STA 101

Introduction to Probability
Department: Statistics and Mathematical Sciences
College: Pure and Applied Sciences
University: Kwara State University, P.M.B. 1530, Ilorin

Number of Credit: 2
Semester: Harmattan (2019/2020)

Lecture time: 2pm to 4pm Every Friday

Lecture Venue: EDU AUD

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 LECTURE ONE
1.0 PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY

Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. It is the chance
that something will happen. Probability is the basis of inferential statistics because predictions are
based on probability, and hypotheses are tested by using probability. Probability is used to quantify
the likelihood, or chance, that an outcome of a random experiment will occur. “The chance of rain
today is 30%’’ is a statement that quantifies our feeling about the possibility of rain. The likelihood
of an outcome is quantified by assigning a number from the interval [0, 1] to the outcome (or a
percentage from 0 to 100%). Higher numbers indicate that the outcome is more likely than lower
numbers. A 0 indicates an outcome will not occur. A probability of 1 indicates an outcome will occur
with certainty.

Generally, the three approaches to probability include classical approach, empirical approach and
axiomatic approach respectively. These approaches are usually referred to as the basic interpretations
of probability.

1.1 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

This is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely. It uses sample
spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. You do not actually have to
perform the experiment to determine that probability. It is so named because it was the first type of
probability studied formally by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries. Let E be any event in
the sample space S. The probability of any event E is defined as:
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸
P(E) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑆

𝑛(𝐸)
P(E) =
𝑛(𝑆)

Where n(E) is the number of favourable outcomes, and n(S) is the number of possible outcomes.

DEFINITIONS
1.1.1 Outcome
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

1.1.2 Trial
A trial means flipping a coin once, rolling one die once, or the like. When a coin is tossed, there are
two possible outcomes: head or tail. (Note: We exclude the possibility of a coin landing on its edge.)
In the roll of a single die, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

1.1.3 Sample Point

Each element or outcome in the sample space of a probability experiment is called a sample point.

1.1.4 Sample Space

The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space of the
experiment. The sample space is denoted as S. A sample space is often defined based on the

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objectives of the analysis. A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or countable infinite set
of outcomes. A sample space is continuous if it contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of real
numbers.

1.1.5 Equally Likely Events

Equally likely events are events that have equal probability of occurrence.

1.1.6 Rounding Rule for Probabilities

Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to two or three decimal places.
When the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is permissible to round the
decimal to the first nonzero digit after the point. For example, 0.0000587 would be 0.00006.

1.1.7 Tree diagram

A tree diagram is a device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and also from
the outcome point. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example 1-1
Consider throwing a die once. What is the probability of the event of a prime number?
Solution

Let E denote event of a prime number, and S denote the sample space

𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, 𝑛(𝑆) = 6

𝐸 = {2,3,5}; 𝑛(𝐸 ) = 3

𝑛(𝐸 ) 3
P(E) = = = 0.5
𝑛(𝑆 ) 6

Example 2-1
Find the probability of getting a black 10 when drawing a card from a deck.
Solution
Let E denote event of a black 10 from a deck of playing cards, and S denote the Sample space. Hence
𝑆 = {𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠}
𝑛(𝑆) = 52
𝐸 = {𝑡ℎ𝑒 10 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 10 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏𝑠}
𝑛 (𝐸 ) = 2
𝑃(𝑎 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 10) = 𝑃(𝐸)
2
𝑃 (𝐸 ) =
52
1
𝑃 (𝐸 ) =
26

Example 3-1
If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls.

Solution

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Let B and G denote boys and girls respectively. You can obtain sample space S using a tree diagram
as shown below

B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
Sample
Space B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG

𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺 }

𝑛 (𝑆 ) = 8
Let E = Event of two girls
𝐸 = {𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵}
𝑛(𝐸) = 3
3
𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) =
8

Exercise 1-1
If an octagonal fair die is rolled once, determine
a) the sample space
b) probability of obtaining an even number
c) probability of obtaining a multiple of 3
d) probability of obtaining a prime number and
e) state the appropriate probability approach

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 LECTURE TWO
1.2 Empirical or Relative Frequency Approach
Here, the probability of an event occurring is given by the fraction of the time similar events
happened in the past. The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical
probability assumes that certain outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is
rolled), while empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes. In empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000 times, observe the
various frequencies, and use these frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome. Therefore,
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
Example 4-1
A survey of a class of 30 KWASU graduates showed that 4 graduated with First Class Honours, 10
graduated with Second Class Honours and 16 graduated with Third Class Honours. What is the
probability that a graduate selected from this group graduated with First Class Honours.
Solution
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 1PQ 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑠
𝑃{1PQ 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠} =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑑
4
𝑃{1PQ 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠} =
30
2
𝑃{1PQ 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠} =
15
Example 5-1
Suppose that a researcher for the American Automobile Association (AAA) asked 50 people who
plan to travel over the Thanks giving holiday how they will get to their destination. The results can
be categorized in a frequency distribution as shown.
Method Frequency
Drive 41
Fly 6
Train or Bus 3
Total 50

Probabilities can be computed for various categories for the three categories are:
41
𝑃 (𝐷𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔) =
50
3
𝑃(𝐹𝑙𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔) =
25
3
𝑃 (𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑢𝑠) =
50

Example 6-1
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.

