Islamic University Of Technology (IUT)

Board Bazar, Gazipur-1704, Bangladesh.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Course Name: Transportation Planning

Course Code: CEE 6505
Name of Assignment: Trip Generation

Name: Md. Rifat Hossain Bhuiyan

Student ID: 201051019
Date of Submission: 28-05-2022

Course Teacher:
Mr. Moinul Hossain
Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE)
Islamic University of Technology (IUT)
Contents
Introduction to Trip Generation ............................................................................ 3
Methodology ..................................................................................................... 3
Study Area......................................................................................................... 3
Prediction of Future Trips in External Zones (Growth Factor Model) ............ 5
Prediction of Trip Generation in Internal Zones (Regression Model): ............ 6
Prediction of Trip Production: .......................................................................... 6
Result of Regression Model: ............................................................................. 6
Explanation: ...................................................................................................... 7
Prediction of Trip Attraction:............................................................................ 8
Result of Regression Model: ............................................................................. 8
Appendix ............................................................................................................... 9
Introduction to Trip Generation
Trip generation is the first stage of four stage Travel Demand Modelling
technique. The objective of trip generation study is to predict the total number of
trips generated and attracted to each zone of the study area. In contemporary
transportation planning language, A Trip is defined as a oneway person
movement by a mechanized mode of transport, having two trip ends. The start of
the trip is called as origin and the end of trip is called as destination. Trip is
classified as Production or Origin and Attraction or Destination.
Methodology
There are three commonly practiced methods finding out trip generation-
• Growth Factor
• Regression Analysis
• Cross-classification
In this study, growth factor model will be used to predict the trips of External
zones whereas regression model will be used to predict the trips of internal zones.
Total Internal Zones considered = 17
Total External Zones Considered = 9
Study Area
In this study, Dhaka along with nearby districts around Dhaka has been
considered within the study area. Dhaka will be distributed into 17 internal zones
and the nearby areas will be distributed into 9 zones. These zones will be called
TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zones). An illustration of the study area is shown below:
 26

18
1 25

2
10
11
19
24
13 9
3
12
14

8
20 4
15 16
23

7
17
5

6
21
22

Fig: Illustration of Traffic Analysis Zones

Prediction of Future Trips in External Zones (Growth Factor Model)
The total number of trips per day in external zones 20 years later will be predicted with the help of Growth Factor Model. It is to be noted here, the growth factor has been calculated
considering three variables- Population, Income and Vehicle ownership. Besides, for the prediction of future trip generation, external cordon survey was carried out to find out the base year
OD matrix. The formula of growth factor model is shown below-

Here, Ti = Number of Future Trips

ti = Number of present trips
fi = Growth Factor

Avg. External Growth

Population Avg. Avg. Average No of Trip SI Present Trip Future Trip
Avg. household Total No Zones Factor
(20 years) household household Family Total Per
External Population household Vehicle of Trips
SI at 3% Income Vehicle Size Household Household
Zones (Present) Income Ownership Per Day 1 18 3.07 22388 68731
Growth (20 years Ownership (From Number Per Day
(Present) (20 years (Present)
Rate later) (Present) BBS) (Present)
later) 2 19 2.72 28644 77912

1 18 36000 65020 5502 6792 0.8 1.1 4.02 8955 2.5 22388 3 20 2.22 12885 28605
2 19 38000 68632 8685 9060 0.65 0.94 3.98 9548 3 28644 4 21 2.67 16573 44250
3 20 18000 32510 9818 10005 0.82 0.99 3.94 4569 2.82 12885
5 22 3.28 35355 115964
4 21 23000 41541 6461 8863 0.77 0.83 4.08 5637 2.94 16573
5 22 48000 86693 9485 11600 0.64 0.95 4.1 11707 3.02 35355 6 23 2.21 17098 37787
6 23 26000 46959 6486 7050 0.89 1 4.03 6452 2.65 17098 7 24 2.45 10284 25196
7 24 14000 25286 9930 10350 1 1.3 3.92 3571 2.88 10284
8 25 2.53 13796 34904
8 25 19000 34316 5789 6500 0.69 0.86 4.09 4645 2.97 13796
9 26 35000 63214 5584 7850 0.88 1.15 3.89 8997 2.44 21953 9 26 3.32 21953 72884
Prediction of Trip Generation in Internal Zones (Regression Model):
For the prediction of trip generation, regression model will be used. The main
advantage of regression model over growth factor model is that, there is no need
of base year OD matrix. Besides, various independent variables can be included
in the regression model. Regression model is generally very tedious to solve
manually hence software is used. In this study, two regression models will be
established for trip production and attraction in only one internal zone. Zone 1
has been selected for the study here. Similar action can be replicated to produce
regression models for other 16 zones.
Prediction of Trip Production:
To proceed with the regression model, hypothetical household data has been
generated. Total number of hypothetical data is 151. Besides, 5 independent
variables will be considered in this model which are- Household Size, Income,
Number of Student, Car Ownership, Number of Working Member.
Result of Regression Model:

