Structural Engineering International

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Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on

Structural Actions

André Orcesi Dr, Alan O’Connor Prof., Dimitris Diamantidis Prof, Miroslav
Sykora Dr, Teng Wu Dr, Mitsuyoshi Akiyama Prof., Abdul Kadir Alhamid,
Franziska Schmidt Dr, Maria Pregnolato Dr, Yue Li Prof., Babak Salarieh,
Abdullahi M. Salman Prof, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga Prof, Olga Markogiannaki
Dr & Franck Schoefs Prof.

To cite this article: André Orcesi Dr, Alan O’Connor Prof., Dimitris Diamantidis Prof, Miroslav
Sykora Dr, Teng Wu Dr, Mitsuyoshi Akiyama Prof., Abdul Kadir Alhamid, Franziska Schmidt Dr,
Maria Pregnolato Dr, Yue Li Prof., Babak Salarieh, Abdullahi M. Salman Prof, Emilio Bastidas-
Arteaga Prof, Olga Markogiannaki Dr & Franck Schoefs Prof. (2022) Investigating the Effects of
Climate Change on Structural Actions, Structural Engineering International, 32:4, 563-576, DOI:
10.1080/10168664.2022.2098894

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Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Structural
Actions
André Orcesi , Dr, Cerema, Research team ENDSUM, DTecITM/DTOA/GITEX, Champs-sur-Marne, France; Department MAST-
EMGCU, Université Gustave Eiffel, IFSTTAR, Marne-la-Vallée, France; Alan O’Connor , Prof.; Trinity College Dublin, Ireland;
Dimitris Diamantidis , Prof., OTH Regensburg, Germany; Miroslav Sykora , Dr, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech
Republic; Teng Wu, Dr, University at Buffalo, USA; Mitsuyoshi Akiyama , Prof., Abdul Kadir Alhamid, Waseda University, Japan;
Franziska Schmidt , Dr, Department MAST-EMGCU, Université Gustave Eiffel, IFSTTAR, Marne-la-Vallée, France;
Maria Pregnolato , Dr, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Yue Li, Prof., Case Western Reserve
University, USA; Babak Salarieh; Abdullahi M. Salman , Prof., Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, The University of
Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, USA; Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga , Prof., LaSIE UMR CNRS 7356, La Rochelle University, La
Rochelle, France; Olga Markogiannaki , Dr, University of Western Macedonia, Greece; Franck Schoefs , Prof., GeM /IUML,
CNRS UMR 6183/FR 3473, Nantes Université, Ecole Centrale de Nantes, F44322 Nantes, France. Contact: [email protected].
DOI: 10.1080/10168664.2022.2098894

Abstract analysis, types of structures, method-

ology and objectives).3 The goal of
The changing climate with resulting more extreme weather events will likely IABSE TG6.1 is to characterize not
impact infrastructure assets and services. This phenomenon can present direct only the severity of impacts but also
threats to the assets as well as significant indirect effects for those relying on to give recommendations of adap-
the services those assets deliver. Such threats are path-dependent and place- tation strategies for management of
specific, as they strongly depend on current and future climate variability, structures in view of climate changes.4
location, asset design life, function and condition. One key question is how
climate change is likely to increase both the probability and magnitude of Some of the aspects covered in this task
extreme weather events under different scenarios of climate change. To group are presented in this paper to
address this issue, this paper investigates selected effects of climate change illustrate how different scenarios of
and their consequences on structural performance, in the context of evolving climate change may produce changes
loading scenarios in three different continental regions: Europe, North of the exposure in terms of intensity/fre-
America, and Asia. The aim is to investigate some main place-specific changes quency of extreme events, with a focus
of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events as well as on three different areas in the world:
the associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the Europe, North America, and Asia.
IABSE TG6.1. Climate change can significantly affect built infrastructure and The topic concerning Europe includes
the society by increasing the occurrence and magnitude of extreme events and the potential changes in the intensity
increasing potential losses. Therefore, specific relationships relating hazard of load patterns. One part of this
levels and structural vulnerability to climate change effects should be study investigates the effect of
determined. climate change on ground snow loads,
Keywords: climate change; extreme weather events; flooding; scour; hurricanes; river flooding, scouring effects, higher
sea-level rise; tsunami expected temperatures and conse-
quences of sea-level rise. Flooding is
one main reason that may affect the
Introduction extreme magnitudes of actions.1–2 scour risk of bridges located in rivers.
Concerning frequency, climate change Flood-induced actions on infrastruc-
The ageing and deterioration of civil may have an influence on the return tures are influenced by climate
engineering structures are likely to be period of extreme events (floods, change and present design practices
exacerbated in the next decades by extreme storm events, drought) that need to be adapted to provide for
the effects of climate change. On the may decrease, resulting in the same reliable structures over the desired
action side, one may observe an event having a higher likelihood in lifetime. The effect of the statistical
increase in both the probability and any given year.1 characteristics of annual maximum
magnitude of extreme weather flood event distributions (i.e. mean
In this context, IABSE TG6.1 was
events, such as heavy rainfall, snow, and standard deviations) and other
established in 2017 to bring together
sea-level rise and hurricanes. A types of asset and model uncertainties
a panel of international experts on
decrease of the mean value (for (such as foundation depth or scour
the effects of climate change on build-
example a reduction in the mean model uncertainties) on scour risk are
ings and civil engineering structures,
value of annual precipitation at a explored. The focus is on riverine
with the aim to promote technical dis-
location) may not necessarily translate bridges and the adverse impact due
cussions and gather existing global
in a more favourable condition since if to scour and hydrodynamic loads.
knowledge. The strategy is to focus
the variability (Coefficient of Vari- This study explores the relationship
on a number of relevant case studies
ation, CoV) increases at the same between flooding intensity measures
and to highlight common points
time, the upper tail of the distribution (flow velocity, depth) and damage to
between them when dealing with
may still increase, leading to more bridges on the basis of past available
climate change (e.g. scale of the

Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022 Scientific Paper 563

data. The importance of these topics as maritime, continental, or cold, often recorded ground snow loads in
has been recognized by several with significant dependence on the Central Europe has shown:
reports providing background infor- altitude of the site. The climate in low-
mation for ongoing revisions of the lands of Western-Central Europe and
Eurocodes.5–7 in the Mediterranean is characterized (1) Statistically significant decreasing
by an intermittent snow cover, that is, trends in annual maxima for the
Focusing on North America, the pre-
single or a few snowfalls followed by Swiss Alps13 and the Carpathian
sented study provides the assessment
often complete melting. In contrast, region,10 confirming the substan-
of hurricane surface wind, rain and
the climate in mountains, such as in tial decrease in snow depth and
surge hazards under a changing
the Alps and in the cold Northern snow coverage observed for
climate, which is achieved by perform-
regions, is characterized by a sustained Romania.14 In the Carpathian
ing advanced simulation components.
and accumulating snow cover. region this decreasing trend has
Hurricane events are generated for
both observed (historical) and pro- The background documents providing negligible or favourable effect on
jected climate conditions, and a sys- the probabilistic basis of climatic structural reliability.
tematical comparison between these actions modelling within the develop- (2) The effect of statistical uncertain-
two scenarios is investigated. In ment of the Eurocodes8–9 indicate ties was substantial,10 mainly
general, the simulation and comparison that annual maxima of the ground because the observation periods
of results highlight the important snow loads can be well described by were short in comparison with
effects of a global warming scenario a Gumbel distribution (EVI) for the the return periods considered in
on intensifying hurricane surface wind, sites located at low altitudes (<1000 structural reliability analyses.
rain and surge hazards, and hence m a.s.l.) with intermittent and irregu- Consideration of time trends and
impacting the performance of critical lar snow covers. In contrast, a extrapolation in time increases
civil infrastructure in hurricane-prone Weibull distribution (EVIII) seems this uncertainty.
areas (e.g. coastal structures). to be appropriate for the sites at (3) An increase in the variability of
high altitudes (>1500 m a.s.l.) where the meteorological effects might
In Asia, the rising sea levels could result in more frequent heavy
snow accumulation is significant. A
enhance negative impacts on coastal snowfalls especially in higher
detailed analysis10 focusing on the
communities. A procedure for estimat- mountainous regions as for
Carpathian region confirmed the
ing the failure probabilities of bridges example demonstrated by some
Weibull distribution for mountains
and embankment under tsunami roof failures in Bavaria.15
while arguing that a Fréchet (EVII)
hazard is thus established taking into
distribution provides the best fit for
consideration the sea-level rise.
lowlands. The US experience advo-
Monte Carlo-based tsunami propa-
cates a lognormal distribution11 that Reference [16] recently analysed
gation analysis is performed to obtain
has also been considered in some records of extreme ground snow
the tsunami hazard. Based on the com-
countries in Europe. loads in Europe from 1951 with pro-
parison of risk and resilience with and
jections until 2100. They showed that
without considering the climate Estimated fractiles with return periods
ground snow loads with a 50-year
change effect, whether the sea-level of 50 years and longer can be very sen-
return period could mostly decrease
rise has to be considered in the risk sitive to the chosen type of probabilis-
as a result of the projected decrease
assessment of coastal road networks tic distribution. This sensitivity further
of mean annual maxima, partly out-
under tsunami hazard is discussed in increases with the assessment methods
weighed by increased variability. For
an illustrative example. to be used, namely the statistical fra-
some regions, increasing extreme
mework (Generalized Extreme Value,
At present, the effects of climate ground snow loads were predicted,
Generalized Pareto Distribution,
change on the actions on structures including Mediterranean, Iberian
Point Processes, etc.), the parameter
are the subject of intensive research Peninsula, UK, Norway and Sweden.
estimation methods (such as Method
activities. Large uncertainties in the The study concluded that these
of Moment or Maximum of Likeli-
projections due to random physical climate change effects need to be
hood), the cleaning of the data and
processes evolving in time, lack of combined with the inherent uncer-
choices within the statistical methods
knowledge, and limited measurements tainty of climate models and scenarios
(for instance block length for GEV or
make all results vague and any gener- to assist decisions about adaptation
threshold value for GPD).
alizations doubtful. This study focuses measures.
on selected regions and actions and Reference [12] investigated the pre-
It appears that unambiguous rec-
aims to provide an overview of the dicted effects of climate change on
ommendations regarding the probabil-
existing knowledge. However, large the ground snow loads in Norway.
istic modelling of ground snow load
uncertainties related to all projections They concluded that the expected
extremes affected by climate change
should always be kept in mind. global temperature increase would, in
cannot be made considering the state-
the majority of the country, lead to
of-the-art knowledge. This is why
decreasing ground snow loads in
CEN/TC17 requires that the rec-
Changes of Load Patterns in 2070–2100. Yet, in some inner areas,
ommendations regarding climatic
Europe an increase in ground snow loads is
loads should be continuously devel-
predicted with the expected impact
oped and periodically revised, at
Effects on Ground Snow Loads on structural reliability.
minimum every 15 years. Expected
In respect of snow patterns, European Regarding milder snow climate trends of significant time-dependent
regions belong to various climates such regions, the statistical analysis of parameters should also be given.

