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Forecast Study Problems

The document contains examples and problems related to forecasting techniques including moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustment. It includes steps to calculate forecasts using different alpha values in exponential smoothing and compares the results. It also demonstrates deseasonalizing a time series and using the results to forecast the demand in an upcoming time period.

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37 views5 pages

Forecast Study Problems

The document contains examples and problems related to forecasting techniques including moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustment. It includes steps to calculate forecasts using different alpha values in exponential smoothing and compares the results. It also demonstrates deseasonalizing a time series and using the results to forecast the demand in an upcoming time period.

Uploaded by

emirdurmaz200131
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Forecasting Chapter Study Problems

a) and b)

et
Forecast Period Actual

(86 + 75)/2 = 80.5 3 72 +8.5


(75 + 72)/2 = 73.5 4 83 -9.5
etc 77.5 5 132 -54.5
107.5 6 65 42.5
98.5 7 110 -11.5
87.5 8 90 -2.5
100.0 9 67 +33.0
78.5 10 92 -13.5
79.5 11 98 -18.5
95.0 12 73 +22.0

c) MAD = (216)/10 = 21.6


MSE = (7175)/10 = 717.5

MAPE = 100 1 ei  = 25.61



n
 D 
i
Ft = Dt-1 + (1-)Ft-1

a) FFeb = (.15)(23.3) + (.85)(25) = 24.745

FMarch = (.15)(72.3) + (.85)(24.745) = 31.88

FApr = (.15)(30.3) + (.85)(31.88) = 31.64

FMay = (.15)(15.5) + (.85)(31.63) = 29.22

b) FFeb = (.40)(23.3) + (.60)(25) = 24.32

FMarch = 43.47

FApr = 38.20

FMay = 29.12

c) Compute MSE for February through April:

Month Error (a) Error (b)


( = .15) ( = .40)

Feb 47.45 47.88


Mar 1.56 13.17
Apr 16.13 22.70
MSE = 838.04 993.74

 = .15 gave a better forecast

a) Week MA(3) Forecast

4 17.67
5 20.33
6 28.67
7 22.67
8 21.67

b) and c

Week ES(.15) Demand MA(3) |err| |err|

4 17.67 22 17.67 4.33 4.33


5 18.32 34 20.33 15.68 13.67
6 20.67 12 28.67 8.67 16.67
7 19.37 19 22.67 0.37 3.67
8 19.32 23 21.67 3.68 1.33

6.547540 7.934
MAD-ES MAD-MA

Based on these results, ES(.15) had a lower MAD over the five weeks

d) It is the same as the exponential smoothing forecast made in week 6 for the demand in
week 7, which is 19.37 from part c).
c) Predict the demand for the first quarter of year- 4 by using MA-6.

a)

Period (quarter) Demand


1 12 0.268657 S1 0.313433
2 25 0.559701 S2 0.761194
3 76 1.701493 S3 1.723881
4 52 1.164179 S4 1.201493
5 16 0.358209
6 32 0.716418
7 71 1.589552
8 62 1.38806
9 14 0.313433
10 45 1.007463
11 84 1.880597
12 47 1.052239

Average= 44.66667
b)

Period
(quarter) Demand Desasonal
1 12 38.285714
2 25 32.843137
3 76 44.08658
4 52 43.279503
5 16 51.047619
6 32 42.039216
7 71 41.186147
8 62 51.602484
9 14 44.666667
10 45 59.117647
11 84 48.727273
12 47 39.118012

c)

Period
(quarter) Desasonal
1 38.28571
2 32.84314
3 44.08658
4 43.2795
5 51.04762
6 42.03922
7 41.18615
8 51.60248
9 44.66667
10 59.11765
11 48.72727
12 39.11801

13 47.40304

Demand = (47,403) x 0,3134 =14,85

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