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.341364934

R Square 0.116530018

Adjusted R Square 0.086065536

Standard Error 1.22894752

Observations 151

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 5 28.88555359 5.777110718 3.825110764 0.002766062
Residual 145 218.9952411 1.510312008
Total 150 247.8807947
 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

Intercept
5.775381997 0.594894746 9.70824173 1.78147E-17 4.599596587 6.951167406 4.599596587 6.951167406

HH Size
0.075345233 0.157278661 0.479055663 0.63262069 -0.23550968 0.386200147 -0.23550968 0.386200147

No of Student
0.158267969 0.274584029 0.576391751 0.565244063 -0.38443626 0.700972199 -0.38443626 0.700972199

No of Working Member

0.187591038 0.129058134 1.45353905 0.148235061 -0.067487146 0.442669221 -0.06748715 0.442669221

Car Ownership
0.660649528 0.268914095 2.45673076 0.015201114 0.129151694 1.192147362 0.129151694 1.192147362

Income
-1.94345E-05 1.38481E-05 -1.403405812 0.162633741 -4.68046E-05 7.93569E-06 -4.6805E-05 7.93569E-06

Explanation:
From the result, we can see that the value of correlation R 2 = 0.11 which is very poor. SS (Sum of Squares) is the measure of how spread the data are. Here, the model could explain only
11% of the observations. The P value of all the coefficients are high. Generally, when P <0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected. As, P value here is higher than 0.05 in case of four coefficient,
they don’t carry any significance. Car ownership was found to be the only significant coefficient.
The equation becomes: Y = 0.075345233X1+0.158267969X2+0.187591038X3+0.660649528X4 -0.000019X5
Prediction of Trip Attraction:
To proceed with the regression model, hypothetical household data has been generated. Total number of hypothetical data are 53. Besides, 4 independent variables will be considered in
this model which are- Office Floor Space, Shopping Floor Space, Employment Rate, Parking Space.

Result of Regression Model:

Regression Statistics ANOVA

Multiple R 0.42849351 df SS MS F Significance F
R Square 0.183606688 Regression 4 310552.172 77638.04308 2.69879754 0.041543931
Adjusted R Square 0.115573912 Residual 48 1380846.85 28767.64264
Standard Error 169.6102669 Total 52 1691399.02
Observations 53

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 957.9765259 674.722467 1.419808252 0.16212598 -398.6439172 2314.59697 -398.64392 2314.596969
Office Floor Space 0.016384427 0.00550696 2.975222047 0.00457306 0.005311943 0.02745691 0.00531194 0.02745691
Shopping Floor Space -0.005040381 0.00886356 -0.568663308 0.57223582 -0.02286176 0.012781 -0.0228618 0.012780999
Parking Space 0.002747221 0.00787097 0.34903217 0.72859167 -0.013078418 0.01857286 -0.0130784 0.018572859
Employment Rate 231.9800969 307.682312 0.753959807 0.45455621 -386.6566545 850.616848 -386.65665 850.6168483

