the other GCC states do business
such as the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and 2007 with a variety of trade partners (Interesse, 2022).
mandates enabled the 17 billion gallons per year According to the US Department of Commerce,
ethanol industry in the US that still helps fuel by 2030, China will import almost 80% of its oil
American needs even now (Rapier, 2021). needs, and China now importing almost half of it
It became a big shock for the Gulf countries and in (47%) from Saudi Arabia, and replaced Russia as
2016, the US became an energy rival instead of the largest oil exporter to China (Devonshire,
being a customer to the Gulf countries. 2022) previously.
Unprepared Gulf countries found a very quick
customer who was/is hungry for energy with its
enormous population, China. Actually, China had

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2.2 China’s Increasing Trade and FDIs in the region is roughly proportional to the GDP of the
Gulf Gulf countries. Those Chinese investments are
stipulating the whole Gulf region’s other sectors
China also is seen significantly in the continued
in industry and are roughly inversely correlated to
growth of the GCC’s non-oil industries. Today, in
the gross domestic product of each nation. China
2022, there is great synergy between China and
has swiftly overtaken Saudi Arabia as the
Gulf countries in several development areas such
country’s main commercial actor with bilateral
as tourism, telecommunications, renewable
trade rising from $42 billion in 2010 to $76 billion
energy, smart cities, artificial intelligence, and
in 2019. Today China continues to be Saudi
technology-oriented businesses (Interesse, 2022).
Arabia’s biggest import and export partner.
In addition to that, the Arabian young generations
(Interesse, 2022)
are gradually exposed to a growing Chinese
technology presence, from social networking China is a trading behemoth that brings substantial
applications to digital payment platforms. economic influence to its bilateral relations with
the Gulf States. In 2020, China replaced the
Investment and trade are also gradually
European Union as the GCC’s largest trading
developing between Gulf states and China
partner. The UAE is a main actor in the region for
according to the China Global Investment Tracker
the re-export of Chinese goods into the region and
by the American Enterprise Institute. Chinese
Africa, and trade between China and Dubai in the
investments and construction projects totaled
first half of 2021 increased by 30.7%
US$43.47 billion in Saudi Arabia, US$36.16
(Mogielnicki, 2022). The value of total trade flows
billion in the UAE, US$11.75 billion in Kuwait,
between the UAE and China largely plateaued
US$7.8 billion in Qatar, US$6.62 billion in Oman,
from 2014 to 2020.
and US$1.42 billion in Bahrain between 2005 and
2021 (CGIT, 2022; Mogielnicki 2022). The
distribution of Chinese investments across the

Figure 8: UAE- China Total Trends (USD billion)

Source: UAE

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Cuneyt Yenigun 2306

Ministry of Economy and Emirates NBD Total bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and
Research. China doubled also from $42 billion in 2010 to
$76 billion within a decade.

Figure 9: Saudi Arabia- China Total Trends (USD billion)

Source: Saudi Arabia General Authority for Statistics

In rhetoric, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is “open project in Pakistan. BRI, especially CPEC makes
to all nations” according to the Belt and Road possible to reach to the Arabian Gulf very shortly,
Forum for International Cooperation, the main and all the way from the China through the
partners are the close neighbors of China Malacca Strait are being bypassed in economic
geographically. Yet many of these trade and manner. It gives a huge advantage economically
investment avenues bypass the Gulf region. (and politically) to China to reach to the Arabian
Egypt’s Suez Canal and the China-Pakistan Gulf and also to Europe. Current maritime route to
Economic Corridor (CPEC) are key components the Gulf is around 8,400 nautical miles, when the
of the BRI; however, these economic nodes CPEC is used, the new route through Gwadar will
possess greater relevance for areas on the Gulf’s result in course saving 4,600 Nautical miles to the
periphery. (Mogielnicki, 2022). Through the BRI, Gulf.
China has been instrumental in the development of
the Suez Canal Area Development Project in
Egypt as well as the Gwadar Port and pipeline

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2307 Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing

Figure 10: Comparison Current and Gwadar Routes

Source: Prudent, 2022.

