Block 1
Block 1
INTRODUCTORY
MACROECONOMICS
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CONTENTS
Page
Block 1 Issues in Macroeconomics and National
Income Accounting
Block 3 Inflation
Unit 7 Inflation: Concept, Types and Measurement 90
As the title of the course suggests, the course is introductory in nature. In-depth analysis of
certain complex issues will be carried out in two subsequent courses, viz., BECC 106 -
intermediate macroeconomics – I and BECC 109 - intermediate macroeconomics – II. The
course is divided into five blocks.
Block 1 titled, Issues in Macroeconomics and National Income Accounting, begins with
basic issues of macroeconomics and explains certain concepts frequently used in
macroeconomics. The objective of the Unit is to provide an overview and generate some
curiosity among learners. In subsequent two Units, it deals with the concept of circular flow
of income and measurement of national income.
Block 2 titled, Money in a Modern Economy, deals with the definition and functions of
money, and measures of money supply. Subsequently, it discusses the relationship between
money supply and price level, in the framework of quantity theory of money.
Block 3 deals with an important issue in macroeconomics, that is, inflation. It begins with
the types and measurement of inflation. In the next Unit it discusses the causes and effects of
inflation.
Block 4 titled, The Closed Economy in the Short-Run, begins with a brief idea on the
Classical and Keynesian systems. It highlights the contrast between both the schools of
thought. Subsequently it deals with the Keynesian model of income determination and its
implications for fiscal policy.
Block 5 titled, IS-LM Analysis, deals with the equilibrium in the real sector and the
monetary sector of the economy. The IS curve based on the equilibrium in the real sector, the
LM curve based on the monetary sector, and the interaction of both the curves are discussed
in the block.
UNIT 1 ISSUES AND CONCEPTS*
Structure
1.0 Objectives
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Why Study Macroeconomics?
1.3 Certain Concepts
1.3.1 Stocks and Flows
1.3.2 Short-run and Long-Run
1.3.3 Economic Models
1.3.4 Growth Rate
1.4 Production Possibility Curve
1.5 Importance of Economic Growth
1.6 Inflation and Unemployment
1.7 Business Cycle
1.8 Let Us Sum Up
1.9 Answers/Hints to Check Your Progress Exercises
1.0 OBJECTIVES
After going through this unit you should be in a position to
*
Dr. Kaustuva Barik, School of Social Sciences, Indira Gandhi National Open University
5
Issues in Macroeconomics and through diagrams and can be solved by mathematical methods, particularly linear
National Income Accounting algebra. A similar treatment is made for analysis of the behavior of firms, where
firms optimize their production level given the prices of inputs and resources
available to them. Naturally a question comes to mind, “Does the same
optimization problem applies to countries also?” The answer is yes; countries
have certain objective functions, and they also face constraints. The objective
function for a country could be maximization of growth in gross domestic
product (GDP), minimization of poverty among households, maintaining a stable
price level, reduction of inequality in distribution of income among individuals,
and so on. In order to analyse these issues we need a different framework that is
macroeconomics.
Let us consider another example – saving by a household and total saving of the
country. As you all will agree with me, saving by an individual is a virtue – we
should not consume all our income and save certain part of it for the future.
In fact, if a person saves more, (s) he will receive interest on her savings, and her
future income level will increase. There is a flip side to this issue however.
Whenever a person saves certain part of income, her/his consumption
expenditure decreases by a similar amount. Consequently, her/his demand for
goods and services on which the amount could have been spent (say, clothing) is
decreased. Thus the sales of the trader from whom (s)he would have bought the
clothing get reduced. As a result, the income (profits) of the trader gets reduced.
6
If the income of the trader is reduced, the amount of money the trader would Issues and Concepts
have spent on purchase of goods and services gets reduced. The ripple effect
continues.
We should not forget however that when we consume, we generate demand for
goods and services. Such demand for goods and services leads to production
activities and creation of employment in the country. If there is no demand for
goods and services, there will be no production, no employment and no income
generation in the country. Thus it is in the interest of the country that there is a
steady growth in household consumption. In view of the above, it is often said
that saving is a private virtue but a social vice! This problem is termed as the
paradox of thrift.
7
Issues in Macroeconomics and
National Income Accounting
1.3 CERTAIN CONCEPTS
You should be familiar with the concepts of short run and long run in
microeconomics – in the short run certain factors of production are fixed. For a
firm capital and technology are assumed to be fixed in the short run; they can be
varied in the long run only. Thus in the long run, there are no constraints for a
firm and the firm can maximize its output when all factors of production are
variable.
In macroeconomics the usage of the terms short run and long are somewhat
different from that in microeconomics. In macroeconomics, we assume certain
variables to be sticky in the short run, particularly price level and wage rate.
As we will see in later Units, the classical economists assumed prices and wages
to be fully flexible in the sense that they instantaneously adjust to changes in
aggregate demand and aggregate supply and a new equilibrium is reached.
According to Keynes these variables are sticky and they need time to adjust to
their desired level. Thus prices and wages reach their equilibrium levels in the
long run, not in the short run. Since policy makers are concerned with the short
run also, they need to take into account rigidities in prices and wages in policy
formulation.
8
Issues and Concepts
The flow of capital input across various sectors of the economy takes time;
it takes place in the long run, not in the short run. The movement of capital across
countries is another variable which adjusts to its equilibrium level in the long run.
The impact of such flows is spread over a period of time.
