Chapter 3

Probability
3-1 Review and Preview
3-2 Basic Concepts of Probability
3-3 Addition Rule
3-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics
3-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and
Conditional Probability

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 Section 3-1
Review and Preview

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 Review

Necessity of sound sampling methods.

Common measures of characteristics of
data
Mean
Standard deviation

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 Preview

Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics:

If, under a given assumption, the

probability of a particular observed
event is extremely small, we conclude
that the assumption is probably not
correct.

Statisticians use the rare event rule for

inferential statistics.

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 Section 3-2
Basic Concepts of
Probability

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 Key Concept

This section presents three approaches

to finding the probability of an event.

The most important objective of this

section is to learn how to interpret
probability values.

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 Part 1

Basics of Probability

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 Events and Sample Space
 Event
any collection of results or outcomes of a
procedure
 Simple Event
an outcome or an event that cannot be further
broken down into simpler components
 Sample Space
for a procedure consists of all possible simple
events; that is, the sample space consists of all
outcomes that cannot be broken down any
further

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 Events and Sample Space

 Procedure
Roll a die

 Event
Get an even number {2, 4, 6} – contains three
simple events

 Simple Event
{2}

 Sample Space
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
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 Events and Sample Space

 Procedure
3 Consecutive Births

 Event
Two female children and one male

 Simple Event
Female, Female, Male

 Sample Space
{FFF, FFM, FMF, FMM, MFF, MFM, MMF, MMM}

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 Events and Sample Space

 Procedure
1 Birth

 Event
One female – all events are simple

 Simple Event
Female

 Sample Space
{F, M}

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 Notation for
Probabilities

P - denotes a probability.
A, B, and C - denote specific events.
P (A) - denotes the probability of
event A occurring.

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 Basic Rules for
Computing Probability
Rule 1: Relative Frequency Approximation
of Probability
Conduct (or observe) a procedure, and count
the number of times event A actually occurs.
Based on these actual results, P (A) is
approximated as follows:

# of times A occurred
P (A) = # of times procedure was repeated

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 Basic Rules for
Computing Probability - continued
Rule 2: Classical Approach to Probability
(Requires Equally Likely Outcomes)
Assume that a given procedure has n different
simple events and that each of those simple
events has an equal chance of occurring. If
event A can occur in s of these n ways, then

s
P (A)= n = number of ways A can occur
number of different
simple events
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 Basic Rules for
Computing Probability - continued

Rule 3: Subjective Probabilities

P (A), the probability of event A, is
estimated by using knowledge of the
relevant circumstances.

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 Computing Probability - continued

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 Law of
Large Numbers

As a procedure is repeated again and

again, the relative frequency probability
of an event tends to approach the actual
probability.

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 Probability Limits

Always express a probability as a fraction or

decimal number between 0 and 1.
 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

 The probability of an event that is certain to

occur is 1.

 For any event A, the probability of A is

between 0 and 1 inclusive.
That is, 0  P (A)  1.

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 Possible Values
for Probabilities

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 Complementary Events

The complement of event A, denoted by

A, consists of all outcomes in which the
event A does not occur.

Example : Roll a die. What is the probability of not getting a 4?

Let A be the event: get a 4. Then P(A) = 1/6

P(do not get a 4) = P (Ac) = P(A) = 1 – P(A) = 5/6

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 Rounding Off
Probabilities

When expressing the value of a probability,

either give the exact fraction or decimal or
round off final decimal results to three
significant digits. (Suggestion: When a
probability is not a simple fraction such as 2/3
or 5/9, express it as a decimal so that the
number can be better understood.)

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 Part 2

Beyond the
Basics of Probability: Odds

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 Odds
The actual odds against event A occurring are the ratio
P (A) / P (A), usually expressed in the form of a : b (or “a
to b”), where a and b are integers having no common
factors.
The actual odds in favor of event A occurring are the
ratio P (A) / P (A), which is the reciprocal of the actual
odds against the event. If the odds against A are a : b,
then the odds in favor of A are b : a.

The payoff odds against event A occurring are the

ratio of the net profit (if you win) to the amount bet.

payoff odds against event A = (net profit) : (amount bet)

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 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Rare event rule for inferential statistics.
 Probability rules.
 Law of large numbers.
 Complementary events.
 Rounding off probabilities.
 Odds.

