MATH

Probability

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 PROBABILITY
Definitions of Probability
A Classical definition of probability is: The probability of
an event is the number of cases favorable to that event
to the total number of cases, provided that all these are
equally likely.
There are two approaches to probability viz.
(i) Classical approach
(ii) Axiomatic approach
In both the approaches we frequently use the term
‘experiment’ which means an operation which can
produce well defined outcome(s). There are two types of
experiments:
(i) Deterministic Experiment: Those experiments which
when repeated under identical conditions produce the
same result or outcomes are known as deterministic
experiment. When experiments in science or engineering
are repeated under identical conditions, we almost get
the same result every time.
(ii) Random Experiment: If an experiment when
repeated under identical conditions, do not produce the
same outcome every time but the outcome in a trial is
one of the several possible outcomes then such an

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experiment is known as probabilistic experiment or a
random experiment. For example tossing of a coin, it is
not sure that the outcome will be head or tail.
Trial and Elementary Events: Let a random experiment be
repeated under identical conditions. Then the experiment
is called a trial and the possible outcomes of the
experiment are known as elementary events or cases.
The tossing of a coin is trial and getting head or tail is an
elementary event.
Compound Event: Events obtained by combing together
two or more elementary events are known as the
compound events.
In a throw of a dice the event: getting a multiple of 2 is
the compound event because this event occurs if any
one of the elementary event 2, 4 or 6 occurs.
Exhaustive Number of Cases; The total number of
possible outcomes of a random experiment in a trial is
known as the exhaustive number of cases. In other
words, the total number of elementary events of a
random experiment is called the exhaustive number of
cases.
In throwing of a dice the exhaustive number of cases is 6
since any one of the six marked with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 may
come uppermost.

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Mutually Exclusive Events: Events are said to be
mutually exclusive or incompatible if the occurrence of
any one of them prevents the occurrence of all the others
i.e. if no two or more of them can occur simultaneously
in the same trial.
Elementary events related to a random experiment are
always mutually exclusive, because elementary events
are outcomes of an experiment when it is performed and
at a time only one outcome is possible.
Equally Likely Cases: Events are equally likely if there is
no reason for an event to occur in preference to any
other event. If an unbiased dice is rolled, then each
outcome is equally likely to happen. i.e. all elementary
events are equally likely.
Favourable Number of Cases: The number of cases
favourable to an event in a trial is the number of
elementary events such that if any one of them occurs,
we say that the event happens.
In other words, the number of cases favourable to an
event in a trial is the total number of elementary events
such that the occurrence of any of them ensures the
happening of that event.

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Independent Events: Events are said to be independent if
the happening (or non – happening) of one event is not
effected by the happening (or non–happening) of other.
If two dice are thrown together, then getting an even
number on first is independent to getting an odd number
on the second.
Classical Definition of Probability
If there are n–elementary events associated with a
random experiment and m of them are favorable to an
event A then probability of A is denoted by P(A) and is
defined as the ratio m
. Thus P(A) = m , since 0  m  n
n n
therefore 0 m 1, therefore 0  P(A)  1
n
The number of cases in which the event A will not
happen is (n – m), therefore if A denotes not happening
of A, then the probability P( A ) of not happening of A is
given by P( A )
nm
= = 1 – m = 1 – P(A)  P(A) + P( A ) = 1. If P(A) = 1, A is
n n
called certain event and if P( A ) = 1, A is called impossible
event.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Let S be the sample space
associated with a random experiment and let A1 and A2
be two events. Then A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive if
A1  A2 = .

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Note–1: If A and B are two events associated with a
random experiment, then P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A 
B)
Note–2: If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
P(A  B) = 0, therefore P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B).
Note–3: If A, B, C are three events associated with a
random experiment, then P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) +
P(C) – P(A  B) – P(B  C) – P(A  C) + P(A  B  C).
Note–4: If A & B are two events associated with a
random experiment. Then (i) P( A  B) = P(B) – P(A  B)
(ii) P(A  B ) = P(A) – P (A  B)
Conditional Probability
Let A and B be two events associated with a random
experiment. Then the probability of occurrence of A
under the condition that B has already occurred and P(B)
 0 is called conditional probability and it is denoted by
P  A 
B

Thus P  A  = Probability of occurrence of A under the

B
condition that B has already occurred.
B
P   = Probability of occurrence of B under the
 A
condition that A has already occurred.

