PHOTOVOLTAICS REPORT

Prepared by

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, ISE

with support of PSE Projects GmbH

Freiburg, 17 May 2024

www.ise.fraunhofer.de
©Fraunhofer ISE/Foto: Guido Kirsch

© Fraunhofer ISE
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CONTENT

 Quick Facts
 Topics:
 PV Market
 Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency
 Life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustainability aspects
 Price Development
 Abbreviations
 Further Studies and Analyses
 Acknowledgements

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Introduction
Preliminary Remarks

 The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information. However, facts and figures
change rapidly, and the given information may soon be outdated again.
 This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr. Simon Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and
Werner Warmuth (PSE Projects GmbH).
 Price indications are always to be understood as nominal, unless this is stated explicitly. For example,
prices in the learning curves are inflation adjusted.
 The slides have been made as accurate as possible and we would be grateful to receive any comments
or suggestions for improvement.
Please send your feedback to [email protected] and also to [email protected]
 Please quote the information presented in these slides as follows:
©Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 17 May 2024

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Quick Facts
Parameter Value Status Reference Date of data
Germ any / EU27 / Worldw ide
PV installation market [GW] 7.5 / 41.4 / 240 GW End of 2022 BNA / SPE / IEA 03/2023; 01/2023; 04/2023
02/2024; 12/2023; 04/2024
BNA / SPE / IEA
14.9 / 55.9 / 407 GW End of 2023
Cumulative installation [GW] 67.6 / 207 / 1,185 GW End of 2022 ISE / SPE / IEA 03/2023; 12/2023; 04/2023
03/2024; 12/2023; 04/2024
ISE / SPE / IEA
82.2 / 263 / 1,581 GW End of 2023
PV power generation [TWh] 49.5net / 160.4gross / 1032.5gross 2021 ISE / EI / EI 04/2024; 06/2022; 06/2022
04/2024; 07/2023; 07/2023
ISE / EI / EI
59.1net / 246.4gross / 1322.6gross 2022
PV electricity share 9.9%net / 5.5%gross / 3.6%gross 2021 ISE / BP / BP 08/2022; 06/2022; 06/2022
05/2023; 07/2023; 07/2023
ISE / BP / BP
11.7%net / 7.4%gross / 4.5%gross 2022
Worldw ide
c-Si share of production 97% 2023 ITRPV 04/2024

Record solar cell efficiency: III-V MJ 47.6 / 26.8 / 23.4 / 24.4 / 21.0% 05/2023 Green et al. 10/2023

(conc.) / mono-Si / CIGS / multi-Si / CdTe

Germ any
Price PV rooftop system 1,050 to 1,650 €/kWp 2022 BSW 05/2022

LCOE PV power plant 3.1 to 5.7 ct€ / kWh 2021 ISE

Lowest/Latest PV-Tender Price 4.33/5.17 ct€ / kWh 02/2018; BNA 12/2023

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(average, volume-weighted value)
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12/2023
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Executive Summary
PV Market: Global

 Photovoltaics is a fast-growing market: The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of cumulative
PV installations was about 26% between year 2013 to 2023.
 In 2023 producers from Asia count for 94% of total PV module production. China (mainland) holds
the lead with a share of about 86%. Europe and USA/CAN each contributed 2%.
 Wafer size increased and by keeping the number of cells larger PV module sizes are realized allowing
a power range beyond 700 W per module.
 In 2023, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations amounted to 20%. In contrast,
installations in China accounted for 43% (previous year 37%) and North America for 10%.
 Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for about 97% of the total production in 2023. Mono-
crystalline technology became the dominant technology in c-Si production while multi-crystalline
technology is phasing out.
 Market shifts from subsidy driven to competitive pricing model (Power Purchase Agreements PPA).

