Probability

1. i. Kathryn is allowed three attempts at a high jump. If she succeeds on any attempt, she
does not jump again. The probability that she succeeds on her first attempt is . If she
fails on her first attempt, the probability that she succeeds on her second attempt is .
If she fails on her first two attempts, the probability that she succeeds on her third
attempt is . Find the probability that she succeeds.

[3]

ii. Khaled is allowed two attempts to pass an examination. If he succeeds on his first
attempt, he does not make a second attempt. The probability that he passes at the
first attempt is 0.4 and the probability that he passes on either the first or second
attempt is 0.58. Find the probability that he passes on the second attempt, given that
he failed on the first attempt.

[3]

2. The table shows the numbers of members of a swimming club in certain categories.

Male Female
Adults 78 45
Children 52 n
It is given that of the female members are children.

i. Find the value of n.

[2]

ii. Find the probability that a member chosen at random is either female or a child (or
both).

[2]

The table below shows the corresponding numbers for an athletics club.

Male Female
Adults 6 4
Children 5 10

iii. Two members of the athletics club are chosen at random for a photograph.
a. Find the probability that one of these members is a female child and the other is
an adult male.

[2]

b. Find the probability that exactly one of these members is female and exactly
one is a child.

[2]

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 Probability

3. Each question on a multiple-choice examination paper has n possible responses, only one of
which is correct. Joni takes the paper and has probability p, where 0 < p < 1, of knowing the
correct response to any question, independently of any other. If she knows the correct
response she will choose it, otherwise she will choose randomly from the n possibilities. The
events K and A are ‘Joni knows the correct response’ and ‘Joni answers correctly’
respectively.

i. Show that where q = 1 − p.

[3]

ii. Find P(K|A).

[3]

A paper with 100 questions has n = 4 and p = 0.5. Each correct response scores 1 and each
incorrect response scores − 1.

iii.
a. Joni answers all the questions on the paper and scores 40. How many
questions did she answer correctly?

[1]

b. By finding the distribution of the number of correct answers, or otherwise, find

the probability that Joni scores at least 40 on the paper using her strategy.

[6]

4. During an outbreak of a disease, it is known that 68% of people do not have the disease. Of
people with the disease, 96% react positively to a test for diagnosing it, as do m% of people
who do not have the disease.

i. In the case m = 8, find the probability that a randomly chosen person has the disease,
given that the person reacts positively to the test.

[5]

ii. What value of m would be required for the answer to part (i) to be 0.95?

[4]

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 Probability
5. For the events A and B it is given that
P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A or B but not both) = 0.4.

i. Find P(A ∩ B).

[3]

ii. Find P(A′ ∩ B).

[1]

iii. State, giving a reason, whether A and B are independent.

[1]

6. Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6 and P(A|B′) = 0.75.

i. Find P(A∩B) and P(A∩B).

[6]

ii. Determine, giving a reason in each case,

a. whether A and B are mutually exclusive,
b. whether A and B are independent.

[2]

iii. A further event C is such that P(A∪B∪C) = 1 and P(A∩B∩C) = 0.05. It is also given that
P(A∩B′∩C) = P(A′∩B∩C) = x and P(A∩B′∩C′) = 2x.
Find P(C).

[3]

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 Probability
7. Each of the 30 students in a class plays at least one of squash, hockey and tennis.

• 18 students play squash

• 19 students play hockey
• 17 students play tennis
• 8 students play squash and hockey
• 9 students play hockey and tennis
• 11 students play squash and tennis

(a) Find the number of students who play all three sports. [3]

A student is picked at random from the class.

(b) Given that this student plays squash, find the probability that this student does not [1]
play hockey.

Two different students are picked at random from the class, one after the other, without
replacement.

(c) Given that the first student plays squash, find the probability that the second student [4]
plays hockey.

8.
(a) Events A and B are independent, and and

Find P(A) and P(B). [5]

Events C and D are such that P(C) = 0.6, P(D) = 0.3 and P (C ⋃ D) = 0.8. Find P
(b) [4]
(D |C′).

