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Tutorial - Time Series - 2024

The document contains 5 questions about time series analysis techniques. It includes examples of time series data on topics like sales, insurance claims, electricity usage, and inventory turnover. It asks to identify trends and seasonal variations, calculate seasonal indices using different models and methods, and make forecasts.

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ellendogan28
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78 views

Tutorial - Time Series - 2024

The document contains 5 questions about time series analysis techniques. It includes examples of time series data on topics like sales, insurance claims, electricity usage, and inventory turnover. It asks to identify trends and seasonal variations, calculate seasonal indices using different models and methods, and make forecasts.

Uploaded by

ellendogan28
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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THE INSTITUTE OF FINANCE MANAGEMENT (IFM)

Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Studies


MTU 07203 Business statistics 1
Tutorial Sheet Four
Time series Questions - 27th May to 14th June, 2024

Question One
a. Explain the importance of time series
b. Describe the importance of historigram in time series
c. Briefly explain the component of time series
d. Identify techniques for extracting the trend and seasonal variations
e. Define the term “forecasting”

Question Two
The following figures relates to sales of the shares for particular company in five days per week

Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4


Monday 22 22 24 26
Tuesday 36 34 38 38
Wednesday 40 42 43 45
Thursday 48 49 49 50
Friday 61 58 62 64
a. Present the data using a line graph and determine the trend and pattern
b. Extract the trend by
i. Semi averages
ii. Least squares regression
iii. Moving averages

Question Three
Data below relates to payment of life insurance claims received by insurance company from 2007 to 2009
(In “000”Tshs)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Qtr 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Values 2.8 4.2 3 4.6 3 4.2 3.5 5 3 4.7 3.6 5.3
Trend 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.6 4.5
a. Assuming an additive model, calculate the seasonal variation
b. Assuming the multiplicative model calculate the seasonal variation

1
Question Four
The quarterly electricity account for your company is tabulated as: Electric amount (Tshs)

YEAR Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4


2000 662 712 790
2001 686 718 821 846
2003 743 782 827 876
2004 805 842 876

a. Assuming the additive model, establish the centered trend values for the data using a
method of moving averages
b. Determine the seasonal indices using a ratio to moving average method
c. Determine the mean square error associated with the forecasting technique you have
employed
d. Forecasts for the electricity account values for quarter 4 and quarter 1, 2005

Question Five
Inventory turnover rates for Barwin group limited, by quarters are:

Quarter
Year I II III IV
2014 4 6.1 8.4 7.2
2015 4.1 6.6 11 8.6
2016 4.6 6.8 14.8 9.7

a. Estimate the linear trend equation for this time series.


b. With the help of developed linear trend, calculate the seasonal indices for each quarter.
c. Forecast the inventory turnover of year 2017 for all quarters.
d. Apply the average percent method to determine the seasonal indices.

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