9
Issues in Macroeconomics and 1.3.4 Growth Rate
National Income Accounting
We use growth rate frequently in our day to day dealings. I am concerned with
the rate at which my salary increased over the year, the rate of interest I get on
my savings, and the rate of inflation which affect my purchasing power. At a
broader level I may be interested in the rate at which India’s population is
growing or GDP is growing. The calculation of growth rate is the same in all the
above cases. Annual growth rate of a variable is calculated as
–
Growth rate = × 100
–
Growth rate of GDP = × 100
We find that the GDP of India in financial year 2018-19 was Rs.190.10 lakh
crore at current prices while it was Rs. 170. 95 lakh crore at current prices in
2017-18. If we put these values in the above equation we obtain
. – .
× 100 = 11.20 per cent. Thus the growth rate of GDP we calculate
.
above is 11.20 per cent for the year 2018-19! As we see from official data and
newspaper reports, the growth rate of GDP of India during 2018-19 is not this
high; it is much lower. The error we commit is that we consider GDP at current
prices which include increase in output and increase in prices. Our objective,
however, is to obtain an estimate of the increase in output during the financial
year 2018-19. We need to neutralise the effect of price rise – for this we consider
the GDP at constant prices. In India, GDP at constant prices, as of 2019, is given
at the base year 2011-12. The GDP of India in constant prices for the year
2018-19 is Rs. 140.78 lakh crore compared to Rs. 131.80 crore in 2017-18 (the
base year considered is 2011-12; thus these values are in 2011-12 prices). If we
put these values in the above equation we find real GDP growth rate in
. – .
2018-19 = × 100 = 6.81 per cent.
.
F
Y2 G
Capital Good
Y1 E
x
x2 x1
Consumer Good
1. Distinguish between the following concepts: (i) stock and flows; (ii) short
run and long run.
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As mentioned above, growth rate of an economy is given by the growth rate of its
real GDP. Maximisation of growth rate is one of the objectives of most countries.
You might have noticed that growth rate differs across countries – while
countries like China have witnessed more than 10 per cent per annum growth rate
for decades, there are many African countries where growth has been is
negligible. Very high economic growth of Japan is said to be a miracle during the
post World War period. In the past 20 years, however, there has been severe
economic crisis in Japan – highly fluctuating economic growth, declining
population size, and very high public debt. Argentina, a Latin American country,
was richer than many countries such as Australia, Canada and France during the
early twentieth century. Argentina is endowed with vast natural resources,
particularly in the areas of agriculture and energy. In 1913 Argentina’s per capita
income was $3797 compared to $3452 of France and $3134 of Germany.
12
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2019, the per capita income Issues and Concepts
of Argentina is $9887 while that of France and Germany are $41760 and $46563
respectively. It indicates that per capita incomes of France and Germany have
increased much faster over the past century than that of Argentina. Economists
ascribe this relative stagnation in growth rate of Argentina to several factors
including political instability, lack of technological progress, adherence to the
development strategy of import-substitution (instead of export promotion), and
high inflation. In another example, we compare the per capita incomes of China
and India; two major emerging economies of the world. Per capita GDP of India
and China was almost at the same level till 1990 (in US Dollar terms, GDP per
capita of India was $367 in 1990 compared to $318 of China). In the subsequent
period, however, growth rate of China was much higher than that of India. In
2018, per capita GDP of India was about 20 per cent that of China (India’s per
capita GDP, in US Dollar terms in 2018, was $2010 compared to China’s $9770).
If we compare the per capita income of India and China in purchasing power
parity (PPP) terms for the year 2018, however, India’s per capita GDP was $7762
compared to $18236 of China (about 43 per cent). We can make such
comparisons across countries and analyse the reasons for such differences in
growth by undertaking macroeconomic analysis.
You should be aware of the ‘rule of 70’. It indicates the number of years it takes
to double your money. If you save Rs. 1000 in a bank and the rate of interest is
1 per cent per annum, your saving will take 70 years to double, i.e., to be
Rs. 2000. If the rate of interest is 7 per cent, it takes only 10 years to double. The
formula is
70
Number of years to double the amount = .
rate of inerest
The same rule can be applied to GDP and per capita GDP of a country. If per
capita GDP of a country is growing at the rate of 5 per cent, it takes 14 years (that
is, =14) for the country to double its per capita GDP. If growth rate in per
capita GDP is 10 per cent per annum, it will double in 7 years. Let us compare
between two countries, A and B, which have the same per capita GDP, say
Rs. 1000. Let us assume that per capita GDP of country A is growing at 5 per
cent per annum while that of country B is growing at 10 per cent per annum. If
we consider a time span of 28 years, per capita GDP of country A will be
Rs. 4000 after 28 years that of country B will be Rs. 8000! You can imagine how
much difference a higher growth rate can bring to per capita GDP in the long run.
13
Issues in Macroeconomics and You should note that economic development is different from economic growth.
National Income Accounting While economic growth indicates increase in GDP, economic development is a
much broader concept. Economic development includes improvement in basic
facilities such as health, education, electricity, drinking water, absence of
poverty, etc. Such improvement is possible if there is economic growth.
14
Issues and Concepts
There are ups and downs in economic activities for any country – while growth
rate is high in certain periods, it is low in other periods. It is generally observed
that there are alternating phases of high and low growth rates. Such phases of
growth are called business cycles.
There are four phases of a business cycle: expansion, recession, depression, and
recovery. The duration of a business cycle can vary from two years to twelve
years. Business cycles are synchronic. Depression or contraction occurs
simultaneously in most industries or sectors of the economy. Recession passes
from one industry to another and chain reaction continues till the whole economy
is in the grip of recession. Similarly, prosperity spreads through various linkages
of input-output relations or demand relations between industries or sectors.
Business cycles can be distinguished from other fluctuations as they are usually
larger, longer, and widely diffused.
