CM1B Sept23 Excel Solution
CM1B Sept23 Excel Solution
Alternative 1 - IRR
Alternative 2 - XIRR
i 3.04% [2]
This method gives a slightly different solution as the XIRR function takes account of actual month lengths
(ii) 4.50%
The yield curve has a upward sloping shape. It is an increasing yield curve. 4.00%
[1]
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
0 5
Market Segmentation
Bonds of differing terms tend to be purchased by different types of investor.
e.g. Pension funds have long term liabilities and so are interested in long dated bonds, whilst general insurers tend
ties and so would be more interested in shorter term bonds.
The interplay of demand from these various investors and supply (of bonds from governments and companies) wll
uce the term structure of interest rates.
Alternative (iii) (iv)
3.6954% [1] [2] [1]
PV Yield to
redemption Solver/Goalseek
(1+i)-t Maturity
used to find the
Price
yield to maturity by equating the price to £0.99.
yt
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 [1]
[2]
shorter outstanding terms.
[2]
nd companies) wll
[Maximum 3]
quating the price to £0.99.
(i) (ii) See separate sheet
1 2.50%
2 2.52%
3 2.57% (iii) 20-year par yield
4 2.62% 3.70%
5 2.70%
6 2.78%
7 2.87% (iv) Yield to maturity
8 2.96% 3.77%
9 3.05%
10 3.15%
11 3.24%
12 3.33%
13 3.42%
14 3.51%
15 3.58%
16 3.65%
17 3.71%
18 3.77%
19 3.82%
20 3.87%
21 3.91%
22 3.96%
23 4.00%
24 4.04%
25 4.09%
You should assume that deaths occur uniformly over each policy year.
Terminal Bonus payable on death (as a percentage of basic sum assured plus bonuses added prior to
year
1-10 0%
11-15 5%
16-20 10%
21-25 20%
1%
(UWP only)
[1] [1] [2] [2]
Conventional With Profits
125,000 0.5% 3%
2.50% 1% 125,000
Benefit on Benefit on
Unit fund at Unit fund before Terminal death before death
mid year AMC AMC Fund at end Bonus minimum during year
1,202.25 1,217.19 12.17 1,205.02 0% 1,202.25 125,000
3,624.49 3,669.52 36.70 3,632.82 0% 3,624.49 125,000
7,284.71 7,375.20 73.75 7,301.45 0% 7,284.71 125,000
12,249.26 12,401.43 124.01 12,277.41 0% 12,249.26 125,000
17,287.03 17,501.78 175.02 17,326.77 0% 17,287.03 125,000
22,399.11 22,677.37 226.77 22,450.60 5% 23,519.07 125,000
27,586.60 27,929.30 279.29 27,650.01 5% 28,965.93 125,000
32,850.60 33,258.70 332.59 32,926.11 5% 34,493.13 125,000
38,192.24 38,666.70 386.67 38,280.03 5% 40,101.86 125,000
43,612.68 44,154.47 441.54 43,712.93 5% 45,793.31 125,000
49,113.06 49,723.19 497.23 49,225.96 10% 54,024.37 125,000
54,694.58 55,374.04 553.74 54,820.30 10% 60,164.04 125,000
60,358.42 61,108.25 611.08 60,497.16 10% 66,394.27 125,000
66,105.81 66,927.03 669.27 66,257.76 10% 72,716.39 125,000
71,937.97 72,831.64 728.32 72,103.33 10% 79,131.76 125,000
77,856.15 78,823.35 788.23 78,035.11 20% 93,427.38 125,000
83,861.63 84,903.43 849.03 84,054.39 20% 100,633.95 125,000
89,955.69 91,073.19 910.73 90,162.46 20% 107,946.82 125,000
96,139.63 97,333.96 973.34 96,360.62 20% 115,367.56 125,000
102,414.79 103,687.07 1,036.87 102,650.20 20% 122,897.75 125,000