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Executive Summary
PV Market: Focus Germany

 In year 2022, Germany accounted for about 5.2% (82.2 GWp) of the cumulative PV capacity installed
worldwide (1581 GWp) with about 3.7 million PV systems installed in Germany. In 2023 the newly
installed capacity in Germany was 14.9 GWp according to BNA; in 2022 it was 7.5 GWp.
 In 2023, photovoltaics accounts for 12.5% of net electricity generation and all renewable energies
together for around 60%.
 In 2023 about 42 Mio. t CO2 equivalent GHG emissions have been avoided due to 61 TWh PV
electricity consumed in Germany.
 PV system performance has strongly improved. Before year 2000 the typical Performance Ratio was
about 70%, while today it is in the range of 80% to 90%.
 Often residential and small commercial PV systems are installed with a battery storage and a charging
station for electric mobility. Due to relative high electricity tariffs in Germany, self consumption is the
prevailing business model. Another trend is the increased installation of balcony solar systems.

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Executive Summary
Solar Cell / Module Efficiencies

 The record lab cell efficiency* is 26.8% for mono-crystalline and 24.4% for multi-crystalline silicon
wafer-based technology. The highest lab efficiency in thin film technology is 23.4% for CIGS and
21.0% for CdTe solar cells. Record lab cell efficiency for Perovskite is 25.2%.
 In the last 10 years, the efficiency of commercial mono-crystalline wafer-based silicon modules
increased from about 16% to 22% and more. At the same time, the efficiency of CdTe module
increased from 9% to nearly 20%.
 In the laboratory, the best performing modules are based on mono-crystalline silicon with 24.7%
efficiency. Record efficiencies demonstrate the potential for further efficiency increases at the
production level.
 In the laboratory, high concentration multi-junction solar cells achieve an efficiency of up to 47.6%
today. With concentrator technology, module efficiencies of up to 38.9% have been reached.

7 * Only official lab record efficiencies with minimum cell area of 1 cm2 are listed. Latest reference: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 63),
© Fraunhofer ISE Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 10/2023
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Executive Summary
Energy Payback Time

 Material usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the last 18 years from around
16 g/Wp (in 2004) to about 2.2 g/Wp in 2023 due to increased efficiencies, thinner wafers (150µm)
using diamond wire saws, and larger ingots.
 The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the geographical location: PV systems
manufactured in Europe and installed in Northern Europe require approximately 1.1 years to pay
back the energy input, while PV systems installed in the South require 0.9 years to pay back the
energy input, depending on the technology installed and the grid efficiency.
 A PV system located in Sicily using wafer-based Silicon modules has an Energy Payback Time of about
one year. Assuming a 20-year lifetime, this type of system can produce twenty times the energy
required to produce it.

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Executive Summary
Price Development

 Due to the coronavirus crisis and the associated disruptions to supply and trade chains, market prices
rose noticeably in 2022 and at times some products were not available in sufficient quantities. In 2023
prices fell again.
 In Germany prices for a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system were around 14,000 €/kWp in 1990.
At the end of 2023, such systems cost only 10% of the price in 1990. The compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of net prices has been -6.8% over the past 33 years.
 The Experience Curve – also called Learning Curve - shows that in the last 43 years the module price
decreased by 24.4% with each doubling of the cumulated global module production. Cost reduction
results from economies of scale and technological improvements. Global average Selling price (ASP)
was about 0.20 US$/Wp in 2023.

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1. PV Market

 By region
 By technology

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PV Module Production by Region 1990-2023
Percentage of Total MWp Produced

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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PV Module Production by Region
Global Annual Production

Annual production has

increased 13-fold over
the past decade. In 2023,
approximately 95% of
solar modules and their
© Fraunhofer ISE
components came from
Asia, primarily from
China with a module
production share of
about 80%, which also
controls more than 95%
of the market for certain
components such as
ingots and wafers.
Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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 Status Quo – PV Production in Europe
Overview of PV production along the value chain – December 2023