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Illustration of Conditional Probability: Suppose a bag
contains 5 white and 4 red balls. Two balls are drawn
from the bag one after the other without replacement.
Consider the following events:
A = Drawing a white ball in the first draw
B = Drawing a red ball in the second draw
Now P  B  = probability of drawing a red ball in the
 A
second draw given that a white ball has already been
drawn in the first draw. Since 8 balls are left after
drawing a white ball in the first draw and out of these 8
balls, 4 balls are red, therefore P  B  = 4 = 1
.Hence P  A  =
 A 8 2 B
Not meaningful in this experiment because A cannot
occur after the occurrence of B.
Note–1: If A & B are two events associated with a
random experiment, then P(A  B) = P(A) . P  B  if P(A)  0
 A

or P(A  B) = P(B) . P  A  if P(B)  0

B
Note–2: If A1, A2, A3, _ _ _ _ An are n events related to a
random experiment, then P(A1  A2  A3 _ _ _ An) = P(A1) .
 A2     
P  . P  ____P
A3 An
   
A A __A 
 A1   A1  A2   1 2 n 1 

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Illustrations:
Ex.1 A bag contains 10 white and 15 black balls. Two
balls are drawn in succession without replacement.
What is the probability that first is white and
second is black?
Sol. Consider the events
A = Getting a white ball in the first draw
B = Getting a Black Ball in the second draw.
Required Probability = Probability of getting a
white ball in the first draw and a black ball in the
B
second draw = P(A and B) = P (A  B) = P(A). P  
 A
10
P(A) = and P  B  = Probability of getting
C1 10 2
 
25
C1 25 5  A
a black ball in the second draw when a white ball
15
has already been in first draw =
C1 15 5
24
 
C1 24 8

 Required probability = P(A  B) = P(A) . P  B  =

 A
2 5 1
 
5 8 4
Independent Events: Events are said to be independent, if
the occurrence or non – occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the occurrence or non –
occurrence of the other. Suppose a bag contains 6 white

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and 3 red balls. Consider the events A = drawing a white
ball in the first draw and B = drawing a red ball in the
second draw.
If the ball drawn in the first draw is not replaced back in
the bag, then the events A and B are dependent events
because P(B) is increased or decreased according as the
first draw results as a white or a red ball. If the ball drawn
in the first drawn is replaced back in the bag, then A & B
are independent events because P(B) remains same
whether we get a white ball or a red ball in the first draw
i.e. P(B) = P  B  and P(B) = P  B  .
 A  A
From the above, it can be concluded that if A and B are
two independent events associated with a random
experiment, then P  A  = P(A) and P  B  = P(B).
B  A

Total Probability
Let S be the sample space and let E1, E2, _ _ _ _ En be n
mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated
with a random experiment. If A is any event which occurs
with E1 or E2 or _ _ _ _ _ _ _ En then P(A) = P(E1) .

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  A  A   A 
P   + P(E2) . P   + _ _ _ _ _ + P(En) . P  
 .
 E1   E2   En 
P(E1)
E1 P(A/E1)

P(E2)
E2 P(A/E2)

P(E3)
E3
P(A/E3)
P(A/En–1)
E1

P(En–1)
En–1 P(A/En)
P(En)
En

Ex.2 A bag contains 3 red and 4 black balls. A second

bag contains 2 red and 3 black balls. One bag is
selected at random and from the selected bag, one
ball is drawn. Find the probability that the ball
drawn is red.
Sol. A red ball can be drawn in two mutually exclusive
ways
(I) Selecting bag I and then drawing a red ball from
it.
(II) Selecting bag II and then drawing a red ball
from it.
Let E1, E2, and A denote the events defined as
follows

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 E1 = Selecting bag I
A = Drawing a red ball
E2 = Selecting bag II
1
P(E1) =
2 3
P(A/E1) =
Bag I (3 R, 4B) 7
1
P(E2) =
2 2
P(A/E2) =
Bag II (2R 5
3B)

Since one of the two bags is selected randomly,

therefore P(E1) = 1 and P(E2) = 1
.
2 2
 A
Now P   = Probability of drawing a red ball when
 E1 
 A 
the first bag has been chosen = 3
and P   =
7  E2 
Probability of drawing a red ball when the second
bag has been selected
= 2
[ The second bag contains 2 red and 3 black
5
balls]
Using the law of total probability P(red ball) = P(A)
 A  A  1 3 1 2 29
= P(E1) . P   + P(E2) . P   =     .
 E1   E2  2 7 2 5 70

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Baye’s Rule & Miscellaneous Solved Examples