9. For events A, B and C it is given that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(C ) = 0.4 and P (A ⋂ B ⋂ C) =
0.1. It is also given that events A and B are independent and that events A and C are
independent.

(i) Find P (B│A) [1]

(ii) Given also that events B and C are independent, find P (A’⋂B’⋂C’). [4]

Given instead that events B and C are not independent, find the greatest and least
(iii) possible values of
[5]
P (A’⋂B’⋂C’ ).

END OF QUESTION paper

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Mark scheme Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

1 i M1

i M1

Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered this part correctly. A few omitted the probability of
success at either the first attempt or the third attempt. Others thought that the

i A1
probability of success at the third attempt was instead of

. Only a few chose

the more elegant method using the complement.

ii 0.6p or equiv seen B1 Tree diag alone insufficient for mark. NB 0.6 × 0.3 = 0.18 seen at the end is

ii 0.4 + 0.6p = 0.58 M1 Or 0.6p = 0.18. “0.18” alone insufficient probably a check, not an answer.

Examiner's Comments

Many good answers were seen. Some candidates appeared not to

understand the difference between P(he passes on the 2nd attempt) and P(he
passes on the 2nd attempt, given that he failed on the first), giving an answer of
0.58 − 0.4 = 0.18. A few formed an equation, but with the term “0.4p” instead
But if 0.3 seen and 0.18 is very clearly
ii p = 0.3 A1 of “0.6p”. Some found the correct answer of 0.3 but then unnecessarily
indicated as the ans then B1M1A0
continued by using the formula

Others, having found the correct value of 0.3, continued with 0.6 × 0.3 = 0.18.

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 Probability
If candidates did not make clear that this last line was only a check, rather
than an answer, they were likely to lose the final mark. Many candidates gave
incorrect attempts based on misunderstandings of conditional probability,
such as 0.4 ÷ 0.58 = 0.690.

Total 6

correct first step involving n or complete

2 i M1
or correct method for finding n

Examiner's Comments

Although many candidates had no problem with this part, a disappointing

i n = 75 A1 number appeared to have trouble coping with simple ratio and proportion. A

common incorrect response was × 45 = 28.125, rounded to 28. Another

common response was n = 45 × = 72.

ii M1

or 0.48 + 0.508 − 0.48×0.508

Completely correct method

ft their integer answer to (i)

eg if their (i) is 28, ans 0.616 or M1A1ft

ii A1 ft

Examiner's Comments

This is a simple question requiring the addition of three numbers (or

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 Probability
subtraction of one number from the total), followed by division by the total.
However, presumably because of unfamiliarity with two-way tables, only a
minority of candidates used this approach.

Some candidates tried to use multiplication of probabilities, i.e.

P(female)×P(adult) + P(female)×P(child) + P(male)×P(child). These candidates
generally failed to realise that the second probability in each product must be
a conditional probability. A correct version of this method is possible, but this
method is unnecessarily long and was rarely carried out correctly.

Many candidates added the frequencies (or the probabilities) for females plus
children, thus including the female children twice. Others added females plus
children plus female children, thus including the female children three times.

Perhaps these mistakes were prompted by a misunderstanding of the phrase

“or both” in the question. A few correctly added females plus children and
subtracted female children.

ie allow M1 if ‘2 ×’ is omitted OR
(a)
if 25 instead of 24, but not both errors
iii M1

allow M1 for correct num or denom

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates attempted P(female child) × P(adult male). Most of these

NB long methods may be correct, eg
made one or both of two errors: omission of “2 ×” and/or failure to reduce the

second denominator to 24. Thus and and

iii A1

were frequently seen.

A correct method using combinations was seen, but some candidates added
C1 and 6C1 in the numerator instead of multiplying. Others had a
10

denominator of 25 instead of 25C2.