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d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Source: The American Red Cross

Solution
Blood Type Frequency
O 21
A 22
B 5
AB 2
Total 50

UV
a. 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝑂 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 ) = WX
UU W U[
b. 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐵𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 ) = WX + WX = WX
W U [
c. 𝑃(𝑁𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝑂 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 ) = WX + WX = WX
U
d. 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = WX
e. 𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑)
2
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 1 −
50
24
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) =
25
Alternatively,
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 ) = 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒𝑂 + 𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴 + 𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑)
21 22 5
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 ) = + +
50 50 50
24
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 ) =
25

Exercise 2-1
Suppose it is on records that out 25 fresh students who offered STA 101 in the 2013/2014 academic
session at Kwara State University, 10 are from Statistics department, 8 are from Electrical
Engineering department while the remaining 7 were from Physics department respectively. What are
the chances of having STA 101 students in the 2014/2015 academic session from
a) Statistics department
b) Physics department
c) Electrical engineering department
d) Hence or otherwise, what approach of probability is this?

1.3 Axiomatic Approach

This is an approach based on the four basic laws of probability. It is such that probabilities problems
are solved using understanding of nature of probability as measure of uncertainty, in deciding
correctness of answers to such problems.

1.3.1 The Axioms of Probability

Let E denote an event in sample space S such that 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸. Then 𝑃(𝐸) is
said to be a true probability function if and only if the following axioms are satisfied
1. 𝟎 ≤ 𝒑(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏

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 Interpretation: The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal)
between and including 0 and 1. The simple implication of this is that probabilities can neither
be negative nor greater than 1
2. 𝑷(∅) = 𝟎
Interpretation: If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample
space), its probability is 0.
3. 𝑷(𝑬) = 𝑷𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝟏
Interpretation: If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
4. 𝑷(𝑺) = 𝟏
Interpretation: The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

1.4 Events: An event is defined as any subset of the outcome set S in a probability experiment. It is a
subset of the sample space of a random experiment.

1.4.1 Combination of Events

In probability theory, events are usually combined using the basic set operations; union, intersection
and complements. Interpretations of these basic set operations are summarized in what follows:
• The union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in either
of the two events. We denote the union as 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵.
• The intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in
both of the two events. We denote the intersection as 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 .
• The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in the sample space that
are not in the event. We denote the component of the event A as 𝐴o .

It should be noted that diagrams are often used to portray relationships between sets, and these
diagrams are also used to describe relationships between events. We can use Venn diagrams to
represent a sample space and events in a sample space.

Illustrations
(a) (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)o

1.4.2 Types of Events

1. Independent Events
Two events 𝐸V and 𝐸U are said to be independent if the occurrence of 𝐸V does not prevent that
of 𝐸U from happening. This simply means that both events can occur simultaneously.
Mathematically, 𝐸V and 𝐸U independent if and only if
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U )

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2. Dependent Events
Events 𝐸V and 𝐸U are said to be dependent if the occurrence of 𝐸V prevents that of 𝐸U from
happening or if they depend on each other. This implies that occurrence of one depends on
the other.
Mathematically, 𝐸V and 𝐸U are dependent if an only if
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U /𝐸V )
3. Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if they are disjoint. 𝐸V and 𝐸U , for
instance are said to be mutually exclusive if 𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U = ∅

Example 7-1
Consider rolling a die once with the following events,
𝐸V = (𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠)
= {2,4,6},
𝐸U = (𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠)
= {1,3,5},
𝐸s = (𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 1)
= {4}

Events 𝐸V and 𝐸U are mutually exclusive because 𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U = ∅ which implies that in a throw
of a single die, we cannot have event of an even and an odd numbers together. But events
𝐸V and 𝐸s are independent because 𝐸V ∩ 𝐸s = 4. This means that an event can contain an
outcome which is both even and a perfect square greater than1.

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2.0 Interpretation of Probability
Based on the axioms of probability presented in previous section, the following interpretation can be
given to probability values
1. When the probability of an event is close to 0, its occurrence is highly unlikely.
2. When the probability of an event is near 0.5, there is about a 50-50 chance that the event will
occur; and
3. when the probability of an event is close to 1, the event is highly likely to occur.