Let S be the sample space and let E1, E2, _ _ _ _ _ En be n

mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated
with a random experiment. If A is any event which occurs
with E1 or E2, _ _ _ _ or En.
P( E1 .P( A |E1 )
Then P E 2 = n

 P ( E ) . P( A | E )
A
1 1
i n

Ex.3 Three bags contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black

and 5 red & 5 black balls respectively. One of the
bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn
from it. If the ball drawn is red, find the probability
that it is drawn from the first bag.
Sol. Let E1, E2, E3 and A be the events defined as
follows.
E1 = First bag is chosen
E2 = Second bag is chosen
E3 = Third bag is chosen
A = Ball drawn is red
Since there are three bags and one of the bags is
chosen at random, so P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = 1 .
3
If E1 has already occurred, then first bag has been
chosen which contains 6 red and 4 black balls. The

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 probability of drawing a red ball from it is 6
. So
10
 A
P   = 6
, similarly
 E1  10
 A   A  5
P   = 4
, and P  =
 10 . We are required to find
 E2  10  E3 
 E1 
P  A  i.e. given that the ball drawn is red, what is
 
the probability that it is drawn from the first bag by
Baye’s rule P E1
A
=
P( E1 ).P( A | E1 )
P( E1 ).P( A | E1 )  P( E 2 ).P( A | E 2 )  P( E 3 ).P( A | E 2 )
1 6

= 3 10 
6 2
 .
1 6 1 4 1 5 15 5
    
3 10 3 10 3 10

Ex.4 From a group of 2 boys and 3 girls, two children are

selected. Find the sample space of the experiment.
Sol. Let the two boys be taken as B1 and B2 and the
three girls be taken as G1 G2 G3 out of 5 children,
two children can be selected in 5C2= 10 ways. So
the sample space consists of 10 points and is
given by
S = {B1.B2, B1.G1, B1.G2, B1.G3, B2.G1, B2.G2, B2.G3,
G1.G2, G1.G3, G2.G3}

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Ex.5 Six dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the
probability that all of them show the same face.
Sol. The total number of elementary events associated
to the random experiment of throwing six dice is 6
× 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 = 66. All the dice show the same
face means we are getting same number on all the
six dice. The number of ways for which is 6C1.
6
Hence required probability = C1
= 1
6 6
65

Ex.6 What is the probability that four Ss come

consecutively in the word ‘MISSISSIPPI’ written in
all possible forms?
Sol. The total number of words which can be formed by
permuting the 11 letters of the word ‘MISSISSIPPI’
is 11!
. Since the sequence of 4 consecutive Ss
4!4!2!
may start either from the first place or from the
second place ………. or from 8th place. Therefore
there are 8 possible ways in which 4 Ss can come
consecutively and in each case the remaining 7
letters MIIIPPI can be arranged in 7!
ways. Thus,
4!2!
the total number of ways in which 4 Ss can come
consecutively is = 8. 7!
.
4!2!

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 Hence required probability = 8. 7!

11!
4!2! 4!4!2!

Ex.7 Two persons each make a single throw with a pair

of dice. Show that the probability that both get
equal sums is 73
.
648

Sol. The total number of outcomes when each of the

two persons throw a pair of dice is 62 × 62 = 1296.
The sum varies from 2 to 12. The number of ways
to get the sum 2, 3, 4, …………. 12 in a single throw of
a pair of dice are
1−2−3−4−5−6−5−4−3−2−1
Now, if each person can throw the sum in ai ways,
then both of them will throw the sum I in ai2 ways.
Therefore the number of ways in which the
throws of two persons are equal is 2(12 + 22 + 32
+42 +52) + 62 = 2  5  6 11 + 36 = 146.
6
Hence required probability = 146

73
.
1296 648

Ex.8 An integer is chosen at random from the numbers

ranging from 1 to 50. What is the probability that
the integer chosen is a multiple of 2 or 3 or 10?
Sol. Out of 50 integers an integer can be chosen in 50C1
ways. So exhaustive number of cases = 50C1 = 50.

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 Now let us consider the following events
A = Getting a multiple of 2
B = Getting a multiple of 3
C = Getting a multiple of 10.
A = {2, 4, ……… 50}
B = {3, 6, ……….. 48}
C = {10, 20, …….. 50}
A  B = {6, 12, …. 48}, B  C = {30}
A  C = {10, 20, …… 50} and A  B  C = {30}
P(A) = 25 , P(B) = 16 , P(C) = 5
P(A  B) = 8
,
50 50 50 50
P(B  C) =1 , P(C  A) = 5
P(A  B  C) =1 .
50 50 50
Now required probability = P(A  B  C)
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A  B) – P(B  C) – P(A 
C) + P(A  B  C) =
= 25  16  5 8 1
   
5 1
50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Ex.9 A dice is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers

appearing is observed to be 6. What is the
conditional probability that the number 4 has
appeared at least once?
Sol. Consider the events
A = number 4 appears at least once.
B = the sum of the numbers appearing is 6.