Nominal Production Capacity in

Europe [GWp/a]:
pcc SE
Modules 11.2 Stakksberg

Solar Cells 1.9

Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia

ELKEM
Value Chain Wacker
Nameplate Production Capacity Module – Ingot

Ingot & Wafer 1.0 mg-Si Norway

Poly-Si NorSun
Poly-Si ~25***

Nameplate Prod. Capacity mg-Si / poly-Si

Ingot / Wafer
Solarzelle
mg-Si ~43*** Module SoliTek/Valoe

Fab Size Sonnenstromfabrik

(*1000 10³ kg/a)

Aleo
(MWp/a)

ExaSun
> 1 GWp MeyerBurger MeyerBurger
SolarwattBruk-Bet
Soluxtec
> 500 MWp Solarwelt Heckert
© Fraunhofer ISE RECOM Wacker
> 100 MWp Sillia Voltec Energetica
Megasol
Kioto
Eclipse/
Ferroglobe BiSol Solvis
Reden PeimarSolarday Domi Eko
Escelco
RECOM Sunerg
PiKCell

Ferroglobe
Module Solar cell Ingot&Wafer poly-Si mg-Si ENEL © Fraunhofer ISE

Data and Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE 2023; last update: 12/2023

13 * currently 2,100 kg/MWp poly-Si necessary for Ingot production

© Fraunhofer ISE ** majority of EU produced poly-Si is sold into the semiconductor industry
FHG-SK: ISE-PUBLIC *** currently 3.150 kg/MWp mg-Si necessary for Ingot production
PV Production in Germany - Status Quo
PV module supplier – December 2023
Value-added stage
mg-Si
Poly-Si
Company Location Capacity Web site
Ingot / Wafer
[MW]
Solarzelle
MeyerBurger Freiberg 800 https://www.meyerburger.com/de Module

Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia

Sonnenstromfabrik
Factory size
Soluxtec Bitburg 550 https://www.soluxtec.de/
> 1 GWp
Sonnenstromfabrik Wismar 525 https://www.sonnenstromfabrik.com/de/
> 500 MWp
Oxford PV Aleo Solar
Solarwelt (Heckert) Langenwetzendorf 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com/standort- > 100 MWp
Silicon Products
lwd/ > 50 MWp NexWafe

Heckert Solar Chemnitz 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com MeyerBurger Wacker

Sunmaxx
Antec Solarwatt
Aleo Solar Berlin 300 https://www.aleo-solar.de/ MeyerBurger
Soluxtec Solarwelt Heckert
AxSun Laupheim 50 https://www.axsun.de/

Sunmaxx Ottendorf-Okrilla 50 https://sunmaxx-pvt.com/de

Antec Solar Arnstadt https://www.antec.solar/

AxSun Wacker

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data and Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE 2023; last update: 12/2023

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Global Cumulative PV Installation
by Region

© Fraunhofer ISE

Note: The IRENA data shown here

differs from that of the IEA PVPS:
Data: IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: April-2024
IRENA: 1,412 GWp
IEA-PVPS: 1,581 GWp

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Global Cumulative PV Installation
by on-grid & off-grid installation type

Approximately 99.6% of today’s

installed PV capacity is connected to
the grid.
The proportion of off-grid systems
compared to the total cumulative
systems has roughly halved over time
from just under 1 % in 2010 to 0.43 %
in 2023.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024

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Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region
Status 2023

The total cumulative installations

amounted to about 1,581 GWp
according to IEA-PVPS at the end of
year 2023; IRENA reports 1,412 GWp.

All percentages are related to global

installed PV capacity, including off-grid
systems.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global Market; IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024;
Date of data: 04/2024

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Annually Installed PV System Capacity in Germany
Percentage of Annual Capacity by System Size

The annual distribution

of PV System size classes
strongly depend on:
 Regulations
 Market incentives
(like EEG)
 Tender procedures
 Bankability
(trust of investors)
© Fraunhofer ISE

Source until year 2020: Fraunhofer ISE,

own calculations based on EEG-master
and -flow data (netztransparenz.de, Sept.
2021)
Source since 2021: MaStR (16.10.2023)+
Data validation algorithm

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Share of Number of PV-Systems Installed
Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2022