564 Scientific Paper Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022

Effects on River Flooding In some cases, climate change has moving to non-stationary models.29
Flooding is a major natural hazard in been shown to induce more scattered This uncertainty could be reduced by
most of Europe.18 Climate change in events, meaning higher extreme incorporating predictions of global cir-
Europe is foreseen to increase risk of events, but also more frequent culation models. By incorporating
extreme events.25 Infrastructure man- climate model predictions, uncertainty
river flooding, particularly in North-
Western and Northern Europe.6 The agers concerned by the recent flood of large return period events (> 1000
JRC report7 concluded that Western episodes in France, Belgium and years) can be considerably reduced,30
Europe exhibited increasing flood Germany have noticed that 100-year though there are multiple caveats, for
occurrence as current 100-year events return events happen every few example a single relatively short
might manifest every about 30 years years, which is in agreement with measured realization of the Earth’s
the observations in the JRC report.7 climate is used for the validation of
in the 2080s. In other European
Similarly, rain events have been these models. It should be noted that
regions, projections of river floods
show higher spatial and temporal noticed to be longer in time, which flooding is affected by a wide range
variability, with lower and less signifi- is an issue for floods and scour. of factors other than changes in
cant patterns of changes: extreme precipitation, for example
These insights imply that trends in
human land use, that is, urbanization
occurrence rates and magnitudes of
.
can greatly increase the flood risk.31
In about 30% of Southern and events need to be analysed before an
Therefore, climate change is likely to
Eastern Europe, a significant appropriate distribution is selected to
affect weather patterns and the hydro-
decrease in extreme flood discharges describe a flood level or discharge,
logical cycle due to global warming,
is expected (with an increase in 10% given the occurrence of an extreme
increasing the frequency and magni-
of this region), event.
.
tude of rainfall and, as a consequence,
For 24% of Northern Europe, a sig-
Further, flood-induced risks will of flooding events. In particular,
nificant increase in extreme flood
increase due to increasing population climate change is expected to influence
discharges is projected while a sig-
in the future, which can be seen as a extreme (low-probability, high-
nificant decrease is estimated for
key reason for increased flood losses impact) events.32
23% of this region,
.
in Europe and other densely popu-
In Central Europe, areas with a sig- Results in literature show an intensifi-
lated regions with large areas of pave-
nificant increase (26%) dominate cation of extreme precipitation and
ments, vanishing gardens and parks,
over those with a projected decrease flood events over all climate regions,
poor drainage system maintenance
(15%). with non-uniform rates according to
etc. Based on the extensive review of
the region (due to different interacting
recent studies, Ref. [26] concluded
Numerous studies investigated trends drivers of extreme precipitation
that the flood risk has increased over
and severity in floods due to heavy changes).33,34 Analysis of the effects
many areas in Europe due to a range
rainfalls or snowmelt.18 It was esti- of climate change and identifying stat-
of climatic and non-climatic effects
mated that in a +2°C world 25% of istically significant time trends are
whose relative importance is site-
the people living in regions affected further complicated by many geo-
specific.
by fluvial floods would face increased graphical and meteorological factors
flood risk compared with the situation The 2013 flood of the Danube River that affect extreme discharges during
of no global mean temperature is considered thereafter as an floods and may evolve themselves
increase (no climate change). This example of measures taken after a over time. Possible climate change
percentage rises to 50% in a +4°C particular disastrous event. This effects may be overestimated by non-
world. Furthermore, the flood- flooding event brought the highest statistical influences that may have
affected population would increase ever recorded discharge in Bratislava developed during the period covered
to 211 and 544 million in the +2°C (Slovakia) and the highest ever by the measurements and may affect
and +4°C world, respectively.19 Obser- recorded water level in Budapest future extreme discharges. These influ-
vational data show increasing fre- (Hungary), along with other large ences include22:
quencies rather than the magnitudes floods in the neighbouring region.
of floods.20 Researchers immediately called for
. River management including main-
analysing the effect of climate
A range of probabilistic distributions tenance and/or restoration of flood-
change on floods and on reconsidera-
have been considered in modelling of plains, modifications of depth,
tion of design parameters of flood
extreme flood discharges. Examples width, and roughness of a river
defences. Reference [27] found out
of commonly applied models include channel, and removal of vegetation;
that in Germany - similarly as in
a Pearson III distribution with log- . Local paved areas affecting local
other locations - considerable
normal transformation of data, flood conditions;
increase in flood-related losses could
Gumbel (EVI) distribution, or a . Effects of deforestation, changes in
be expected due to climate change.
two-parameter lognormal distri- land use, and other human-made
bution.21–23 When a peak-over- Some researchers claim that the interventions in the environment,
threshold method is applied, a gener- assumption of stationarity cannot be etc.
alized Pareto distribution can be upheld and they call for non-stationary
used.24 Note that an appropriate models in water management.28
model should be selected on the Others point out that observations The hydrological data always require
basis of the statistical tests taking are limited and statistical uncertainty critical hydrological review to faith-
into account experience with distri- still governs extreme predictions, thus fully represent best knowledge about
butions of flows at other localities.22 there might be no practical gain in the flooding conditions.35

Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022 Scientific Paper 565

Effects on Flow Velocity in Rivers 200 or 500 year, by a percentage, that 25 years. A recent European study also
and Risk of Scouring is, 20–25%.43,44 The new UK guidance showed that the design thermal actions
on highway bridges have recently on bridges are expected to be affected
There is established consensus that the
updated climate change allowances, by climate change and the influence of
increased risk of scour to bridge piers
which have become location-specific.45 higher extreme temperatures.5
and abutments is one of the critical
However, in other national codes (e.g.
effects of climate change.36,37 For
the Italian Guidelines on Risk Classifi-
example, according to Ref. [36], Effects of Sea-Level Rise for
cation and Management of Bridges46);
bridge scour may increase by Coastal Infrastructures
climate change is not detailed in the
between 5% and 50% by the 2080s in
risk assessment of scour and hydraulic All models responsible for the projec-
the UK, depending on the bridge con-
risk.47 On the other hand, there are tion of future sea-level rise are driven
ditions and location. However, a quan-
studies that have been carried out by regional characteristics, which
titative assessment of the potential
recently which attempt to model, in makes local prediction important to
consequences of climate change on
more detail, the effect of climate identify potential impacts and to
bridge scour is missing38 and the need
change on the flood-frequency distri- improve planning for safety measures
to incorporate the effects of climate
butions and their effect on scour needed. For example, in the Mediter-
change (e.g. more intense, frequent
risk.38,48–50 For example, Ref. [51] ranean region there are numerous
rainfall) for assessing the associated
modelled the effect of climate change coastal areas that are potentially vul-
risk of bridge failures due to scour
as a variation in the parameters that nerable to flooding and erosion.
action still remains.39,40
underpin the annual flow distribution These issues coupled with future sea-
Scour depth is linked to the speed of (mean value, standard deviation). level rise should be explored
the water flow. Indeed, regarding the thoroughly. Reference [54] suggested
Structural Health Monitoring (SHM)
parameter time, without sediment a model that shows a spatially-aver-
provides a valuable tool for monitoring
transport, scouring grows slowly and aged projected sea-level rise by 2040–
bridges affected by climate change-
tends towards the asymptotic value, 2050 will be 9.8 and 25.6 cm in the
related flood damage,52 to understand
and the phenomenon is slow. But Mediterranean Sea in their minimum
bridge management actions (e.g.
with sediment flow, the scour hole is and maximum scenarios, respectively,
bridge closure, reduce traffic) to be
dug very quickly and oscillates values that are slightly smaller than
undertaken after a severe flood. The
around a mean value. This threshold the minimum and maximum likely
costs of bridge management actions
is an extreme depth, applicable for all ranges of variation assessed by the
are expected to increase as the intensity
cases of possible hydraulic flow.41 Cur- IPCC AR5 under the RCP6.0 scenario.
and frequency of flood events increase,
rently, alongside these long-term The Bank of Greece55 predicted sea-
since severe damage states are more
phenomena, rivers and their environ- level rise in the Greek coastal areas
likely to occur. On the other side, as
ment are exposed to short-term ones, by 2100 in a range from 0.2 to 0.59 m
climate change is leading to more
for example, aggressive water flows while conservative projections reach
extreme flood events, sensor monitor-
or flash floods. The force of the water 1.5–2 m. Although there are large vari-
ing could become more cost-effective
flow is similar to an impact force on ations in these projections, the effect of
in the future.
everything which happens to be on its sea-level rise on the frequency and
path, as for example bridge piers or intensity of natural hazard events is
bridge decks. These phenomena and unquestionable. Flooding caused by
Effects of Higher Expected
their consequences cannot be pre- the increased tidal or storm surge
dicted currently, and generally the Temperatures heights is one important hazard to
engineering work consists in conduct- With higher expected temperatures in structures that is affected by sea-level
ing some post-phenomenon remedial the future due to climate change, this rise. The coupling of tsunami hazard,
works and emergencies to describe may have an effect on the response of which is a cascading effect after
and explain what happened. civil engineering structures. One poten- strong earthquake events, with sea-
tial effect may be the fatigue stress level rise is also critical. Based on
Potential future increases in flooding
cycling of bridge structures. Reference recent events and historic records the
due to climate change need to be
[53] carried out a study in Denmark to potential impact of tsunamis can be
taken into consideration when design-
understand the influence of tempera- disastrous. However, the combination
ing new structures or assessing existing
ture on the response of orthotropic of tsunami actions with sea-level rise
ones. The challenge in accounting for
bridge decks; the authors utilized has not been yet sufficiently explored
climate change in scour assessments
long-term monitoring data collected (see Section 3). Even the occurrence
is that the sensitivity of peak river
on the Great Belt Bridge in terms of of mini tsunami events, as the one trig-
flows to climate change is likely to be
temperature and strains at various gered by the Samos earthquake of
different for various different types
locations of the bridge deck. The magnitude 7.0 Mw on 30 October
and locations of rivers. A framework
study confirmed the temperature 2020 that could be set to worsen with
for quantifying such sensitivities has
dependence of the stress ranges experi- sea-level rise, shows the significance
been recently proposed by Ref. [42].
enced at welded joints of the bridge of studying this coupling effect. There
In scour design and assessment codes,
deck, depending on their location with is an urgent need to determine these
the potential effects of climate
respect to the bridge’s pavement. It potential hazards based on regional
change are usually captured by
was shown that a mean air temperature characteristics and perform targeted
simply increasing the magnitude of
increase of 2.9°C by the year 2100 can vulnerability assessments on critical
the design flood, which is the river dis-
reduce the remaining fatigue life of coastal infrastructure (e.g. transpor-
charge for a given return period, that is
critical bridge details by approximately tation and electric power networks)