15
Issues in Macroeconomics and Check Your Progress 3
National Income Accounting
1. Explain why economic growth is important for a country.
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16
Issues and Concepts
Check Your Progress 2
1. (i) Stocks are measured at a point of time while flows are measured per
unit of time. Go through Section 1.2 for further details.
(ii) In the short run certain factors are fixed while in the long run all
factors are variable. Go through Section 1.2 for further details.
2. Production possibility curve depicts the potential output of an economy.
Explain Fig. 1.1 for your answer.
17
UNIT 2 CIRCULAR FLOW AND NATIONAL
INCOME ACCOUNTING*
Structure
2.0 Objectives
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Concept of Circular Flow
2.2.1 Difference between Money Flows and Real Flows
2.2.2 Flows between Enterprises and Households
2.2.3 Flows between Enterprises, Households, Financial sector
2.2.4 Flows between Enterprises, Households, Financial and Government Sectors
2.2.5 Flows in an Open Economy
2.3 Circular Flows and National Income
2.3.1 National Income as Flow of Goods and Services
2.3.2 National Income as Flow of Factor Incomes
2.3.3 National Income as Flow of Final Expenditures
2.3.4 National Income viewed as Production, Income and Expenditure Flows
2.4 National Income Aggregates
2.4.1 National Income and Various Related Concepts
2.4.2 Interrelationships among Various Macro-economic Aggregates
2.5 Let Us Sum Up
2.6 Hints/Answers to Check Your Progress Exercises
2.0 OBJECTIVES
After going through the unit you would be able to
explain the term ‘circular flows’;
distinguish between money flows and real flows; and
establish the relationship among various macro-economic aggregates.
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The knowledge of these circular flows along with national income and various
other related macroeconomic aggregates is essential for understanding
macroeconomic theory which deals with the determination of levels of national
income, employment and prices.
The concept of circular flow pertains to the flow of real transaction or money
transaction from one economic agent to another. The flow is not one-sided; it is
two-sided. Because of this feature it can be termed as circular flow. Suppose
person A gives wheat to person B and person B in turn gives rice to person A,
then this can be termed as circular flow which is shown below.
Fig. 2.1
In Fig. 2.1 the direction of the arrows shows the receiving agent. For example,
B is receiving wheat from A and therefore, the arrow is pointing towards B.
Similarly, A is receiving rice from B. Thus, the arrow is pointing towards A.
In the above example, goods have been exchanged so the flows can be referred
to as real flows. Instead of goods, if money was exchanged, the flows could
have been money flows. Note from the example that when B received wheat
from A, money would be given by B to A. Similarly, A would have given
money to B for the purchase of rice. These money flows can be shown as
below.
Payment for purchase Wheat
20
Comparing Fig. 2.1 and Fig. 2.2, we would notice that real flows take National Income Accounting
clockwise movement, i.e., from left to right. On the other hand, money flows
take anti-clock- wise movement, i.e., from right to left.
The distinction between money flows and real flows should be clearly
understood. Real flows are the flows of goods from one economic agent to
another and vice-versa. Similarly, real flows can be flows of services from one
economic agent to another and vice-versa. Real flows are difficult to measure as
they comprise bundles of goods or services, expressed in different units and it is
impossible to aggregate these economic agent or flows. It is precisely because
of this reason that we measure money flows.
Money flows, as the name suggests, show the flow of money from one
economic agent to another. Suppose economic agent A supplies goods to
transactor B. That is a real flow. The transactor B, in turn must have paid for
these goods to transactor A, which is a money flow. Similarly, transactor B may
have supplied labour services or services of land to transactor A which is a
real flow. Transactor A, in turn, must have paid for these factor services in the
form of wages to transactor B that would be money flow.
The distinction between money and real flows and their interaction can be very
well shown with the help of a diagram such as Fig. 2.3, where transactor A is
represented as a producer and transactor B as a household.
Fig. 2.3
In Fig. 2.3, a producer supplies wheat to a household. The direction of the arrow
indicates who receives the goods. Similarly, the household supplies factor
services to a producer as shown by the arrow. Note that clock-wise direction of
the arrow indicates real flows.
21
Issues in Macroeconomics and Corresponding to real flows we can also see money flows taking place in the
National Income Accounting opposite direction or in an anti-clock-wise direction. For instance, for the goods
supplied by the producer to a consumer, the consumer has paid for these goods in
money terms, which can be called consumption expenditure.
Similarly, the producer has paid for these factor services. We can call these factor
payments. Remember that anti-clock-wise arrows indicate money flows.
The flows between enterprises and households can be shown with the help of
Fig. 2.4.
22
National Income Accounting
Fig. 2.4
In Fig. 2.4 both real and money flows are shown. The flow of consumer goods
and services from enterprises to households and of factor services from
households to enterprises constitute real flows. Similarly, flows taking place
from consumers to producers in the form of consumption expenditure and from
enterprises to households in the form of factor incomes relate to money flows.
It would not be out of place to state that m oney flows a r e the counterparts
of real flows. Note that Fig. 2.4 is not much different from Fig. 2.3. In Fig. 2.3
we had shown transaction between one firm and one household only, now all the
producers and consumers have been added together to make two groups.
Financial sector collects savings of various sectors and lends these to enterprises
for investment. The introduction of financial sector along with enterprises and
households is illustrated in Fig. 2.5.
Fig. 2.5
23
Issues in Macroeconomics and In Fig. 2.5, t h e flows between enterprises and households are shown as in Fig.
National Income Accounting 2.4. The additional flows shown here are between (i) households and financial
sector, and (ii) enterprises and financial sector. The factor income received by
households need not be fully used for final consumption expenditure; a part of
the incomes may be saved in banks or funds used f o r buying shares, or
buying, say, an i n s u ra n c e p o l i c y , which are all considered as part of t h e
financial sector. Thus, the arrow from households towards financial sector is
indicative of the savings flowing from household sector to financial sector.