Total number of all Number of PV-Systems End of 2022 about

grid-connected PV-Systems larger than 500 kWp 2.66 million grid-
connected PV-Systems
were installed in
Germany.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (16.10.2023) and Data validation algorithm

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 Share of Capacity of PV-Systems Installed
Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2022

PV Capacity in kWp and percentage PV Capacity in kWp and percentage At the end of 2022 a
of all grid-connected PV-Systems of Systems larger than 500 kWp total cumulated PV
capacity of about 67.5
GW was installed in
Germany.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculation based on MaStR (16.10.2023) + Data validation algorithm

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Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources
Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE © Fraunhofer ISE

© Fraunhofer ISE

165.6 GW of total 261.6 GW net installed electricity generation capacity in Germany were from renewable energy (RE) sources in
Germany in year 2023. This results in a RE share of 63.3% of total capacity.
Data: Energy Charts by Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger. Date of data: 03/2024

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PV Energy Generated and Resulting GHG Avoided Emissions
Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE

 In 2023 Greenhouse Gas emissions of about 42 Mio. t CO₂-equivalent were avoided due to 61 TWh
PV electricity consumed in Germany.
Data: BMU, BDEW, BMWi, Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) 02/2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024

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Annual PV Production by Technology
Worldwide (in GWp)

About 500* GWp PV module production in 2023

2020

*2023 production numbers reported by 2015 Thin film

different analysts vary to some extent.
About 410 GW have been installed in
2023 globally. The TOP10 module
Mono-Si
producer together shipped about 375 GW 2010 Multi-Si
PV panels in 2023. Total PV module
shipments are estimated to be between
460 and 502 GW in 2023. © Fraunhofer ISE

2005

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates
2000
based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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PV Production by Technology
Percentage of Global Annual Production

Production 2023* (GWp)

Thin film 13
Multi-Si 4
Mono-Si 485
Total 502 (ITRPV)

*estimated numbers

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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Market Share of Thin-Film Technologies
Percentage of Total Global PV Production

© Fraunhofer ISE

Thin-Film technology
contributed in year 2023
with about 2.5% to the
total PV-market.

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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Thin-Film Technologies
Annual Global PV Module Production

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency

 Development in the Laboratories

 Development in the PV Industry
 Performance Ratio (PR)

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Development of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficiencies

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Versions 1 to 63), Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 1993-2023. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2024. Date of data: 10/2023

28 Only official lab record efficiencies published in the Solar Cell Efficiency Tables, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications are
© Fraunhofer ISE included in the graph.
FHG-SK: ISE-PUBLIC
Efficiency Comparison of Technologies:
Best Lab Cells vs. Best Lab Modules

Note: In mass production Cell-to-

Module ratio (CTM) improved in past
years by reducing losses and using
possible gains when integrating solar
cells in modules. Fraunhofer ISE
provides SmartCalc.CTM software
suite for the precise CTM power loss
© Fraunhofer ISE analysis. It considers geometrical
losses, optical losses & gains as well as
electrical losses.
www.cell-to-module.com
Data: Green et al.: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 63), Progress in PV: Research and Applications 2023. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 10/2023

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Current Efficiencies and Power of Commercial PV Modules
Sorted by technology

Total weighted average efficiency of crystalline

Silicon(c-Si) wafer-based modules is 21.6% in
Q4-2023 (was 20.9% in Q4-2022); weighting
factor is total shipments in year 2023. Lowest
module efficiency in this group is 17.4% (was
17.2% one year before) and highest value is
23.3% (was 23.2% in 2022).
Top 10 manufacturers represent about 75% of
total shipment volume and origin mainly in Asia.
© Fraunhofer ISE © Fraunhofer ISE
Predominant c-Si technology is mono-PERC with
half-cut cells and Multi-Busbar.
Note: The selection is based on modules from the top 10 manufacturers in 2023 (except
CIGS), with module data sheets available worldwide at the end of January 2024. For
CIGS technology, only a very limited amount of supplier data was available, and the
products indicated are manufactured for niche markets such as building integrated PV
(BIPV) or flexible module applications, so comparability with the other two technologies
Data Source: company product data sheets; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 02/2024 is limited.