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 Section 2-3
Addition Rule

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 Key Concept

This section presents the addition rule as a

device for finding probabilities that can be
expressed as P (A or B), the probability that
either event A occurs or event B occurs (or
they both occur) as the single outcome of
the procedure.
The key word in this section is “or.” It is the
inclusive or, which means either one or the
other or both.

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 Compound Event

Compound Event
any event combining 2 or more simple events

Notation
P (A or B) = P (in a single trial, event A occurs
or event B occurs or they both occur)

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 General Rule for a
Compound Event

When finding the probability that event

A occurs or event B occurs, find the
total number of ways A can occur and
the number of ways B can occur, but
find that total in such a way that no
outcome is counted more than once.

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 Do Not Double Count - Peas

How many peas have green pods OR purple flowers?

Incorrect: 8 green pods + 9 purple flowers = 17

Correct: 12 peas with green pods OR purple flowers,

counting each plant only once.
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 Compound Event

Intuitive Addition Rule

To find P (A or B), find the sum of the
number of ways event A can occur and the
number of ways event B can occur, adding
in such a way that every outcome is
counted only once. P (A or B) is equal to
that sum, divided by the total number of
outcomes in the sample space.

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 Compound Event: Intuitive Addition
Rule

A = Green pod B = Purple flower

Number of ways A or B can occur, counting each outcome

only once = 12

Total number of outcomes in sample space = 14

P (A or B) = 12/14
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 Compound Event

Formal Addition Rule

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B)
where P (A and B) denotes the probability
that A and B both occur at the same time as
an outcome in a trial of a procedure.

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 Compound Event: Formal Addition
Rule

A = Green pod B = Purple flower

P (A) = (5+3)/14 = 8/14 P (B) = (5+4)/14 = 9/14

P (A and B) = 5/14

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B)

= 8/14 + 9/14 – 5/14 = 12/14
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 Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive
Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually
exclusive) if they cannot occur at the same
time. (That is, disjoint events do not
overlap.)

Venn Diagram for Events That Are Venn Diagram for Disjoint Events
Not Disjoint

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 Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive
A : A randomly selected student from this class is male.
B : A randomly selected student from this class is female.

Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually exclusive). They cannot

occur at the same time.

C : A randomly selected student from this class is male.

D : A randomly selected student from this class is 21 years old.

Events C and D are not disjoint (or non-mutually exclusive).

They can occur at the same time.

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 Addition Rule – Disjoint
Events vs. Non-Disjoint
Events

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 Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive

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 Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive

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 Complementary
Events

A and A
are disjoint

It is impossible for an event and its

complement to occur at the same time.

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 Rules of
Complementary Events
P (A) + P (A) = 1
P(A) = 1 – P (A)
P (A) = 1 – P (A)

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 Venn Diagram for the
Complement of Event A

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 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Compound events.

 Formal addition rule.

 Intuitive addition rule.

 Disjoint events.

 Complementary events.

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 Section 3-4
Multiplication Rule:
Basics

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 Key Concept

The basic multiplication rule is used for

finding P (A and B), the probability that
event A occurs in a first trial and event
B occurs in a second trial.
If the outcome of the first event A
somehow affects the probability of the
second event B, it is important to adjust
the probability of B to reflect the
occurrence of event A.

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 Notation

P (A and B) =
P (event A occurs in a first trial and
event B occurs in a second trial)

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 Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram is a picture of the

possible outcomes of a procedure,
shown as line segments emanating
from one starting point. These
diagrams are sometimes helpful in
determining the number of possible
outcomes in a sample space, if the
number of possibilities is not too
large.

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 Tree Diagrams
This figure
summarizes
the possible
outcomes
for a true/false
question followed
by a multiple choice
question.
Note that there are
10 possible
combinations.

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 Conditional Probability
Key Point

We must adjust the probability of

the second event to reflect the
outcome of the first event.

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 Conditional Probability
Important Principle

The probability for the second

event B should take into account
the fact that the first event A has
already occurred.

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 Notation for
Conditional Probability

P(B|A) represents the probability of

event B occurring after it is assumed
that event A has already occurred (read
B|A as “B given A.”)

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 Dependent and Independent
Two events A and B are independent if
the occurrence of one does not affect
the probability of the occurrence of the
other. (Several events are similarly
independent if the occurrence of any
does not affect the probabilities of the
occurrence of the others.) If A and B
are not independent, they are said to be
dependent.