Today, almost all Gulf States started to align their demand human rights developments, and request
national economic development programs with some socio-cultural evolutions. At the same time,
Chinese BRI. Those include Saudi Arabia’s 2030 old allies ‘economic relations decreased gradually
Vision and Kuwait’s 2035 Vision (Interesse, with the Gulf region. China was ready and waiting
2022). Therefore, it is clearly seen China’s for an opportunity, was/is not criticizing any Gulf
economic impact started to collect fruits for the country in the last two decades, and most
Chinese but also Gulf States sides. Moreover, it importantly it has the capacity and capability to
looks like it will continue to develop gradually in launch several industrial projects in the Gulf. But
the Arabian Gulf region. maybe the most important instrument in the hand
of China is the major arms that the Gulf
intensively has been importing from the Euro-
2.3 Gulf’s Hunger for Military Industry Atlantic zone allies. Because after Iran’s
revolution in 1979, almost all Gulf states fund
On the one hand, China is the biggest energy and themselves in the potential threat of the new
oil importer in the world, on the other hand, the Iranian state’s aim. Because of this reason during
Arabian Gulf is the biggest military industry the Iran-Iraq war, Gulf took the side of Iraq. The
importer in the world. Simply they were/are the Euro-Atlantic zone was providing intelligence and
biggest supplementary economies to each other. weapons, the Gulf was providing the money, and
The GCC countries were hesitant to develop their Iraq was providing the soldiers against the
economic relations with China because they did common enemy. But after Saddam’s harsh
not want to trigger negatively to Euro-Atlantic meetings with the Gulf countries in 1981, the Gulf
zone allies. However, old friends started to countries figured out that the proxy warriors for
criticize the Gulf countries’ political situations, the Gulf were not enough and Saddam himself

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Cuneyt Yenigun 2308

could be dangerous for them after the Iran war. So, military capacities and cannot trust any friend
because of this potential threat and fear, the Gulf forever. So, in the last four decades almost all
Cooperation Council (GCC) was established first Arabian Gulf countries, instead of investing in
in 1981, then Peninsula Shield Force, the military research development in the military industry,
arm of the GCC was established in 1982. Their have become the highest major arms importers in
fear was right about Saddam, ten years later he the world according to their annual budget and/or
attacked Kuwait. This time they called their new GDP. Automatically, the world main arms sellers
military ally, the US, to help against their old became potential arms sellers to the Gulf also.
friend, the new enemy. So, from that day until
today, a new security phenomenon came to the
Gulf’s security arena: The Gulf should develop its

Figure 11: Top-10 Arm Sellers

Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, March 2022.

Almost all Arabian Gulf countries used to buy directly, Italy and Germany indirectly keep their
their major arms from the Euro-Atlantic zone military agreements and forces with the Gulf. That
allies during and the after the cold war. Strong was the natural result of the Gulf-Europe-Atlantic
historical relations with the UK put the Arabian zone allyship. But EU Parliament’s direct
Gulf countries naturally into the NATO bloc not criticizing the whole Gulf countries within the
as a member but as an de facto partner. In institutional regarding human rights and political
necessary times such as the 1979 Iran Hostage issues (Yenigun, Basoos, Hassan, 2020) and
Crisis in the US Embassy in Tehran, the Iran-Iraq gradually decreasing the need for Gulf oil after the
war, First and second Gulf wars, the Gulf was US’s shale oil project success in 2016, pushed the
always on the side of the Euro-Atlantic zone. The Arabian Gulf towards the Asian giant. It started
US replaced the UK's dominant military force in with oil and then Chinese FDIs, but most
the Gulf after 1981 and signed military and joint importantly the came to the stage of the biggest
defense agreements with five Gulf countries. In need of the Gulf: major arms.
addition to the US, France, the UK, and Turkey