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Performance Ratio Development for PV Systems
Germany

In the 1990’s
 Typical PR ~70 %
 Widely ranging PR values

Today
 Typical PR ~83 %
 Less variance in PR
as compared to 1990’s
© Fraunhofer ISE

Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation, CPIA 2021

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3. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustainability aspects

 Silicon usage, wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si

 EPBT: Development and comparison

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c-Si Solar Cell Development
Wafer Thickness [µm] & Silicon Usage [g/Wp]

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: until 2012: EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda, from 2012: ITRPV; from 2016 ISE without; 2017 ongoing with recycling of Si. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; date of data: 04/2024

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Historic Trend in Energy Payback Time
Harmonized Study data for mono-crystalline Silicon Rooftop PV-Systems

 Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative production
doubled, the EPBT went down by 12.8 %
for the last 24 years.

Harmonization methodology
based on Koppelaar (2016) harmonized results and harmonization parameters

1) Performance Ratio
based on average annual PV yield during lifetime
PV system lifetime 25
Degradation 0.70%
PR (initial) 80%
PR (incl. average degradation during lifetime) 73.6%
2) Grid efficiency
for converting PV yield in primary energy equivalents
grid efficiency 35%
© Fraunhofer ISE
EPBT of Leccisi (2016), Louwen (2014) and Friedrich (2020) were harmonized with
1) PR (incl. average degradation) and 2) grid efficiency to results of Koppelaar (2016)*

Data: Lorenz Friedrich, Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2021 Irradiation: 1700 kWh/m²/a at an optimized tilt angle; Years: Estimated average year of original data

* Koppelaar (2016) - Solar-PV energy payback and net energy: Meta-assessment of study quality, reproducibility, and results harmonization, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
34 Leccidi et al. (2016) - The Energy and Environmental Performance of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Systems—A Timely Update, Energies
© Fraunhofer ISE Louwen et al. (2014) - Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy payback time of current and prospective silicon heterojunction solar cell designs, Progress in Photovoltaics
FHG-SK: ISE-PUBLIC Friedrich et al. (2020) - Global Warming Potential and Energy Payback Time Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity by Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) Solar Modules, submitted JPV
Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems
Geographical Comparison
Irradiation (GTI, kWh/m²/a) EPBT
<600
 Rooftop PV-system using
mono-crystalline Silicon 800
cells* produced in China
1000
 EPBT is dependent on
irradiation, but also on 1200
1.3 years
other factors like grid
efficiency**. 1400

 Better grid efficiency in 1600

Europe may decrease the
EPBT by typically 9.5 % 1800
compared to PV modules
produced in China. 2000
1.0 year

>2200

Data: Lorenz Friedrich, Fraunhofer ISE. Image: JRC European Commission. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2020 (Modified scale with updated data from Fraunhofer ISE)

35 *Cz PERC cells module with 19.9% efficiency

© Fraunhofer ISE
FHG-SK: ISE-PUBLIC **relation between primary energy to produced electricity in the grid used for manufacturing of the PV system
World Map EPBT of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems –
Comparison of EPBT China
EPBT
Influencing factors and interpretation:
 EPBT: The lower, the better
 Irradiation: The higher, the better
 Grid efficiency: The higher, the
better in countries where
upstream production is located;
(better energy mix to generate
electrical power; less losses in the
electrical transmission network).
At downstream (where PV is
installed) a low grid efficiency
reduces the EPBT.