These savings are collected by financial sector from households along with
savings of the enterprises in the form of undistributed profits, accumulated for
expansion purposes, and depreciation fund used for replacement investment
purposes. The savings of the financial sector are used to finance gross investment
of the economy, which is shown, with the help of an arrow from the financial
sector towards the enterprises.
Flows between enterprises, households and financial sector were shown in Fig.
2.5 above. Let us now introduce the government sector.
The government sector can be viewed in two ways: First, the government can
act as a producer or enterprise meaning thereby that it can contribute to total
production activity along with the private sector. Second, the government can act
as a redistributors of incomes, i.e., tax a particular sector of the economy and
subsidies another either by giving cash help to the enterprises or offering transfer
incomes in the form of old-age pensions or unemployment benefits to households.
The government production activity can be categorized as, 'General Government'
where the government produces primarily services which are collectively
consumed. These can take the form of police, or defense services, which are
ordinarily not available for sale; instead they are consumed collectively and are
financed from the tax revenue raised by the government.
Fig. 2.6
In Fig. 2.6, the flows between enterprises, households and financial sector are the
same as shown in Fig. 2.5. However, Fig. 2.6 has an additional flow; namely,
a part of the saving may come from government sector to the financial
sector. These savings may be positive or negative. If the government
expenditure on transfer incomes, subsidies or maintenance of collective services
is more than the tax revenue raised in the form of direct personal tax, indirect taxes
and corporation tax, savings is negative. On the other hand, if government
expenditure were less than tax revenue, government saving contributed by the
government sector would be positive.
The income received by households for the supply of factor services to the
government sector need not be spent only on the purchase of consumer goods
produced by enterprises. A part of the factor income may be passed on to the
government in the form of direct personal taxes as indicated by the arrow towards
government from households. On the other hand, the government can give
transfer incomes to households as shown by arrow facing households from
government. Similarly, the incomes received by enterprises from the sale of
consumer goods to households or for meeting collective consumption of
government, may get leaked to government in the form of indirect taxes and
corporation taxes as shown by the arrow facing government originating from
enterprises. The government may also use tax revenue to subsidise production of
goods and services by enterprises. This is shown by the arrow facing
enterprises starting from government.
So far we have shown the flows in a closed economy, i.e., an economy that
does not have any transactions in the form of exports and imports.
25
Issues in Macroeconomics and
National Income Accounting Now, we introduce transactions of an economy with the other countries of the
world (referred to as rest of the world). When an economy is opened up, the
following variables have to be incorporated in the flows of an economy:
5) Another factor is that savings generated within the economy and from the
rest of the world may be used not only for generating gross domestic capital
formation (replacement investment plus net domestic capital formation) but
also for the purposes of net investment aboard, which can be positive or
negative. It is positive when investment made by the economy in the rest of
the world is more than investment made by the rest of the world in the
economy in question and negative in case of a reverse situation.
6) Lastly, just like there can be unilateral transfers (which do not have quid-pro-
quo) within the economy there can be unilateral transfers from the rest of
the world to the economy and vice-versa. The variable is termed as
'net current transfers from the rest of the world', which can be positive or
negative. It is positive when current transfers from the rest of the world to
the economy in question are more than current transfers by the
economy to the rest of the world are and negative when the reverse is
true.
26
In Fig. 2.6, the flows in a closed economy were shown. The corresponding flows National Income Accounting
in an open economy are shown in Fig. 2.7. The incorporation of variables arising
because of opening up of the economy would bring in quite a difference to the
flows of a closed economy shown in Fig. 2.6.
Similarly, ‘Net Factor Income from Aboard’ (NFIA) is shown with the help of
an arrow pointing towards households from the rest of the world. The same is
true of 'net current transfers from aboard' where arrow is pointing t o w a r d s
households from ‘Rest of the World’.
Fig. 2.7
Net borrowings from the rest of the world are indicated by an arrow
pointing towards financial sector starting from the rest of the world. Finally,
net foreign investment is shown with the help of an arrow pointing towards the
rest of the world from financial sector.
Thus, Fig. 2.7 presents a full picture of the flows taking place in an economy,
which has enterprises, households, government, financial sector and the rest of
the world sector as the main players.
The situation gets more complicated if each of the sectors is sub-divided into
smaller units. For instance, enterprises sector is to be divided into a number of
enterprises; household sector into individual households; the financial sector into
banks, insurance, share market, etc.; government into Central Government, State
27
Issues in Macroeconomics and Governments, Local Governments; and the Rest of the World into a number of
National Income Accounting countries. The situation will get complicated because inter-unit transactions of a
sector are also to be accounted for.
1) Distinguish between money flows and real flows with the help of suitable
illustrations.
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5) State various economic transactions, which are used to study circular flow
of an economy.
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3) How does circular flow get complicated when financial sector is introduced
along with enterprises and household sectors?
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The circular flows presented in Section 2.2 are essential for the purposes of
visualizing the working of an economy. By studying these flows it is possible to
derive various macro-economic aggregates. Some of these aggregates are gross
domestic product (GDP), net domestic product (NDP), gross national product
(GNP), net national product (NNP) and national income (NY). In the following
sub- sections we try to derive these aggregates from circular flows.
28
National Income Accounting
We would employ Fig. 2.7 to arrive at national income ( NY) in three phases,
viz., (i) as flow of goods and services, ( i i ) as flow of factor incomes, and
( i i i ) as flow of final expenditures.