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Buying a major arm system(s) is not the same as pretty much cheaper than the US arms especially
buying an agricultural or industrial products. in some specific ones. Although Chinese major
Major arms need regular maintenance, and arms sales decreased in the last 5 years, it is still
gradual training, then bring military the fourth biggest arms seller in the world. On the
rapprochement automatically (Yenigun, 2019). other hand, three out of six GCC countries (Saudi
This is the last thing that the US wants. But on the Arabia, Qatar, UAE) are the top-10 major weapon
other hand, Chinese major arms and small arms importers in the world. So, this data makes them
and light weapons (SALW) are competing with “natural trade partners” at the first glance.
the American SALW in terms of quality and most
importantly in price. Chinese major arms are

Figure 12: Top-10 Arm Buyers

Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, March 2022.

After the unipolar system started, China became counties and their MNCs to establish better
the main FDIs challenger to the UK, France and relations with China. The Gulf was so patient not
the US in Africa, Asia, and gradually in Latin to buy “communist” weapons, but after the latest
America. Unlike Africa, the Arabian Gulf was developments and global economic crisis, they
resisting not to contact its old antagonistic pact started to talk with Russia and China about the
member because of ideologic, historical, and SALW and major arms. These facts give some
(maybe) religious reasons. But the US and signals for the future decade that the Gulf and
Europe’s democracy and human rights insistence, China arms sales will be very possible. Some
global economic crisis, and gradual economic scholars predict that China’s military capacities
withdrawal from being the main partner of the will most likely be seen in the Arabian Gulf states
Gulf yielded China’s entrance to the GCC region. (Iddon, 2022), especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and
GCC countries saw that China’s and Euro-Atlantic the UAE because they already have money for it
zone countries’ differences did not obstacles to and seek to diversify their military capacities.
developing their economic relations, then the Gulf
took the lesson from American and European

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In the last five years, Saudi Arabia imported most natural resources” in such countries, only
of the weapons from eleven countries, including courageous and very powerful companies can go
China which is Saudi Arabia’s sixth-largest arms there. Those powerful companies could be
supplier. In addition to that five different countries “powerful” by their home country-state relations
have offered to develop Saudi Arabia to produce or by hiring their security entities in risky
missiles, but Riyadh has chosen China in 2021. countries. For example, many diamond, gold, and
After the demands repeatedly opposed arms petroleum companies working in Africa work
exports to Saudi Arabia for use in the Yemeni war, together with their European states to be protected
in the Western countries, major arms sales in the host countries. Their European states are
decreased to Saudi Arabia and UAE, and Saudi signing some security agreements and keeping
Arabia turned to Asia. Now, Saudi Arabia has two their armies existed the host country. These agreed
experiences buying missiles with China (Bagheri, armies help to host country to keep there in peace
2022). and play a significant role for the host and home
country but also at the same time provide a safe
area for the home state MNCs there. Therefore, the
3- Economy and Security Alignment for
benefit for the home country is shared between
China
MNCs and the home state by taxation, high
In political economy, there is a simple theory; salaries, and perhaps extra payments to the
FDIs and foreign trade charm security in the host government from the covered fund of the
country. If there is a conflict, chaos, violence, or company. Insurance rates in those countries are
a civil war in a country FDI automatically escapes tremendously high for the MNCs also. Because of
from there because nobody wants to jeopardize its security reasons, being hegemon power (should
money in a conflict place. Any war could ruin all reach militarily to any corner of the world) and
investments in a minute by a violent, illegal strategic allies of the Gulf countries starting 1981,
seizing of the physical presence assets or freezing US used to have military bases and troops in the
financial assets in banks. In 2011, many Gulf. Perhaps because of this reason, the US is
multinational companies and corporations more relaxed that China has been struggling to
(MNCs) and foreign corporations of FDIs lost enter to the Gulf, because as seen in the following
their many physical and financial assets in North figure, US military existence is dominantly high.
Africa. Some of them still claim their financial
assets from the new governments of Tunisia and
Algeria today. If there are “irresistibly attractive

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2311 Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing

Figure 13: US Military Bases and Troops in the Middle East

Source: Denison, 2022.