EPBT = Energy Pay Back Time in years: Calculated for PV-system with
Cz PERC 60 cells modules with 19.9 % efficiency produced in China
Data: Lorenz Friedrich, Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2020

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Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems –
Comparison of EPBT China / EU, local Irradiation and Grid Efficiency 2021

© Fraunhofer ISE © Fraunhofer ISE

EPBT for PV systems produced in Europe is shorter than for those produced in China because of better grid efficiency in
Europe.
Data: Lorenz Friedrich, Fraunhofer ISE. Calculations for year 2021 made at 22-July 2022

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PV-Module
Materials and Components

Glass Al Frame Interconnector

(67.5%) AlMg3 (12.7%) Cu (1.3%)
Sb Sn (0.09%) / Pb (0.09%)

Please note: Highly

transparent glass can also be
produced without the use of
Solar cells antimony (Sb); the materials
Si (2.7%) contained in PV modules can
Ethylene-vinyl acetate Ag/PbO (0.04%) be almost 100% recycled -
(6.7%) Ag/Al/PbO (0.01%)
but this is laborious and
often not economically
Al (0.07%) viable.
11.6 kg/m²
Color legend:
3.3 kWh/m2 (Module) Available/harmless materials
80.9 kWh/m2 (Solar cells) Rare/valuable materials
Hazardous substances
J-Box
Recycling is possible
GRP, Polyamide (1.6%)
Silicones (1.2%) Due to problematic
Backsheet Diodes/Cables (0.02%) substances such as
PVF/Glue/PET/Glue/PVF (3.7%) Antimony, only
F downcycling is
Source: Fraunhofer ISE © 2024
possible

38 Mass fraction of substance in relation to total module mass of 11.6 kg/m² (100%) given in brackets
© Fraunhofer ISE
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4. Price Development

 Electricity costs
 Market incentives in Germany
 Costs for PV systems
 Price Learning Curve

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Electricity Prices, PV Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) and
bidding scheme in Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: BNA; energy-charts.info; Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 04/2024

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PV Market Development and Incentive Schemes in Germany

Market Incentive Start End

1‘000 Roofs Program 1990 1995
Cost-covering 1993 1999
remuneration
100‘000 Roofs-Program 1999 2003
EEG 2000 ongoing
PV Tendering scheme 2015 ongoing
© Fraunhofer ISE
The EEG 2023 law relies on a massive expansion of
renewable energies with total installed PV capacity
targets of 215 GW in year 2030 and 400 GW in 2040.
In 2023 new PV system with a capacity of about
15 GW have been connected to the grid. Announced
for 2023 were 9 GW. From 2026, the expansion target
is 22 GW of new installations on annual basis.
Data: BNA. Graph: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts. Date of Data: 03/2024

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PV-Tender in Germany for Free-standing Systems
Average, quantity weighted Award Value

PV-Tender scheme for large

ground-mounted systems
started in April 2015 and
total capacity of this
scheme accumulates to
14.1 GW by Dec-2023 with
5.2 ct€ / kWh as latest
average quantity weighted
award price.
© Fraunhofer ISE

PV-rooftop and special

tenders are not displayed
in the graph.

Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 – Date of data: Feb-2024

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PV-Tender in Germany for large Rooftop-Systems
Average, quantity weighted Award Value

PV-Tender scheme for large

Rooftop systems (>750 kW)
started in June 2021 and
total capacity of this
scheme accumulates to 1.66
GW by Feb-2024 with
8.9 ct€ / kWh as latest
average quantity weighted
award price.
© Fraunhofer ISE

Lowest PV-Tender Round

was in Jun. 2021 with
6.88 ct€ / kWh as average
quantity weighted award
price.
Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 – Date of data: 03/2024

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Global Weighted Average Levelised Costs of Electricity for Large PV Systems
(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)

The global weighted average LCoE was in year 2022

for large PV systems 0.047 €/kWh (= 47 €/MWh).
The 5th percentile is a value associated with the
© Fraunhofer ISE
location within the data where 5% of data is below
that value. In year 2022 the 5th percentile was
0.029 €/kWh (= 29 €/MWh).
The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the
data has a larger value. In year 2022 the 95th
percentile was 0.114 €/kWh (= 114 €/MWh).
The LCoE decreased by about 15% on year-to-year
basis in the last 12 years.