Example 2-1
Consider an experiment of tossing a coin 3 times. What is the probability of
1. obtaining 4 heads
2. obtaining at most 4 heads
3. obtaining at least 1 tail
Solution
Since a single coin has two possible outcomes of H and T, the sample space for tossing 3 coins
together can be obtained using tree diagram,
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}

𝑛 (𝑆 ) = 8
3 rd
coin Outcomes
2nd H; HHH
coin
H
1st T; HHT
coin H; HTH
H
T
T; HTT
H; THH
H
T; THT
T H; TTH

T
T; TTT

1. Let 𝐸V denote event of obtaining 4 heads. Since S does not contain HHHH, 𝐸V = ∅ and
𝑃{∅} = 0
2. Let 𝐸U denote event of at most 4 heads. Hence
𝐸U = {𝐻 ≤ 4}
𝐸U = {∅, 3𝐻, 2𝐻 𝑜𝑟 1𝐻 }
𝑃(𝐸U ) = 𝑃(∅) + 𝑃(3𝐻) + 𝑃(2𝐻) + 𝑃 (1𝐻)
0 3 3 1
𝑃(𝐸U ) = + + +
8 8 8 8

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 7
𝑃(𝐸U ) =
8
3. Let 𝐸s denote event of at least 1 tail. Hence
𝐸s = {𝑇 ≥ 1}
𝐸s = {1𝑇, 2𝑇, 𝑜𝑟 3𝑇}
𝑃(𝐸s ) = 𝑃(1𝑇) + 𝑃(2𝑇) + 𝑃(3𝑇)
3 3 1
𝑃(𝐸s ) = + +
8 8 8
7
𝑃(𝐸s ) =
8
Alternatively,
𝑃(𝐸s ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑇)
1
𝑃(𝐸s ) = 1 −
8
7
𝑃(𝐸s ) =
8

2.1 Interpretation of “OR” and “AND” in Probability Problems

In probability theory, the word “or” simply means addition. It is synonymous to words such as
“either”, “neither” and “union operation in set theory”. On the other hand, the word “and” simply
means product (multiplication) and it is synonymous to words like “both”, “together” and
“intersection operation in set theory”. Hence
𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟𝐸U ) and
𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U )

2.2 Addition and Multiplication Rules of Probability

2.2.1 Addition Rule Non-mutually Exclusive Events
For any two independent events 𝐸V and 𝐸U ,

𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U )

For any three independent events 𝐸V , 𝐸U and 𝐸s ,

𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ∪ 𝐸s ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) + 𝑃p (𝐸s ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸s )

−𝑃p (𝐸U ∩ 𝐸s ) + 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ∩ 𝐸s )

𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ∪ 𝐸s ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) + 𝑃p (𝐸s ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸s )

−𝑃p (𝐸U ∩ 𝐸s ) + 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ∩ 𝐸s )

2.2.2 Addition Rule for mutually exclusive events

For any two independent events 𝐸V and 𝐸U ,

𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) [𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) = 0]

For any three independent events 𝐸V , 𝐸U and 𝐸s ,

𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ∪ 𝐸s ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) + 𝑃p (𝐸s )

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Example 2-2
In a single throw of a fair die, what is the probability that an odd number or a perfect square greater
than 1 shows up?

Solution
𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let 𝐸V = 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑠 𝑢𝑝
𝐸V = {1,3,5}
𝐸U = 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 1 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑠 𝑢𝑝

𝐸U = {4}

𝑛(𝑆) = 6,

𝑛(𝐸V ) = 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 and

𝑛(𝐸s ) = 1

𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) = 0

Since 𝐸V and 𝐸U are mutually exclusive,

𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U )

3 1
𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) = +
6 6
4
𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) =
6
2
𝑃p (𝐸V ∪ 𝐸U ) =
3
Example 3-2
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events, is it possible for P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4, and P(C) =
0.5? Why or why not?
Solution
No, they are not mutually exclusive because
𝑃𝑟(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃𝑟(𝐴) + 𝑃𝑟(𝐵) + 𝑃𝑟(𝐶 )
𝑃𝑟(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.5
𝑃𝑟(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 1.2 > 1
Example 4-2
U
The probability that a student passes STA 101 test is s, and the probability that the student passes
| [
STA 103 test is }. If the probability of passing at least one course is }; what is the probability that he
will pass STA 101 or STA 103 test?
Solution

Let 𝐸V = 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑆𝑇𝐴 101 𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡

𝐸U = 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑆𝑇𝐴 103 𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡

𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U )

Page 11
 2 4 7
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸U ) = + −
3 9 9
6+4−7
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸U ) =
9
3
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸U ) =
9
1
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸U ) =
3
Example 5-2
On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a
person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person having a driving accident
while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person driving while intoxicated or having a
driving accident?
Solution
Let 𝐸V = 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑
𝐸U = ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝑃p (𝐸V ) = 0.32, 𝑃p (𝐸U ) = 0.09 and 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) = 0.06

𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸V ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐸U ) − 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U )

𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸V ) = 0.32 + 0.09 − 0.06

𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑜𝑟 𝐸V ) = 0.35

Page 12
 LECTURE THREE
3.0 Multiplication Rule
3.1 Multiplication Rule 1 [Independent Events]
When two events 𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U are independent, the probability of both occurring is
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸V ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U )
𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸V ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U )

For three events 𝐸V , 𝐸U and 𝐸s ,

𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸V ∩ 𝐸s ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U ) × 𝑃p (𝐸s )

3.1.1 Multiplication Rule 2 [Dependent Events]

When two events 𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸V ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U /𝐸V )

Example 1-3
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the
die.
Solution
𝑆 = {𝐻1 𝐻2 𝐻3 𝐻4 𝐻5 𝐻6 𝑇1 𝑇2 𝑇3 𝑇4 𝑇5 𝑇6}
𝑃p (𝑎 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 4) = 𝑃p (𝐻) × 𝑃p (4) [𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡]
1 1
𝑃p (𝑎 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 4) = ×
2 6
1
𝑃p (𝑎 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 4) =
12

Example 2-3
A man owns a house in town and a cottage in the country. In any one year the probability of the
house being burgled is 0.01 and the probability of the cottage being burgled is 0.05. In any one year
what is the probability that:
(a) both will be burgled? (b) one or the other (but not both) will be burgled?