If the host country is complicated in security such the assistance of some host countries such as Italy,
as a high risk of civil war, home countries Croatia, Serbia and Romania. They played in
sometimes boggle to provide security there. Under piloting a wider expansion of Chinese overseas
these circumstances, if the natural resource is too police stations. China makes it legally and
attractive and profitable, MNCs hire private persuasive style; for example, signed police patrol
contractors (McFate, 2019) in the host country agreements with the Italy and working together in
such as many European diamond companies in eleven Italian cities today including Venice, and
African countries. Some MNCs working in Florence (CNN, 2022a).
conflictual areas are facing relying on corrupt or
Oil companies operating in the Middle East or
inept security forces provided to them by host
multinational corporations working in Africa are
governments, and they are turning to private
frequently hiring private security contractors. The
forces. For example, mining giant Freeport-
financial services industry hires them for tough
McMoRan employed Triple Canopy to protect its
due diligence investigations in places such as
vast mine in Papua, Indonesia, where there is an
Nigeria or Russia. Insurance companies use them
insurgency. The China National Petroleum
for political risk analysis, especially regarding
Corporation contracts with Dewe Security to
foreign country stability, nationalization of client
safeguard its assets in the middle of South Sudan’s
assets, and the likelihood of armed conflict
civil war. In addition to that, China has been
(McFate, 2019).
expanding its security points in Africa, Europe and
the worldwide. According to the CNN allegation, In addition to that, some other MNCs compromise
China operates more than a hundred police the fighting sides and sometimes with the terrorist
stations in the world. Majority of them work with groups. For example, LaFarge, the biggest French

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Cuneyt Yenigun 2312

cement company in Syria was found guilty by the By starting 2008, China deployed two destroyers
US Department of Justice in 2022 because of (Haikou and Wuhan) to the Red Sea region and
working together with the Islamic State of Iraq and one supply ship into the Aden Gulf. Chinese
al-Sham (ISIS) and the al-Nusrah Front (ANF), Marine Special Forces with attack choppers were
both were designated a terrorist group by the US. on the board (Shanghai Daily, 2008). After the
LaFarge was sentenced to pay financial penalties, BRI launched in 2013, Chinese economic
including criminal fines and forfeiture, for a total investments and international trade started
of $777.78 million (US Department of Justice, gradually with the Gulf countries. Automatically
2022). China’s interests and attention to piracy and Gulf
security were raised. Because it was the natural
In addition to the FDIs in the host country,
attention of the international trade security for
especially export and import activities require
China. As pointed out previously, Chinese FDIs
security in the host country but also in the
security in the Gulf region was not a big problem,
maritime zone(s). Because almost 98% of the
because the Arabian Gulf region is stable and one
world trade is managed by maritime
of the most secure regions in the world. But when
transportation. For example, in the last two
it comes to the international trade flow and
decades, Somalian piracy became the main issue
maritime routes Indian Ocean Region and Red Sea
for the Gulf oil transportation for the Arabian Gulf
regions were/are potential and currently risky
countries but also for the Euro-Atlantic zone
areas. Then, Chinese navy ships started to patrol
countries. For example, in 2005, the LNG tanker
the Gulf and Red Sea zones, as they embarked on
Feisty Gas was captured by Somali pirates and
several joint efforts in rescuing hijacked ships.
ransomed for US$315,000. Again, Panama’s oil
This includes the famous rescue of the hijacked
tanker, Damani Cargo was captured and
bulk carrier OS35 in the seashores of Somalia and
demanded a ransom of $50 million by Somali
Yemen in 2017.
pirates. That’s why both sides started patrolling in
that risky area to protect their international trade As China’s interests expand globally, Beijing
starting in the early 1990s. At the end of 2021, recognizes that its threat horizons are expanding
according to the UN Secretary-General’s report, concurrently; its maritime strategy must face this
joint counter-piracy efforts had resulted in a reality head-on to “protect national maritime
gradual decline in attacks and hijackings on rights and interests.” Around and within the
Somalian coasts off since 2011. However, piracy Arabian Gulf, maritime routes and some territorial
and terrorism are still under threat (UN News, disputes are still going on and the region is
2021) according to UNSCR 2608. Currently, there counted as dangerous. The following figure shows
are three international naval task forces in the the recent attacks juts in 2018 and 2019 within and
region engaging in counter-piracy operations, and the around of the Gulf.
the sides are NATO, EU, and US-led Combined
Maritime Forces including some Gulf states based
in Bahrain.