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Global Weighted Average Total Installed Costs For Large PV Systems
(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)

The global weighted average total cost for

large PV systems was 833 €/kWp in year 2022.
© Fraunhofer ISE The 5th percentile is a value associated with
the location within the data where 5% of data
is below that value. In year 2022 the 5th
percentile was 541 €/kWp.
The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of
the data has a larger value. In year 2022 the
95th percentile was 1786 €/kWp.
Total installed cost for large PV systems
decreased by about 12% on year-to-year basis
in the last 12 years.

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Price Development for PV Rooftop Systems in Germany
(10kWp - 100kWp)

Balance of System (BOS)

encompasses all components of
a PV system other than the PV
modules; like inverter,
mounting system, switches,
wiring and installation work.

BOS incl. Inverter

© Fraunhofer ISE

Modules
Percentage of the
Total Cost

Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 11/2023

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Breakdown of Utility-scale PV Total Installed Costs
By Country in 2022

Breakdown of cost
components
(average of available country
data):

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Breakdown of Utility-scale PV Total Installed Costs
Germany 2019 to 2022

Supply bottlenecks due to the

coronavirus crisis led to price
turbulence in 2022.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Price Learning Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the
cumulative PV module
production doubled
the price went down
by about 24.4% for
the last 43 years.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit; from 2022: ISE; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024

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Price Learning Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the
cumulative PV module
production doubled
the price went down
by about 24.4% for
the last 43 years.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit; from 2022: ISE; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024

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Further Reading
Selected studies and analyses

 ISE Energy Charts

 Study: Levelized Cost of Electricity - Renewable Energy Technologies
 Recent facts about photovoltaics in Germany
 Power Generation from Renewable Energy in Germany
 What will the Energy Transformation Cost? Pathways for Transforming the German Energy System by
2050
 Sustainable PV Manufacturing in Europe – An Initiative for a 10 GW Green Fab
 Meta Study: Future Crosssectoral Decarbonization Target Systems in Comparison to Current Status of
Technologies
Please click on the link to find the respective information.

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Abbreviations

Abbr. Explanation Abbr. Explanation

AC Alternating Current HJT (also HIT) Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-Layer
Al-BSF Aluminum Back Surface Field IBC Interdigitated Back Contact (solar cells)
BIPV Building Integrated PV LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy
BOS Balance of System LCPV Low Concentrator Photovoltaic
CdTe Cadmium-Telluride MJ Multi Junction
CI(G)S Copper Indium (Gallium)Diselenide MPP Maximum Power Point
CPV Concentrating Photovoltaic n-type Negatively doped wafer (with phosphorous)
c-SI Crystalline Silicon PERX Passivated emitter and rear cell
Cz Czochralski Method PR Performance Ratio
DC Direct current p-type Positively doped wafer (with boron)
Renewable Energy Source Act
EEG PV Photovoltaic
(Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG)
EI The Energy Institute RE Renewable Energies
EPBT Energy PayBack Time ROI Return on Investment
EROI Energy Return of Invest SI Silicon
FZ Floating Zone SIC Silicon carbide
GaAs Gallium Arsenide TOPCon Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact
GaN Gallium nitride VAT Value Added Tax
HCPV High Concentrator Photovoltaic

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Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out with contributions from:

Name Institution The information provided in this ‚Photovoltaics Report‘ is very concise
Andreas Bett ISE
by its nature and the purpose is to provide a rough overview about the
Bruno Burger ISE
Solar PV market, the technology and environmental impact.
Lorenz Friedrich ISE
Christoph Kost ISE There are many more aspects and further details can be provided by
Sebastian Nold ISE Fraunhofer ISE. Upon request, you are welcome to receive a tailor-
Simon Philipps ISE made offer.
Ralf Preu ISE
Please contact us if you are interested in ordering this service.
Jochen Rentsch ISE
Gerhard Stryi-Hipp ISE [email protected]
Tobias Reuter ISE [email protected]
Harry Wirth ISE
Werner Warmuth PSE Projects GmbH

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