Taking a fresh look at Fig. 2.7, we can try to view NY aggregate at the
enterprises end. If we add up the money value of the flow of goods and
services produced over a year without duplication, after deducting the production
of capital goods meant for replacing worn out capital stock and adding with this
the net factor income from abroad, it would be possible to get a figure of NY of
an economy. To spell out further, enterprises produce consumer goods (C) and
take up net domestic capital formation (I). Add with this t h e net factor income
from abroad to get NY of an economy. Thus we can say Y = C + I + NFIA
where Y is NY. In this definition i t may be kept in mind that the value of
goods and services have to be computed at factor cost (FC) and not at market
price (MP), where v a l u e a t MP = Value at F C + N I T . NIT i s net indirect
t a x e s i.e., indirect taxes minus subsidies. Moreover, it is also to be seen that
those goods and services which are produced by enterprises meant for the
purposes of intermediate consumption (raw materials bought by one enterprises
from another are not to be added along with goods and services meant either
for final consumption on the part of households or for adding to the total capital
stock of the economy. This needs to be done to avoid double counting. To give
an example, if we take the total production of wheat along with total production
of bread we would indulge in duplication since bread also includes wheat in
the form of flour.
Again, going back to Fig. 2.7, let us view NY aggregate, at the households' end.
Households supply factor services to enterprises to produce goods and services.
These factor services can be supplied by four factors of production, viz.,
labour, land; capital and enterprise are to be remunerated in the form of
wages, rent, interest and profits, respectively.
Thus, by adding up wages, rent, interest and profits along with net factor
income from abroad we get NY of an economy. Or, Y = W + R + In + P
+ NFIA, where Y is national income which is equal to the sum of wages (W),
rent (R), interest (In), profits (P) and net factor income from abroad (NFIA).
What we have done is to add up all the factor incomes received by households
for supplying factor services to enterprises. By definition, national income
viewed, as flow of final goods and services is identical to the one viewed as flow
of factor income generated in the process of production.
29
Issues in Macroeconomics and
National Income Accounting Sometimes factor incomes instead of being categorized into W, R, In, and P are
put differently. In this new way of categorization of factor incomes we have
the groups, viz., compensation of employees (CE), operating surplus (OS)
and mixed income of self-employed ( MY) so that Y = CE + OS + MY
+ NFIA, where CE is compensation given to labour for rendering labour
services, OS is factor income generated by the ownership and to distinguish
between CE a n d OS and NFIA is net factor income from aboard (already
defined). While CE and OS are easy to understand, MY requires a little
explanation. The MY arises in the case of self- employed. For example, if we
ask a shopkeeper, running a shop at her own place of residence using her own
capital,
Making use of Fig. 2.7 national income can also be viewed as sum of final
expenditures of various transactors of an economy. In other words, this time we
look at not the production of final goods and services but how they are
disposed of. The various heads of final expenditures can originate from either
households in the form of private final consumption expenditure (Ch) or from
government in the form of public final consumption expenditure (Cg) or from
firms i n the form o f purchase of net domestic capital goods (NDKF) a n d
change in inventories (K) or from the rest of the world in the form of
payments towards net exports (NE).
Y = Ch + Cg + NDKF + NE.
We are in a position to state now that in Sub-Sections 2.3.1, 2.3.2 and 2.3.3 the
national income aggregate is arrived at considering circular flows from
production, income and expenditure respectively. Since production of goods and
services requires factor services.
And factor incomes are generated and such incomes are disposed of for financing
final consumption expenditure or saved. Savings, in turn, are used to finance
capital formation activity within the economy or for financing net foreign
investment
These three ways of measurement will give us the same magnitude of national
income, provided full statistical data required are available. In reality, the requisite
information may not be available because of which we a r e forced to employ a
combination of these three methods to measure national income of an
economy.
The first step to measure national income of an economy is to divide the economy
into a number of industrial sectors like agriculture, mining, logging,
manufacturing, construction, real estate, government services, transport services,
commercial services etc. Then depending on the availability of data we decide
which method to employ. For example, in agriculture and manufacturing sectors
production figures may be more readily available and thus we find out the
contribution o f these sectors by employing production or value added method;
for construction sector expenditure figures may be more easily available and its
contribution to national income can be estimated by using expenditure method.
Finally, for services sector, figures of incomes generated during a year are more
easily available which necessitates the employment of income method.
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31
Issues in Macroeconomics and 2) State the main components of National Income as flow of:
National Income Accounting
(i) Currently produced goods and services.
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32
year, by the normal residents of an economy, gross of depreciation, where National Income Accounting
goods and services are valued at the market prices.
11) Income from Domestic Product Accruing to Private Sector (Z): It is the
factor income enjoyed by households and private corporate sector in an
economy, over a year.
33
Issues in Macroeconomics and
National Income Accounting 12) Private Income (PY): It is the factor income and current transfers
within the economy along with net current transfers from the rest of the
world enjoyed by the normal residents of an economy, over a year.
13) Personal Income (Personal Y): It is factor income and current transfers
within the economy along with net current transfers from the rest of the
world enjoyed by households of normal residents of an economy, over a
year.
NDPFC + NIT + NFIA + net current transfers from Rest of the World
(NCT from RoW) = NNDY
GDPMP
× 100 = Rate of GDCF
NDPMP
× 100 = Rate of Net Domestic Capital Formation
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35
Issues in Macroeconomics and ....................................................................................................................
National Income Accounting
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In this unit, we have given you an idea of the concept of circular flows and how
national income of an economy can be derived by studying the working of circular
flows. The concept of circular flow relates to the flow of real transactions
or money transactions from one group of e c on om i c agents to another. Flow of
real transactions gives us real flows and the flow of money from one group of
economic agents to another gives us money flows.
