Probability & Statistics

MATH F113

Dr Mayank Goel

Department of Mathematics
BITS Pilani KK Birla Goa Campus

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Outline

1 Examples

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 1

Example
A company ’A’ plans to supply raw material to company ’B’ on a daily
basis according to a Poisson process at the rate of 1 unit/day. Each
day company ’B’ is supposed to run a quality testing process before
accepting the supplied raw material from ’A’. If the acceptance of each
unit of supplied material is independent with probability 0.8, using ran-
dom numbers 0.20, 0.75 and 0.66 exactly once in the given order,
simulate the number of units accepted in the first and the second day.

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 2

Example
Buses arrive at a sporting event according to a Poisson process
with a rate 5 per hour. Each bus is equally likely to contain either
20, 21, 22, 23 fans, with the numbers in the different buses being inde-
pendent. Using random numbers 0.92,0.20,0.80, simulate the arrival
of fans to the event by time t = 0.1 hours.

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 3

Example
Suppose two friends A and B are waiting for their friend C. The waiting
time for C follows uniform distribution with minimum 0 to maximum 2
hours. The two friends A and B decide to play a series of “dice” game
during this waiting period. In each “dice” game either one (A or B) is
owner and other one is called player. Owner always bet over number
1 and throws an unbiased die, if 1 appears on the die, owner wins and
receives $6 from player else owner need to pay $3 to the player. The
winner of the game will be the next game’s owner and looser will be
the player. If the total number of games played during waiting time
follows Poisson distribution with mean 3 per hour and the owner of the
first game is A then simulate the total profit for A and B using random
numbers 0.50, 0.75, 0.30, 0.01, 0.10, 0.20 exactly once in the given
order.

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 4
Example
Jim decides to go to the floating casino in Goa. He pays Rs 5000 and
gets an entry to the casino along with Rs 25000 worth non cashable
play coupons. First he plays game “A” in which he is supposed to bet
Rs 5000 worth non cashable play coupons and tosses an unbiased
coin 5 times and if at least 4 heads appear, he will get back his Rs
5000 worth non cashable play coupons along with same amount worth
cashable play coupons. He continues to play game “A” until all his non
cashable play coupons are exhausted. Depending upon the cashable
play coupons won in game “A” he will play game “B” for atmost three
times, in this game he has to bet a number from 1 to 4 and rotate a
wheel of fortune having total six 6’s, five 5’s, four 4’s, three 3’s, two 2’s
and one 1 on the wheel. Jim decides to bet Rs 5000 worth cashable
coupons every time on number 4 and if he wins he will get Rs 10000
worth cashable play coupons along with the betted amount. Using
random numbers 0.12, 0.86, 0.98, 0.65, 0.21, 0.91, 0.82, 0.01, 0.79,
0.31, 0.76 and 0.42 exactly once in the given order, simulate his total
profit.
Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics
Examples

Example 5

Example
Using simulation find the expected profit in the following game; you can
enter the game when you buy $1 ticket. When the first roll of the die
is a 2 or a 4, you can roll the die again. If the outcome of the second
roll is less than or equal to the first roll, you win the later amount. If the
outcome is greater than the first roll you get nothing. Random numbers
are 0.35, 0.01, 0.7, 0.6, 0.49.

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 6

Example
Use inverse transformation method to find the algorithm to generate
the observation of random variable X , whose density is given by the
following function:


 −x 3 , −1 < x < 0

 x

 , 0≤x <1
2


f (x) = 1
 , 1≤x <2



 2

0, e.w.



Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 7

Example
Use inverse transformation method to find the algorithm to generate
the observation of random variable X , whose density is given by the
following function:

1

 , 0≤x <1



 3



f (x) = 2
, 1≤x <2
3






0,
 e.w.

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

Example 8

Example
A car manufacturing firm produce 1 to 8 units daily according to a
uniform distribution. The number of vehicles available to ship the man-
ufactured cars from factory to market daily follows Poisson distribution
with mean 1. Capacity of a shipping vehicle is 2 cars. The probability
of a shipped car being sold in a day is 0.75 independent of all sales. If
each sold car gives a net profit of 2 Lakhs, whereas each unshipped
or shipped but unsold car has a storage cost of 2000 or 4000 per car
per day respectively. Using random numbers 0.80, 0.82 and 0.59 once
in the given order, simulate the net profit of the manufacturing firm in
a day.

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics

THANK YOU

Dr Mayank Goel Probability & Statistics