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 Probability

(b) FA + MC or FC + MA

ie allow 25 instead of 24 AND

allow one case with × 2
iii M1 or both cases without × 2
ie allow 25 and one of these two errors

NB ft their cf scheme for (iii)(a)

(iiia)

NB ft their (iii)(a)

cao
allow M1 if one of these fracts correct
NB 25C2 in denom NOT M1, cf (iii)(a)
iii A1 Examiner's Comments

NB see note on long methods in 7(iiia)

Mistakes made in part (i) were carried over into this part. Some candidates
found P(female child) × P(adult male), but not P(adult female) × P(male child).
Some very common errors involved such working as P(female) × P(child) =

Total 8

3 i M1

i = p + (1 − p)/n A1
Allow

Examiner's Comments
i B1
Almost all the candidates scored full marks.

ii P(K ∩ A) = p B1

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 Probability

ii M1

AEF

ii A1 Examiner's Comments

Almost all the candidates scored full marks.

If X answers are correct 100 − X are incorrect

iii B1 70 seen
so score = 2X − 100 = 40 giving X = 70

P(A) = 5/8

iii B1

(α)

iii M1A1 Allow M1 from wrong p

iii P(X ≥ 70) = 1 − Φ [(69.5 − 62.5)/s] M1A1 Normal approximation. Allow M1 from 40/70 or wrong p

iii = 0.0741 A1 Standardise M1 only if no or wrong cc, A1 for 0.0607

iii (β) E(2X − 100) = 25 B1

iii Var(2X − 100) = 93.75 M1A1

iii P(2X −100 ≥ 40) = 1 − Φ [(39 − 25)/ √(93.75)] M1A1 Standardise, M1 only for no or wrong cc, A1 for 0.0671

iii = 0.0741 B1

(ɣ) Score per question = S

iii B1

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 Probability
iii M1A1

Total, T ∼ N(25, 93.75)

iii M1A1 As for β
P(T ≥ 40) = 1 − Φ [39 − 25)/ √(93.75)]

Examiner's Comments

iii = 0.0741 B1 Over half the candidates gained full marks, but there were some very
confused attempts, muddling the various methods given on the mark scheme.
Many obtained an incorrect value of p, using the answer to (ii) instead of (i).

Total 13

Allow M marks for 0.8 instead of 0.08 or

4 i 0.32 × 0.96 or 0.68 × 0.08 M1
incorrect 1 − 0.68.

i Both, added. M1

i = 0.3616 A1 May be implied.

i 0.32 × 0.96 ÷ “0.3616” M1

Allow 0.85 or

i 0.850 A1
Examiner's Comments

Almost all candidates scored full marks.

ii M1,A1 Allow 0.3072

Allow failure to multiply brackets correctly, but NOT divide instead of subtract
ii Solve M1
or vv.

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 Probability

ii p = 0.0238, so m = 2.38 A1 Examiner's Comments

Most candidates scored full marks. A few lost the final mark by saying m =
0.0238. Some weaker candidates could not solve the equation.

Total 9

5 i Let P(A ∩ B) = x, 0.6 − x + 0.3 − x = 0.4 M1A1 M1 for attempt to set up equation in x. x must appear more than once.

Examiner's Comments

i x = 0.25 A1
Almost all gained full marks. Those who did not usually obtained the answer
0.5.

0.3-(i). Ans must be ≤ 0.

ii 0.05 B1 ft Examiner's Comments

Those who were correct in (i) were also correct here.

Must have an answer to (i)

Examiner's Comments
iii No, 0.6 × 0.3 ≠ 0.25 B1 ft P(B|A′) = 0.05 ÷ 0.4 = 0.125 ≠ P(B)

Almost all the candidates earned this mark. Those who were incorrect in (i)
usually scored the mark on follow through.

