FOUR-STEP MODELLING

Learning Objectives:

At the end of this chapter, students should be able to:

- Describe and discuss the traditional four-step travel demand model.

4
0 CONTENTS
0 Contents ....................................................................................................................................... 2
1 Definitions ..................................................................................................................................... 3
2 Modal Split ................................................................................................................................... 3
3 Factors Determining Mode Choice ...................................................................................... 3
4 Types of Mode Choice Models .............................................................................................. 4
4.1 Direct Generation Models ............................................................................................. 4
4.2 Sample ................................................................................................................................ 4
4.3 Trip End Models ................................................................................................................. 5
4.4 Sample ................................................................................................................................ 5
4.5 Trip Interchange Models................................................................................................. 6
4.6 Sample ................................................................................................................................ 6
4.7 Logit Models ....................................................................................................................... 7
4.8 Sample ................................................................................................................................ 8
5 Assignment .................................................................................................................................. 8
6 References ................................................................................................................................... 9
1 DEFINITIONS
Mode choice – process by which the trips between traffic analysis zones in study area
are allocated to available modes.

2 MODAL SPLIT
Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis process that determines the
number (or percentage) of trips between zones that are made by automobile and
by transit. The selection of one mode or another is a complex process that depends
on factors such as the traveler’s income, the availability of transit service or auto
ownership, and the relative advantages of each mode in terms of travel time, cost,
comfort, convenience, and safety. Mode choice models attempt to replicate the
relevant characteristics of the traveler, the transportation system, and the trip itself,
such that a realistic estimate of the number of trips by each mode for each zonal pair
is obtained.

In the simulation of the real system which is referred to as the transportation

planning process, modal split may be carried out at the following positions in the
process.

a) Modal split may be carried out as part of trip generation whereby the number
of trips made by a given mode is related to characteristics of the zone of origin.
This means that transport trips are generated separately from private transport
trips.
b) Modal split may be carried out between trip generation and distribution. Car-
owning households in the zone of origin have a choice of travel mode
depending upon the car/household ratio while non-car-owning household trips
are captive to public transport.
c) Modal split may be carried out between the trip distribution and the trip
assignment process. Trip distribution allows journey times both by public and
private transport to be estimated and then the modal split between public
transport trips may be made on the basis of travel time and cost.

3 FACTORS DETERMINING MODE CHOICE

- Availability of transit service
- Individual/Household characteristics
• Income
• Auto ownership
- Modal Characteristics
• Travel time
• Cost
• Comfort
4 TYPES OF MODE CHOICE MODELS
Since public transportation is a vital transportation component in urban areas, mode
choice calculations typically involve distinguishing trip interchanges as either auto or
transit. Depending on the level of detail required, four types of transit estimating
procedures are used: (1) direct generation of transit trips, (2) use of trip end models,
(3) trip interchange modal split models, and (4) logit models.

4.1 DIRECT GENERATION MODELS

Transit trips can be generated directly, by estimating either total person trips or auto
driver trips. Figure 12.8 is a graph that illustrates the relationship between transit trips
per day per 1000 population and persons per acre versus auto ownership. As density
of population increases, it can be expected that transit riding will also increase for a
given level of auto ownership.

This method assumes that the attributes of the system are not relevant. Factors such
as travel time, cost, and convenience are not considered. These so-called “pretrip”
distribution models apply when transit service is poor and riders are “captive,” or when
transit service is excellent and “choice” clearly favors transit. When highway and
transit modes “compete” for auto riders, then system factors are considered.

4.2 SAMPLE
Determine the number of transit trips per day in a zone which has 5000 people living
on 50 acres. Zone consists of 40% zero-auto households and 60% one-auto households.

Solution:

Calculate the number of persons per acre: 5000 / 50 = 100. Then determine the
number of transit trips per day per 1000 persons (from Figure 12.8) to calculate the
total of all transit trips per day for the zone.
 Zero autos / HH: 510 trips / day/1000 population

One auto / HH: 250 trips / day/1000 population

Total Transit Trips: (0.40)(510)(5) + (0.60)(250)(5) =

1020 + 750 = 1770 transit trips per day

4.3 TRIP END MODELS

To determine the percentage of total person or auto trips that will use transit, estimates
are made prior to the trip distribution phase based on land-use or socioeconomic
characteristics of the zone. This method does not incorporate the quality of service.
The procedure follows:

1. Generate total person trip productions and attractions by trip purpose.

2. Compute the urban travel factor.
3. Determine the percentage of these trips by transit using a mode choice
curve.
4. Apply auto occupancy factors.
5. Distribute transit and auto trips separately

The mode choice model shown in Figure 12.9 is based on two factors: households
per auto and persons per square mile. The product of these variables is called the
urban travel factor (UTF). Percentage of travel by transit will increase in an S curve
fashion as the UTF increases.