Solution:
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐻 = {ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑢𝑟𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑑} 𝐶 = {𝑐𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑢𝑟𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑑 }
a. 𝑎. 𝑃 (𝐻 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐻) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶 ) [Since events are independent]
= (0.01) × (0.05)
= 0.0005
b. 𝑏. 𝑃Ž𝑂𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟(𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ )• = 𝑃(𝑂𝑛𝑙𝑦 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑢𝑟𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑑) 𝑜𝑟 (𝑂𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑢𝑟𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑑)
= 𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐶 o ) ∪ 𝑃 (𝐻o ∩ 𝐶 )
= 𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐶 o ) + 𝑃 (𝐻o ∩ 𝐶 )
= Ž0.01 × (1 − 0.05)• + Ž(1 − 0.01) × 0.05•
= (0.01 × 0.95) + 0.99 × 0.05
= 0.059

Page 13
Example 3-3 [University Scholarship]
At KWASU, there were 5 University scholars reported in 2010, 16 in 2011, and 32 in 2013. If a
researcher wishes to select at random two scholars to prepare for scholarship in 2014, find the
probability that both will be selected from 2010.

Solution
In this case, the events are dependent since the researcher wishes to select two distinct scholars.
Hence the first scholar is selected and not replaced.
Let 𝑆 = 𝑆𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟
𝑃p (𝑆V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆U ) = 𝑃p (𝑆V ) × 𝑃p (𝑆U /𝑆V )
5 4
= ×
53 52
= 20/2862
= 0.007

Example 4-3 [Homeowner’s and Automobile Insurance]

World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s
insurance (H) with the company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the
company. If a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both
homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance Company.

Solution
𝑃(𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐻) × 𝑃(𝐴/𝐻) = (0.53) × (0.27) = 0.1431

Example 5-3
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected
at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first fuse. What is the
probability that both fuses are defective?

Solution
Total number of fuses in the box = 20
Let 𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐸V = 𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑠𝑒
𝐸U = 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠
5
𝑃p (𝐸V ) =
20
4
𝑃p (𝐸U ) =
19
𝑃p 𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ) ∩ 𝑃p (𝐸U /𝐸V )
(
W |
= UX × V}
V
= V}
= 0.05

Page 14
Example 6-3 [Winning a Door Prize]
At a gathering consisting of 10 men and 20 women, two door prizes are awarded. The winning ticket
is not replaced. Find the probability that
a. both prizes are won by men.
b. both prizes are won by women
c. a man wins one and a woman wins one.
d. Would you consider this event in a, b, and c likely or unlikely to occur?
Solution
𝑀 = 𝑀𝑒𝑛, 𝑛(𝑀) = 10
𝑊 = 𝑊𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛, 𝑛(𝑊) = 20
VX UX
𝑃p (𝑀) = , 𝑃p (𝑊 ) =
sX sX
a. 𝑎. 𝑃p (𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑀𝑒𝑛) = 𝑃p (𝑀) × 𝑃p (𝑀/𝑀)
VX }
= sX × U}
s
= U}
= 0.10 [The event is unlikely]
b. 𝑏. 𝑃p (𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑊𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛) = 𝑃p (𝑊 ) × 𝑃p (𝑊/𝑊 )
UX V}
= sX × U}
s˜
= ˜[
= 0.44 [The event is more likely]
c. 𝑐. 𝑃p 𝐴 𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ) = 𝑃p (𝑀 ∩ 𝑊/𝑀) + 𝑃p (𝑊 ∩ 𝑀/𝑊 )
(
VX UX UX VX
= ›sX × U} œ + ›sX × U} œ
|XX
= ˜[X
= 0.46 [The event is more likely]
Exercise 1-3
Two boys are chosen at random from a class consisting of 18 boys and 12 girls. What is the
probability that the two students selected are
i. both boys
ii. both girls
iii. of the same sex
iv. a boy and a girl

3.2 Sampling with and without Replacement

In the theory of Probability and Statistics, counting processes involve selection (combination) and
arrangement (permutations) respectively. Sampling with replacement as the name implies occurs
when object is selected and then replaced before the next is selected. It is synonymous to
permutation because it involves repetition. On the other hand, sampling without replacement occurs
when object is selected but it is not replaced before the next is selected. It is synonymous to
combination. It is such that after the first selection, the total number of items for the next selection is
the initial total minus one. In computing probability values of events using these schemes, the
denomination remains the same, with replacement, while it reduces with each selection, without
replacement.