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 Thus A = {(4, 1), (4, 2) (4, 3), (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6) (6, 4),
(5, 4), (3, 4), (2, 4) (1, 4)} and B = {1, 5) (2, 4), (3, 3),
n( A  B ) 2
(4, 2) (5, 1)}. The required probability =  .
n( B ) 5
Ex.10.Two integers are selected at random from integers
1 through 11. If the sum is even, find the probability
that both the numbers are odd?
Sol. Out of integers from 1 to 11, 5 are even integers
and 6 are odd integers. Consider the following
events.
A = Both the numbers chosen are odd
B = The sum of the numbers chosen is even.
Since the sum of two integers is even if either both
the integers are even or both are odd, therefore
6
6 6
C2  5 C2 C2
P(A) = 11 , P(B) = , P(AB) = 11
C2
11
C2 C2 C2
Now required probability =P  A   P( A  B)
B P( B)
6
C 2 / 11 C 22 6
=
C2

6
C2  C2 5 6
C2  5 C2
11
C2
Ex.11 A fair coin is tossed repeatedly. If tail appears on
first four tosses, find the probability of head
appearing on fifth toss.

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Sol. Since the trials are independent, so the probability
that head appears on the fifth toss does not
depend upon previous results of the toss. Hence
required probability = 1
2

Ex.12.There are four machines and it is known that

exactly two of them are faulty. They are tested one
by one, in a random order till both the faulty
machines are identified. Find the probability that
only two tests are required?
Sol. The total number of ways in which two machines
can be chosen out of four machines is 4C2 = 6. If
only two tests are required to identify faulty
machines, then in first two tests faulty machines
are identified. This can be done in one way only.
So, the favorable number of ways = 1. Hence,
required probability = 1 .
6

Ex.13 Four numbers are multiplied together. Find the

probability that the product will be divisible by 5 or
10.
Sol. The divisibility of the product of four numbers
depend upon the value of the last digit of each
number. The last digit of a number can be any one

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 of the ten digits 0, 1, 2, ….. 9. So the total number of
ways of selecting last digits of four numbers is 10
× 10 × 10 × 10 = 104. If the product of the 4
numbers is not divisible by 5 or 10, then the
number of choices for the last digits of each
number is 8 (excluding 0 or 5). So favorable
number of ways = 84.
The probability that the product is not divisible by 5
84
or 10 = .
10 4
84
Hence required probability = 1 –
10 4
Ex.14 Find the probability of the first box to contain three
balls when 12 balls are distributed among three
boxes.
Sol. Since each ball can be put into any one of the three
boxes. So the total number of ways in which 12
balls can be put into three boxes is 312.
Out of 12 boxes, 3 balls can be chosen in 12C3
ways. Now remaining 9 balls can be put the
remaining 2 boxes in 29 ways. So the total number
of ways in which 3 balls are put in the first box and
the remaining in other two boxes is 12C3 × 29. Hence
12
C3  2 9
required probability =
312

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Ex.15 There is a five volume dictionary among 50 books
arranged on a shelf in a random order. If the
volumes are not necessarily kept side by side, find
the probability that the volumes will occur in the
increasing order from left to right.
Sol. The total numbers of ways of arranging 50 books
in shelf is 50P50 = 50!. Out of 50 places, 5 places for
the five–volume dictionary can be chosen in 50C5
ways. In the remaining 45 places the remaining 45
books can be arranged in 45P45 = 45! ways. In the
five places five volumes of dictionary can be
arranged in increasing order in one way only. So
favorable number of ways = 50C5 × 45!.
50
C 5  45!
Hence required probability = = 1 .
50! 120

Ex.16 If ten objects are distributed at random among ten

persons. Find the probability that at least one of
them will not get anything?
Sol. Since each object can be given to any one of ten
persons. So, ten objects can be distributed among
10 persons in 1010 ways. Thus the total number of
ways = 1010 ways.
The number of ways of distribution in which one
gets only one thing is 10! So the number of ways of

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distribution in which at least one of the does not
get anything is 1010 – 10! Hence required
10 10  10!
probability =
10 10

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