Total 5

6 i P(A ∩ B′) = 0.75 × 0.4 = 0.3 M1A1

i P(A ∩ B) = 0.5− “0.3” = 0.2 M1A1

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 Probability
Examiner's Comments
i P(A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.6 − “0.2“ = 0.9 M1A1
Four-fifths of the candidates obtained full marks.

ii (a) No, P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0 oe B1

Examiner's Comments

ii (b) No, 0.5 × 0.6 ≠ 0.2 oe B1

Three-quarters of the candidates obtained full marks. Some candidates did
not fully understand the concept of mutual exclusiveness.

iii P(A' ∩ B′ ∩ C) = 0.1 soi B1ft 1 − (i)

iii x = 0.1 B1

Examiner's Comments

This was by far the most difficult question on the paper. Half the candidates
iii P(C) = 2x + 0.05 + 0.1 = 0.35 B1 gained no marks. Many did not realise that P(A ⋃ B)=0.9 ⇒ P(A′ ∩ B′ ∩
C)=0.1. A few found the value of x correctly, but could make no further
progress. Candidates who drew Venn diagrams did better than those who
wrote down many equations but did not know what to do with them.

Total 11

Any
equivalent
Attempt to represent information e.g. by Venn diagram with x in centre and 3 other
B1(AO3.3)
method
OR
correct values in terms of x
B1
M1(AO3.4)
7 a Attempt total (in terms of x) = 30

E1(AO1.1)

M1
x = 4 so n(S H T) = 4
[3] Or the
number
doing all

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 Probability
three is 4.
E0 for just
x=4

B1FT(AO2.2a)
b oe FT their (a)
[1]

B1(AO2.2a)

B1(AO2.2a)

c M1(AO2.2a)

A1(AO1.1) All correct

[4]

Total 8

M1(AO1.1a)

M1(AO1.1)

M1(AO3.1a)

8 a
A1(AO1.1)

Attempt equation in
A1(AO1.1) one P
24(P(A))2 – 10P(A) + 1 = 0
( (6P(A) – 1)(4P(A) – 1) = 0 ) [5] Correct quadratic

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 Probability
equation in one P

Allow without "vice

versa"

M1(AO 1.2)

M1(AO 1.1)

M1(AO 1.1)
b

M1(AO 1.2) Attempted

[4]

Total 9

B1
9 i 0.5
[1] Examiner’s Comments
Almost all candidates answered this question correctly.

0.16 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.14 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.06 M2

M1 for at least 4 0.6 + 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.3
correct. − 0.24 − 0.2 + 0.1 =
ii 0.86

M2A1. M1 if incorrect

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 Probability
coefficient of
P(A⋂B⋂C) used in
= 0.86 A1
otherwise correct
formula.
1 – “0.86”

0.14 A1

[5]

Examiner’s Comments
Most candidates gained full marks. A few made errors in the formula for
P(A⋃B⋃C).

Greatest: 1 − (0.6 +
for any of these soi 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.3 −
M1
eg P(B⋂C) = 0.26 0.24 − 0.26 + 0.1) =
greatest : P(A’ ⋂B⋂C’ ) = 0.04,
0.2
P(A’ ⋂B⋂C) = 0.16

P(A’ ⋂B’ ⋂C) = 0

M1 for any of these soi Least 1 − (0.6 + 0.5 +
least: P(A’ ⋂B⋂C’ ) = 0.2, P(A’ ⋂B⋂C) = 0 eg P(B⋂C) = 0.1 0.4 − 0.3 − 0.24 −
iii
0.1 + 0.1) = 0.04
P(A’ ⋂B’ ⋂C) = 0.16
M1A1
greatest 1 – (0.16 + 0.2 + 0.04 + 0.14 + 0.1 + 0.16) = 0.2
M1 for fully correct
method for either.
least 1 – (0.16 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.14 + 0.1 + 0.16) = 0.04 A1

[5]

Examiner’s Comments

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 Probability
This was the most difficult question on the paper. Those who drew Venn
diagrams and put the correct probabilities in the correct places did better than
those who tried to repeat the method in part (ii). There were few fully correct
solutions, but many found one of the correct limits.

Total 10

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