Page 15
Example 7-3
A bag contains 7 W, 3 R, and 5 B balls. Three are drawn without replacement. Find the Probability
that:
a. No ball is Red
b. Exactly one is Red
c. At least one is Red
d. All are of the same colour
e. No two are of the same colour

Solution
𝑺 = 𝟕𝑾, 𝟓𝑾, 𝟑𝑹, 𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟏𝟓
a. Let 𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐸V = 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U = 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
𝑛(𝐸V ) = 3,
𝑛(𝐸U ) = 7𝑊 + 5𝐵 = 12
12 11 10
𝑃p (𝑁𝑜 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑑 ) = × ×
15 14 13
VsU
= U[s
||
= }V
= 0.4835

b. 𝑏. 𝑃p (𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑑 ) = 𝑃p (𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ∩ 𝐸U ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐸U ∩ 𝐸V ∩ 𝐸U ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐸U ∩ 𝐸U ∩ 𝐸V )

s VU VV VU s VV VU VV s
= ›VW × V| × Vsœ + ›VW × V| × Vsœ + ›VW × V| × Vsœ
= 0.4352

c. 𝑐. 𝑃p (𝐴𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑑 ) = 1 − 𝑃p (𝑛𝑜 𝑅𝑒𝑑 )

= 1 − 0.4835
= 0.5165
d. 𝑑. 𝑃p (𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟 ) = 𝑃p (𝑊𝑊𝑊 ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝑅𝑅𝑅) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐵𝐵𝐵)
[ ¤ W s U V W | s
= ›VW × V| × Vsœ + ›VW × V| × Vsœ + ›VW × V| × Vsœ
UVX s ¤X
= ›U[sX œ + ›U[sX œ + ›U[sX œ
U[s
= U[sX
= 0.1

e. 𝑒. 𝑃p (𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠) = 𝑃p (𝑊𝐵𝑅) ∪ 𝑃p (𝑊𝑅𝐵) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐵𝑅𝑊 ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐵𝑊𝑅) ∪

𝑃p (𝑅𝑊𝐵) ∪ 𝑃p (𝑅𝐵𝑊)
[ W s
= ›VW × V| × Vsœ × 6
= 0.231

Page 16
 LECTURE FOUR
4.0 Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event 𝐸U in relationship to an event 𝐸V was defined as the
probability that event 𝐸U occurs after event 𝐸V has already occurred. The conditional probability of
an event can be found by dividing both sides of the equation for multiplication rule 2 by𝑃p (𝐸V ), as
shown next:
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U ) 𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐸U /𝐸V )
=
𝑃p (𝐸V ) 𝑃p (𝐸V )
𝑃p (𝐸V 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸U )
𝑃p (𝐸U /𝐸V ) =
𝑃p (𝐸V )
Interpretation:
The probability that the second event 𝐸U occurs given that the first event 𝐸V has occurred can be
found by dividing the probability that both events occurred by the probability that the first event has
occurred.

Example 1-4
A KWASU student is enrolled in a course in Geology (G) and a course in Statistics (S). The
probabilities that the student will pass Geology, Statistics, or both subjects are, respectively, 𝑃(𝐺) =
0.8, 𝑃(𝑆) = 0.7, and 𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝑀) = 0.56.
(a) What is the probability that the student will pass Geology given that the student passes Statistics?
(b) Are the events G and S independent?

Solution
¥¦ (§ ¨©ª «)
a. We need to find 𝑃p (𝐺/𝑆) = ¥¦ («)
X.W¤
= X.[
= 0.8
b. Since 𝑃p (𝐺/𝑆) = 𝑃p (𝐺 ) = 0.8 [Events G and S are independent]

Example 2-4
A maintenance firm has gathered the following information regarding the failure mechanisms for air
conditioning systems:

Evidence of Gas Leak

Evidence of Yes No
electrical failure Yes 55 17
No 32 3
The units without evidence of gas leaks or electrical failure showed other types of failure. If this is a
representative sample of AC failure, find the probability

(a) That failure involves a gas leak

(b) That there is evidence of electrical failure given that there was a gas leak

(c) That there is evidence of a gas leak given that there is evidence of electrical failure

Page 17
Solution

a) 𝑃(𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘) = (55 + 32)/107 = 0.813

b) 𝑃(𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒|𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘) = (55/107)/(87/102) = 0.632

c) 𝑃(𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘| 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒) = (55/107)/(72/107) = 0.764

Example 3-4
In a sample of 100 college students, 60 said they own a car, 30 said they own a stereo, and 10 said
they own both a car and a stereo. What is the probability of a student's having a stereo given the
student has a car?
Solution
¤X
𝐶 = 𝐴 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑠 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑟, 𝑃p (𝐶 ) = VXX
sX
𝑆 = 𝐴 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑠 𝑎 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑜, 𝑃p (𝑆) = VXX
10
𝑃p (𝐶𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆) =
100
𝑃p (𝐶 ∩ 𝑆)
𝑃p (𝑆|𝐶 ) =
𝑃p (𝐶 )
10 60
𝑃p (𝑆|𝐶 ) = ÷
100 100
10 100
𝑃p (𝑆|𝐶 ) = ×
100 60
1
𝑃p (𝑆|𝐶 ) =
6

4.1 Total Probability Rule

4.1.1 Total Probability Rule for Two Events
For any two events A and B such that A and 𝐴o are two distinct partitions of the sample space and
𝑃p (𝐴® ) > 0 for all 𝐴® , the total probability rule is given as
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴o )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴)𝑃p (𝐴) + 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴o )𝑃p (𝐴o )

Figure 1-4: Partitioning An

event into two mutually
exclusive subsets

One of the uses of the rule is to compute the probability of various events B for which the
conditional probabilities 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴® ) are known or easy to derive.