© 2021 JPPW. All rights reserved

2313 Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing

Figure 14: Recent Dangerous Events in the Gulf

Source: Solace Global, 2019.

The 2015 defence white paper painted a dark Sri Lanka, Djibouti, Kenya, and Tanzania ports to
picture of the threats to China’s overseas interests. be given importance. These port clusters would
(Tobin, 2018). Not just in the Arabian Gulf, but provide new “route options into China to reduce
even in the world, China started to discuss more transport pressure on Malacca” and avoid
engagement of the Chinese navy to protect its waterways that could be closed by adversaries
growing economic and political interest globally. (Tobin, 2018). Again, even if it is not closed,
(Tobin, 2018). In its official documents, China cruising from the Pacific to the Gulf and the West
has planned a long-term strategy to be global is too expensive because of being a very long way.
maritime power until 2049. (Yung et al, 2014).
That is why; China launched the BRI in 2013 and
The main dilemma for China’s economic and its arm, China Pakistan Economic Corridor
military aspects is the Malacca Strait. It is passing (CPEC). By CPEC, China reached the Arabian
through between the costs of two US allies and it Gulf very easily and became an indirect regional
is too long to reach the Gulf and the world market. country now. CPEC and its tip in the Arabian Gulf,
In the security aspect, if the US requests its allies Gwadar Port were constructed by China (Baig,
to close the strait in accordance with the 1982 Hussein, Yenigun, 2021). In the IOR, China has
UNCLOS regime, it could be very problematic for been encouraging the development of ports not
its navy to reach anywhere in time. Different just in Pakistan but also in Sri Lanka, and
mitigation strategies discussed this issue in several Bangladesh. It is part of China’s maritime strategy
Chinese strategy journals in the last decade. The dubbed the “String of Pearls,” linked to the aim of
main analyses focus on BRI, particularly Pakistan, restraining India, which has border disputes with

© 2021 JPPW. All rights reserved

Cuneyt Yenigun 2314

China. China has effectively gained control of the western IOR (Tobin, 2018). According to some
Southern Sri Lankan port of Hambantota, which security scholars “alarm bells are ringing” (Tweed
was developed as part of the BRI after Sri Lanka and Leung, 2018), China repeatedly states that
became unable to repay its debts (Makita and Oki, those military bases are being established to aim
2022). at deterring piracy in the Middle East maritime
routes for oil tankers, while the ports are part BRI
China also started to increase its navy and military
infrastructures (Tweed and Leung, 2018). Today,
presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) not
the Chinese and the US military bases in the
just in Sri Lanka and allegedly Pakistan but also in
following map show that although asymmetric
Djibouti in 2017 (Yenigun, Maashani, Baig,
military base relations still exist, but China is
2020). The Djibouti base lies in proximity to
increasing its existence in Asia and the IOR.
Chinese economic interests in Africa and at the
strategically important intersection of the Gulf of
Aden and the Red Sea, on the edge of the north-

Figure 15: American and Chinese Military Bases in Asia

Source: Tweed and Leung, 2018

4- Conclusion Arabian Gulf to protect its energy and trade

security. Therefore, like Sri Lanka and Djibouti,
Today, China is in the IOR and the Arabian Gulf
they will seek more military bases and
with its soft power components and its long-term
supplementary points in the region. If they will be
agreements with the regional countries. But it will
granted some more military points in the region,
need more security instruments in the IOR and the