Explanation:
From the result, we can see that the value of correlation R 2 = 0.18 which is very poor. SS (Sum of Squares) is the measure of how spread the data are. Here, the model could explain only
18% of the observations. The P value of all the coefficients are high. Generally, when P <0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected. As, P value here is higher than 0.05 in case of three coefficient,
they don’t carry any significance. Office Floor Space was found to be the only significant coefficient.
The equation becomes: Y = 0.01638X1-0.00504X2+0.00274X3+231.98X4
Appendix
Hypothetical data collected from the surveys-
Household survey data for determining Trip Production
No of
No of Car Trips Per
SI HH Size Working Income
Student Ownership Day (Y)
Member
1 5 2 1 2 60103 9
2 3 1 2 0 21506 5
3 2 0 1 0 40960 6
4 5 2 0 0 32480 6
5 6 2 3 1 57388 4
6 3 1 2 0 32705 6
7 5 2 2 0 24724 7
8 6 2 2 2 61318 4
9 5 2 1 0 26507 6
10 4 2 2 2 61944 4
11 6 2 1 2 64652 9
12 3 1 1 1 58650 5
13 4 2 2 0 23228 7
14 4 2 1 0 33866 5
15 3 1 1 0 23414 6
16 3 1 2 2 65156 9
17 2 0 2 1 57827 5
18 5 2 2 0 30714 6
19 2 0 1 2 68959 6
20 5 2 2 0 42843 7
21 5 2 1 0 35361 6
22 2 0 1 0 38262 6
23 6 2 3 0 24923 7
24 6 2 3 1 53992 4
25 2 0 1 1 50513 5
26 6 2 1 0 22415 6
27 2 0 0 2 66587 5
28 5 2 1 2 62858 9
29 5 2 0 0 48041 6
30 5 2 2 0 29876 6
31 2 0 1 0 38585 6
32 2 0 2 2 67581 7
33 2 0 2 1 51886 5
34 2 0 2 0 33144 6
35 6 2 3 0 36925 9
36 2 0 2 1 58281 6
37 3 1 1 0 21490 6
38 4 2 1 1 57246 7
39 5 2 1 0 40564 6
40 2 0 1 1 53646 6
41 5 2 2 2 62606 4
42 6 2 3 1 55869 4
43 3 1 2 0 20676 6
44 4 2 2 0 22714 7
45 3 1 2 0 38462 5
46 2 0 1 0 29904 5
47 4 2 1 2 69159 7
48 2 0 0 1 56162 5
49 6 2 3 0 34868 8
50 4 2 1 2 67695 8
51 4 2 1 1 56299 6
52 4 2 2 0 35156 7
53 5 2 2 0 32946 6
54 4 2 1 0 45091 5
55 2 0 0 0 43043 6
56 5 2 2 0 21593 7
57 6 2 1 0 43639 5
58 3 1 1 0 35618 5
59 5 2 0 0 38104 5
60 2 0 2 1 54828 5
61 5 2 2 1 52128 8
62 3 1 2 0 39489 5
63 3 1 1 0 26406 6
64 2 0 0 0 24448 5
65 4 2 2 0 40307 7
66 5 2 0 0 24962 5
67 4 2 2 2 63897 4
68 4 2 2 1 56649 7
69 3 1 1 0 37349 5
70 2 0 1 0 25410 5
71 6 2 1 0 38174 5
72 2 0 1 0 47974 5
73 2 0 2 0 30996 6
74 3 1 2 2 66130 8
75 5 2 0 0 22012 5
76 6 2 1 0 28842 6
77 6 2 1 2 64832 8
78 5 2 2 0 25309 7
79 3 1 2 0 27196 6
80 3 1 1 0 39214 5
81 5 2 0 2 60326 7
82 4 2 2 0 21227 6
83 4 2 1 0 45181 5
84 2 0 1 0 39786 6
85 2 0 0 0 30976 6
86 6 2 2 0 25625 7
87 4 2 2 0 21552 6
88 5 2 0 1 58988 6
 89 2 0 1 2 60863 6
90 5 2 1 1 51186 6
91 6 2 1 2 63887 8
92 2 0 1 1 54057 6
93 3 1 2 0 36924 5
94 3 1 1 1 57797 6
95 4 2 2 1 54148 9
96 3 1 1 0 23707 6
97 2 0 1 2 69796 6
98 6 2 1 2 68559 9
99 3 1 1 0 48133 6
100 6 2 1 2 69793 9
101 4 2 1 0 25721 6
102 5 2 2 0 37178 7
103 6 2 3 2 68294 12
104 4 2 2 0 25150 7
105 5 2 2 2 62776 4
106 6 2 1 1 56816 6
107 5 2 2 0 20531 6
108 6 2 2 0 45234 6
109 3 1 1 1 52582 6
110 6 2 2 1 56657 7
111 4 2 1 0 21236 6
112 3 1 1 1 53010 6
113 4 2 2 0 28656 6
114 2 0 0 1 49778 6
115 6 2 2 2 69506 4
116 3 1 2 0 42696 5
117 5 2 1 1 51689 6
118 5 2 1 1 50694 6
119 6 2 2 1 50401 7
120 2 0 0 2 65351 6
121 5 2 0 0 45119 5
122 2 0 0 1 51012 5
123 3 1 1 0 22421 6
124 3 1 1 1 56820 5
125 4 2 1 1 51048 6
126 2 0 1 0 28822 5
127 6 2 1 0 27861 5
128 3 1 2 0 46350 6
129 6 2 3 0 44328 8
130 6 2 3 1 59775 4
131 3 1 2 0 24637 6
132 3 1 1 2 63366 7
133 4 2 2 0 48451 7
134 4 2 2 0 46524 6
135 6 2 1 1 56266 6
136 4 2 1 0 45775 5
 137 4 2 2 0 25428 7
138 4 2 2 0 33976 6
139 2 0 0 0 36695 6
140 5 2 0 1 54916 5
141 3 1 2 1 57609 7
142 6 2 1 0 27463 6
143 3 1 1 1 51384 6
144 6 2 3 0 22014 9
145 6 2 3 1 59402 4
146 2 0 2 0 22251 5
147 2 0 0 0 39694 6
148 2 0 1 0 48418 6
149 2 0 2 0 42560 6
150 6 2 3 0 31505 7
151 5 2 0 0 44059 5