566 Scientific Paper Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022

located at the coastlines to identify climate will increase (with large model integrating not only the contri-
those that are at high risk. regional variations).60 Current bution of the SST but also other ther-
climate models project significant modynamic and dynamic variables
Besides, let us illustrate the effect on
changes in several environmental (such as vertical wind shear and con-
sheet piles in coastal infrastructures.
factors, including sea surface tempera- vective instability) has been
In France,56 25% of harbors’ infra-
ture (SST), environmental vertical developed.68
structures are built with sheet piles
wind shear, and moisture content and
and this percentage reaches 50% for Due to its simulation efficiency and
temperature at the tropopause
key economic or military infrastruc- accuracy, the enhanced TC track
level.61 Among them, the SST is
tures. Reference [57] illustrated with model developed by Ref. [68] can be
usually considered as the dominant
a case study that structural reliability effectively used in the context of a
one, linking climate and tropical
is mainly sensitive to the loading changing climate. To accurately
cyclone phenomena. Increases in sea
from the soil, except if large corrosion assess the TC hazard under changing
surface temperatures (SSTs) are
occurs. Sea-level rise acts on this climate, the probability of various
acknowledged to be a result of global
loading: first, on the position of the emission scenarios, conditional prob-
climate change due to increased CO2
permanent loading and on the inten- ability distribution functions (PDF)
emissions.62 WEF63 suggests that
sity of this loading in case of embank- of regional environmental factors
global average SST may increase 4°C
ment (Archimede effect) and second given a climate change scenario (con-
by 2060 based on the current trends.
on the position of cyclic loading due sidering inherent uncertainties and
Reference [64] found that the peak
to waves and tide, thus on the level of climate model differences) and con-
wind speeds of tropical cyclones
stress in the fatigue assessment. ditional PDF of each TC hazards
could increase by 5% for every 1°C
Additionally, there is a coupling with (e.g. wind, rain or surge) given a set
increase in SST. Elsner65 stated that
corrosion as the sea-level rise changes of environmental factors should be
climate change causes higher SST;
the vertical profile of corrosion carefully examined. The first two
warmer SST results in more energy
(Ref. [58]). For quantifying the relative uncertainties (involved in the emis-
which is converted to stronger TC
impact of this effect, Table 1 presents sion scenario simulations and climate
winds.
the effects of corrosion and sea-level models) have been well presented in
rise on the mean stress for the There have been efforts in the engin- the Section of “sea-level rise” discus-
RCP8.5 scenario applied to the case eering community to conveniently sion. The emphasis in this section
study of Ref. [59]. It is interesting to and efficiently consider the influence will be focused on coupling the
observe in this case that the sea-level of the warming climate on TC activi- enhanced TC track models and TC
rise decreases the stress and compen- ties by integrating the projected hazard models. The obtained assess-
sates the effect of the corrosion. environmental conditions into a TC ment framework of TC surface wind,
assessment framework (e.g. Refs. rain and surge hazards under a
[66,67]), generally involving a TC specific set of environmental factors
Tropical Cyclone track model (consisting of genesis, tra- of a future global warming scenario
Surface Wind, Rain and jectory, and intensity modelling com- is used thereafter to highlight the sig-
ponents) to generate the synthesized nificant implications of a changing
Surge Hazards in North storms. While there are several impor- climate to costal structures and
America tant environmental factors contribut- infrastructure.
ing to TC dynamics and
There remains significant debate about
thermodynamics (e.g. SST, wind
how rising greenhouse gas concen- Climate-dependent Stochastic
shear, convective instability, tempera-
trations affect tropical cyclones Simulation Framework of Tropical
ture at the top of atmospheric bound-
(TCs), however, the available global Cyclone Hazards
ary layer, and outflow temperature),
climate models and downscaling tech-
SST is usually the only consideration To adequately resolve TCs for obtain-
niques generally support the premise
in these downscaling exercises. To ing sustained wind speeds (or TC
that the frequency of destructive
address this issue, a nonlinear intensity intensity) with high accuracy, a very
high-intensity storms under changing
high resolution of current global
climate models (e.g. on the order of 1
km or less) is needed.69,70 To reduce
the computational costs of explicitly
Configuration Zone Stress (MPa) simulated storms, downscaling exer-
cises are typically used. Although
After 50 years After 100 years numerous environmental factors from
Without Without the outputs of climate models have
sea-level With sea- sea-level With sea- been identified as the factors that
rise level rise rise level rise have an influence on TC activities,
current engineering applications
Wharf exposed At the tie rods 83.95 81.267 84.16 74.436 mainly consider the effects resulting
to tide change from SST.
In the maximum −160.47 −149.01 −163.71 −138.84 TC-related hazards, namely, strong
bending area
wind speeds coupled with torrential
(immersion area)
rainfall and powerful storm surge,
Table 1: Effect of sea level rise on a sheet-pile wharf are expected to increase significantly

Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022 Scientific Paper 567

in the coming years because of the and rain hazards is presented in Fig. indicated that significant changes
effects of global warming.71–73 TC 1. Although each component of the would be expected. For example, the
surface wind, rain and surge hazards UB climate-dependent stochastic 100-year surge height for the present
under a changing climate can be simulation framework for TC climate is expected to become a 25–
accessed, for example, by performing hazards will undoubtedly improve 50-year occurrence under RCP 8.5 for
the climate-dependent stochastic over time, currently it provides a the studied locations. It is also
simulation framework of TC hazards guide on how to integrate atmospheric expected that sea-level rise will com-
developed at the University at science and wind (and coastal) engin- pound the impact of climate change
Buffalo (UB). The UB climate-depen- eering for effective evaluating effects on future surge hazards. It should be
dent stochastic simulation framework of climate change on TC surface noted, however, that surge heights
of TC hazards essentially consists of hazards. are not only a function of TC intensity.
three components, namely an Other factors such as topography,
enhanced TC track model to generate Impact of Climate Change on bathymetry, and geographic layout
the synthesized storms (including a Storm Surge Using the Slosh Model play a huge role and directly impact
physics-based intensity model inte- the resulting surge height. Further-
grating SST, wind shear, and convec- An alternative to the artificial neural more, variations in other TC par-
tive instability contributions),68 a network-based model discussed ameters such as heading angle,
novel thermal wind balance-based above for modelling storm surge translational speed, and landfall
model to simulate the gradient wind hazard is the use of physics-based location also play a crucial role in
profiles (explicitly considering models such as the Sea, Lake, and surge heights.
environmental conditions of SST, Overland Surges from Hurricanes
temperature at the top of atmospheric (SLOSH) model.79 Here, a case The scenario-based approach used
study is presented to generate the pro- here does not consider the likelihood
boundary layer, and outflow tempera-
jection of future storm surge hazards of the various IPCC emission scen-
ture),74 and efficient hazard models
for selected locations across the arios. The likelihood of the scenarios
for wind, rain and surge simulations.
Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions of has been a subject of much discussion.
Specifically, a height-resolving bound-
the U.S., considering the impact of Reference [81] assessed the effect of
ary-layer model was developed to
the rise in sea surface temperature current Intended Nationally Deter-
obtain the surface wind and rain
(SST). To generate the surge hazard, mined Contributions (INDCs) of
fields (reducing inherent uncertainties
20,000 TC years are simulated using countries outlining their post-2020
associated with conventionally used
a validated TC simulation model climate action and concluded that a
gradient-to-surface wind speed con-
based on the Empirical Track Model median surface temperature warming
version factors),75–77 and an efficient,
artificial neural network-based model (ETM) first proposed by Ref. [80] of 2.6–3.1°C is expected by 2100.
Projected future SST is obtained Such an increase indicates that a scen-
(i.e. multi-layer feedforward backpro-
from the Coupled Model Intercom- ario between RCP 6.0 and 8.5 is likely.
pagation network) was developed to
parison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for Some researchers have argued that the
predict storm surge using the standard
use in the simulation. The SLOSH RCP 8.5 scenario is more likely than
TC parameters as inputs, namely,
model is employed for the storm originally thought because of factors
central pressure, translational speed,
surge analysis. such as the release of greenhouse
radius of maximum winds, and storm
gases from thawing permafrost, which
track.78 The machine learning-based Figure 2 shows the projected changes are larger than currently esti-
model is constructed using the large in surge height at the end of the mated.82,83 Other researchers have
database of synthetic tropical storms twenty-first century in eight locations argued that the RCP 8.5 scenario is
obtained from the U.S. Army Corp across the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. becoming increasingly implausible
of Engineers through NACCS. The Three RCPs (RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5) partly because it will require a fivefold
NACCS database is accessible are considered for the analysis. As increase in coal use, which is highly
through the Coastal Hazards System expected, there is a rise in surge level unlikely, and the cost of clean energy
web tool (https://chs.erdc.dren.mil/ observed across the studied locations sources will continue its falling
default.aspx). The schematic of the due to increased TC intensity. An trend.84 There is an increasing call for
UB climate-dependent stochastic analysis of the impact of the changes a risk-based or probabilistic approach
simulation framework for TC wind in SST on surge return periods also to modelling future climate scenarios.
However, there are several challenges
to moving to such an approach. The
main challenge is that probabilistic
climate scenarios might underestimate
the uncertainty because of an
inadequate number of global climate
model runs due to computational
limitations and the use of improper
probability distributions in models.85
Also, the likelihood of the various
scenarios will keep changing con-
stantly and will need to be updated as
Fig. 1: UB climate-dependent stochastic simulation framework for TC wind and rain
new data is collected and climate
hazards74 (Note: Vs is wind shear, C is convective instability, TTBL is temperature at the top
models are being updated.86
of the atmospheric boundary layer, and T0 is outflow temperature)

