ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
27 May 2024
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño is transitioning toward ENSO-neutral.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western
and central Pacific Ocean, and below-average SSTs are emerging in the east-
central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in in the next month. La Niña
may develop in June-August 2024 (49% chance) or July-September (69%
chance).*
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)
From March-October 2023, positive sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies in
the eastern Pacific Ocean expanded
and shifted westward.
In October and November 2023, SST
anomalies increased in the central and
east-central Pacific.
Since late December 2023, positive SST
anomalies have weakened across most
of the Pacific.
Since mid March 2024, below-average
SSTs have emerged in the eastern
Pacific and have expanded slightly
westward.
Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution
The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in the central and
western Pacific Ocean. Near-to-below-average SSTs were evident in the east-central
and eastern Pacific Ocean.
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30
Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the western and central
Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. Near-to-below-average SSTs were evident
in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
30
26
30
Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks
During the last 4 weeks, above-average SSTs
have gradually weakened across the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Below-average SSTs have strengthened in the
east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, negative SST anomaly changes were observed across most of
the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific
The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)
heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.
The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least
(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
Recent values of the upper-ocean heat
anomalies (below average) and thermocline
slope index (slightly above average) reflect a
transition toward ENSO-neutral.
The monthly thermocline slope index represents the
difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies
Positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted through mid-January 2024. Variability in the
positive anomalies was associated with several oceanic Kelvin waves. Starting in November 2023, positive
subsurface temperature anomalies weakened to near zero. From late January to mid-April 2024,
negative temperature anomalies emerged and strengthened. For the last month or so, negative anomalies
have persisted.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
Over the last couple months, negative subsurface
temperature anomalies have dominated the equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
Most recent pentad analysis
Below-average temperatures reached the surface in
the eastern Pacific Ocean (near 130º-90ºW).
Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
Above-average OLR (suppressed convection and
precipitation) was ev ident around the Date Line,
Philippines, and Southeast Asia. Below-average
OLR (enhanced convection and precipitation) was
observed over Papua New Guinea.
Low-level (850-hPa) winds were easterly over a
small region of the east-central equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were
cross equatorial near the Date Line and east-
central equatorial Pacific.
Intraseasonal Variability
Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
Related to this activity:
Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity
(dashed and dotted lines) has been present
throughout the period shown.
Through January 2024, above-average subsurface
temperatures persisted across most of the Pacific
Ocean.
From November 2023 through March 2024, below-
average temperatures strengthened in the western
Pacific Ocean and shifted into the eastern Pacific.
In late February-May 2024, another upwelling
Kelv in wave shifted eastward. Below-average
subsurface temperatures have persisted.
Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating
warm and cold phases. The warm phase is
indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and
warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin
wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the
trailing portion.
Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian-Oscillation
(MJO) has contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
An eastward propagating pattern of
westerly and easterly wind anomalies was
evident starting in November 2023.
Recently this pattern has weakened.
Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)
Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
Since the beginning of the period, regions of
anomalous divergence (green shading) and
convergence (brown shading) have been
shifting eastward.
From early December 2023 to mid-March
2024, anomalous divergence persisted over
the central Pacific.
Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)
Favorable for precipitation (green shading)
Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
Through early March 2024, negative OLR
anomalies (more convection) persisted
over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean
Through December 2023, positive OLR
anomalies persisted around Indonesia.
From mid-December 2023 through March
2024, OLR anomalies shifted eastward
from the Indian Ocean/Indonesia to the
western Pacific/Date Line.
Since mid-May 2024, OLR was below-
average in the western equatorial Pacific
and above-average near the Date Line .
Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)
Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)
It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective.
Note: a different SST dataset is used for weekly SST monitoring (slides #4-9) and is
using OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021).
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,
these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950
The most recent ONI value
(February – April 2024) is 1.1ºC.
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7
2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6
2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8
2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5
2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2
2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0
2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8
2023 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0
2024 1.8 1.5 1.1
CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 9 May 2024
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is imminent, with ENSO-neutral favored in
April-June and May-July 2024. La Niña may develop in June-August 2024 (49% chance)
or July-September (69% chance).
IRI Pacific Niño 3.4
SST Model Outlook
The majority of models indicate
ENSO-neutral will persist through
July-September 2024. Thereafter,
most models indicate a transition
to La Niña around August-October
2024.
Figure prov ided by the International Research
Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 20 May 2024).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 27 May 2024
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño may transition
to ENSO-neutral in May, followed by a transition to La Niña around July-
September 2024.
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From late March through early May, below-
average heights and temperatures generally
persisted in parts of the western contiguous U.S.
Also, during this period, above-average heights
and temperatures have mostly persisted over the
central and/or eastern U.S.
1 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From late March through early May, below-
average heights and temperatures generally
persisted in parts of the western contiguous U.S.
Also, during this period, above-average heights
and temperatures have mostly persisted over the
central and/or eastern U.S.
2 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From late March through early May, below-
average heights and temperatures generally
persisted in parts of the western contiguous U.S.
Also, during this period, above-average heights
and temperatures have mostly persisted over the
central and/or eastern U.S.
3 of 3
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days
End Date: 25 May 2024
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)
1 of 2
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days
End Date: 25 May 2024
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)
2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
June – August 2024
The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.
Precipitation Temperature
Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño is transitioning toward ENSO-neutral.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western
and central Pacific Ocean, and below-average SSTs are emerging in the east-
central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in in the next month. La Niña
may develop in June-August 2024 (49% chance) or July-September (69%
chance).*
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