108,782.51 110,133.89 1,101.34 109,032.55 30% 141,417.26 141,417
115,244.15 116,675.81 1,166.76 115,509.05 30% 149,817.39 149,817
121,801.10 123,314.21 1,233.14 122,081.07 30% 158,341.42 158,341
128,454.76 130,050.53 1,300.51 128,750.03 30% 166,991.19 166,991
135,206.57 136,886.22 1,368.86 135,517.35 30% 175,768.54 175,769
[1]
Maturity
Benefit
176,173
(i} (ii)
Benefit on death during
year Maturity Benefit
Year Conventional Unitised Conventional Unitised
1 125,000 125,000 177,344 176,173
2 125,625 125,000
3 126,269 125,000
4 126,932 125,000
5 127,615 125,000
6 128,318 125,000
7 129,043 125,000
8 129,789 125,000
9 130,558 125,000
10 131,349 125,000
11 138,773 125,000
12 139,655 125,000
13 140,564 125,000
14 141,499 125,000
15 142,463 125,000
16 150,287 125,000
17 151,358 125,000
18 152,461 125,000
19 153,597 125,000
20 154,768 125,000
21 170,153 141,417
22 171,507 149,817
23 172,903 158,341
24 174,340 166,991
25 175,820 175,769
Pricing / reserving assumptions
Age x qx qx
30 0.000674 Term Assurances
31 0.000719 Mortality 100% of table A
32 0.000769 Interest rate 5.75% per annum effective
33 0.000826
34 0.000893
35 0.000969 Temporary Level Annuities
36 0.001055 Mortality 100% of table B
37 0.001154 Interest rate 4.25% per annum effective
38 0.001267
39 0.001396 You should ignore expenses
40 0.001543
41 0.001711
42 0.001901
43 0.002117
44 0.002363
45 0.002642
46 0.002957
47 0.003315
48 0.003718
49 0.004174
50 0.004689
51 0.005269
52 0.005922
53 0.006656
54 0.007481
55 0.008406
56 0.009444
57 0.010606
58 0.011906
59 0.013357
60 0.014978 0.00631
61 0.016783 0.006468
62 0.018793 0.006668
63 0.021027 0.00692
64 0.023509 0.007235
65 0.026261 0.007627
66 0.029308 0.008112
67 0.03268 0.00871
68 0.036402 0.009444
69 0.040507 0.010338
70 0.045028 0.011424
71 0.049998 0.012732
72 0.055454 0.014303
73 0.061433 0.016178
74 0.067974 0.018404
75 0.075116 0.021031
76 0.082902 0.024115
77 0.091373 0.027713
78 0.100569 0.031889
79 0.110532 0.036703
80 0.121303 0.042223
81 0.132919 0.048512
82 0.145417 0.055631
83 0.158831 0.063639
84 0.173187 0.072587
85 0.18851 0.08252
Claims experience
Assurance Annuity
Reduction in
Calendar Policy annual
Year Year Claims paid benefit
2008 1 $ 110,000 $ 10,500
2009 2 $ - $ 23,000
per annum effective 2010 3 $ - $ 12,500
2011 4 $ 200,000 $ -
2012 5 $ - $ 29,500
2013 6 $ 95,000 $ -
2014 7 $ - $ 12,000
per annum effective 2015 8 $ - $ -
2016 9 $ - $ 20,000
2017 10 $ - $ -
2018 11 $ 320,000 $ 23,000
2019 12 $ 120,000 $ 8,000
2020 13 $ - $ 23,000
2021 14 $ 190,000 $ 31,000
2022 15 $ - $ -
5.75% $ 12,800,000
Remaining
benefit/annuity IF at
end of year Term Assurance
End of Term
Date Policy Year Assurance Annuity PV Benefit PV Premium
1-Jan-08 12,800,000 640,000
31-Dec-08 1 12,690,000 629,500 181,752.84 173,301.43
31-Dec-09 2 12,690,000 606,500 181,574.52 164,922.33
31-Dec-10 3 12,690,000 594,000 180,522.85 156,064.57
31-Dec-11 4 12,490,000 594,000 175,618.47 144,388.22
31-Dec-12 5 12,490,000 564,500 172,347.87 134,643.68
31-Dec-13 6 12,395,000 564,500 166,354.26 123,394.54
