Ground Motion Evaluation Procedures of Performance Based Design
Ground Motion Evaluation Procedures of Performance Based Design
Ground Motion Evaluation Procedures of Performance Based Design
www.elsevier.com/locate/soildyn
Abstract
The objective of performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) is the analysis of performance objectives with a specified annual
probability of exceedance. Increasingly undesirable performance is caused by increasing levels of strong ground motion having decreasing
annual probabilities of exceedance. Accordingly, the evaluation of ground motion intensity measures is a vital component of PBEE. This
paper provides a brief synthesis of ground motion analysis procedures within a performance-based design framework, and is a summary of a
recent report to which the reader is referred for details. The principal topics addressed are probabilistic characterizations of source, path, and
site effects, with the discussion of these effects focusing principally on applications in active regions such as California.
q 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Performance-based earthquake engineering; Intensity measure; Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses
Ground motion simulation: generation of synthetic given magnitude range, which enables the development of
seismograms using analytical models. magnitude-area scaling relationships from empirical data
Time history selection: de-aggregation of hazard, time [2,3]. These relationships can be used with known fault
history selection and scaling. dimensions to assign probable values of mu :
As shown in Fig. 2, several types of PDFs for earthquake
An overview of recent developments on these topics is magnitude ½f ðmÞ are used for seismic source zones,
provided here. Readers are referred to Ref. [1] for details. including truncated exponential (modified from Ref. [4]),
That report and this paper provide information on models characteristic earthquake [5], and maximum magnitude
and components of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses models. The choice of an appropriate model is often made
(PSHA). The overall PSHA computational formulation is on the basis of fault size and slip rate, or from observations
not presented here, but can be found in numerous references of historic seismicity. The rate of occurrence of earthquakes
including Ref. [1]. is derived by equating the rate of moment build-up on faults
(derived from slip rate and fault size) to the rate of moment
release [related to f ðmÞ]. Earthquakes can be assumed to
2. Source characterization occur at a fixed rate according to a Poisson process, or at a
time-varying rate that depends on the elapsed time since the
Faults are described as a series of segments (or a single previous event (time-predictable models).
segment) that can either rupture individually or in groups. A California hazard model [6,7] uses an A – B –C fault
A fault segment is characterized by an area (or length), a classification in which A-faults have relatively well-
probability density function (PDF) describing the relative constrained source parameters and large slip rates
likelihood of the fault producing earthquakes of different (s . 5 mm/yr). B-faults include most other faults in the
magnitudes ½f ðmÞ; and a long term slip rate. A fault state with s . 0.1 mm/yr, and have relatively poorly
segmentation model for the San Francisco Bay Area is constrained segmentation models and slip rates. C-faults
shown in Fig. 1. include poorly defined structures and background seismi-
Fault models are constructed so as to only allow moment city. A maximum magnitude model is used for A-faults with
release between m 0 and mu : Minimum magnitude is often dispersion set to zero and mode magnitude (mmax)
taken as m0 ¼ 5; although smaller values may be appropriate determined from magnitude-area scaling relations. B-faults
for stiff, brittle structures. Maximum magnitude is related to are modeled using a hybrid of: (1) a maximum magnitude
the stress drop that occurs on faults during earthquakes and model similar to that for A-faults and (2) a truncated
the size (area) of the fault segment. Stress drop is generally exponential model with m 0 ¼ 6.5 and m u ¼ mmax. Half of
observed to be reasonably consistent within a given tectonic the moment release is accommodated by the maximum
regime (e.g. active regions such as California) and over a magnitude model, and half by the truncated exponential
model. C-faults are modeled using a truncated exponential
distribution, with m0 ¼ 6 and mu # 7:3 for faults associated
with poorly defined structures (e.g. blind thrusts), and
m0 ¼ 5 and mu # 7 for background seismicity.
Fig. 1. Seismotectonic zones for San Francisco Bay region [2]. Fig. 2. PDFs for magnitude, f ðmÞ:
J.P. Stewart et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 22 (2002) 765–772 767
is also toward the site. This occurs because the velocity Fig. 7. Comparison of attenuation models for PHV in near fault, forward-
directivity regions, after Ref. [18].
of fault rupture is close to (generally slightly less than)
the shear wave velocity of the rock near the source.