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 Dependent Events

Two events are dependent if the

occurrence of one of them affects the
probability of the occurrence of the
other, but this does not necessarily
mean that one of the events is a cause
of the other.

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 Formal
Multiplication Rule

 P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B A)

 Note that if A and B are independent

events, P(B A) is really the same as
P(B).

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 Intuitive
Multiplication Rule

When finding the probability that event

A occurs in one trial and event B occurs
in the next trial, multiply the probability
of event A by the probability of event B,
but be sure that the probability of event
B takes into account the previous
occurrence of event A.

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 Applying the
Multiplication Rule

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 Applying the
Multiplication Rule

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 Applying the
Multiplication Rule

Note that A and B are dependent

events. The occurrence of one affects
the probability of the occurrence of the
other.
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 Applying the
Multiplication Rule

Note that tossing the coin and rolling

the die are independent events. The
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the
other.
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 Caution

When applying the multiplication rule,

always consider whether the events
are independent or dependent, and
adjust the calculations accordingly.

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 Multiplication Rule for
Several Independent Events

In general, the probability of any

sequence of independent events is
simply the product of their
corresponding probabilities.

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 Treating Dependent Events
as Independent

Some calculations are cumbersome,

but they can be made manageable by
using the common practice of treating
events as independent when small
samples are drawn from large
populations. In such cases, it is rare to
select the same item twice.

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 The 5% Guideline for
Cumbersome Calculations

If a sample size is no more than 5% of

the size of the population, treat the
selections as being independent (even
if the selections are made without
replacement, so they are technically
dependent).

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 Principle of Redundancy
One design feature contributing to
reliability is the use of redundancy,
whereby critical components are
duplicated so that if one fails, the other
will work. For example, single-engine
aircraft now have two independent
electrical systems so that if one
electrical system fails, the other can
continue to work so that the engine
does not fail.
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 Summary of Fundamentals
 In the addition rule, the word “or” in
P(A or B) suggests addition. Add P(A)
and P(B), being careful to add in such a
way that every outcome is counted only
once.
 In the multiplication rule, the word
“and” in P(A and B) suggests
multiplication. Multiply P(A) and P(B),
but be sure that the probability of event
B takes into account the previous
occurrence of event A.
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 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Notation for P(A and B).

 Tree diagrams.
 Notation for conditional probability.
 Independent events.
 Formal and intuitive multiplication rules.

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 Section 3-5
Multiplication Rule:
Complements and
Conditional Probability

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 Key Concepts

Probability of “at least one”:

Find the probability that among several
trials, we get at least one of some
specified event.

Conditional probability:
Find the probability of an event when we
have additional information that some
other event has already occurred.
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 Complements: The Probability
of “At Least One”

 “At least one” is equivalent to “one or

more.”

 The complement of getting at least one item

of a particular type is that you get no items
of that type.

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 Finding the Probability
of “At Least One”

To find the probability of at least one of

something, calculate the probability of
none, then subtract that result from 1.
That is,

P(at least one) = 1 – P(none).

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 Finding the Probability
of “At Least One”
A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the probability
of getting at least one head

Let A be the event : at least one head

Sample Space: {TTT, HTT, THT, TTH, HHT, HTH, THH,
HHH}
Then Ac is the event: no heads = 3 tails = TTT
P(Ac) = P(TTT) = (1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/8

P(A) = 1 – P(Ac) = 7/8

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 Conditional Probability
A conditional probability of an event is a
probability obtained with the additional
information that some other event has
already occurred. P(B|A) denotes the
conditional probability of event B
occurring, given that event A has already
occurred, and it can be found by dividing
the probability of events A and B both
occurring by the probability of event A:
P(A and B)
P(B A) =
P(A)
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 Conditional Probability
P(A and B)
P(B A) =
P(A)

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 Intuitive Approach to
Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of B given A

can be found by assuming that event A
has occurred, and then calculating the
probability that event B will occur.

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 Confusion of the Inverse

To incorrectly believe that P(A|B) and

P(B|A) are the same, or to incorrectly use
one value for the other, is often called
confusion of the inverse.

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 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Concept of “at least one.”

 Conditional probability.

 Intuitive approach to conditional

probability.

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