568 Scientific Paper Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022

 scenario (2081–2100) subjected to the
RCP 8.5 was carried out in Ref. [68]
based on UB climate-dependent sto-
chastic simulation framework of TC
hazards for the northeast United
States coastline. A total of 10,000
years of TC events were generated
for both historical and projected
climate conditions. TC surface wind
speed and rain rate were characterized
in terms of the MRI (mean recurrence
interval). In general, higher TC surface
wind speeds and rain rates were
obtained for all levels of MRIs, with
changing climate, based on the
selected global climate model. For
example, the wind speed correspond-
ing to a 50-year MRI was projected
under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario
to increase by approximately 14% at
a location of Monmouth County, New
Jersey and an increase of 27% in the
rain rate corresponding to a 100-year
MRI was projected at a location of
Nantucket County, Massachusetts.
The obtained simulation results indi-
cate that TC surface wind and rain
risk mitigation and adaption for civil
structures and infrastructures in
coastal regions are necessary in light
of a changing climate scenario.
Studies are suggesting that TC hazard
patterns may change due to a changing
global climate. In addition to changes
in TC wind and rain, TC-induced
Fig. 2: Changes in storm surge hazard from 2020 to 2100 for different Mean Recurrence storm surge may also change as a
Intervals (MRI) under RCP 8.5 result of climate change. Low-lying
coastal areas are particularly suscep-
Implications for Coastal Structures damage costs. Reference [89] assessed tible to storm surge and the effects
damage risks and the cost-effective- on communities can be catastrophic.
and Infrastructures
ness of designing new housing to be Reference [78] coupled the UB
Direct and indirect economic losses climate-dependent stochastic simu-
less vulnerable to TCs. References
associated with TC wind, rain and lation framework of TC with a newly
[90–91] proposed a conceptual frame-
surge hazards are expected to increase developed machine learning-based
work for estimating TC damage risks
with growing coastal populations and surge model to assess storm surge
to residential construction in Florida
associated structures and infrastruc- hazard risks to coastal bridges under
considering the change in wind speed
tures in coastal regions.87 Such losses changing climate conditions. Their
as a result of climate change, as well
are expected to increase because of a simulation results (at a control point
as TC-induced surge considering
changing climate. Hence, TC risk-
climate variability in Miami-Dade of 41.05o Latitude and –71.96o Longi-
assessment models must be able to tude) suggested that changing climate
County, Florida, New Hanover
account for the non-stationary will have a significant, negative effect
County, North Carolina and Galves-
aspects of TCs, to account for the on the annualized rate of bridge clo-
ton County, Texas in the USA.
potential effects of climate change on sures, with the attendant direct and
TC damage costs. However, many Among TC hazards, wind and rain indirect economic losses. For
existing models that estimate TC hazards are of great significance since example, the annual probability of
damage costs as a function of wind a substantial part of economic and exceedance increases from 2.6%
speed assume that the wind speed is life losses resulting from TC events under the historical climate to approxi-
stationary. Reference [88] developed are directly or indirectly related to mately 15% under RCP 8.5 for a 2 m
a framework for TC risk assessment them (e.g. wind-induced structural storm surge threshold (a criterion
in Queensland, Australia. The frame- damage, wind-driven rain penetration, that triggers bridge closure). This situ-
work assessed the impacts the chan- and inland flooding). A systematical ation becomes even worse if sea-level
ging global climate may have on comparison of the simulation results rise under changing climate is con-
damage costs, and found that increas- between the historical climate scenario sidered. IPCC92 stated that the global
ing TC wind speeds could increase (1991–2010) and future climate mean sea level (GMSL) is projected

Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022 Scientific Paper 569

to rise by 0.28–1.02 m (likely range) thus it may still be the case that resol- the resilience of coastal communities
under the new Shared Socioeconomic ution is a factor limiting analyses of under future disasters.
Pathways (SSP) scenarios, and has esti- storm intensity; improvements in res-
Significant research efforts have been
mated that GMSL has already olution are expected to be beneficial
made to develop a model to project
increased by 0.2 m between 1901 and for future studies. Regarding (2), an
the future sea-level rise. These
2018. Some regions in the U.S., are increase in the frequency and magni-
models are developed mainly based
identified as extremely sensitive to tude of severe convective storms will
on two approaches: process-based
sea-level rise. For example, regarding influence the statistical properties of
and semi-empirical approaches. The
the New York Metropolitan Area, wind pressures. However, it seems
process-based approach employs a
Ref. [93] states that sea level is pro- that the explicit simulation in global
grid-based numerical ocean and
jected to rise along the tidal Hudson or regional model studies is unfeasible
atmosphere circulation using climate-
by 0.05–0.254 m (2–10 in.) by the in the near future. CEN/TC17 con-
related prognostic equations, namely
2020s, 0.20–0.76 m (8-–30 in.) by the cludes that the indications of a
the General Circulation Model
2050s, 0.33–1.47 m (13–58 in.) by the certain increase of wind extremes in
(GCM).99 Conversely, despite the
2080s and 0.48–1.75 m (15–75 in.) by Northern Europe and Northern parts
inadequate representation of the phys-
the 2100s, while the need for the adap- of Central Europe may be expected
ical process, the semi-empirical
tation of coastal infrastructure to sea- while Southern Europe may expect
approach evaluates the future sea-
level rise has been identified in numer- fewer extreme wind storms. However,
level rise statistically based on the
ous studies (e.g. [94,95]). Sea level rise the results significantly depend on the
past data by developing the relation-
affects directly the height of storm climatic model used.
ship between the observed tempera-
surge, since it is directly added upon
Apparently, the projections of severe ture and sea-level rises (e.g. [102]).
it.96 The combination of rising static
wind events are associated with large However, though many previous
water levels and the increase in the
uncertainties. For instance, Ref. [98] studies have been devoted to investi-
severity and frequency of TC events
observes some consistency amongst gating the future sea-level rise trends,
will lead to increasing submergence
the projections by different models its projection remains highly
and flooding of coastal areas and
for extreme wind pressures over uncertain.
even accelerated rates of coastal
Canada but underline that these are
erosion. Increasing storm intensity The uncertainties associated with sea-
subject to considerable uncertainty
means that the risk of severe storm level rise arises from several aspects,
due to the general inability of coarse
surge flooding for coastal communities including the amount of emitted
resolution climate models to resolve
will rise, as well. Reference [97] pre- greenhouse gas concentration (i.e.
many of the physical processes that
sented a risk assessment methodology climate change scenario),103 ocean
drive extreme winds. They conclude
for coastal bridges that accounts both and geophysical processes such as
that confidence in these projections is
for TC-induced storm surge and sea- ocean circulation and ocean bottom
very low. According to CEN/TC,17
level rise and shows how climate pressure change, and the spatial varia-
presently broadly accepted methods
change affects risk values. bility of sea-level rise due to the dis-
to assess the non-stationary behaviour
tributed location of the glacier and
of extremes in time and space are
ice sheet mass. An extensive
Notes on Wind Actions in Other missing and further research is
summary of sea-level rise uncertainties
Regions and Associated needed to adequately capture uncer-
has been provided by Ref. [104]
Uncertainties tainties in projections (including stat-
ranging from global to regional scale.
istical and model uncertainties).
In general, it is recognized that wind One of the highlighted uncertainties
pressures are a major climatic action includes the sea-level rise projections
for many structures all around the among GCMs. Sea-level rise projec-
Globe. Besides hurricanes, (1) synop- Sea-level Rise Multi-hazards tions among GCMs are considerably
tic storms and (2) thunder storms in Asia varied since each climate model
cause frequently damage to built infra- group employed different prognostic
structures. However, available knowl- The Intergovernmental Panel on formulas and approaches during the
edge is often inconclusive and Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assess- modelling process.
significantly region-dependent. For ment Report (AR5) suggested that
Therefore, the probabilistic approach
Europe, the report focused on the the potential climate change impact
of sea-level rise assessment is deemed
climate change effects in Europe by might considerably exacerbate coastal
appropriate to consider all of the uncer-
CEN/TC17 indicates that regarding hazards at a regional scale.99 One note-
tainties mentioned above.105 An appro-
(1), the lack of consensus on the sig- worthy aspect highlighted in the IPCC
priate framework for probabilistic sea-
nificance of observed trends in tropical AR5 is the global and regional scale
level rise hazard assessments can be
cyclone statistics poses a challenge to sea-level rise, which could aggravate
developed by utilizing the sea-level
the interpretation of projections for the coastal hazards to a greater
rise projections from the process-
tropical cyclones. Climate model- extent, such as typhoon-induced
based approach to perform a statistical
based simulations are expected to be storm surges100 and flooding due to
analysis of GCMs and other sea-level
extensively employed and generate the precipitation level increase.34 In
rise models. Finally, the sea-level rise
larger sample sizes than those cur- addition, a study has revealed that 0.5
uncertainties can be integrated with
rently available from observations. To m of sea-level rise is sufficient to
future coastal disasters to promote
model extratropical cyclones, the double the local tsunami hazard.101
better climate change adaptation strat-
current global climate models may Therefore, sea-level rise assessment
egies for coastal communities.
still have insufficient resolution and serves as a crucial task to enhance