Rupture-directivity affects the duration and long-period best described in the time domain. Models have been
energy content of ground motions, with the amplitude developed that describe time domain features of these
effect being polarized principally in the fault-normal velocity waveforms such as peak velocity, pulse period,
direction as shown in Fig. 6. Motions with forward and number of significant pulses [17 – 19]. Median
rupture-directivity typically exhibit a short-duration, large predictions of peak velocity based on these models are
amplitude pulse in velocity and displacement waveforms, shown in Fig. 7.
whereas motions with neutral or backward directivity Fling-step affects the peak velocity and displacement of
ground motions, and is best described in terms of time-
have long durations and relatively low amplitude. These
domain parameters. Statistical models for the amount of
effects are observed for r , 20– 60 km. Fling-step is
fling-step displacement have been compiled by Wells and
associated with permanent displacement across a ruptured
Coppersmith [3]. Models for the displacement rise time and
fault. Fling-step waveforms are characterized by offset
waveform shape are under development (Abrahamson,
displacements in the slip-parallel direction (Fig. 5), and
personal communication).
large, unidirectional velocity pulses.
Rupture-directivity affects the duration and long-period
energy content of ground motions. Engineering models for
spectral acceleration and duration have been developed by 5. Site effects
Somerville et al. [16] that adjust the results of attenuation
relations given near-fault geometric parameters (e.g. Ground motion attenuation relationships provide esti-
percentage of fault rupturing towards site, site-epicenter mates of IMs that typically apply for broadly defined site
azimuth). However, nonlinear structural response studies conditions such as rock or soil. Actual conditions at strong
have suggested that the most damaging feature of forward motion recording sites are highly variable with respect to
directivity ground motions is the velocity pulse, which is local ground conditions, possible basin effects, and surface
topography, and hence estimates from attenuation relation-
ships represent averaged values across the range of
possible site conditions. Analyses of site effects seek to
reduce the bias and dispersion of ground motion predic-
tions using information about site conditions. Bias is the
average misfit between observed ground motions and
model predictions. Dispersion is a measure of the degree to
which the analysis procedure can capture site-to-site
variations in ground motion.
A fundamental question related to the use of site effects
Fig. 6. Schematic diagram showing the orientations of fling-step and in hazard calculations is the impact that models incorpor-
directivity pulse for strike-slip and dip-slip faulting. ating increasingly detailed site characterizations have on
J.P. Stewart et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 22 (2002) 765–772 769
the bias and dispersion of ground motion predictions. The sediments generally having lower dispersion than older
following sections present recent work on models of sediments
increasing sophistication requiring increasing amounts of
site data to implement. The simplest of these models are 5.2. One-dimensional ground response
amplification factors that require only the identification of
an appropriate site category. More complex, site-specific One-dimensional ground response analyses are a means
models are discussed for 1D ground response and basin by which to adjust ground motion estimates at soil sites using
response. Surface topographic effects are not discussed. detailed information on shallow soil conditions (i.e. these
analyses are seldom performed for sediment depths . 100–
5.1. Amplification factors 200 m). All one-dimensional ground response calculation
methods assume vertical propagation of seismic waves and
Amplification factors represent the ratio of an IM for a horizontal soil layering. What distinguishes different anal-
specified site condition to the value expected for a reference ysis methods is the model for soil behavior, which ranges
site condition. Reference site conditions are typically intact from relatively simple models requiring few input par-
rock or a regional rock average. Amplification factors can be ameters (i.e. equivalent-linear) to more complex, fully
derived from observational data or numerical analyses. nonlinear analyses requiring a greater number of input
Amplification factors have been developed as a function of parameters.
detailed surface geology [20,21], shear wave velocity (Vs) in Ground response analyses are performed with the
the upper 30 m [21 – 23], and geotechnical-based classifi- expectation that accounting for nonlinear sediment response
cation systems [21,24]. Example amplification factors for reduces bias and dispersion in estimated motions at soil sites.
Quaternary alluvium are shown in Fig. 8. Insights into the ‘benefits’ of performing site-specific
Nonlinearity in amplification factors is demonstrated by characterization and analysis work have been developed by
statistically significant dependence on reference site peak Roblee et al. [26] through simulation exercises that evaluated
horizontal acceleration (PHA), and is more pronounced at the variability in soil motions arising from parametric
short than at long periods. Statistically significant variations variability in source, path, and site effects. A stochastic
in amplification factors have been observed at small periods model was used that incorporates a finite source, a range of
between categories such as Mesozoic and Tertiary rock, source-to-site distances, and an equivalent-linear analysis of
Quaternary alluvium, and Holocene lacustrine/marine 1D ground response. Repeated analyses performed with
deposits. Amplification factors have also been found to be randomization of relevant parameters showed that variability
dependent on depth to basement rock, which has been in ground motions arising from variability in soil properties
defined as having Vs ¼ 2.5 km/s [20,23,25]. can overwhelm the parametric variability of source and path
While the above models can significantly affect median for T , , 1 s. These results provide insight into the relative
IM predictions, dispersion of residuals calculated from importance of having information on shallow soil conditions
amplification factors (as measured by standard error terms) when estimating ground motions with simulations.