4.1.2 Total Probability Rule for More than Two Events

Page 18
Let 𝐸V , 𝐸U , ⋯ , 𝐸© are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events which are partitions of B in the
sample. Then
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐸U ) + ⋯ + 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐸© )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸V )𝑃p (𝐸V ) + 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸U )𝑃p (𝐸U ) + ⋯ + 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸© )𝑃p (𝐸© )

Figure 2-4: Partitioning an event

into several mutually exclusive
subsets

Example 4-4:
Suppose that 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵) = 0.2, 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵o ) = 0.3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.8 , what is 𝑃p (𝐴)?
Solution:
𝑃p (𝐴) = 𝑃p (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃p (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵o )
𝑃p (𝐴) = 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵)𝑃p (𝐵) + 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵o )𝑃p (𝐵o )
𝑃p (𝐴) = 0.2 × 0.8 + 0.3 × 0.2
𝑃p (𝐴) = 0.16 + 0.6
𝑃p (𝐴) = 0.22

Example 5-4:
The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty period of
a portable connector. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure during the warranty
period is 5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what proportion of connectors
fail during the warranty period?

Solution
Let 𝐴V = 𝐷𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑, 𝑃p (𝐴V ) = 0.01
𝐴U = 𝑊𝑒𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑, 𝑃p (𝐴U ) = 0.05
𝐵 = 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑, 𝑃p (𝐵) =?
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴V ) = 0.9 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴U ) = 0.1
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴V ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴U )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴V )𝑃p (𝐴V ) + 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴U )𝑃p (𝐴U )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.9 × 0.01 + 0.1 × 0.05
𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.014

Example 6-4:
Suppose 2% of cotton fabric rolls and 3% of nylon fabric rolls contain flaws. Of the rolls used by a
manufacturer, 70% are cotton and 30% are nylon. What is the probability that a randomly selected
roll used by the manufacturer contains flaws?
Solution:

Page 19
Let 𝐴V = 𝐹𝑎𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑠, 𝑃p (𝐴V ) = 0.02
𝐴U = 𝑁𝑦𝑙𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑠, 𝑃p (𝐴U ) = 0.03
𝐵 = 𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤, 𝑃p (𝐵) =?
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴V ) = 0.7 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴U ) = 0.3
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴V ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴U )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴V )𝑃p (𝐴V ) + 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴U )𝑃p (𝐴U )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.7 × 0.02 + 0.3 × 0.03
𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.023

Example 7-4:
Samples of laboratory glass are in small, light packaging or heavy, large packaging. Suppose that 2
and 1% of the sample shipped in small and large packages, respectively, break during transit. If 60%
of the samples are shipped in large packages and 40% are shipped in small packages, what
proportion of samples break during shipment?
Solution
Let 𝐴V = 𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑎𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡, 𝑃p (𝐴V ) = 0.02
𝐴U = 𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑎𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡, 𝑃p (𝐴U ) = 0.01
𝐵 = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡, 𝑃p (𝐵) =?
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴V ) = 0.4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴U ) = 0.6
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴V ) ∪ 𝑃p (𝐵 ∩ 𝐴U )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴V )𝑃p (𝐴V ) + 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴U )𝑃p (𝐴U )
𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.4 × 0.02 + 0.6 × 0.01
𝑃p (𝐵) = 0.014

4.2 Bayes’ Rule

Bayes’ Rule
Let 𝐸V , 𝐸U , ⋯ , 𝐸© be disjoint events that form a partition of the sample space, and assume that
𝑃(𝐸® ) > 0, for all i. Then, for any event B such that 𝑃(𝐵) > 0, we have

𝑃p (𝐸® ) × 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸® )
𝑃p (𝐸® |𝐵) =
𝑃p (𝐵)
𝑃p (𝐸® ) × 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸® )
𝑃p (𝐸® |𝐵) =
𝑃p (𝐸V ) × 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸® ) + ⋯ + 𝑃p (𝐸© ) × 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐸© )

Example 8-4: [The False-Positive Puzzle]

A test for a certain rare disease is assumed to be correct 95% of the time: if a person has the disease,
the test results are positive with probability 0.95, and if the person does not have the disease, the test
results are negative with probability 0.95. A random person drawn from a certain population has
probability 0.001 of having the disease. Given that the person just tested positive, what is the
probability of having the disease?
Solution
If A is the event that the person has the disease, and B is the event that the test results are positive,
the desired probability 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵), is
𝑃p (𝐴)𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴)
𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃p (𝐴)𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴) + 𝑃p (𝐴o )𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴o )
0.001 × 0.95
𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵) =
0.001 × 0.95 + 0.999 × 0.05

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𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵) = 0.0187

Example 9-4:
Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In THE PAST, 95% of highly
successful products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products
Received good reviews, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of
products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been
poor products.
a. What is the probability that a product attains a good review?
b. If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be highly successful
product?
c. If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be highly
successful?
Solution:
Let G denote a product that received a good review. Let H, M, and P denote products that were high,
moderate, and poor performers, respectively.
a. 𝑃p (𝐺 ) = 𝑃p (𝐺|𝐻)𝑃p (𝐻) + 𝑃p (𝐺|𝑀)𝑃p (𝑀) + 𝑃p (𝐺|𝑃)𝑃p (𝑃)
𝑃p (𝐺 ) = 0.95(0.40) + 0.60(0.35) + 0.10(0.25)
𝑃p (𝐺 ) = 0.615
b. Using the results from part a.,
𝑃p (𝐺|𝐻)𝑃p (𝐻)
𝑃p (𝐻|𝐺 ) =
𝑃p (𝐺)
0.95(0.40)
𝑃p (𝐻|𝐺 ) =
0.615
𝑃p (𝐻|𝐺 ) = 0.618

¥¦ Ž§ ²|³•¥¦ (³)
c. 𝑃p (𝐻|𝐺 o ) = ¥¦ (§ ² )
0.05(0.40)
𝑃p (𝐻|𝐺 ) =
1 − 0.615
𝑃p (𝐻|𝐺 ) = 0.052

Example 10-4:
Suppose that 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵o ) = 0.7, 𝑃p (𝐴) = 0.5 and 𝑃p (𝐵o ) = 0.2. 𝐷𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴).

Solution
𝑃p (𝐵) × 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵)
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃p (𝐵) × 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵) + 𝑃p (𝐵o ) × 𝑃p (𝐴|𝐵o )
0.2 × 0.7
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴) =
0.2 × 0.7 + 0.8 × 0.3
0.14
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴) =
0.14 + 0.24
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴) = 0.3684
𝑃p (𝐵|𝐴) = 0.4

Page 21
 LECTURE 5
Factorial Arithmetic, Permutation and Combination
5.0 Factorial Arithmetic
In 1808, Christian Kramp first used a counting product called the Factorial notation. Factorials are
denoted by the exclamation mark (!). The number of different arrangements of n different objects is
denoted by n!. Hence
𝑛! = 𝑛 × (𝑛 − 1) × (𝑛 − 2) ×, ⋯ ,× 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
0! = 0
1! = 1
5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120
5! = 5 × 4! = 120
4! = 4 × 3! = 24
3! = 3 × 2! = 6
2! = 2 × 1 = 2 etc.

5.1 Permutation
Permutation simply means arrangement in mathematical terms. It is an arrangement of n objects in a
specified order. Therefore, the arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time
©!
is called a permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is written as 𝑛¥¦ = .
(©µp)!

W! W! W×|×s×U!
5¥¶ = (Wµs)! = U! = U!
= 5 × 4 × 3 = 60

5! 5! 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
5¥· = = = = 120
(5 − 5)! 0! 1
20! 20! 20 × 19 × 18 × 17 × 16!
20¥¸ = = = = 20 × 19 × 18 × 17 = 116280
(20 − 4)! 16! 16!

Example1-5: [Arrangement of graduands at a convocation ceremony]

Suppose you to arrange graduands from the 6 colleges in KWASU for collection of certificates at a
convocation ceremony taking only 2 colleges at a time. Determine the number of possible ways.
Solution
Any college can be selected first in 6 ways, any other college can be selected in the remaining (6-1)
ways. The required number of ways = 6 ∙ 5 = 30𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Alternatively,
𝑛 = 6 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟 = 2
¤! ¤! ¤×W×|!
6¥¹ = (¤µU)! = |! = |!
= 30𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

Example 2-5:[Arranging answerss in a test paper]

A test paper has six questions but four are to be answered. In how many ways can the answers be
arranged?

Page 22
Solution
First question can be answered in 6different ways, second can be answered in 5 different ways, third
can be answered in 4 different ways and the fourth can be answered in 3 different ways. The required
number of ways is therefore 6 ∙ 5 ∙ 4 ∙ 3 = 360𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Alternatively,
¤! ¤! ¤×W×|×s×U!
6¥¸ = (¤µ|)! = U! = U!
= 30𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

Example 3-5: [Manufacturing Tests]

An inspector must select 3 tests to perform in a certain order on a manufactured part. He has a choice
of 7 tests. How many ways can he perform 3 different tests? 210
Solution
7! 7! 7 × 6 × 5 × 4!
7¥¶ = = = = 210 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
(7 − 3)! 4! 4!