Survey data for determining Trip Attraction

SI Trips Per Office Floor Shopping Floor Parking Space Employment
Day Space Space Rate

1 1926 59096 67995 24654 0.76

2 1507 45565 70045 18641 0.89
3 1785 55035 66814 19916 0.74
4 1452 46814 69847 16963 0.77
5 1788 48003 68477 18613 0.69
6 1886 59264 68233 20455 0.68
7 1551 53977 69011 20551 0.78
8 1410 53792 73460 18842 0.79
9 1929 45504 66609 17324 0.85
10 1652 47056 65167 22878 0.88
11 1536 47236 72684 15031 0.89
12 1714 51910 71127 16776 0.77
13 1833 55344 72176 16444 0.99
14 1968 58417 72238 18493 0.88
15 1750 52302 69060 24768 0.98
16 1926 59226 66007 24288 1
17 1864 55767 67942 15109 0.77
18 1741 45635 68850 19017 0.78
19 1931 56308 65160 15098 0.69
20 1780 51337 74447 23649 0.77
21 1524 49603 65659 16776 0.75
22 1430 50639 66847 24223 0.75
23 1483 50197 68468 18692 0.78
24 1661 45107 71504 17031 0.69
25 1583 57923 69270 21875 0.77
26 1862 52367 71203 16569 0.88
27 1616 49336 65405 24677 0.85
28 1772 52045 66746 15062 0.89
29 1481 46739 65113 16367 0.86
30 1642 48259 69951 15437 0.78
31 1914 55641 68122 18330 0.79
32 1909 49761 66809 16757 0.84
33 1875 57640 71782 22031 0.86
34 1492 51280 67084 18880 0.88
35 1988 54115 68546 23921 0.75
36 1487 52467 67393 16296 0.76
37 1509 48795 68124 19611 0.77
38 1419 59518 69608 20672 0.79
39 1882 50256 67832 21571 0.77
40 1762 59155 74627 21816 0.73
41 1769 59830 71397 19175 0.74
42 1750 53814 69601 15014 0.74
43 1578 46599 66874 15335 0.73
44 1441 47586 72341 16089 0.77
45 1973 57203 65091 24261 0.74
46 1763 59714 66880 15230 0.87
47 1498 53950 65122 17978 0.77
48 1850 56064 68765 15054 0.89
49 1571 48378 66093 22011 0.72
50 1982 49385 66545 18960 0.86
51 1750 55473 74889 19795 0.87
52 1580 50521 65169 16847 0.77
53 1882 54769 70785 21121 0.71