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Bin N Poisson Distributions Assignment

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26 views3 pages

Bin N Poisson Distributions Assignment

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lbwnb.68868
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016

National Junior College


2015 – 2016 H2 Mathematics
Binomial and Poisson Distributions Assignment
[Total marks: 25 marks (45 minutes)]
25
1 Along a busy expressway, the number of cars that exceed the speed limit is assumed to follow a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 3.8 cars per day.

Find the probability that in a randomly chosen 3-day period, there are between 9 and 24 cars
that exceed the speed limit. [3]

During a period of n consecutive days, every car driver whose car exceeds the speed limit is
each fined $70. Find the value of n for which the probability of a total fine of $2940 being
collected is the greatest. [3]

Q1 Solution
Let X be the number of cars that exceeds speed limit on a 3-day period.
i.e. X ~ Po 11.4
P 9 X 24
P X 23 P X 9
= 0.701
Let Y be the number of cars that exceeds speed limit in a n-day period.
i.e. Y ~ Po 3.8n
Y1 poissonpdf 3.8 X , 42

For P 70Y 2940 P Y 42 to be the greatest, using GC,

Max. probability occurs when n = 11.

2 (a) In a certain country, the mean number of people convicted of robbery in a week is 2.
Use a Poisson distribution to find the probability that in a given month consisting of
four weeks, at least 9 people are convicted of robbery. [3]
Explain why the Poisson distribution may not be a good model for the number of
people convicted of robbery in a year. [1]

2015 – 2016 / H2 Maths / Normal Distribution Assignment Page 1 of 3


National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016

2 (b) In a certain country, the number of rainy days in June is observed. You may assume
that the weather on each day is independent of the weather on any other days.
(i) State, in context, an assumption needed for the number of rainy days in June
to be well modelled by a binomial distribution. [1]
The probability that it rains on any given day in June is p.
(ii) The probability that it rains at least once in a sample of 15 days in June is
0.96482. Write down an equation in terms of p and hence find the value of p,
correct to 1 decimal place. [3]
(iii) Given that p 0.25 , what is the most likely number of rainy days in June
(consisting of 30 days)? [2]
[2014 MJC Prelim/II/11]

Q2 Solution
(a) Let X be number of people convicted of robbery in a month.
X Po 2 4
X Po 8
Required probability=P X 9
1 P X 8
0.40745
0.407 3sf
The MEAN number of people convicted would not be constant every week
because during holiday seasons/economic downturn/recession/tourist peak
periods, there could be an increase in robbery cases.
(b) The probability that it rains is the same for each day in June.
(i)
(ii) Let X be the number of days, out of 15, that rains.
X ~ B(15, p)

P X 1 0.96482

1 P X 0 0.96482
P X 0 0.03518
15 15
p0 1 p 0.03518
0
15
1 p 0.03518
p 0.2
(iii) Let Y be the number of days, out of 30, that rains.
Y ~ B(30,0.25)
From G.C.,
When n = 6, P Y 6 0.14546
When n = 7, P Y 7 0.16624
When n = 8, P Y 8 0.15931 Therefore, the most
likely number of rainy days is 7.

2015 – 2016 / H2 Maths / Normal Distribution Assignment Page 2 of 3


National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016

3. Given the climate of the country and duration of transportation, the probability of a
strawberry from a particular orchard turning rotten is believed to be 0.15. In a fruits
wholesale centre where strawberries from that orchard are sold, they are packed and sold in
trays of 20.

(i) Show that the probability that there are at most 5 rotten strawberries in a tray is
0.933, correct to three significant figures. [2]

(ii) Find, to 3 decimal places, the probability that there are exactly 3 rotten strawberries
in 2 randomly selected trays. [3]

A cold desserts hawker bought 60 trays of strawberries from the wholesaler centre. Using a
suitable approximation, find the probability that there are at least 4 trays with more than 5
rotten strawberries in each tray. [4]

Q3 Solution
(i) Let X be the number of rotten strawberries in a tray of 20 strawberries.
Then X B 20,0.15 .
Therefore P( X 5) 0.93269 0.933 .
(ii) Let W be the number of rotten strawberries in two trays. Then W ~ B(40,0.15).
P(W = 3) = 0.0816

OR

Let X i be the number of rotten strawberries in tray i, where i = 1, 2. Therefore


we have
P X1 X 2 3
P X1 0, X 2 3 P X1 3, X 2 0 P X1 1, X 2 2 P X1 2, X 2 1
= 0.0816
Let Y be the number of trays, out of 60, with more than 2 rotten strawberries
per tray.
Then Y B 60,1 0.933 ,
i.e. Y B 60,0.067
Since n 60 30 and p 0.1 is small
and np 4.02 5,
Y Po 4.02 approximately.
Therefore P Y 4 1 P Y 3 = 0.570

2015 – 2016 / H2 Maths / Normal Distribution Assignment Page 3 of 3

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