5.1.1 Permutation (arrangement) of identical objects

The number of ways of arranging n objects taking r at a time of which 𝑟V , 𝑟U , ⋯ , 𝑟© are identical is
©!
pº !×p¹ !,⋯p»!
Example 5-5
In how many ways can letters of the word MATHEMATICS be arranged?
Solution
There are 11 letters of which there 2As, 2Ms and 2Ts. Hence the required number of ways is
VV!
U!×U!×U!
= 6652800𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

5.1.2 Conditional Permutation

This involves arrangements of n objects taking r of them a time following some restrictions on the
order (or manner) of the arrangement. For instance we may be interested in the number of ways in
which the letters of the word SHALLOW can be arranged if
i. the two Ls must not come together
ii. the two Ls must always come together

Solution
By removing the two Ls, the remaining letter (SHAOW) can be arranged in 5! Ways.
i. If the two Ls must not come together, the first L can occupy any of 6 places below
•S•H•A•O•W•
When this is done, there are 5 places for the second L not next to the first. Hence, the
required number of arrangements with separate Ls 5! •6•5 supposing the Ls are
distinguishable. But here, the two Ls are nit distinguishable. Hence the number of
W! •¤•W
arrangements is U
= 5! × 15 = 1800𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
ii. The two Ls are identical here. S we take them as one oject. There are 6 places for each of the
5! Arrangements of the word SHAOW. Hence, the required number of ways = 5! × 6 = 6! =
720 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

Example 6-5
Find the number of arrangements using all the letters of the word PERCENTAGE if Es must be
placed next to each other.

Page 23
Solution
By removing the Es, the word PERCENTAGE becomes PRCNTAG and it can be arranged in 7!
Ways. The letter Es are taken as one (since they must be placed side by side) and can occupy the 8
places in •P•R•C•N•T•A•G•
Hence, the required number of arrangements 7! × 8 = 8! = 40320 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

5.1.3 Permutation in ring (or cyclic permutation)

This involves arrangement of n objects in a cycle, in a thread (such as beads in thread) or in a round
table (such as people in a round table meeting or conference) such one of them must be taken as a
start point or reference the leaving the remaining (n-1)! from arrangement from either directions. It
should be noted that if the objects can move about or rotate in their positions, the number
(©µV)!
arrangements should be U
.

Example 7-5
a. In how many ways can six people take places at a round table?
b. How many ways are there if two people must sit next to each other?
c. How many ways are there if two people must not sit next o each other?
Solution
a. Here, one of them will take a place (no matter where). So, there are 5 choices for the second
person, 4 choices for the third person, 3 choices for the fourth person, 2 choices for the fifth
person and 1 choice for the sixth. The number of ways
= 5•4•3•2•1 = 120
b. For two people to sit next to each other at the table, there are 2 possible ways: the second can
sit to the right or left of the first. The third person then has a choice of 4 places, the fourth
person has a choice of 3 places, the fifth person has a choice of 2 places and the 6 person has
a choice of 1 place. Hence the number of ways
= 2•4•3•2•1 = 48
c. Two methods are possible here,
Method1
Number of ways of sitting 6 people on round table = 120

A C
F •

• D
E •
Figure 1-5: Permutation at a round table

Page 24
Number of ways of sitting 6 people, if two people must sit next to each other = 48. Hence number of
ways of sitting 6 people at a round table if 2 people must not sit next to each other = 120 -48
= 72
Method 2:
Refer to figure 1-5 above. Let one of the two people (say A) take a position, leaving behind the other
person for the moment. The rest people (C,D,E,F) can take their places in 4! Ways. By now B has 3
choices so as not to sit next to A. Therefore, the required number of ways = 24 × 3 = 72 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

Exercise 1-5
1. In how many ways can four men and two women be seated at a round table if the women do
not sit next to each other.
2. Application: How many ways can 5 people sit on a park bench if the bench can only seat 3
people?
3. A bookshelf has space for exactly 5 books. How many different ways can 5 books be
arranged on this bookshelf?
4. You are moderating a debate of gubernatorial candidates. How many different ways can you
seat the panelists in a row? Call them Rasheedat, Abduljaleel, Melody, Ayinla, and Sophiat.
5. A wine taster claims that she can distinguish four vintages or a particular Cabernet. What is
the probability that she can do this by merely guessing (she is confronted with 4 unlabeled
glasses)? (hint: without replacement)

5.2 Combination
The term combination simply means selection. A selection of distinct objects without regard to order
is called a combination. The number of ways that r objects can be selected from
n objects without regard to order, is called combination rule given as
𝑛!
𝑛½¦ = 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑛 ≥ 𝑟
(𝑛 − 1)! × 𝑟!
Where
𝑛½¦ = 𝑛½(»¾¦)
Poof:
Recall that
𝑛!
𝑛½¦ =
(𝑛 − 1)! × 𝑟!
Hence,
𝑛!
𝑛½(»¾¦) =
Ž𝑛 − (𝑛 − 𝑟)•! × (𝑛 − 𝑟)!
𝑛!
𝑛½(»¾¦) =
(𝑛 − 𝑛 + 𝑟 )! × (𝑛 − 𝑟 )!
𝑛!
𝑛½(»¾¦) = ≡ 𝑛½¦
𝑟! × (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Page 25
Example 8-5:

Sample Space Number of Ways

1P ,3 H 3C1 • 5 C3 = 3 • 10 = 30
2 P,2 H 3C2 • 5C2 = 3 • 10 = 30
3 P ,1H 3C3 • 5 C1 = 1 • 5 = 5
Total 30 + 30 + 5 = 65

Page 26