570 Scientific Paper Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022

Framework for Probabilistic Sea- Figure 3 shows the flowchart for esti- FGSTR is estimated using the ocean
level Rise Hazard Assessments mating the regional total sea-level bottom pressure (OBP) change data
rise hazard.107 Each regional sea-level from the Norwegian Earth System
Several studies have carried out the
rise component’s probability density Model (i.e. NorESM1-M) as suggested
probabilistic projections of sea-level
function (PDF) is estimated differently by Ref. [114]. The OBP change data is
rise by analysing each component
by utilizing their corresponding uncer- assumed as static loading and con-
according to their uncertainty source
tainties. Based on statistical analysis, verted into a regional sea-level rise
and including their local variability.
the sterodynamic sea-level rise PDF S associated with self-attraction and
For instance, Ref. [106] suggested
is assessed using the available GCMs loading (SAL) effects by employing
that on a modest climate change scen-
from the Coupled Model Intercompar- the sea-level equation solver from
ario (i.e. RCP 4.5), the sea-level rise
ison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on stat- Ref. [113] and normalized with its
due to the oceanographic process
istical analysis.108 It should be associated global mean value. Finally,
from GCM projections could be 0.13–
emphasized that before utilizing these each global mean sea-level rise PDF
0.4 m on a global scale in 2100. In
models, several preprocessing steps is multiplied by its corresponding sea-
terms of total sea-level rise (i.e. combi-
should be carried out, such as model level fingerprint using Monte Carlo
nation of oceanographic process, ice
drift correction due to the dynamical simulation (MCS) to obtain regional
sheets, glaciers, and ice caps), the
imbalance of the GCM initial con- sea-level rise PDF for each com-
global sea level is expected to rise in
dition and grid interpolation due to ponent, as shown in Fig. 3.
the range of 0.36–0.96 m in 2100.
the difference in ocean grid resol-
Nevertheless, these uncertainties Each sea-level rise component is
ution.105 In terms of the global mean
associated with the ice sheet sea-level assumed perfectly correlated with
glacier sea-level rise PDF G, the
rise from previous studies were justi- each other since they increase simul-
glacier models involved in the Glacier
fied according to the expert elicitation taneously with respect to global
Model Intercomparison Project (Gla-
and were carried out by disregarding warming over time. By applying the
cierMIP)109 can be employed. Finally,
the dependencies between sea-level convolution of probability distri-
the global mean ice sheet sea-level
rise components. The complete frame- butions concept and incorporating the
rise PDF I is evaluated based on the
work for probabilistic sea-level rise occurrence probability of climate
surface mass balance component
hazard assessments as complementary change scenario defined as representa-
using the volume above floatation
from previous research has been pre- tive concentration pathway (RCP), the
(VAF) change data110 and the ice
sented by Ref. [107] and discussed cumulative distribution function
sheet dynamics assessment following
briefly herein. (CDF) of regional sea-level rise
the method proposed by Ref. [111]
hazard can be evaluated according to
The complete framework for prob- The details for each component’s
Ref. [107]. There has been no estab-
abilistic sea-level rise hazard assess- assessment can be found in Ref. [107]
lished consensus associated with the
ments has been presented by Ref.
The sea-level rise fingerprints for each likelihood of each future climate
[107] First, the regional sea-level
sea-level rise component are also esti- change scenario, considering that they
rise, defined as the sea-level rise in
mated differently depending on each are dependent on energy and land-
a particular location in the ocean, is
source location. The glacier and ice use trends. For simplicity, the likeli-
estimated by multiplying each global
sheet sea-level fingerprint can be esti- hood between RCP scenarios is
mean sea-level rise component (i.e.
mated using the land-water mass assumed to be the same herein.107
the average value of sea-level rise
change data from the Gravity and Future studies should be further devel-
over the ocean) with its correspond-
Recovery Climate Experiment oped to consider the likelihood of RCP
ing spatial variability (hereafter
(GRACE).112 The land-water mass scenarios.
referred to as sea-level finger-
changes in the corresponding glacier
print).105 Three sea-level rise com- Figure 4 illustrates the regional total
and ice sheet locations are converted
ponents are considered herein: (1) sea-level rise hazard map and the sea-
into sea-level rise fingerprints by
sterodynamic sea-level rise due to level rise hazard evaluated over the
applying the sea-level equation solver
thermal expansion and dynamical Macau Special Administrative Region
provided by Ref. [113]. On the other
ocean currents; (2) glacier sea-level for the year 2100 with respect to the
hand, the sterodynamic sea-level rise
rise due to surface mass balance;
and (3) ice sheet sea-level rise due
to dynamical ice shelf basal melting.
The surface mass balance represents
the net loss of snow accumulation
and ice mass melting of the glacier
and ice sheet, while the dynamical
ice shelf basal melting is caused by
the detachment of the ice shelf
from the bedrock due to ocean
warming, which accelerates the ice
sheet flow into the ocean. To gener-
ate a more representative outcome,
further study is needed to consider
other non-climatic sea-level rise com-
ponents including tectonics and
glacial isostatic adjustment. Fig. 3: Proposed framework for estimating regional total sea-level rise hazard107

Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022 Scientific Paper 571

present. The sea-level rise hazard propagation analyses. The tsunami capacity to withstand a certain level
shown in Fig. 4 is calculated based on hazard curves for the northeast of tsunami impact (including several
the procedure shown in Fig. 3. For Macau Peninsula are evaluated under plausible failure modes such as over-
illustrative purposes, the Macau 0.0, 0.5, and 1.0 m of sea-level rise. topping of seawall and dikes instability
Special Administrative Region is For demonstration purposes, the due to progressive erosion), and the
selected as the analysed area following return period expression is converted increasing return period of the
Ref. [101] to investigate the potential into exceedance probability and tsunami due to sea-level rise. Since
application of the proposed frame- interpolated to facilitate the evalu- the previous study has pointed out
work, as discussed later. As shown in ation of the total probability theorem that sea-level rise could also extend
Fig. 4, it can be inferred that sea-level numerically (e.g. MCS, numerical inte- the tsunami impact spatially,101 a
rise hazard varies considerably gration), as shown in Fig. 5b. By con- higher safety level of coastal defense
depending on the ocean location. volving the conditional tsunami should be addressed for more popu-
Therefore, an appropriate sea-level hazard curve with the sea-level rise lated and capital intensive regions.
rise hazard should be evaluated hazard provided in Fig. 4c, a tsunami
In addition to the coastal defense as a
accordingly based on the correspond- hazard curve considering the effects
systematic mitigation effort, the
ing analysed coastal area. The evalu- of sea-level rise can be obtained, as
tsunami damage on bridge structures
ated sea-level rise hazard can be shown in Fig. 5c. The tsunami hazard
should be controlled through more
utilized to investigate the potential curve increases when considering the
adequate design criteria to allow a
intensification of coastal hazards due effects of sea-level rise. Depending
rapid restoration process. Under the
to sea-level rise. on the exposure of the analysed infra-
intensified tsunami impacts due to
structures, the potential impact of
sea-level rise effects, the bridge’s sub-
small tsunamis should not be underes-
Integration with Other Coastal structure should be designed in a satis-
timated since it could generate a con-
Hazards factory performance such that it
siderable amount of economic loss,
remains functional and intact for emer-
In order to integrate the effects of sea- casualties, and disaster waste that
gency transport (e.g. controlling the
level rise uncertainties into other could impede the recovery
excessive deformation and well
coastal hazards, such as tsunami and process.115,116 Moreover, although the
design against washout). Hence, the
storm surges, a rigorous numerical- results presented in this study are
above concerns imply that the risk of
based simulation considering different demonstrated with an emphasis on
tsunami under sea-level rise effects
cases of sea-level rise should be carried the year 2100, the time frame for
necessitates a more comprehensive
out. Reference [101] provided a dem- decision-making has to be justified
reassessment of standards for the
onstration in investigating the depending on stakeholder interests.
design or assessment of structures to
tsunami hazard increase due to sea- Further study is needed to investigate
promote resilient coastal communities.
level rise in the Macau Special Admin- time-dependent sea-level rise effects
istrative Region. Prior to performing in other regions under tsunami hazard.
the tsunami simulations, they determi-
The inclusive coastal hazards inte-
nistically decreased the bathymetry Conclusions
grated with sea-level rise effects
and topography to simulate sea-level
could provide more appropriate
rise effects. Complementary to their By considering specific examples
climate change adaptation strategies.
study, the conditional tsunami hazard where climate change may produce
In terms of tsunami risks, a mitigation
can be integrated with the sea-level changes of load patterns, this paper
plan should be implemented through
rise hazard provided in Fig. 4 accord- provides some key topics when
an adequate design of coastal defense
ing to the total probability theorem dealing with the effects of climate
structures to minimize the associated
proposed by Ref. [107]. change in three different continental
consequences. The current philosophy
regions: Europe, North America, and
Figure 5a shows the conditional of coastal structure safety level
Asia. Common engineering experi-
tsunami hazard curve given a specific should be reconsidered based on the
ence suggests that it is more effective
sea-level rise value estimated by Ref. corresponding hydraulic standards of
to immediately adapt design strategies
[101] based on numerous tsunami the coastal protection, the inherent
for foreseen climate change effects
rather than excessively investing into
upgrading of insufficiently durable
and unreliable structures in the
future. Provisions for uncertainties in
present design procedures provide a
buffer against early manifestations of
climate change effects. Using
advanced climate modelling to
resolve these uncertainties is therefore
the first logical step towards adjust-
ment of design procedures to account
for the imminent and expected
impacts of climate change. The pre-
sented overview of various effects of
Fig. 4: (a) Regional total sea-level rise hazard map, (b) location and analysed grid con- climate change on built infrastructures
taining Macau, and (c) sea-level rise hazard for Macau leads to the following conclusions:

572 Scientific Paper Structural Engineering International Nr. 4/2022

 Acknowledgements
This study is an outcome of IABSE TG6.1.

Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was
reported by the author(s).

ORCID
Fig. 5: (a) Conditional tsunami hazard curves for the northeast Macau Peninsula provided André Orcesi http://orcid.org/0000-
by Li et al.97, (b) interpolated conditional tsunami hazard curve, and (c) integrated tsunami 0001-7011-0940
hazard curve considering sea-level rise effects Alan O’Connor http://orcid.org/
0000-0001-6391-5484
Dimitris Diamantidis http://orcid.
(i) climate change has an impact on the World Meteorological Organ-
org/0000-0001-8115-0753
future extreme environmental ization calculates climate normals
Miroslav Sykora http://orcid.org/
actions on structures and should on the basis of averages over 30
0000-0001-9346-3204
be considered. However, more years;
Mitsuyoshi Akiyama http://orcid.
data, models and other infor- (v) structural behaviour models
org/0000-0001-9560-2159
mation are necessary in order to affected by climate change will
Franziska Schmidt http://orcid.org/
better extrapolate future predic- become more important as some
0000-0001-9277-9805
tions of environmental actions, structures can be expected in the
Maria Pregnolato http://orcid.org/
for example, wind, hurricane, future to be “overloaded” to
0000-0003-0796-9618
heat, snow and flood actions; some extent due to climate
Abdullahi M. Salman http://orcid.
(ii) essential contribution of meteor- change; sufficiently robust struc-
org/0000-0001-6764-5979
ologists and statisticians to civil tures should be provided to
Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga http://
engineering includes improved sustain such overloading without
orcid.org/0000-0002-7370-5218
projections for trends and excessive damage.
Olga Markogiannaki http://orcid.
extremes in local weather events,
org/0000-0002-2918-6932
and specification of uncertainties
Franck Schoefs http://orcid.org/
in events associated with 100- to Critical infrastructure represents a key 0000-0002-7559-6182
1000-year return periods; element of all sectors of the economy
(iii) periodic review of statistical data (e.g. transportation, energy) and their
and probability models related continuous operation is of critical References
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