is not reduced significantly from the dispersion of Stewart and Baturay [27] compared the ability of a soil
attenuation models. However, there are variations in attenuation relation [9] and equivalent-linear ground
dispersion across site categories, with younger and softer response analyses to predict the response spectra of
recorded motions at soil sites. The ground response analyses
utilized large suites of control motions that were scaled to
match a modified rock attenuation median, but retain the
inherent randomness of the suite. By retaining this
variability, ground motions estimated from these response
analyses incorporate the variability in source/path effects
that is present in design situations for a fixed m and r. By
comparing the results to observation, bias and dispersion of
the predictions were evaluated. Dispersion of the residuals
from ground response ðsg Þ and soil attenuation ðsa Þ models
are compared in Fig. 9 for soft clay sites, and indicate
significant benefit of ground response for T , 1 s. This
benefit is moderate to negligible at longer periods and for
stiffer soil conditions.
Fig. 8. Amplification of short- and mid-period spectral acceleration for 5.3. Basin response
Quaternary alluvial sediments as function of peak horizontal acceleration
(PHA) on reference site condition. Results shown include median from
regression analysis and standard deviation of the median (Steidl) and At frequencies around 1 Hz and less, seismic waves can
^95% confidence intervals on the regression (Stewart et al.) have wavelengths longer than typical profile depths for
770 J.P. Stewart et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 22 (2002) 765–772
Fig. 9. Prediction dispersion for soft clay sites from 1D ground response
ðsg Þ and soil attenuation ðsa Þ: After Ref. [27].
ground motions from many smaller-magnitude earthquakes cal conditions, and that the selected time histories be
called subevents. The models differ in how they model the appropriately scaled.
subevents and how they sum them together (size, location,
and timing of subevents). Comparisons and tests of different
simulation procedures are described in Refs. [39,40]. 8. Conclusions and research needs
Long period motions are more-or-less deterministic in
the sense that theoretical seismology can be used to describe Calibrated procedures for developing probabilistic esti-
the waveforms and spectral content if source, path, and site mates of ground motion IMs are essential to the implemen-
characteristics are known. Features that can be modeled tation of PBEE. This paper and a recent PEER report [1]
include spatial variation of long-period ground motion provide an overview of contemporary procedures that
amplitude, waveforms near the ruptured fault, and basin- enable such calculations.
induced surface waves. These procedures are fairly well Despite recent progress, there remain significant
validated and can provide estimates of ground motions from research needs related to the probabilistic characterization
future earthquakes that are independent of empirical ground of source and path effects. With regard to source effects,
motion models. for many faults in California and elsewhere, critical
At high frequencies, theoretical predictions of ground parameters remain poorly constrained by existing geologic
motion levels are biased with respect to observed data. To data that contribute significant epistemic uncertainty to
produce unbiased estimates of the high-frequency ground hazard calculations. These include maximum magnitude
motions, numerical simulation procedures must add some ðmu Þ; slip rate, and time since the most recent large
form of randomness into the high-frequency ground earthquake. With regard to path effects, two particularly
motions. Different procedures use different approaches for critical needs include (1) data to constrain ground motion
incorporating the randomness. In general, some randomness levels from very large magnitude earthquakes (e.g. from
is added to the process or empirical recordings (which precarious rocks or simulation), and (2) simple models for
include the effects of randomness) are used for high- basin effects that enable such effects to be incorporated
frequency ground motions. into hazard calculations. Research on these issues is being
Since all simulation procedures require random or conducted within the Lifelines and core Programs of the
empirical model components at high frequencies, these PEER center.
aspects of the model require calibration against recorded Taking a broader view of ground motion characteriz-
motions. For this reason, numerical simulations typically do ation for use in PBEE, there is a need to develop IMs that
not do a better job of predicting high-frequency spectral provide optimal correlation to damage in structures.
accelerations than empirical attenuation models for magni- Moreover, since the nonlinear response of many structures
tudes and distances for which there are empirical data. While is correlated to multiple IMs, there is also a need to
simulations may do a better job of extrapolating to develop vector hazard capabilities. These research needs
magnitudes and distances not well represented in the are also being addressed within the PEER center.
empirical database since they have more physics behind
them, they nonetheless suffer from limitations similar to
those of empirical models. Namely, since the high-frequency
Acknowledgments
prediction is based on calibration to empirical data, how do
we know that the randomness in the numerical simulation is
This work was supported by the Pacific Earthquake
appropriate for magnitude-distance pairs outside of the
Engineering Research Center through the Earthquake
empirical data range? Additional calibration of simulation
Engineering Research Centers Program of the National
methodologies against recorded data is needed to answer
Science Foundation under Award number EEC-9701568.
these and other important questions.
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