31-Dec-14 7 12,395,000 552,500 159,972.65 112,581.81
31-Dec-15 8 12,395,000 552,500 151,588.76 101,145.91
31-Dec-16 9 12,395,000 532,500 140,854.79 89,048.64
31-Dec-17 10 12,395,000 532,500 127,362.81 76,248.84
31-Dec-18 11 12,075,000 509,500 107,808.65 61,083.03
31-Dec-19 12 11,955,000 501,500 87,032.71 46,642.31
31-Dec-20 13 11,955,000 478,500 63,135.79 31,990.04
31-Dec-21 14 11,765,000 447,500 33,830.08 16,201.52
31-Dec-22 15 11,765,000 447,500 - -
[4] [3]
per unit SA
8,451.41 5,867,221.39
16,652.19 5,342,783.50
24,458.28 4,918,039.19
31,230.26 4,592,301.57
37,704.18 4,043,885.66
42,959.72 3,712,421.90
47,390.84 3,297,716.51
50,442.85 2,949,825.92
51,806.15 2,495,046.63
51,113.97 2,132,860.75
46,725.62 1,678,608.00
40,390.40 1,277,708.91
31,145.75 840,846.65
17,628.57 408,432.67
- -
[2] [2] [1]
Premium
Remaining
benefit/annuity IF at
end of year Term Assurance
End of Term
Date Policy Year Assurance Annuity Abarx:<16-n> PV Benefit
1-Jan-08 12,800,000 640,000
31-Dec-08 1 12,690,000 629,500 0.0143225248 181,752.84
31-Dec-09 2 12,690,000 606,500 0.0143084732 181,574.52
31-Dec-10 3 12,690,000 594,000 0.0142255989 180,522.85
31-Dec-11 4 12,490,000 594,000 0.0140607263 175,618.47
31-Dec-12 5 12,490,000 564,500 0.0137988686 172,347.87
31-Dec-13 6 12,395,000 564,500 0.0134210776 166,354.26
31-Dec-14 7 12,395,000 552,500 0.0129062246 159,972.65
31-Dec-15 8 12,395,000 552,500 0.0122298313 151,588.76
31-Dec-16 9 12,395,000 532,500 0.0113638397 140,854.79
31-Dec-17 10 12,395,000 532,500 0.0102753379 127,362.81
31-Dec-18 11 12,075,000 509,500 0.0089282525 107,808.65
31-Dec-19 12 11,955,000 501,500 0.0072800257 87,032.71
31-Dec-20 13 11,955,000 478,500 0.0052811197 63,135.79
31-Dec-21 14 11,765,000 447,500 0.0028754852 33,830.08
31-Dec-22 15 11,765,000 447,500 -
[1] [2] [3]
0.0013771 per unit SA
Remaining
benefit/annuity IF at
end of year Reworked figures from (i)
End of Term
Date Policy Year Assurance Annuity Actual px Actual qx Actual n-1px
1-Jan-08 12,800,000 640,000
31-Dec-08 1 12,690,000 629,500 0.991406 0.008594 1
31-Dec-09 2 12,690,000 606,500 1 0 0.99140625
31-Dec-10 3 12,690,000 594,000 1 0 0.99140625
31-Dec-11 4 12,490,000 594,000 0.98424 0.01576 0.99140625
31-Dec-12 5 12,490,000 564,500 1 0 0.97578125
31-Dec-13 6 12,395,000 564,500 0.992394 0.007606 0.97578125
31-Dec-14 7 12,395,000 552,500 1 0 0.968359375
31-Dec-15 8 12,395,000 552,500 1 0 0.968359375
31-Dec-16 9 12,395,000 532,500 1 0 0.968359375
31-Dec-17 10 12,395,000 532,500 1 0 0.968359375
31-Dec-18 11 12,075,000 509,500 0.974183 0.025817 0.968359375
31-Dec-19 12 11,955,000 501,500 0.990062 0.009938 0.943359375
31-Dec-20 13 11,955,000 478,500 1 0 0.933984375
31-Dec-21 14 11,765,000 447,500 0.984107 0.015893 0.933984375
31-Dec-22 15 11,765,000 447,500 1 0 0.919140625
Premium 0.0013771 per unit SA
5.75%
Term Assurance
5.75%
[1] [3]
5.75%
[1] [1] [1] [1] [1] [2]
Expected
Death Actual Death Mortality Cumulative Reserve at Death Strain
Strain Strain Profit EOY total to EOY year end at Risk
Reserve
Remaining benefit/annuity held at Premiums Interest