National income can be studied in its three ways, viz., as flow of goods and
services or as flow of factor incomes or as flow of final expenditures: National
income looked at in either of the three ways gives us the same total. Finally, in the
last section of this unit we have gone into the discussion of national income and
various related concepts and also introduced the inter-relationships among the
related concepts.
36
National Income Accounting
The main concepts introduced are GNPMP, NNPMP, NNPFC, NNDY, income from
domestic product accruing to private sector, private income, personal income,
personal disposable income, personal savings, and rate of gross and net domestic
capital formation, rate of gross and net domestic savings and rate of net foreign
capital inflow. An attempt is also made to discuss the relationship among these
concepts.
1) Money flows take place between one transactor and another or between one
group of transactors to another. For example, producers produce goods and
services and pass these on to households for which payments are made by
them to producers. In return households supply factor services to
producers and producers make factor payment to households. Real flows,
on the other hand, are the flows of goods and services from producers to
households. Supply of factor services by households to producers, also
constitute real flows.
Similarly, the enterprises may save a part of their revenue (which they get by
selling consumer goods and services) in the form of depreciation fund and
undistributed profits.
ii) Factor incomes generated over a year can be classified into compensation
of employees, operating surplus and mixed income of self-employed.
Operating surplus is constituted of rent, interest and profits. Mixed
income of self- employed (MY) is that category of factor incomes where it is
not possible to distinguish between compensation of employees and
operating surplus. Net Factor Income from Abroad has also to be added to
domestically generated factor incomes to arrive at national income of an
economy.
iii) Expenditures currently generated can be divided into (a) Private Final
Consumption Expenditure; (b) Government Final Consumption
Expenditure; (c) Gross D omestic C apital F ormation; a n d (d) Net
E xports to Rest of the World.
From the sum of (a), (b), (c) and (d) we have to deduct net indirect taxes,
depreciation and add with this net factor income from abroad to arrive at
national income of an economy.
38
Check Your Progress 3 National Income Accounting
Private income - net factor income from abroad - net current transfers from
abroad - national debt interest - transfers from government = Income from
domestic production accruing to private sector.
3) (i) Depreciation
(ii) Net F actor I ncome from A broad
(iii) Net indirect taxes + net current transfers from abroad
(iv) Net indirect taxes
(v) Net current transfers from abroad
(vi) Direct or Personal Taxes + Miscellaneous receipts of government
administrative departments
39
UNIT 3 MEASURING ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE*
Structure
3.0 Objectives
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Methods of Measuring National Income
3.2.1 Expenditure Method
3.2.2 Income Method
3.2.3 Value Added Method
3.3 Measures of Aggregates: Saving and Wealth
3.4 Real and Nominal GDP
3.5 Limitations of GDP
3.6 Balance of Payments
3.6.1 Current Account
3.6.2 Capital Account
3.7 Let Us Sum Up
3.8 Answers/ Hints to Check Your Progress Exercises
3.0 OBJECTIVES
After going through this unit you will be able to
3.1 INTRODUCTION
In the previous Unit we discussed various concepts of national income
accounting. In this Unit we discuss the methods of measuring national income.
Measurement of national income is carried out in an accounting framework, in
the sense that there is an economic activity attached to each and every item
included in the national income. Thus national income is a flow and it is
measured for a particular period of time, usually a year. In recent times, some of
the aggregates, such as gross domestic product (GDP) are measured on a
quarterly basis. National income is measured in terms of:
*
Dr. Sarabjit Kaur, Zakir Hussain College (Evening), University of Delhi
40
1. the amount of spending by purchasing final output by the economic Measuring Economic
agents (the expenditure approach) Performance
As pointed out above, there are three methods of measuring national income.
We describe each method in detail below.
The amount of economic activity occurring during a given period of time can be
measured in terms of the amount of spending on final goods and services.
You should note that expenditure on goods purchased for re-selling (i.e.,
intermediate goods) is not included in this method. According to this method,
final expenditure on GDP at market prices is considered to represent the
economic activity. Under this method, the components of GDP are the private
consumption expenditure (C), private investment expenditure (I), government
expenditure (G), and net foreign expenditure or net export (NX). Hence, in this
method, expenditure incurred by various sectors, viz., household, business,
government, and rest of the world are added together to get final expenditure of
the economy.
According to this method, GDP at market prices (Y) is the aggregate of all the
final expenditure in an economy during a financial year which is presented by the
following Income- Expenditure Identity:
Y= C + I + G + NX
1. Consumption
Consumption expenditure is incurred by the household sector. It includes
expenditure incurred on goods and services sold to the final users during the
financial year. It captures both durable goods like car, furniture etc., non-durable
goods like food, fuel, etc. and services like banking, healthcare, etc.
2. Investment
Investment expenditure is incurred by business firms in inputs for production of
goods and services. It includes business fixed investment, residential investment,
and inventory investment (or, change in stock).
41
Issues in Macroeconomics and 3. Government Expenditure
National Income Accounting It includes expenditure incurred by local, state and central level governments.
Government pays salaries to their employees, spends on social security benefits
like medical benefits, unemployment allowance, etc.
4. Net Exports
Net exports are defined as exports minus imports. Exports can be seen as
spending by foreigners on domestically produced goods and services whereas
imports are spending on foreign goods and services by domestic residents. When
value of exports is greater than value of imports, net exports are positive and vice
versa.
Solution:
GDP = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 – 6
= 45000 + 5000 + 5000+ 1000 + 6000 – 7000
= Rs. 55,000 crore.
42
3.2.2 Income Method Measuring Economic
Performance
The value of product is equal to the payments made to the factors of production.