© 2021 JPPW. All rights reserved

2315 Journal of Positive Psychology & Wellbeing

China’s soft power situation will be transformed November 2022. It is seen that the US is losing its
also a hard power in the Gulf and the IOR. This political power over the Gulf. On contrary, in
will be a dilemma for the Arabian Gulf countries Riyadh Summit in December 2022, it was decided
between economic benefits with China and to increase oil and natural gas trade with China and
security alignments with the Euro-Atlantic zone also to use Chinese currency, Yuan, between
countries. Because the Arabian Gulf is China and Saudi Arabia. After the summit and 34
increasingly becoming an economic partner to agreements, the US pointed out that they would
China but at the same time it has security not ask Saudi Arabia to choose between China and
agreements with the US, UK, Turkey, and France the US in the fields of defense, energy, and
on the other side. In addition to that, according to technology. The Organization of Islamic
realist scholars, the hegemon power of the Cooperation (OIC) also stated that the results of
unipolar system, the US has been challenged by the summit will give a new impetus to the
China, and was calculated by some realist scholars cooperation and partnership between Arab
that China will catch the US economically in countries and China (Yeni Şafak, 2022).
2028. Again, according to the offensive structural
Regarding the suspected Chinese security units,
realists, such as John Mearsheimer, China will
the US tried to “warn” the Gulf, but according to
become hard power soon in the US-allied regions
CNN, “the Gulf has flouted many warnings from
such as the Arabian Gulf. According to them, the
the US about growing partnerships with Chinese
US should not watch China’s rising and should
companies”. In 2021, Emirati officials accused the
take “necessary actions economically and
US of “bullying” them into shuttering a Chinese
militarily in those regions. Although this
facility on Emirati soil (CNN, 2022b). It is an
perspective is too exaggerated, there is no doubt
undoubted fact that “strategic partner”,
that the hegemon power is not happy about the
“ideological pact” and “unquestioned friend”
Chinese rising in the Arabian Gulf.
terminologies are not being bought in the Gulf
China is not only getting closer to the Gulf now. Forcing, political pressure, warning, and
economically but also politically and with security showing the stick are also not rational American
manners. Chinese President Xi Jinping in his visit politics for the Arabian Gulf anymore. It is seen
to Saudi Arabia in December 2022, in the Riyadh that the US does not have additional instruments
Declaration”, a consensus was reached between to attract the Arabian Gulf states economically,
China and Arab countries on deepening even it does not have the intention to do it after the
cooperation in different fields and strengthening shale oil production in 2016. Again, it looks like
the strategic partnership. In the statement, it was the US interest in the Arabian Gulf is not at the
noted that the Palestinian issue is the main issue of same level as its interest during the Cold War and
the Middle East and that a just and permanent this interest has been decreasing gradually every
solution to this problem should be found based on year. The US and the Euro-Atlantic zone should
the two-state solution model, unlike the Trump promote more liberal and win-win projects
Administration. The declaration mentioned the specifically for the Arabian Gulf to compete with
need to act jointly at the international and regional the towering Chinese projects if they have
levels to find a solution to the crises in Syria, intention to win the hearts and minds in the Gulf.
Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Somalia, and Sudan.
The main key point for the future of the Arabian
Biden asked the Gulf to increase oil production to
Gulf is what the US is planning to attract
alleviate the energy crisis in the West, however,
economically its allies in the region in the next
the OPEC+ group rejected it and decided to reduce
decade. Regional states are still close to the US in
its daily oil production by 2 million barrels as of

© 2021 JPPW. All rights reserved

Cuneyt Yenigun 2316

a political manner, but they could not resist ina-overseas-police-stations-intl-

Chinese attractive economic instruments, cmd/index.html
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pandemic’s negative reflections in recent years. carpet for China’s Xi, in a not too subtle
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