IF at end of year start received earned
End of Policy Term
Date Year Assurance Annuity 15 year Term A
1-Jan-08 12,800,000 640,000
31-Dec-08 1 12,690,000 629,500 $ - $ 17,627 $ 1,014
31-Dec-09 2 12,690,000 606,500 $ 8,451 $ 17,475 $ 1,491
31-Dec-10 3 12,690,000 594,000 $ 16,652 $ 17,475 $ 1,962
31-Dec-11 4 12,490,000 594,000 $ 24,458 $ 17,475 $ 2,411
31-Dec-12 5 12,490,000 564,500 $ 31,230 $ 17,200 $ 2,785
31-Dec-13 6 12,395,000 564,500 $ 37,704 $ 17,200 $ 3,157
31-Dec-14 7 12,395,000 552,500 $ 42,960 $ 17,069 $ 3,452
31-Dec-15 8 12,395,000 552,500 $ 47,391 $ 17,069 $ 3,706
31-Dec-16 9 12,395,000 532,500 $ 50,443 $ 17,069 $ 3,882
31-Dec-17 10 12,395,000 532,500 $ 51,806 $ 17,069 $ 3,960
31-Dec-18 11 12,075,000 509,500 $ 51,114 $ 17,069 $ 3,921
31-Dec-19 12 11,955,000 501,500 $ 46,726 $ 16,628 $ 3,643
31-Dec-20 13 11,955,000 478,500 $ 40,390 $ 16,463 $ 3,269
31-Dec-21 14 11,765,000 447,500 $ 31,146 $ 16,463 $ 2,738
31-Dec-22 15 11,765,000 447,500 $ 17,629 $ 16,202 $ 1,945
5.75%
Reserve Interest
Benefits required at Mortality Cumulative Reserve held earned on
paid end Profit EOY total to EOY at start reserve
$ -765,451
4.25% Alternative
Reserve
required at Mortality Cumulative total Premium Benefits
Benefits paid end Profit EOY to EOY received paid
$ -631,374
Assurance policies make a mortality profit when the mortality is lower than expected.
Annuities make a profit when the mortality is higher than expected.
In this case we had a loss on the assurance policies and gain on the annuities.
So for both policy types mortality was higher than expected over the term.
In light of this the insurance company may wish to review its mortality assumptions.
The timing of deaths will affect the mortality profit. Even if the total number of deaths is as expected,
deaths occurring much earlier or later than expected would impact the mortality profit.
It is also possible is that the policyholders who have died were policyholders with larger than
average sums assured.
This would give their deaths greater weighting when calculating the mortality loss/profit.
The company should also investigate the numbers of claimants compared with expected
when reviewing its mortality assumptions.
[Maximum 6]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[1]
[Maximum 6]
(i) Assurance $ 17,627
Annuity $ 6,280,627
(iv)
Assurance policies make a mortality profit when the mortality is lower than expected.
Annuities make a profit when the mortality is higher than expected.
In this case we had a loss on the assurance policies and gain on the annuities.
So for both policy types mortality was higher than expected over the term.
In light of this the insurance company may wish to review its mortality assumptions.
It is also possible is that the policyholders who have died were policyholders with larger than
average sums assured.
This would give their deaths greater weighting when calculating the mortality loss/profit.
The company should also investigate the numbers of claimants compared with expected
when reviewing its mortality assumptions.