In general, there are four factors of production, viz., land, labour, capital and
entrepreneurship which are compensated through rent, wages, interest and profit,
respectively. According to this method, national income is measured in terms of
payments made to all factors of production. Hence, based on the this approach,
the GDP at market prices is the sums of the compensation of employees, gross
operating surplus, mixed income and net indirect taxes, which is taxes on
production and imports less subsidies on production. The income-side approach
shows how various factors contribute to the GDP in the production process.
3. Income of Self Employed: This is the remuneration for the work carried out
by the owner or by owner’s family of an unincorporated enterprise, which is
also called ‘mixed income’. Income of a proprietor (owners of capital, land,
and skills) earn mixed income in the form of mix of capital income, labour
income and profits. The income of this group is referred to as mixed income
because it is not clear what proportion of their income is equivalent to wage
or profit. Mixed income is different from the operating surplus in the sense
that the former is available to the self employed, while the latter accrues to
corporate and semi-corporate enterprises.
43
Issues in Macroeconomics and 5. Precautions involved in the Income Method
National Income Accounting To estimate correct national income by income method the following
precautions have to be taken:
1. Transfer payments are not included.
2. Windfall gains, such as income from lotteries, are not part of national
income.
3. Income earned from illegal activities (such as theft, smuggling, etc.) are
excluded.
4. The income earned through sale and purchase of second hand goods is not
included in national income. But commission and brokerage paid to
facilitate the sale of such goods should be included.
5. Since wealth tax, estate duties, gift tax are paid out of current income,
these are excluded from national income.
6. Imputed rent of self occupied houses is included.
7. Value of production for self consumption is included.
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and,
Further,
Net National Product (NNPFC). Thus, National Income or NNPFC = Gross Output
– Intermediate Consumption – Depreciation – Net Indirect Taxes + Net Factor
Income from Aboard
The Value Added method measures national income in different stages. The main
advantage of the value added method is that it avoids the problem of ‘double
counting’.
National income estimated by the above three methods, viz., income method,
expenditure method, and value added method are identical. Thus, National
Income ≡ National Product ≡ National Expenditure (where the symbol ≡ denotes
identical).
The term value added refers to the addition of value by a production unit to
intermediate inputs used in production. Value added is the difference between the
value of output and the cost of intermediate inputs.
Lets us illustrate the concept of value added with an example. Suppose a textile
firm purchased raw materials worth Rs. 40000 and hired labour worth Rs. 10000
to manufacture clothes. The intermediate inputs purchased is Rs. 50000. The
textile firm sold its output (clothes) for Rs. 55000. Thus, the value added by the
textile firm is Rs. 5000.
45
Issues in Macroeconomics and Precautions involved in the Product Method
National Income Accounting For correct computation of national income by income method, following
precautions need to be taken
1. Only factor incomes which are earned by rendering productive
services are included. All the transfer incomes are excluded.
2. Income earned from illegal sources (such as smuggling, theft, etc.)
should be excluded.
3. The income earned through sale and purchase of second hand
goods should not be included in national income.
But commission and brokerage paid to facilitate the sale of such
goods should be included.
4. Imputed rent of self occupied building should be included. It does
not make any difference whether a house is rented or self-
occupied.
5. Value of production for self consumption should be included. For
example, a farmer retains part of his produce for self consumption.
It does not enter the market, but it contributes to output.
6. Household work by family members (say cooking of food by a
home maker) are not included in national income. On the other
hand, the same food, if cooked by a domestic help (who is paid for
doing the work) is included in GDP.
Solution:
46
Example 3.3: A firm makes and sells jam using fruit it buys from another firm Measuring Economic
for 80,000 rupees. The firm pays its workers 50,000 rupees; pays 20,000 rupees Performance
in taxes and has profits of 40,000 rupees. What is its value added?
Solution:
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Saving and wealth are closely related with each other; but they are not the same.
Saving is that part of income which is not spent. In other words, saving is the
current income minus its spending on current needs. When we divide total saving
47
Issues in Macroeconomics and of a country by its national income then we obtain saving ratio. On the other
National Income Accounting hand, wealth is calculated as asset minus liability. Saving is a flow concept
(measured per unit of time) whereas wealth is a stock concept (measured at a
point of time). Saving takes the form of an accumulation of assets or a reduction
in liabilities; therefore, saving is the addition to wealth. The following are the
three important measures of saving:
1. Private Saving (Spvt): It is the saving by the private sector. Private saving
is the private disposable income minus consumption. Symbolically,
Spvt = Private Disposable Income – Consumption
= (Y + NFPA – T + TR +INT) – C
where,
Y = GDP
NFPA = Net factor payments from aboard
T = Taxes
TR = Transfer earnings received from government
INT = Interest income
S = Spvt + Sgovt.
S = [Y + NFPA – T + TR + INT – C] + [T –TR – INT – G]
= Y + NFPA – C – G
= GNP – C – G
The above equation shows that national savings is equal to GNP minus current
needs of private and government sectors.
We know that
GNP or Y = C + I + G + NX
48
Substituting the value of Y in national saving equation, we get Measuring Economic
Performance
S = [C + I + G + NX] + NFPA – C – G
S = I + NX + NFPA
S = I + CA
where CA = NX + NFPA, i.e., current account balance.
Also,
S = Spvt + Sgovt.
And Spvt = S – Sgovt.
= I + CA – Sgovt. (where S = I + CA)
Nominal variables are valued at their current market price and real variables are
nominal variables adjusted for inflation or deflation; valued at some base year.
The base year or constant year should be carefully selected. A change in nominal
variable reflects the combined effects of changes in quantities and changes in
prices whereas real variable provides correct picture of a variable change or
change in quantity.