4.4 SAMPLE
The total number of productions in a zone is 10,000 trips/day. The number of
households per auto is 1.80, and residential density is 15,000 persons/square mile.
Determine the percent of residents who can be expected to use transit.
Solution: Compute the urban travel factor.
1 ℎ ℎ
=
1000
1
= × 1.80 × 15000 = 27
1000
Enter Figure 12.9. Transit mode split = 45%.

4.5 TRIP INTERCHANGE MODELS

In this method, system level-of-service variables are considered, including relative
travel time, relative travel cost, economic status of the trip maker, and relative travel
service. An example of this procedure is illustrated using the QRS method which takes
account of service parameters in estimating mode choice. The QRS method is based
on the following relationship:

= × 100 or × 100

= (1 − ) × 100

where

= Proportion of trips between zone and using transit

= Proportion of trips between zone and using auto

= a value referred to as the impedance of travel of mode , between

and , which is a measure of the total cost of the trip.

Impedance = (in vehicle time min) + (2.5 × excess time min) + (3 × trip cost,
$/income earned/min.

b = an exponent, which depends on trip purpose

m = for transit mode; for auto mode

4.6 SAMPLE
To illustrate the application of the QRS method, assume that the data shown in Table
12.21 have been developed for travel between a suburban zone S and a downtown
zone D. Determine the percent of work trips by auto and transit. An exponent value
of 2.0 is used for work travel. Median income is $24,000 per year.
Solution:

=
+

10 3 × [(1.50/2) + 0.15 × 10]

= × 60 + (2.5 × 5) +
30 24,000/120,000
= 20 + 12.5 + 33.75
66.25
8 3 × (8 × 0.10)
= × 60 + (2.5 × 8) + = 24 + 20 + 12
20 24,000/120,000

56
56
= × 100 = 41.67%
56 + 66.25
= (1 − 0.416) × 100 = 58.33%

Thus, the mode choice of travel by transit between zones S and D is 68.4%, and by
highway the value is 41.6%. These percentages are applied to the estimated trip
distribution values to determine the number of trips by each mode. If for example, the
number of work trips between zones S and D was computed to be 500, then the
number by auto would be 500 × 0.4167 = 208, and by transit, the number of trips would
be 500 × 0.584 = 292.

4.7 LOGIT MODELS

An alternative approach used in transportation demand analysis is to consider the
relative utility of each mode as a summation of each modal attribute. Then the choice
of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution. For example, assume that the utility
of each mode is

= + + + ⋯+

where:

= utility of mode

n = number of attributes

= attribute value (time, cost, etc)

= coefficient value for attribute

The choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution.

If two modes, auto ( ) and transit ( ), are being considered, the probability of
selecting the auto mode can be written as

( )=
+
This form is called the logit model and provides a convenient way to compute mode
choice. Choice models are utilized within the urban transportation planning process,
in transit marketing studies, and to directly estimate travel demand.

4.8 SAMPLE
Data has been obtained for travel between an additional suburban and downtown
zone. The logit model has been developed to estimate the mode share between
these two zones:

Auto: = −0.46 − 0.35 − 0.08 − 0.5

Transit: = −0.07 − 0.35 − 0.08 − 0.5

where

= total travel time (minutes)

= Waiting time (minutes)

= cost (dollars)

The travel characteristics between two zones are as follows:

Auto Transit
20 30
8 6
3.2 1

Solution:

Use the logit model to determine the percent of travel in the zone by auto and transit.

Auto: = −0.46 − 0.35(20) − 0.08(8) − 0.5(3.2) = −9.70

Transit: = −0.07 − 0.35(30) − 0.08(6) − 0.5(1) = −11.55

- .
= - . - .
= 0.8641
+
- .
= - . - .
= 0.1359
+

5 ASSIGNMENT
Submission Date: 15 April 2024

Determine the share (proportion) of person-trips by each of two modes (private auto
and mass transit) using the multinomial logit model and given the following
information:

Utility function: = − 0.05 − 0.04 − 0.03 − 0.014

 Parameter Private Auto Mass Transit
= access time (min.) 5 10
= waiting time (min.) 0 15
= riding time (min.) 25 40
= out-of-pocket cost (cents) 150 100
Calibration constant, -0.01 -0.07

6 REFERENCES
Cascetta, E. (2001). Transportation Systems Engineering: Theory and Methods.
Springer-Science.

Garber, N. J., & Hoel, L. A. (2009). Traffic and Highway Engineering (4th ed.). Toronto,
Canada: CEngage Learning.

Jotin Khisty, C., & Kent Lall, B. (2016). Transportation Engineering. Pearsons.

NPTEL. (2007). Introduction to Transportation Engineering.

Ortúzar, J. d., & Willumsen, L. G. (2011). Modelling Transport. New Delhi, India: John
Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Salter, R., & Hounsell, N. (1996). Highway Traffic Analysis and Design. New York, NY:
PALGRAVE.

Teodorovic, D., & Janic,, M. (2017). Transportation Engineering: Theory, Practice, and
Modeling. Elsevier Inc.