Real GDP: It is also termed as GDP at constant prices. It measures the actual
growth of the economy. It is obtained by multiplying goods and services
produced in a current year with the base year prices. Increase in real GDP means
over time indicates improvement in performance of the economy. It reflects
changes in quantities.
where, base year = Price index of base year is always taken to be 100
Example3.4: Convert nominal GDP into real GDP in the following cases.
49
Issues in Macroeconomics and i) GDP at current year prices is Rs. 2,50,000 and price index for the
National Income Accounting current year is Rs. 250
ii) GDP at current year prices is Rs. 4,00,000 and current year price
index is Rs. 400
Solution:
, ,
i) GDP at constant prices = × 100 = Rs. 1,00,000
, ,
ii) GDP at constant prices = × 100 = Rs. 1,00,000
A price index is a measure of the average level of price for particular goods and
services, relative to base year prices. In other words, it is a measure of the current
price level relative to base year. There are mainly two types of price indexes:
1. GDP Deflator
2. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator measures the average level of prices of goods and services that
are included in GDP. It can be used to convert nominal GDP to real GDP. It
eliminates the effect of price increases and determines the real change in physical
output. It is the ratio of nominal GDP in a given year to real GDP In other words,
it is a price index with changing basket. Symbolically,
Example 3.5: If nominal GDP is Rs. 21,100 crore and real GDP is Rs. 20,000
crore, calculate the GDP Deflator.
Solution:
,
GDP Deflator = × 100 = 105.5
,
We can convert the nominal GDP into Real GDP by using GDP deflator, i.e.,
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures prices of buying fixed basket of consumer
goods and services. The basket have fixed list of goods and services like food,
50
clothing, fuel and housing. CPI is calculated on monthly bases. While, GDP Measuring Economic
deflator is a price index with changing basket.CPI is calculated by dividing of Performance
current cost of the basket of consumer items by the cost of the same basket of
items in the base period. CPI is the single index which can be used to measure
prices of various goods and services prevailing in an economy.
CPI = × 100
Inflation Rate
The inflation rate is the rate at which the general level of prices increases per
period. Price indices can be used to measure inflation rate. It is measured as the
percentage change in any of the price indices during a time period. It is calculated
as follows:
where P1 is the value of the price index in the previous period and P2 is the value
of the price index in the current period.
If GDP deflator rises from 100 in the previous period to 112 in the current period
then inflation rate is calculated as:
GDP is a useful measure of economic progress but not economic welfare. But
there are certain limitations of GDP as a measure of economic progress. The
main limitations are as follows:
2. Population effects are ignored: A country may have high national income
but the country may have a large population. Thus per capita income is
more representative of economic progress compared to GDP.
3. Large contribution by few: The country may have very steep inequality.
The GDP may be high, but it may be contributed by very few. Therefore,
if a small section of the population owns a large share in the GDP leaving
a smaller percentage of GDP to be shared by a greater number of people,
economic growth will not reach the poorest sections of an economy.
5. Only Legal products are included: GDP includes goods and services
produced and sold in legal markets. It also ignores certain productive
activities that does not have market transaction. For example, services of
a home maker, caring for her children and other family members, are
excluded from GDP.
In view above, GDP may not be an adequate index of social and economic
welfare. GDP and welfare may not be positively related. In many cases, an
increase in GDP does not bring about corresponding increase in economic
welfare.
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These transactions have both credit entry and debit entries. It records the
payments for the country’s exports and imports of goods, services
and financial capital, and financial transfers. All the receipts from ‘rest of the
world’ are recorded as credit, while all the payments made to ‘rest of the
world’ are recorded as debit. You should note that ‘the BoP account is always
balanced’ as it is maintained by ‘double entry book keeping system’. The
sources of funds for a country, viz., exports or the receipts
of loans and investments, are entered as credit items, while uses of funds, viz.,
imports or investment in foreign countries, are entered as debit items. The
BoP account comprises two parts, viz., current account and capital account.
3.6.1 Current Account
It records all the transactions which cause a change in the assets or liability of
a country. It includes all capital transfers such as loans and investment,
commercial borrowings between the one country and rest of the world. It
includes the following:
53
Issues in Macroeconomics and of it, e.g., acquisition of a firm in one country by a firm in another
National Income Accounting country.
The overall BOP is obtained by adding current account balance and capital
account balance. A country may have deficit in the current account. Such deficit
is compensated by surplus in capital account or depletion of foreign exchange
reserve of the country. Similarly, surplus in the current account is compensated
by deficit in capital account or accumulation of foreign exchange reserve. Thus,
in accounting sense, BoP always balances.
In the following table we present India’s BoP entries for the year 2013-14 so that
you get an idea of the various components.
54
Check Your Progress 4 Measuring Economic
Performance
1. What are the items included in the current account of BOP?
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In this unit we learnt that there are mainly three methods of measuring national
income, viz., income method, expenditure method, and output or value-added
method. In income method, sum total of all factor incomes is taken into
consideration for measurement of national income. Expenditure method deals
with expenditure on final goods and services produced during a period. In the
value-added method, we find the sum of total value added by all the sectors of an
economy. Value of national income is identical whether it is calculated by
income method or expenditure method or value added method.
We also discussed that saving is the part of income which is not consumed at the
present time; rather it is kept aside for future consumption. There are three
important measures of saving: private saving, government saving, and national
saving. For the measurement of the economic performance, we prefer real GDP
instead of the nominal GDP, as the former controls for the increase in prices.
55
Issues in Macroeconomics and
National Income Accounting
3.8 Answers/ Hints of Check Your Progress Exercises
56